PS4 sell through at 91.6 million as of Dec 31st 2018. Spider-Man sell through over 9 million. (Sony PR)

[Manmademan]

Switch is unique. The price is more home console like but the form factor / value proposition is totally new. Pretty hard to fit the Switch in one category.

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I'd count the switch as a console. Yeah, you can take the thing on the go, but the price point is at "console" price points, and since it is designed to dock to a TV, it falls into the "one per household" category. It's not uncommon to have 2 or 3 kids playing games on one switch in a household. That's pretty unusual for a pure handheld like the GBA/DS/Etc.

most kids would want their own device if it was strictly a handheld, and the price points of those things is low to encourage that.

 

[D.Lo]

Could you please elaborate on those 500m consoles? Just curious. Are handhelds counted? Regarding home-consoles the
market share wasn't thaaat bad (80m 360, 80m PS3, 100m Wii = 260m) ...not counting the roughly 50m PS2s that were sold between late 2005 and 2012. What I'm trying to say, if you put PS2 sales in the context of all consoles sold between 2000 and late 2005, the market-share will also look much lower than some might expect:
PS2 100m+ appr. 50m Gamecube + Xbox + some pennies from Dreamcast ~ 70% (out o' my ass). Now put that in context with
the 100m-150m+ (rough estimate) handhelds Nintendo sold in that timeframe and you'll end up around above 30% but below 50%

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Yes including handhelds, which are consoles. Of DS/PSP/360/Wii/PS3 PS3 had ~16% marketshare. Of GBA/PS2/GCN/Xbox PS2 had ~55% marketshare (I forgot Dreamcast, but at 9m sold, 1/3 of those at post-discontinuation clearenece prices, it doesn't change too much).

But yes 'generations' are slippery when looking at it like that, as roughly 1/3 of PS2 was sold after the next gen started. Same with PS1, which was actually evenly matched with the N64 for several years in the west but sold another 30-40 million post-Dreamcast/PS2 as a budget kids system, so the end totals look more blown out than they were during the gen proper. It's never clean for comparisons.

 

[Marcus Brutalius]

Switch is unique. The price is more home console like but the form factor / value proposition is totally new. Pretty hard to fit the Switch in one category.

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The Switch is also unique because we can't put it in the context of a separate Nintendo home-console and a separate handheld anymore.
The Switch will most likely end up around 100m-120m units LTD. The 3DS did 70m and the WiiU 15m = 85m
But I'd say it's not the Switch itself doing the work here. If the WiiU wasn't that colossal fuck-up and just a WiiHD maybe doing 30m-50m in a worst-case scenario, we'd be looking at roughly the same market-share for Nintendo.
How much did Wii and DS do in the timeframe between 2005 and let's say 2012? Moren than 250m, right?

 

[jroc74]

That's insane.... So the top 3 selling consoles of all time will be PS2 PS4 PS1 with the Switch taking one of those spots later on probably.

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Nah, I'm talking about consoles. Maybe the switch doesn't count as a console but a portable.

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Gotta remember to be specific or folks will always bring up handhelds....when its probably inferred that you meant home consoles. lol

And reading the past few pages....seems I made it just in time for the PS3 downplay, the industry is on a decline posts.....

I'll say this, I'm happy the Switch is a success, it seemed to calm some of the concerns some ppl had about console sales declining.

 

[Hieroph]

The 3DS did 70m and the WiiU 15m = 85m

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3DS was at 73.5 million shipped as of September and it's probably already past 75 million by now.

Wii U is at 13.5 million shipped.

Since 3DS will still sell for a while, 90 million is basically a lock if you want to combine them. And who knows how long it will still go for.

 

[Manmademan]

The Switch is also unique because we can't put it in the context of a separate Nintendo home-console and a separate handheld anymore.
The Switch will most likely end up around 100m-120m units LTD. The 3DS did 70m and the WiiU 15m = 85m

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This is...very odd logic.

It does not appear the Switch is going to be able to easily cost reduce itself down to the level the 3DS/2DS did. At all. The switch is a fairly pricey piece of kit in comparison to that thing. "The 3DS did 70m" is a fairly meaningless statement there. As it stands, the Switch is not the kind of platform where you'll typically see 2 or 3 per household. It's simply too costly and the ability to dock the system to a television is a deterrent.

