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When will the first 'next gen' console arrive?

  • H2 2019

    Votes: 638 14.1%
  • H1 2020

    Votes: 724 16.0%
  • H2 2020

    Votes: 2,813 62.2%
  • H1 2021

    Votes: 141 3.1%
  • H2 2021

    Votes: 208 4.6%

  • Total voters
    4,524
  • Poll closed .
Oct 25, 2017
17,904
Edit - IIRC, Benji said that 20% stat is outdated for X and Pro. It is higher now (especially for X).

Has there been any worth wild rumors or post concerning next gen in this thread or has this thread strictly been speculation for the last 9 and a half thousand posts?
The original plan was to launch in 2019 but they are going with 2020 instead.
BC is behind schedule for Sony.

Times are changing. People are willing to spend $1000 on phones every year now and don't care about price of the console if they can get better perfomance on their $3000 OLED TV instead.
Xbox One X did much better than Pro with $500 device and imagine what will happen if Sony goes with $400 H2 2019 and Microsoft with $500 H2 2020.
Playstation 5 will become 4.5 or Pro 2 should i say.
Well, you're consistent. I'll give you that.
 

Deleted member 40133

User requested account closure
Banned
Feb 19, 2018
6,095
Any proof? Don't both sell to like 20% of buyers?

Let's say 30% of Xbox buyers get X and 20% of ps4 buyers get Pro. 20% of 18M is 3.6M while 30% of 8M is 2.4M.

I think both are 20% or under. Really doubt X does better than Pro

Right the numbers aren't really simple apples to apples like launch sales between the two. Is it new people buying in? Is it people trading in OG for upgraded consoles? So does that mean OG ownership matters or does it not? Its really a toss up as far as what you want to see in the numbers
 

loicperrin31

Member
Oct 12, 2018
99
France
iPhone X sales aren't as high as iPhone 8 to my knowledge.
To my, it is. Check on google shares on iPhone-only market and usage percentages. But that's not our topic of discussion.

Seems unlikely we get anything less than 10TF. I'd expect a 8 core CPU at 3GHz. Wouldn't call that a PS4 Pro 2 by any means, that's a very good leap not hamstrung by a weak CPU
Yes, i'm thinking the same about specs. But let's say One X 2 got 4-6 teraflops more. It is a disaster for me if we see it through the prism of a consoles that is going to sell for 7 years.
Any proof? Don't both sell to like 20% of buyers?

Let's say 30% of Xbox buyers get X and 20% of ps4 buyers get Pro. 20% of 18M is 3.6M while 30% of 8M is 2.4M.

I think both are 20% or under. Really doubt X does better than Pro
When i said "did better" i didn't mean in sales-wise at all.
 

Deleted member 40133

User requested account closure
Banned
Feb 19, 2018
6,095
So can we hope for PS3 BC?

Our potential leaker (seemed legit from background provided) said he was referring to backwards compatibility for ps4 specifically. Also, that apparently BC was not a thing until relatively recently (2017) and that they're adding it in now.

Related to all this, I honestly don't know how I feel about this BC revelation if it's true. Part of me is dumbfounded that they would think they could launch without it, it would be x1 levels. Another part me is....glad (?) That they're actually listening to what people want and implementing it. So I don't know what the more important take away is
 

loicperrin31

Member
Oct 12, 2018
99
France
Don't you guys agree that Xbox One X is a lot quieter, has more Native 4K games, smaller?
As a Sony fan, I can't move to another console. Especially with all these exclusives we have. But sometimes I think what would PS4 Pro be if we had a $500 price.
Do you prioritise the $100 more?
 
Feb 26, 2018
2,753
Our potential leaker (seemed legit from background provided) said he was referring to backwards compatibility for ps4 specifically. Also, that apparently BC was not a thing until relatively recently (2017) and that they're adding it in now.

