Looking at all rumors and information about the Nintendo Switch and the history of Nintendo revisions has me pretty confident that a full system revision (NEW MODEL, whether or not it has better performance) will happen this August.
Why the timing makes sense:
A mutually beneficial agreement for Nvidia and Nintendo? This is talking about Nvidia's Tegra line not having a win, but there is another reason that Nvidia gave Nintendo a deal that makes Semi Accurate question if Nvidia actually "Won" in the agreement. The other reason is in 2013, Nvidia made a commitment with TSMC to produce "X" number of 20nm chips, This high volume production allowed TSMC to push for the 20nm process node, process shrinks cost a great deal of money, so the commitment was vital from Nvidia and had to be a fairly huge contract.
Thraktor, came up with the idea that Nvidia likely made a deal with Nintendo because of this, and pointed out how AMD had been fined for $320 Million dollars for pulling out of a commitment for wafer production from global foundaries 5 or so years back. Nvidia had received no wins for the X1 except for Google Pixel C (tablet) and some other niche devices, producing 10s of millions of Nvidia Shield devices was just not going to happen, so Nvidia told the Tegra team that they needed to find a console win for X1. At the time, I was told by someone that Nvidia was on the hook for 20 Million 20nm wafer chips, considering Switch's success, 20 Million Switch units is coming up very fast. On March 31st, Nintendo Switch shipped 17.79 Million Switch consoles, and should be hovering around ~19 Million shipped as of today, with 100s of thousands in production atm.
Mid March, data miners leaked the Nvidia Tegra 214 chip reference in firmware 5.0.
(Not going into speculation on this chip just yet, but seems to have a whole new PCB, likely meaning newer components beyond just a SoC, and 8GB RAM).
Hackers also disclosed to Nvidia and Nintendo this month, the hardware vulnerability and agreed not to disclose it until June this year, though obviously it was disclosed early, anonymously. (This could mean that T214 was not produced simply to solve a hardware vulnerability with future Switch devices, but likely has new hardware, which is supported in the thread above.)
The Nintendo 3DS originally was suppose to launch Holiday 2010, but was delayed until Spring 2011, the 3DS XL launched July and August 2012 in Japan and the West respectively. (Again, 18 Months later)
The Nintendo Switch was suppose to launch Holiday 2016, but because of software not being ready, they pushed it to March 2017. 18 Months afterwards, would be August 2018 this year, following the same time frame and path that 3DS followed.
While September would make sense thanks to the launch of their Internet services, August would not disrupt this idea IMO, as getting the device into as many gamers hands for a more positive experience is going to only reap higher praise in the end.
Here is Digital Foundry talking about what a revision could mean for Switch and it's entire library of games, including those already released.
Why the timing makes sense:
- Exhibit A: Nvidia's 20nm commitment should be resolved.
A mutually beneficial agreement for Nvidia and Nintendo? This is talking about Nvidia's Tegra line not having a win, but there is another reason that Nvidia gave Nintendo a deal that makes Semi Accurate question if Nvidia actually "Won" in the agreement. The other reason is in 2013, Nvidia made a commitment with TSMC to produce "X" number of 20nm chips, This high volume production allowed TSMC to push for the 20nm process node, process shrinks cost a great deal of money, so the commitment was vital from Nvidia and had to be a fairly huge contract.
Thraktor, came up with the idea that Nvidia likely made a deal with Nintendo because of this, and pointed out how AMD had been fined for $320 Million dollars for pulling out of a commitment for wafer production from global foundaries 5 or so years back. Nvidia had received no wins for the X1 except for Google Pixel C (tablet) and some other niche devices, producing 10s of millions of Nvidia Shield devices was just not going to happen, so Nvidia told the Tegra team that they needed to find a console win for X1. At the time, I was told by someone that Nvidia was on the hook for 20 Million 20nm wafer chips, considering Switch's success, 20 Million Switch units is coming up very fast. On March 31st, Nintendo Switch shipped 17.79 Million Switch consoles, and should be hovering around ~19 Million shipped as of today, with 100s of thousands in production atm.
- Exhibit B: Nvidia Tegra T214 will be used in the near future for Nintendo Switch family of devices.
Mid March, data miners leaked the Nvidia Tegra 214 chip reference in firmware 5.0.
(Not going into speculation on this chip just yet, but seems to have a whole new PCB, likely meaning newer components beyond just a SoC, and 8GB RAM).
Hackers also disclosed to Nvidia and Nintendo this month, the hardware vulnerability and agreed not to disclose it until June this year, though obviously it was disclosed early, anonymously. (This could mean that T214 was not produced simply to solve a hardware vulnerability with future Switch devices, but likely has new hardware, which is supported in the thread above.)
- Exhibit C: History of handheld revisions.
The Nintendo 3DS originally was suppose to launch Holiday 2010, but was delayed until Spring 2011, the 3DS XL launched July and August 2012 in Japan and the West respectively. (Again, 18 Months later)
The Nintendo Switch was suppose to launch Holiday 2016, but because of software not being ready, they pushed it to March 2017. 18 Months afterwards, would be August 2018 this year, following the same time frame and path that 3DS followed.
- Exhibit D: Nintendo's hardware goals for FY 2018.
While September would make sense thanks to the launch of their Internet services, August would not disrupt this idea IMO, as getting the device into as many gamers hands for a more positive experience is going to only reap higher praise in the end.
- Speculation on new hardware specs? This is not my prediction.
Here is Digital Foundry talking about what a revision could mean for Switch and it's entire library of games, including those already released.
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