Second- only nintendo die hards bought the WiiU and virtually no one else. You'd have to imagine the crossover between 3DS owners and WiiU owners would be 100%. It's the same audience buying both systems. Stacking the total sales between the two doesn't really work.

 

[Kerotan]

Not seen any updates on PSVR, it probably had a decent holiday with all the bundles on sale. It was at 3+ Million in August, so it's probably around 3.5 million, maybe getting closer to 4 million if it did really well over Xmas.

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If it was at 3m in August there's no way it's only at 3.5m now. I imagine we'll get the numbers from their next fiscal report. I'm hoping they've had decent growth.

 

[SinCityAssassin]

If it was at 3.5m in August there's no way it's only at 3.5m now. I imagine we'll get the numbers from their next fiscal report. I'm hoping they've had decent growth.

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He did not say 3.5 million ltd in August just +3 million and possibly 3.5 million by end of holidays.
Also, at least in the US, I hear holidays numbers weren't anything to right home about.

 

[Kerotan]

He did not say 3.5 million ltd in August just +3 million and possibly 3.5 million by end of holidays.
Also, at least in the US, I hear holidays numbers weren't anything to right home about.

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That was a typo. I meant to say 3m+ in August. Anyway I'd be absolutely shocked if they only moved 500k or so since then. I just can't comprehend that situation and from what I seen the VR did decent this Christmas.

 

[Yautja_Warrior]

If it was at 3m in August there's no way it's only at 3.5m now. I imagine we'll get the numbers from their next fiscal report. I'm hoping they've had decent growth.

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It would be great if it made it over 4 million, but with no announcements from Sony here and VR selling slower than standard consoles, my guess is it hasn't quite made it to 4 million yet unfortunately.

Hopefully they do announce 4+ million sold soon though, I love VR and hope it continues to grow as fast as possible.

 

[Hieroph]

Second- only nintendo die hards bought the WiiU and virtually no one else. You'd have to imagine the crossover between 3DS owners and WiiU owners would be 100%. It's the same audience buying both systems. Stacking the total sales between the two doesn't really work.

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Nah, no two systems work like that. Of course you've got overlap between 3DS and Wii U install base, but one is a handheld and one is a console. One is successful, inexpensive and still available, one flopped, never came down in price permanently and isn't even available anymore.

Things like this mean that a lot of the people getting a 3DS or 2DS and the people getting a Wii U are different. Basically a 3DS or 2DS is the handheld to get, and with that cheap entry price it has drawn in a lot of people who wouldn't even care about Wii U. But then there are also people who don't care about handhelds, so even a Wii U is an easier sell to them than a 3DS or 2DS.

There's 0 reason to believe 3DS and Wii U have 100% the same audience. And at the end of the day, those are separate systems with separate game lineups, so even someone who owns both will buy games for both systems. The dual system setup didn't work out for Nintendo this time round because of how badly Wii U flopped, but when they work they can be incredibly successful, like the Wii + DS dual combo.

 

[Manmademan]

Nah, no two systems work like that. Of course you've got overlap between 3DS and Wii U install base, but one is a handheld and one is a console. One is successful, inexpensive and still available, one flopped, never came down in price permanently and isn't even available anymore.

Things like this mean that a lot of the people getting a 3DS or 2DS and the people getting a Wii U are different. Basically a 3DS or 2DS is the handheld to get, and with that cheap entry price it has drawn in a lot of people who wouldn't even care about Wii U. But then there are also people who don't care about handhelds, so even a Wii U is an easier sell to them than a 3DS or 2DS.

There's 0 reason to believe 3DS and Wii U have 100% the same audience. And at the end of the day, those are separate systems with separate game lineups, so even someone who owns both will buy games for both systems. The dual system setup didn't work out for Nintendo this time round because of how badly Wii U flopped, but when they work they can be incredibly successful, like the Wii + DS dual combo.

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On the contrary. 100% crossover is a certainty.