Related to all this, I honestly don't know how I feel about this BC revelation if it's true. Part of me is dumbfounded that they would think they could launch without it, it would be x1 levels. Another part me is....glad (?) That they're actually listening to what people want and implementing it. So I don't know what the more important take away is

Priorities I guess. I think that BC was the plan from the start but it wasn't that important for Sony. But something happened and they are now focusing on ps4 BC.
I still want ps3/2/1 BC tho
 
Oct 27, 2017
20,761
To my, it is. Check on google shares on iPhone-only market and usage percentages. But that's not our topic of discussion.


Yes, i'm thinking the same about specs. But let's say One X 2 got 4-6 teraflops more. It is a disaster for me if we see it through the prism of a consoles that is going to sell for 7 years.

When i said "did better" i didn't mean in sales-wise at all.
I really doubt Xbox can do much more than 1-2TFs better even with a year later

Do you have a link on iPhone? Because it's been talk about at length about the 8 selling better than the X in the same time frame. There are numerous reports that they cut production of the X before Xs due to lower sales.

My main point was the success of a $999 sku vs their $700 sku. It's worth discussing if the "people spend $1000 on phones so they'll spend $500 on consoles" point is made because it remains to be seen how successful $1000 phones are
 

Gemüsepizza

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,541
I can't understand why do people still think it'll be a $400 console.

Those people saw that it worked last time, and they think that Sony will want to replicate the success by repeating every move they made 1:1. But what they don't acknowledge is, how many things have changed since then.

I think there are several factors which lead to PS4's $399 price:

1.) Sony got their ass kicked by Microsoft during the previous generations. They went from being the undisputable market leader to barely beating Microsoft in sales.

2.) Microsoft's new console was launching at the same time as PS4.

3.) Sony as a company was struggling. The PS4 was something like a last stand for them.

Imo, that's why PS4 was $399. It was of utmost importance that PS4 had an extremely competitive price, because the market was extremely competitive.


Now, things are looking very different: Sony is number one again, with a gigantic lead. Brand popularity is at an all-time high, and there is a chance that Sony could be the only company launching their console in 2019.

In such a situation, they simply don't need to launch at $399. They could launch at $499, and PS5 will be sold out for weeks. Then there is also the fact, that, thanks to inflation, $399 in 2019 would be more like $365 in 2013. Those people don't even think that PS5 will have the same price as PS4, they think that PS5 will be cheaper. That makes no sense. Sony are in a very comfortable position right now, there is no need for this. I think the lowest, possible price is $440. And who knows, maybe they will even go for $499.
 
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Feb 26, 2018
2,753
Don't you guys agree that Xbox One X is a lot quieter, has more Native 4K games, smaller?
As a Sony fan, I can't move to another console. Especially with all these exclusives we have. But sometimes I think what would PS4 Pro be if we had a $500 price.
Do you prioritise the $100 more?

Pro released 100 cheaper year earlier. Ofc it's a better hardware in every way.

100$ is nothing. I'll pay 600 for better console. But it's not about the hardcore. Sony needs to sell their consoles to the casual crowd that cares about 100$
 

loicperrin31

Member
Oct 12, 2018
99
France
Do you have a link on iPhone? Because it's been talk about at length about the 8 selling better than the X in the same time frame. There are numerous reports that they cut production of the X before Xs due to lower sales.
Yeah I remember news like that but I think it was bullshit maybe? I'm not sure now tbh.

https://appleinsider.com/articles/1...est-selling-smartphone-model-in-first-quarter

"Apple has now shifted almost 50 million iPhone X units worldwide since commercial launch in November 2017. The Apple iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus shipped 12.5 and 8.3 million units, respectively, for second and third place,"

I really doubt Xbox can do much more than 1-2TFs better even with a year later
I can't see how a free year of development and $100 more for a price can only add 1 teraflop to a specs.
 

VallenValiant

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,598
Did the x actually sell better than pro?
Ratio wise yes. Quantity wise no. The latest numbers has the 1X selling at about twice as much as the 1S, while the Pro is selling at 1 to 3 vs regular PS4. However, the PS4 family are selling at 100 times greater quantity than the Microsoft Box family using the very same numbers.

