kswiston

Member
Oct 24, 2017
3,693
In the past, the box office community has had a thread where we predict and discuss the big budget films that we think will fail to connect with audiences in the coming year. I don't think that anyone kept the tradition going last year on Era, so I decided to throw something up for 2019.


Recap of 2018:

Last year had some fierce competition within Disney, between the massively overbudget and underperforming Solo, A Wrinkle in Time, and The Nutcracker and the Four Realms. However, none of them had what it takes to keep the ultimate crown. Pending a few outstanding international territory releases, the 2018 championship is now down to two films:

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VS.
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The Situation in 2019

This year is packed with tentpole hopefuls, perhaps more than most recent years. However, with finite audience money, and some huge films like Avengers: Endgame and The Lion King soaking up box office dollars, not everything is going to land.

Here are some of the big budget (or potentially big budget in some cases) films releasing in the next 12 months:

Jan:
The Kid Who Would be King

Feb:
The Lego Movie 2
Alita: Battle Angel
How to Train Your Dragon 3

Mar:
Captain Marvel
Dumbo

Apr:
Shazam!
Hellboy
Avengers: Endgame

May:
Detective Pikachu
Aladdin
Godzilla King of Monsters

Jun:
Dark Phoenix
Secret Life of Pets 2
Men in Black International
Toy Story 4

Jul:
Spider-Man: Far From Home
The Lion King
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Aug:
New Mutants
Hobbs and Shaw
Artemis Fowl
Angry Birds Movie 2
Angel Has Fallen

Sep:
IT: Chapter 2
Spies in Disguise

Oct:
Gemini Man
Joker (reportedly mid budget)
The Addams Family

Nov:
Charlie's Angels
Terminator
Midway
Sonic the Hedgehog
Kingsman 3
Frozen 2

Dec:
Jumanji sequel
Cats
Star Wars Ep IX
1917
The Call of the Wild

There will probably be other films with a substantial budget (>$70M) that I am either forgetting, or haven't been titled yet, but that will give you an idea of what is coming out.

Which do you see landing with a crater? Which films that others think are destined to fail do you see being a surprise hit (Like The Meg this past year)?
 

hodayathink

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,078
Artemis Fowl is gonna be the annual Disney live action bomb. Other than that, I'm not sure yet.
 

LewieP

Member
Oct 26, 2017
18,268
Is it cheating to say New Mutants because I don't think it will get a full scale theatrical release and associated marketing spend? I doubt the budget is massive, but that's got "cut your losses" written all over it.

Same is true to a lesser extent for Dark Phoenix.
 

Dysun

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,991
Miami
I would put money on these bombing
The Kid Who Would be King
Hellboy
Men in Black International
New Mutants
Artemis Fowl
Charlie's Angels
Sonic the Hedgehog


Disappointing results, but not flat out bombs
Dark Phoenix
Terminator
Kingsman 3
 
Dec 12, 2017
9,686
Jan:
The Kid Who Would be King

Feb:
The Lego Movie 2
Alita: Battle Angel
How to Train Your Dragon 3

Mar:
Captain Marvel
Dumbo

Apr:
Shazam!
Hellboy
Avengers: Endgame

May:
Detective Pikachu
Aladdin
Godzilla King of Monsters

Jun:
Dark Phoenix
Secret Life of Pets 2
Men in Black International
Toy Story 4

Jul:
Spider-Man: Far From Home
The Lion King
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Aug:
New Mutants
Hobbs and Shaw
Artemis Fowl
Angry Birds Movie 2
Angel Has Fallen

Sep:
IT: Chapter 2
Spies in Disguise

Oct:
Gemini Man
Joker (reportedly mid budget)
The Addams Family

Nov:
Charlie's Angels
Terminator
Midway
Sonic the Hedgehog
Kingsman 3

Frozen 2

Dec:
Jumanji sequel
Cats
Star Wars Ep IX
1917
The Call of the Wild

My guesses.
 

TheLucasLite

Member
Aug 27, 2018
1,446
Artemis Fowl missed it's window of revelancy by like, a lot. So that one almost feels like a sure flop. The other one I'd put up there is probably Alita Battle Angel, I'm still not sure if the world is ready for Live Action Anime.
 

Slayven

Never read a comic in his life
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
94,479
Artemis Fowl
Gemini Man
Dark Pheonix
New Mutants
Aladdin will under perform
 

Elderly Parrot

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Aug 13, 2018
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Episode 9 will not outgrow Episode 8.
Artemis Fowl
X men
Gemini man
 

thekonamicode

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,738
The King Who Would Be King is going to be a HUGE bomb. A King Arthur tale, featuring children, in January?

HUGE bomb.
 

Platy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
28,141
Brazil
Alita Battle Angel, The X-Men Duo, The King Who Would Be King and ... MAYBE Sonic and Artemis Fowl

Animation always need to be BAAAAAAAAAAAD to be box office bombs since they usually have negative budgets
 

JediTimeBoy

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,818
Episode IX... ok not bomb, but I've got a feeling that people that like what Rian Johnson did with the series, won't be happy.