The WiiU was such terrible hardware the ONLY people who bought that were the ones so deeply invested in the Nintendo ecosystem they'd buy pretty much anything.

The 3DS as the successor to the DS had a very large percentage of Nintendo's franchises there and ONLY there, such Mario Kart 7, Animal Crossing: New Leaf, Pokemon X&Y, and New Super Mario Bros. 2. Hell, the Mario Kart and Pokemon 3DS games sold more copies than the WiiU sold units total.

Given that the Wii was dead by 2012 (though indisputably had serious droughts long before this) and the WiiU tanked out of the gate as a nintendo fan you were literally playing nothing from 2013 to 2017 unless you bought a 3DS.

A scenario where someone thats interested in the games Nintendo makes and drops $299 to $349 on a WiiU (which never really had a price drop) but skips buying a 3DS/2DS that could be had as cheaply as $80 when nintendo games were found nowhere else for 4 years is such an edge case its barely worth entertaining as a possibility.

And to top it off, the WiiU's sole selling point was the gamepad that allowed off screen play locally. It was targeted directly at their handheld audience.

 

[Hieroph]

On the contrary. 100% crossover is a certainty.

The WiiU was such terrible hardware the ONLY people who bought that were the ones so deeply invested in the Nintendo ecosystem they'd buy pretty much anything.

The 3DS as the successor to the DS had a very large percentage of Nintendo's franchises there and ONLY there, such Mario Kart 7, Animal Crossing: New Leaf, Pokemon X&Y, and New Super Mario Bros. 2. Hell, the Mario Kart and Pokemon 3DS games sold more copies than the WiiU sold units total.

Given that the Wii was dead by 2012 (though indisputably had serious droughts long before this) and the WiiU tanked out of the gate as a nintendo fan you were literally playing nothing from 2013 to 2017 unless you bought a 3DS.

A scenario where someone thats interested in the games Nintendo makes and drops $299 to $349 on a WiiU (which never really had a price drop) but skips buying a 3DS/2DS that could be had as cheaply as $80 when nintendo games were found nowhere else for 4 years is such an edge case its barely worth entertaining as a possibility.

And to top it off, the WiiU's sole selling point was the gamepad that allowed off screen play locally. It was targeted directly at their handheld audience.

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Now you're talking just 100% bullshit.

You know for yourself that's not true.

 

[Manmademan]

Now you're talking just 100% bullshit.

You know for yourself that's not true.

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Which part of that is inaccurate?

The WiiU being wildly expensive hardware catering only to nintendo fans? Because thats not really a debate. No game that wasn't developed by Nintendo themselves sold over a million copies.

The WiiU having severe droughts, a weak launch, an even weaker library, and an early death? That part is also demonstrably true. Even among Nintendo's own titles the only things that sold any copies were Mario Kart, a handful of mario platformers and Splatoon.

You know as well as i do that the same exact people paying $300-350 to play mario kart 8 were the same people buying mario kart 7 on 3DS.

Stop kidding yourself.

Nintendo has a loyal following, mostly because no one else is making the family friendly mascot games that they do. You might get one from Sony once in a blue moon, but that's it.

The Nintendo hardcore were the only people buying the WiiU outside of a handful of scalpers who got burned. Those people happily go where the Nintendo games are, and for years after the effective death of the WiiU that was the 3DS. They werent buying XboxOnes to get their Mario and Animal Crossing fix.

 

[Stanng243]

Which part of that is inaccurate?

The WiiU being wildly expensive hardware catering only to nintendo fans? Because thats not really a debate. No game that wasn't developed by Nintendo themselves sold over a million copies.

The WiiU having severe droughts, a weak launch, an even weaker library, and an early death? That part is also demonstrably true. Even among Nintendo's own titles the only things that sold any copies were Mario Kart, a handful of mario platformers and Splatoon.

You know as well as i do that the same exact people paying $300-350 to play mario kart 8 were the same people buying mario kart 7 on 3DS.

Stop kidding yourself.

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I bought the Wii U, I never touched a 3DS. I haven't had a Nintendo portable since the game boy. I bought the Wii U off liking the Wii.