So Pro is selling way faster than 1X by raw numbers. As in 52 XB1X vs 5084 PS4 Pro in a single week of September.

https://www.resetera.com/threads/media-create-sales-week-39-2018-sep-24-sep-30.72505/
 

Gemüsepizza

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,541
Our potential leaker (seemed legit from background provided) said he was referring to backwards compatibility for ps4 specifically. Also, that apparently BC was not a thing until relatively recently (2017) and that they're adding it in now.

Related to all this, I honestly don't know how I feel about this BC revelation if it's true. Part of me is dumbfounded that they would think they could launch without it, it would be x1 levels. Another part me is....glad (?) That they're actually listening to what people want and implementing it. So I don't know what the more important take away is

To be quite honest, I don't believe that PS5 was delayed because of BC. It makes not much sense. As soon as it was clear that PS5 will also be based on AMD's x86 and GPU tech, it was only logical to also work on BC. I can't imagine that they chose this architecture for PS5, and didn't think about BC. And BC isn't just about software, it's also about hardware. Their new APU and memory configuration has to support certain thresholds regarding internal bandwidth, timings, latency, or else they risk that BC will be problematic. There is simply no way that they have designed such an expensive APU without considering stuff like this.
 

Sid

Banned
Mar 28, 2018
3,755
I would buy the PS5 at launch if it has enhanced PS3 BC, if not will have to wait for a compelling exclusive. Still think it's 2019 though...
 

loicperrin31

Member
Oct 12, 2018
99
France
100$ is nothing. I'll pay 600 for better console. But it's not about the hardcore. Sony needs to sell their consoles to the casual crowd that cares about 100$
Me too. But my point is that One X did a new standart for the prices.
When i was watching the reveal I laughed so hard thinking "Who tf will buy it at $500?", but 1 year ahead and I see more people buying It just because it's not loud as a Boeing or has native 4K in third-party games like Far Cry 5.

Maybe I'm just not familiar with "casual" gamers and totally wrong about everything.
 
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Kyoufu

Member
Oct 26, 2017
16,582
Ratio wise yes. Quantity wise no. The latest numbers has the 1X selling at about twice as much as the 1S, while the Pro is selling at 1 to 3 vs regular PS4. However, the PS4 family are selling at 100 times greater quantity than the Microsoft Box family using the very same numbers.

So Pro is selling way faster than 1X by raw numbers. As in 52 XB1X vs 5084 PS4 Pro in a single week of September.

https://www.resetera.com/threads/media-create-sales-week-39-2018-sep-24-sep-30.72505/

Xbox doesn't exist in Japan. Dunno why you're using those numbers.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,575
I'll just say one thing. There is a vast difference between new generation console launch pricing, and pricing for mid-gen refreshes aimed solely as enthusiasts. Sony played safe with the pricing for the Pro when they could've gotten away with more due to the audience it was aimed at being willing to pay more to pick up consoles.

New generation launches aim to reach as broad an audience as possible. Not just enthusiasts. It's in their best interest to get the casuals on board asap. So applying mid-gen refresh pricing logic to a new generation launch is not a good idea. Doubly so if your console is coming out a year later than your competition.
 

VallenValiant

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,598
I'll just say one thing. There is a vast difference between new generation console launch pricing, and pricing for mid-gen refreshes aimed solely as enthusiasts. Sony played safe with the pricing for the Pro when they could've gotten away with more due to the audience it was aimed at being willing to pay more to pick up consoles.

New generation launches aim to reach as broad an audience as possible. Not just enthusiasts. It's in their best interest to get the casuals on board asap. So applying mid-gen refresh pricing logic to a new generation launch is not a good idea. Doubly so if your console is coming out a year later than your competition.
Almost by definition, there would be more enthusiasts in ERA than in the average gaming population. So despite you being absolutely correct, I fear your words are falling on deaf ears.

ERA, like anywhere else online, is an echo chamber where we often hear like minded opinions. So it is way too easy to assume that Enthusiast desires are also universal desires, if one only take stock of the posts made in this forum. I can't blame anyone for this, but I do have to commend you for trying to fight against the tide.
 
