Pokémon Go |OT| Tap those mons!

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dyreschlock

Member
Oct 27, 2017
725
Takayama, Gifu, Japan
Shiny Rayquaza #4 this morning on my main account! Keep em comin’

Man, I got a shiny on my secondary account 4th raid, but since then nothing. My main account got one around #19? Then 25ish, 32ish, and now maybe 35?

I got a few boosted Rayquaza the other day from the typhoon too.

Edit: Ok, I'm at Seen 77 for my main, so not 35. More like 45.
 
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dyreschlock

Member
Oct 27, 2017
725
Takayama, Gifu, Japan
Well, *puts on Neil DeGrasse Tyson glasses... a 5% chance isn't the same as 1 out of 20.

When you do a raid, you have a 95% probability of not getting a shiny. If you want to calculate the probability you won't get a shiny in two raid, you'd multiple 95% by 95% and get 90.25%. So, rather than a 10% probability of finding a shiny, it'd be 9.75%. With 3 raids, 95% x 95% x 95% = 85.7375%, a 14.25ish% probability. With 10 raids, 59.87% no shiny. With 20 raids, 35.84% no shiny. So, with 20 raids, the probability of getting one is 64ish%. Pretty high, but not 100%.

With 30 raids, 21.46% no shiny. With 40 raids, 12.85% no shiny. After 40 raids, there's a probability that about 1 out of 10 people would not have gotten a shiny. Anyway, you can keep going, but it'll never be 100%. Of course, that's all just probability. Every time, it's 5%.

Pokemon Go Luck is weird anyway. I mean, how many Charge TMs have we wasted on a 50% chance. It's like Casino luck.
 
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GulAtiCa

GulAtiCa

Community Resettler
Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
3,014
OT2 is up!

 
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