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PS4 sell through at 91.6 million as of Dec 31st 2018. Spider-Man sell through over 9 million. (Sony PR)
- Thread starter Guymelef
- Start date
I think people are also forgetting that PS2 solve well into the PS3 lifespan because PS3 was such a shit show.
PS4 will probably approach north of 130M when it's all said and done, but the situation from PS2 > PS3 and PS4 > PS5 is completely different. PS2 had the benefit of a cheap, tiny console at a very low price when it's successor was a monster with an insane price tag. PS2s were still selling like mad during the PS3's first holiday season.
PS4 will probably approach north of 130M when it's all said and done, but the situation from PS2 > PS3 and PS4 > PS5 is completely different. PS2 had the benefit of a cheap, tiny console at a very low price when it's successor was a monster with an insane price tag. PS2s were still selling like mad during the PS3's first holiday season.
PS consoles generally have 10 year life cycles before Sony terminates them. The PS2, the best selling one was on the market for 13. the PS4 has been on the market for about 6 holiday seasons, racking up about 91 million units.
being conservative, it has 4 more holiday seasons/years in the tank. 125 million means only about 34 million more consoles sold over the next 4 years. Given that next year is going to be 14 million units at least, that's 20 million over the following 3, or a massive dropoff to 6.6 million units a year on average from 2020-2023.
That's a Wii-like collapse and doesn't seem realistic, all things considered. Keep in mind the PS4 has been selling like this at $299 MSRP. It's EXTREMELY unusual for a PS console to be selling that close to launch price 6 holiday seasons in.
This ignores that the 360 and the Wii were both pretty cheap consoles with a decent amount of software. The Wii in particular was selling like gangbusters for the first 3 years or so on the market. Consumers had a lot of alternatives that weren't the PS3. The PS2 kept selling because it had an incredibly massive library of extremely cheap, extremely fun software. You could get fistfuls of PS2 games pretty much everywhere for virtually nothing for years after next gen was on the market. if all you were playing was madden and FIFA and weren't all that concerned about how pretty it was, the PS2 just kept right on getting those, too.
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Yikes, so defensive!
I read it on a reddit thread the other day. I'm playing through bloodborne now so calm down.
From googling it, it appears boost mode doesn't really help with frame pacing but frame rate is a bit better in certain areas
You have to take into account that PS4's last 3 years (give or take) will be cannibalized by PS5 sales, specially if PS5 supports BC.
I guess it will depend greatly on Sony dropping the PS4 to $199 when PS5 releases, but I don't see it. Maybe in PS4's last year of production. I don't know how much the PS4 will end up selling, but I don't think 35 million more is THAT low. I may be wrong of course.
It probably will have a huge dropoff after 2020 due to the PS5. I'm expecting:
2019: 15-16 million
2020: 12-14 million
2021: 6-7 million
2022+2023: 3-4 million
Then retired.
Lower end LTD: 127, Upper end: 132
Why would sony suddenly retire a profitable system that's still selling 4 million units a year? They haven't even officially retired the Vita, and that thing sold only around 15 million units over about 7 years.
PS5 will surely launch not after 2020. I was thinking something like this:
2019 - 15 million / 106.6 million
2020 - 9 million / 115.6 million <--- PS5 release date
2021 - 6 million / 121.6 million
2022 - 3 million / 124.6 million
2023 - 1 million / 125.6 million
Discontinued in 2024
EDIT: 2020 is the most important year to see how much it drop with the PS5, if it manage to sell 10-12 million that year then it will surpass 130 million.
I know :)
I look forward to the day when PS4 becomes the best selling console in history and the resulting implosion of Era. Lol
Who made these graphs?
7.5 + 14.8 + 17.7 + 20 +19 +17.5 = 96.5
ಠ_ಠ
That kind of collapse isn't realistic. the PS5 when it launches will be highly priced, supply constrained and low on system selling software. The kind of people buying a PS5 in launch years are also not the kind of people buying the PS4 around year 9 or 10. They're a different audience. If the PS4 never dropped it's price you might have a point, but that kind of complete collapse isn't realistic when Sony hasn't lowered MSRP to $249, $199, $149, or lower to hit the casual market.
The **PS3** was cannibalized by the PS4, but you have to consider that the PS3 was dominated by the 360 in the US, and sony wanted to terminate production for that thing ASAP because it was difficult to cost reduce. That's not the case for the PS4 which has a much bigger share of the western market, and wasn't the case for the PS2.