Feb 26, 2018
2,753
Me too. But my point is that One X did a new standart for the prices.
When i was watching the reveal I laughed so hard thinking "Who tf will buy it at $500?", but 1 year ahead and I see more people buying It just because it's not as a Boeing or has native 4K in third-party games like Far Cry 5.

Maybe I'm just not familiar with "casual" gamers and totally wrong about everything.

Well I don't believe X set any standards for the pricing. It's a premium product with a premium price (compared to base hardware)
And as I can tell Pro is outselling X WW. X wins in USA probably. Can't tell you anything without the numbers
 

Viceratops

Banned
Jun 29, 2018
2,570
Our potential leaker (seemed legit from background provided) said he was referring to backwards compatibility for ps4 specifically. Also, that apparently BC was not a thing until relatively recently (2017) and that they're adding it in now.

Related to all this, I honestly don't know how I feel about this BC revelation if it's true. Part of me is dumbfounded that they would think they could launch without it, it would be x1 levels. Another part me is....glad (?) That they're actually listening to what people want and implementing it. So I don't know what the more important take away is
Idk, BC doesn't seem like a big deal to me even though I know people love having the option to go back. I very rarely play a game that's from outside the generation we are in. But I also feel no nostalgia for basically anything.

As far as Sony the platform holder rationalizes no BC for PS5, I think that they think they are doing themselves and their publishing partners a favor by not having BC. If everyone spends time playing old games, they're less likely to buy new ones. But perhaps they see the backlash against not having it as more harmful for sales than the amount of people who will buy less games.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,575
Casuals spent their $400 6 years ago. Why would they care about price now especially when they got no alternative? (assuming One X 2 will out in 2020)

Also 99% you will be able to play PS4 games on it so it's a lot of economy for casuals who are making a change.
They got an alternative. It's called the PS5 at $400. Or are you saying $500 for both console's launches? Because then they'd just wait for the first console that drops to $400. And yes, casuals ARE super price sensitive. Raise price, demand lowers. That's how it works.

What we will see happen is when the mid-gen refresh happens next-time (which is likely cause these got a decent traction in the enthusiast base), Sony will be more willing to put out a higher priced product.
 
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Deleted member 40133

User requested account closure
Banned
Feb 19, 2018
6,095
Pro released 100 cheaper year earlier. Ofc it's a better hardware in every way.

100$ is nothing. I'll pay 600 for better console. But it's not about the hardcore. Sony needs to sell their consoles to the casual crowd that cares about 100$
Seriously this. Its like complaining that a BMW 5 series is better than an Acura ilx. The BMW has more features because it's more expensive even though they're both luxury cars. Those are aimed two different segments of the same general luxury market
 

VallenValiant

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,598
Idk, BC doesn't seem like a big deal to me even though I know people love having the option to go back. I very rarely play a game that's from outside the generation we are in. But I also feel no nostalgia for basically anything.

As far as Sony the platform holder rationalizes no BC for PS5, I think that they think they are doing themselves and their publishing partners a favor by not having BC. If everyone spends time playing old games, they're less likely to buy new ones. But perhaps they see the backlash against not having it as more harmful for sales than the amount of people who will buy less games.
You are not looking at where the money is in 2018 and beyond. All the GaaS games don't earn money from selling you the game upfront, but from microtransactions afterwards. The issue with no BC, is that suddenly the game developers will be forced to start from scratch with their games. And with all their old purchases obsolete, the old customers are then no longer needing to worry about sunk costs and are able to go and buy some OTHER GaaS game, never to return.

In short, selling new games is NOT how a lot of studios are earning money these days. They instead try to retain players and trap them into playing and spending, and forcing them to stay put in order to not "lose" the virtual items they had already paid for. Minecraft, Fortnite, Overwatch, FGO, all these games do NOT want to sell you a new title. They rather you keep playing.
 