 

[Manmademan]

I bought the Wii U, I never touched a 3DS. I haven't had a Nintendo portable since the game boy. I bought the Wii U off liking the Wii.

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Sure Jan. Like i said, a handful of edge cases exist, but arent worth discussing.

The 3DS and the WiiU audience by and large was the same damn thing and everyone knows it. Stacking the two and pretending Nintendo's audience is potentially 72 million (3DS) + 13 million (wiiU) as if the crossover wasnt damn near 100% is completely ridiculous.

No Nintendo console has ever gotten anywhere close to 85 million units save the Wii, and that system's audience (and the DS as a handheld) were both devastated by casuals leaving gaming en masse for phones and tablets.

It would take a miracle for the Switch to hit Wii levels, and 120 million is completely impossible.

The Switch due to hardware restrictions cannot run third party titles that got the broader audience buying units like COD/GTA/Battlefield/Destiny/Fallout/Assassins creed/RDR2. Like it or not these games push a ton of units and the ps4 wouldn't be at 90 million without them either.

Those will stay PS4/XBO/PC. Nintendo's first parties unlike Sony's are ill equipped to make anything similar that might attract that audience.

Nintendo also cannot cost reduce the switch to the levels it did for the 3DS. The 3DS was outdated and overpriced hardware for what it was when it launched, and stripping even that down to the bare bones $80 2DS is the only way the 3DS hit 70m units.

There will be no $80 Switch. The hardware is simply too expensive.

 

[Stanng243]

Sure Jan. Like i said, a handful of edge cases exist, but arent worth discussing.

The 3DS and the WiiU audience by and large was the same damn thing and everyone knows it. Stacking the two and pretending Nintendo's audience is potentially 72 million (3DS) + 13 million (wiiU) as if the crossover wasnt damn near 100% is completely ridiculous.

No Nintendo console has ever gotten anywhere close to 85 million units save the Wii, and that system's audience (and the DS as a handheld) were both devastated by casuals leaving gaming en masse for phones and tablets.

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You don't have to be insulting. And you may believe that the 3ds and the WiiU audience are the same, but that doesn't make it a fact.

 

[D.Lo]

You don't have to be insulting. And you may believe that the 3ds and the WiiU audience are the same, but that doesn't make it a fact.

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I personally agree that probably 90% of Wii U owners also got a 3DS. Probably the highest crossover ratio of all time.
Some people have a theory that one of the reasons for the Wii U selling even lower than say Gamecube was that 3DS was a 'good enough' 'main' Nintendo system for the 20-30 million Nintendo hardcores, since it got a full main 3D Mario, 2D Mario, Mario Kart, Smash Bros etc.

But that poster last page essentially said "PS3 might have lost a lot of money on hardware but made it up in software sales so therefore it was a success" lol. They didn't reply once I informed them the quoted PS3 losses of 5-10 billion dollars were totals including any money back in software sales...

That said, the 3DS/Wii U numbers are being used in interesting ways by people with various perspectives/agendas. Some use Wii U+3DS sales as the bar for the Switch to be said to be successful, since Switch replaces both handheld and TV console. Which is kind of reasonable, the only caveat there being that 3DS is still selling too.

This poster with an anti-Nintendo angle is using Wii U+3DS (minus the crossover) in a new way - as the Switch sales ceiling, as if Wii U+3DS sales (minus the crossover) is the absolute limit for Switch sales. Which seems pretty dumb as Switch is much more appealing hardware than Wii U and 3DS ever were and is reaching well beyond the 'minimum' Nintendo hardcore.

 

[Hieroph]

Which part of that is inaccurate?

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Everything that I quoted, except the part starting with "The 3DS".

Okay, so it was just 83% bullshit.

But here's just one tiny thing to consider, Just Dance of all things still keeps getting made for Wii U. Why?

I personally agree that probably 90% of Wii U owners also got a 3DS. Probably the highest crossover ratio of all time.

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I don't believe that either, and the fact is, we simply don't know. Probably even Nintendo doesn't know, but they should have a good estimate, and they have some actual data too (but not complete data). Going with something as high as 90% and completely forgetting that people buy systems for a lot of different reasons just doesn't make a lot of sense.