The PS1 stayed in production from 1994 until 2006. The PS2 remained in production from 2000 until 2013. The PS3 remained in production from 2006 only until about 2016.
Given that the PS4 is selling leaps and bounds past where the PS1 and PS3 both were, a 12-13 year production cycle for it at least seems realistic. it won't be cut off at the knees in 10 years as the PS3 was.
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Fiscal year shipments (also year 6 is projected not actual shipments), not yearly sales.
And considering Sony have already said they have made more money with PS4 then the ps2 which shows how different the console space is now with ps+ and psn,im sure they are extremely happy.
Right. revenue streams from digital sales, PSN subscriptions, and PSNOW mean that Sony has an incentive to keep the PS4 on the market as long as possible. It's probably the biggest reason the Vita is still not completely dead since almost all sales for that are coming from the PSN store and have for a long time.
I did. These are shipment numbers for each fiscal year. FY 6 is not actual because it's the last forecast made by Sony which covers the time frame between March 2018 - March 2019.
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Look to his previous chart post on the same page for the explanation. It's using Sony's fiscal year projection of 17.5m for the last year on the chart.
Only because the official price is 299$ doesn't mean people interested for a lower price haven't already bought it yet.
In the US it dropped the price for 199$ for black friday in 2017/2018, but most important in Europe you can easy find a PS4 for 249/199€ with some promotions, it also depend on the country for sure. Here in Italy every store i see have a PS4 at 249€ with a game bundled.
So an official pricedrop isn't going to give the insane boost that a console like PS2 had years ago, it will of course help PS4 sales for sure but personally i don't expect PS4 selling >10 million in a year with PS5.
The PS4 sold out immediately at $199 this black friday. People were going crazy over those spidey bundles and they were quickly impossible to find.
edit: remember this infamous photo:
an official pricedrop won't give an 'insane boost' (it never does) but it does bring in the lagging tail of the market that does not buy consoles at $299. There are a LOT of these people as anyone who has ever worked in electronics retail will tell you that do not and cannot buy the latest and greatest.
I expect a life cycle closer to this at minimum:
only with a lifecycle closer to 12 or 13 years than 10, with Sony selling 2-3 million units a year until Sony pulls the system in 2025 or 2026. As long as theres some profit to be made, they're not going to pull the system, and you can see this with the vita.
Or to put things another way, the PS2 sold 50m+ units on the market AFTER the PS3, 360, and Wii launched. If the PS4 sells HALF that well with a Ps5 launching in 2020, it still sells somewhere around 145m units.
It sells at least 140m.
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Not only that, but the incentive for Sony to continue supporting PS4 is considerably higher than it was with PS3 because the attach rate for PS+ and other services is much higher. The profit they're raking in on those recurring subscription fees is high, and they'll continue to produce the PS4 at least 2-3 years into the PS5's life cycle.
I think we'll absolutely see a $150 PS4 on the market at some point, and it'll sell well enough to make Sony a good chunk of change on attached software / subscription services. Hell I wouldn't be surprised to see Sony release a PS4 that is specifically marketed and tailored to PS Now, with a larger hard drive and smaller form factor.
NSMBU
Animal Crossing
Pokemon
Luigi's Mansion
Fire Emblem
These are the notable titles we know of so far that are confirmed for 2019
Agree completely. PSN/PSNOW provide so much revenue on the backend that did not exist for the PS2 (and did not exist to the same extent to the PS3, because of free online) that Sony can easily afford to take a larger loss on hardware if it makes sense to do so.
The PS3 hard as it was to cost reduce with the cell still got down to $149, though I think it took the "super slim" 12GB to do it. We could see a $99 PS4.
I followed up on that. False info on the bloodborne subreddit I was looking at the other day. My bad
12GB super slim was $199. Any $149 you may have seen was after it was discontinued.
As for its price it wasn't cell their problem was nvidia and the RSX. Despite being old nvidia doesn't want to come down on price. Same reason MS ditched the OG Xbox so quickly, couldn't make a profit.
I honestly think it'll surpass the PS2, only because the library of games will continue to grow well into the PS5's life. It'll take close to zero effort for devs to support both the PS4 and the PS5.
The only thing is if you're a studio who's developing a AAA, graphic:s/resource intensive game then you'll have to make a choice to leave behind the 100+ million install base (which some of the next round of Sony Studio's games will do- Horizon 2 and GoW 2).
A lot of games these days scale from mobile, to Switch, all the way to crazy PCs specs, most Indy games don't require a PS5 base spec to play.