Bowl0l

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,608
They got an alternative. It's called the PS5 at $400. Or are you saying $500 for both console's launches? Because then they'd just wait for the first console that drops to $400. And yes, casuals ARE super price sensitive. Raise price, demand lowers. That's how it works.
the casuals are probably waiting for a $300 console with a free game. Better for Sony to aim high with the specs (maybe 600) and let the enthusiast to cushion the cost early with a 500 pricetag then slowly lower it to 400 in a year. Sounds great to promote a 100 price drop too.
 

Tratorn

Member
Oct 25, 2017
709
Even if a 499€ PS5 would sell great and reach high LTD numbers, I think Sony would be too "scared" to try it. They obviously don't want to lose their momentum and that price increase is a risk.
I myself would love 499$ from a hardware perspective but I want a fast selling console more (even if that means it is a bit less powerful) so that it reaches a high user base as fast as possible and moves 3rd partys to next-gen only games.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,575
Yes. As I said i think One X set a stardard. As an enthusiast I hope I'm right on this, because I always want to have best picture.
Right now we have 4K console without a 4K and it's sad.
The X has set a standard for mid-gen refreshes that is it. What you'll see next time around is Sony will be willing to put out a higher priced mid-gen refresh, but that's all the X would have accomplished. The only way the X would've set a standard that would've effected new-gen launches is if it started outpacing the XB1S sales, which it hasn't, not by a long shot.

But I'm done here. Seems people are more interested in saying scenarios that they would personally like to happen are likely rather than looking at it from a business perspective removed from their own personal wants.
 

Viceratops

Banned
Jun 29, 2018
2,570
You are not looking at where the money is in 2018 and beyond. All the GaaS games don't earn money from selling you the game upfront, but from microtransactions afterwards. The issue with no BC, is that suddenly the game developers will be forced to start from scratch with their games. And with all their old purchases obsolete, the old customers are then no longer needing to worry about sunk costs and are able to go and buy some OTHER GaaS game, never to return.

In short, selling new games is NOT how a lot of studios are earning money these days. They instead try to retain players and trap them into playing and spending, and forcing them to stay put in order to not "lose" the virtual items they had already paid for. Minecraft, Fortnite, Overwatch, FGO, all these games do NOT want to sell you a new title. They rather you keep playing.
I don't disagree at all. I made my post from the perspective of decision makers at Sony. It was a hypothetical situation based on the idea that Sony changed their mind at some point in the generation. Once the cow milking games became the norm, it was obvious that BC would have to be implemented.
 

VallenValiant

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,598
the casuals are probably waiting for a $300 console with a free game. Better for Sony to aim high with the specs (maybe 600) and let the enthusiast to cushion the cost early with a 500 pricetag then slowly lower it to 400 in a year. Sounds great to promote a 100 price drop too.
That argument got us the PS3 "get a 2nd job" meme. Sony is not going to repeat that, they are basically knocking down everything PS3 stood for as we speak.
 

loicperrin31

Member
Oct 12, 2018
99
France
Seems people are more interested in saying scenarios that they would personally like to happen are likely rather than looking at it from a business perspective removed from their own personal wants.
I'm sorry but that's the only thing I came here for. Without any leaks or announces we can only dream about how nextgen would look like.
 

Golvellius

Banned
Dec 3, 2017
1,304
Because they launched the pro at $399? And the PS4?

The ps3 fiasco is still fresh and it's not like Xbox has done great at $499, it needed the price drop without Kinect to $399 to start making moves. X only sells to 20% or less of Xbox buyers which is what, 20% of 8M annually maybe? So like 1-1.5M at best?

Also because they've forecasted losses for 2020-21 and it's more likely they sell a $400 device at a loss than a $500? $550 console at $500 would hamper flexibility for years later where as a $430-$450 console at $400 gives them the $350, $300 prices eventually instead of $400 being the first major price drop

Not to mention other industry trends like more expensive phones like IPhone X selling slower than normal iPhones due to price and tb 8/Xr being lower priced and bought more widely
These numbers don't really support the bolded statement:
https://www.resetera.com/threads/media-create-sales-week-40-2018-oct-01-oct-07.73953/
 
Feb 26, 2018
2,753
So what's new?
  1. 2020 release is rumored
  2. PS5 was moved cus of SW and BC with PS4 or PS3 (info by not verified insider)
  3. We got one new PS4 major exclusive still unannounced
Did I miss anything?
 