Rey will be Luke's daughter :p
 

Critch

Banned
Dec 10, 2017
1,360
Dark Phoenix is going to be rejected utterly, if it even gets released. Same with New Mutants. Alita will be saved by the WW gross. Shazam will do okay but nothing earth shattering and it along with Hellboy will completely disappear once Endgame snaps them away. Artemis will only be a huge bomb if it gets a big budget, which I hope Disney would be intelligent about. Terminator will do poorly along with Charlie's Angels. Midway is going to be an embarrasment along with Sonic. Cats will underwhelm Mary Poppins style, and Star Wars will do 600 million but slightly less than TLJ making "Fans" crow about their victory even as Disney buys another money bin.
 

sabrina

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
5,174
newport beach, CA
I can see Shazam underperforming for the same reason The Kid Who Would Be King will. "Young white boy takes charge of his magical destiny that he's earned because he stood up to school bullies" is a boring trope and not the audience draw it used to be.
 

Sgt. Demblant

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Banned
Oct 25, 2017
7,030
France
Didn't the Dark Phoenix trailer get record views in China or something? I think it will do okay business. It won't crater at the very least.

I'm gonna say either Dumbo or Aladdin (or maybe even both) is gonna be a dud for Disney. Same with whatever Artemis Fowl is but that's not exactly a risky prediction.

RIP Hellboy and Alita.

The Joker film is not aiming to be a crowd-pleasing blockbuster like Venom I don't think. So I expect relatively modest results but I think WB's strategy was always to position it as a prestige film, not a billion dollar phenomenon.

And I bet Lego 2 will be another relative Lego disappointment. At least internationally.
 
Oct 31, 2017
5,632
I was waiting for this and the predictions thread. Omission for Dark Phoenix and New Mutants because I don't think they'll be theatrically released and Disney will write off the 200MM or whatever and eventually release it on Disney+ as a legacy Marvel title. I'm also not sure Jumanji will have the legs and reception of its predecessor, but we'll see. Finally I'm deadly curious on the reception that Ep IX will get.

Anyways I predict a lot of bombas:
Jan:
The Kid Who Would be King

Feb:
Alita: Battle Angel

May:
Godzilla King of Monsters

Jun:
Men in Black International

Aug:
Artemis Fowl
Angry Birds Movie 2
Angel Has Fallen

Oct:
Gemini Man
The Addams Family

Nov:
Midway
Sonic the Hedgehog

Dec:
Cats
1917
The Call of the Wild
 

Benji

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Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,114
Alita
Dark Phoenix
Hellboy
Artemis Fowl

All seem super sketchy financially to me
 

Rvaan

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,734
I'm not sure how Sonic will be anything other than a bomb. Outside of that my guesses are Alita, Dumbo, and Artemis Fowl.
 

PhoncipleBone

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,357
Kentucky, USA
Dumbo will do decent numbers but be killed by its budget. And oh boy, from the writer of Transformers 2-4. Add all that on modern day Tim Burton and you got a stew going.

And Sonic is going to be a joke.
 
Oct 28, 2017
1,228
There's new Terminator movie? I thought they shelved them after the underperformance of the latest Terminator movie. I think this will bomb.
 

Rvaan

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,734
The only reason I left T6 off my list is because Cameron is actually involved with this one.
 

Mington

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Banned
Dec 22, 2018
1,429
Artemis Fowl, Dark Phoenix.

But I think there is something else. Something nobody expects to bomb.

Dumbo?
 

Kewlmyc

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
26,963
I'm shocked.

People actually expect Alita Battle Angel to do well?

I expected every post to mention it. A live action anime adaption starring uncanny valley? Has "disaster" written all over it.
 

HotHamBoy

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
16,423
Glass

Dumbo is going to surprise everyone with its success, regardless of it being good or bad.
 

Benji

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Oct 25, 2017
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I'm shocked.

People actually expect Alita Battle Angel to do well?

At the risk of this being hilarious in retrospect when it makes $800m globally

Every time the trailer has played in any theater I'm in the response from the audience is dead silence
 

Rune Walsh

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Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,169
Artemis Fowl is gonna be the annual Disney live action bomb. Other than that, I'm not sure yet.

Absolutely. I'm a librarian and I have no idea how this film is so late to the table. No one has read those books in seven years.

I have no idea how Dumbo will make any money either. Who asked for that?
 

Boxy Brown

Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,523
I can see Shazam underperforming for the same reason The Kid Who Would Be King will. "Young white boy takes charge of his magical destiny that he's earned because he stood up to school bullies" is a boring trope and not the audience draw it used to be.
That's not even half the story of Shazam :/
 

MMarston

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Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,605
I'm not sure what got into Disney's mind when they greenlit Artemis Fowl considering they missed the Harry Potter boom of the early/mid-2000s, but hey, gotta keep that track record of financial disappointments I guess.

Episode 9

Not sure JJ will recover from Rian Johnson's financial collapse.
I completely agree wholeheartedly.
 

Mington

Banned for use of alt account
Banned
Dec 22, 2018
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Battle Angel I think is the sleeper hit of the year
 

Zubz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,565
no
Sonic's not going to bomb. It's going to be abysmal, but it won't bomb.

Absolutely. I'm a librarian and I have no idea how this film is so late to the table. No one has read those books in seven years.

I have no idea how Dumbo will make any money either. Who asked for that?

Everyone read it in high school, so it's sure to be a draw 10 years later! Just ask Life of Pi & A Wrinkle in Time.
 

DMVfan123

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
7,365
Virginia
Alita
Dark Phoenix
Artemis Fowl
Hellboy
Some random big-budget movie that ERA loves but only makes $200-250 million worldwide (probably Alita LOL)