Sony is going to continue to sell a base PS4 speced machine for a loooong time. There probably will be new versions of the hardware too (super slim, no optical drive, stuff like that to drive the price down so people buy games because that's where the profits are).
Clear cut, generational cutoffs are over- it's all about the platforms, libraries and ecosystems now.
The only thing is if you're a studio who's developing a AAA, graphic:s/resource intensive game then you'll have to make a choice to leave behind the 100+ million install base (which some of the next round of Sony Studio's games will do- Horizon 2 and GoW 2).
A lot of games these days scale from mobile, to Switch, all the way to crazy PCs specs, most Indy games don't require a PS5 base spec to play.
Sony is going to continue to sell a base PS4 speced machine for a loooong time. There probably will be new versions of the hardware too (super slim, no optical drive, stuff like that to drive the price down so people buy games because that's where the profits are).
Clear cut, generational cutoffs are over- it's all about the platforms, libraries and ecosystems now.
MSRP was $199, but there were sales dropping the 12GB to $149 several times on the PS3 before it was discontinued, though obviously evidence of those sales are hard to find now.
That was a black friday 2013 ad. https://heavy.com/games/2013/11/black-friday-2013-top-10-best-ps3ps-vita-gaming-deals/
The PS3 wasn't discontinued for 3 more years.
$149 12GB PS3's weren't that difficult to find, especially around holiday season.
As for the cell I remember it was a pain in the ass for Sony to keep fabricating those, but I think you're right- the RSX was the bigger problem in cost reducing the PS3 since Nvidia would NOT play ball.
Indeed and more power to Sony. I'm eager to see what a rich Sony can do in the industry. I mean we have MS but they are still trying to grow the brand and moves like buying Minecraft doesn't sit right with me. I would love for a day where I can sign up for live on my Playstation hardware I think services is where MS excel at but I've never been into their hardware which is why I've never been an Xbox fan. But yeah, PS5 coming off the back of PS4 should be a shoe-in success at least for the early years. Common sense, release sequels to all these huge games from the current gen and make another Pc-lite console for an affordable price. I wouldn't rock the formula too much for this coming gen.
Sales aren't a price cut though. The message I quoted said it got to $149 like it was official msrp. Now if they're saying $99 on Black Friday? I could see that. Also lol at that ad showing wrong model of PS3.MSRP was $199, but there were sales dropping the 12GB to $149 several times on the PS3 before it was discontinued, though obviously evidence of those sales are hard to find now.
That was a black friday 2013 ad. https://heavy.com/games/2013/11/black-friday-2013-top-10-best-ps3ps-vita-gaming-deals/
The PS3 wasn't discontinued for 3 more years.
$149 12GB PS3's weren't that difficult to find, especially around holiday season.
As for the cell I remember it was a pain in the ass for Sony to keep fabricating those, but I think you're right- the RSX was the bigger problem in cost reducing the PS3 since Nvidia would NOT play ball.
I read what you wrote, I don't think you understand the actual argument. Nobody is putting words in your mouth, you're misunderstanding your own implications. When I said "define" I mean you're talking about this casual audience that are buying consoles and what they are buying, their purchasing habits are what this entire conversation is about. I'm saying how you're describing their habits and what they are based on is flawed and doesn't make sense.
"On top of this, one of the reasons PS2 kept selling (1/3 of its total AFTER PS3 was out) was due to the PS3 being such a massive failure out of the gate. PS3 and 360 were too expensive and needed a new TV to be played. So a lot of people went 'guess I'll get a PS2 for a couple of years'."
The PS3 was too expensive, therefore they weren't in the market for one. These aren't initial buyers, these are price conscious buyers that bought a Wii or waited until the price dropped, that is entirely my point. Any body who was in the market for an HD console bought a PS3 or 360. You weren't in the market for an HD console (meaning what you actually bought) and then purchased a PS2.
And then you start making all these assumptions about the effect the economy and generational transition has had on console sales. To the effect of the Switch and PS4 being a roaring success. If the effect is to be felt, it was hasn't happened with these particular platforms yet. These sound like arguments people used to make when they were saying console were dying (all the casuals have left and are never coming back etc.). The PS4 was $200 for how many days in 2017? How many days in 2018? How many consoles were sold when it was those prices? How much stock was left? Yes the PS4 is down this year, compared to last, yet it is still above Sony's expectations. It is also STILL $300. A cheaper console lowers the barrier to entry....that is all this is about. The PS3 being dropped early does not define the PS4's potential, because it has been a far more successful console. That is it. That is this whole thing lol.