Oct 28, 2017
8,071
2001
Well either way, if it's 2019 or 2020, there's not much time left till next gen now. Things are gonna start getting very interesting here in the next few months as more leaks and rumors are revealed.

This is absolutely my favorite time as a gamer when new consoles are being discussed and you start envisioning what they'll be capable of.
 

Bowl0l

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,608
That argument got us the PS3 "get a 2nd job" meme. Sony is not going to repeat that, they are basically knocking down everything PS3 stood for as we speak.
Difference is their competitor has a 500 box and they could offer more PS4 exclusives in Plus that will fill up the PS5 library.

Their focus will be: Buy this 500 box so that you can play exclusives in a better shape. If that fails, Sony could still pull more people into subscribing Plus.
 

BreakAtmo

Member
Nov 12, 2017
12,838
Australia
PS4 BC was the plan since the very beginning.

You've said this before, and I was thinking about it when Kleegamefan claimed there was a delay to add PS4 BC. If your source confirmed that BC was part of the design from the start, then it feels like someone must be getting bad, or incomplete information.

That argument got us the PS3 "get a 2nd job" meme. Sony is not going to repeat that, they are basically knocking down everything PS3 stood for as we speak.

Amusing that you think consumers won't be able to ignore the $100 difference between $399 and $499, when you can ignore the $100 difference between $499 and $599 just fine. And that's before we even get into inflation.
 

Tratorn

Member
Oct 25, 2017
709
the casuals are probably waiting for a $300 console with a free game. Better for Sony to aim high with the specs (maybe 600) and let the enthusiast to cushion the cost early with a 500 pricetag then slowly lower it to 400 in a year. Sounds great to promote a 100 price drop too.

Really no offense but imo everything of this post is wrong.

1) Having a huge price drop is never good a good promotion, especially not within a short timeframe like a year. It shows that their product wasn't worth the price for the market.

2) Better hardware isn't a decision for the first year, but for the entire generation. They'll have a much harder time to reach low price points in general. More powerful hardware isn't something you can cut later like PS2 BC of the PS3 or XB1s Kinect.

3) There is a new audience for practically any 100$ jump. Just like you'll reach other people when going from 200 to 300 or 400 to 300 the same happens with 500 to 400. It's not like 400+ is just the price for enthusiasts who would pay "any" price.
 

loicperrin31

Member
Oct 12, 2018
99
France
well then why stop at $500 then, let's just dream up a $1500 console that is doing 20+TF with 32GB of GDDR6 RAM and a 2TB SSD.

We just in here to talk about our dreams of next-gen after all.
You didn't tell me why the casual crowd won't buy PS5 if the price will be $500.
Even if we are speaking about 2020, do you think that next Xbox will be $400 too? How is that possible with $500 One X?
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,575
You didn't tell me why the casual crowd won't buy PS5 if the price will be $500.
Even if we are speaking about 2020, do you think that next Xbox will be $400 too? How is that possible with $500 One X?
Because the casuals aren't buying the X. It's the enthusiasts.

And I expect the X to be phased out in the leadup to launch so that they push people over to that as a purchase option.

The X is priced that way in part due to them going for a super small form factor, and needing a high end cooling solution to not only keep the system quiet but also deal with the components that are generating way more heat than the newer/better components in the scarlett will. And I don't expect the form factor for scarlett to get smaller, it'll be closer to the size of what the regular ps4 was. And that will drive down costs as well.

And also, with the amount of components MS will be ordering for a proper new-gen console that is expected to sell at the very least 5 times more than the X was, they will also be getting that much of a cheaper price for similar components from the providers. And last but not least let's not forget, scarlett would be 3 years after the X if 2020. That is a lot of time in the tech industry in regards to pricing. The components in the X will not cost $500 at that point in time like they did in 2017.
 
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