This is interesting as well. Will Sony basically reformat PS4 into a small base to sell alongside PS5?
1) Same specs new OS and no drive
2) Portable tablet form PS4 when $$ available
3) Slimmer Pro model new design
I'm basically ready for next gen only because I feel like the big jump and norm of leaving everything behind is over. I just hope DS4 is still supported.
They could make a PS4P that works like the Switch in 2-3 years and just count those in overall PS4 numbers.
It was a temporary price cut across multiple retailers. happened more than a few times. That's a walmart ad but I know I saw the same thing at Target and possibly gamestop.
Much like the $199 spidey bundle, a temporary cut to MSRP for the holiday season can definitely be official- and we all know that the PS3 did not have $50 worth of margin on it (console margins at retail is typically $0) for all those retailers to suddenly and repeatedly take a bath on it. That promo was done in partnership with Sony.
The PS4 and PS5 will run the same "OS", there's no way they're going scrap and require everyone to recreate all their streaming apps and services for a new platform.
It's just a sale for a week or two scattered throughout the year. It's like saying PS4 is $199. It's not. If the original post I quoted meant PS4 could get to $99 on Black Friday in a few years then I could see that happening but it won't ever be permanently that price.
The point was saying that the PS3 managed to hit a $149 price point on the 12GB, which it did- Sony just did not keep it there. It was holiday only. Similarly Sony found a way to hit a $199 price point on the PS4- it just chose not to do so for very long as a limited time promotion.
We're talking "what can be done from a business perspective to push units" not "what was the permanent MSRP on the console."
The original post you quoted was by me, and meant to be exactly "sony will be able to hit $99 on the PS4 as sony was able to hit $149 on the PS3" which if it was as a temporary holiday price cut (because $99 is REALLY rock bottom pricing for that system- A $99 Dreamcast in 2000 or so would cost $150 in today's money) then so be it. Since a very large percentage of the people buying these systems buy them around the holidays anyway, a holiday price cut is nearly as effective as a permanent one for the majority of people picking up the system.
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I believe 2019 will be another strong year for the PS4, even if there is another slight dip in sales. I mean its kind of crazy that people are expecting sales to be close to peak year when it just finished its SIXTH holiday on the market.
Sony doesnt seem to be in a race to sell as many PS4s as they can before the PS5, that alone says they plan to keep it around and support it into the first few years of next gen. And with good reason since there will undoubtedly be a demand from late adopters for it.
The fact is the PS4 has never been $249 more than a few of weeks so Id love to see how well it performs at that price given it sold tons at $299 last year
Sony doesnt seem to be in a race to sell as many PS4s as they can before the PS5, that alone says they plan to keep it around and support it into the first few years of next gen. And with good reason since there will undoubtedly be a demand from late adopters for it.
The fact is the PS4 has never been $249 more than a few of weeks so Id love to see how well it performs at that price given it sold tons at $299 last year
"Followed up on that?" You didn't edit your original false claim, and in fact, you went after another poster that corrected you.
It's just another example of bad-faith posting.
I wouldn't count on PS5 using the same OS as PS4. I depends on what new features they want to add to PS5 and how flexible the current OS is to those sort of changes. I would rather have a new OS that brought a new generation of features than to be tied to the old OS. PS4 brought us share play, built in streaming, communities, events, etc....I'm very interested in seeing what non-gaming features the PS5 brings.
For how long it took them to get the PS4 to have a feature set on-par with the PS3, I don't want to sit through another few years of updates to get to feature parity of PS4 on PS5. It doesn't make sense– especially if they share a common architecture hardware-wise. Not saying the PS5 won't have "exclusive" features, but overall they'll be the same.
I would agree. I recall that about 1/3 of PS2's sales occurred after the PS3 was released. They were able to take advantage of a cheap system and the fact that PS3 sales started off poorly, but PS4 is not going to become as cheap as PS2 and PS5 is going to sell strongly out of the gate. Plus, it's true that a lot of people bought the PS2 for a DVD player, and Xbox was just starting at that time and didn't sell very well, while Nintendo was at its then low point with the Gamecube.
I agree with this– I even see Sony making a few more revisions of the PS4 hardware to get the price way down even further– it will still be a great Indy/Fortnite/CoD/Fifa machine in years to come. They'l keep it around as long as people continue to buy games from PSN and invest in their library on PlayStation. Then when the time is right, those people will "upgrade" to a cheaper PS5 and carry over everything… meanwhile we'll see a PS5 Pro at the high end and the cycle will continue.