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When will the first 'next gen' console arrive?

  • H2 2019

    Votes: 638 14.1%
  • H1 2020

    Votes: 724 16.0%
  • H2 2020

    Votes: 2,813 62.2%
  • H1 2021

    Votes: 141 3.1%
  • H2 2021

    Votes: 208 4.6%

  • Total voters
    4,524
  • Poll closed .

Phonzo

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,817
Peoples performance and ram expectations are really out of control. I just spent 700 dollars on an RTX 2080. (Nearly) the most powerful mainstream graphics card on the market and that is 10TFLOPs of performance. Obviously architecture can change how the raw power is utilized, but it's simply unrealistic to expect the 10tflop ballpark from a console. I think we get 7-8 tops, with a much a better CPU than current gen and maybe 4-8 gigs more ram than the current line of consoles. To be honest even that feels a little high IMO.
Nvidia tflops are different from AMDs
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,913
Maryland
Peoples performance and ram expectations are really out of control. I just spent 700 dollars on an RTX 2080. (Nearly) the most powerful mainstream graphics card on the market and that is 10TFLOPs of performance. Obviously architecture can change how the raw power is utilized, but it's simply unrealistic to expect the 10tflop ballpark from a console. I think we get 7-8 tops, with a much a better CPU than current gen and maybe 4-8 gigs more ram than the current line of consoles. To be honest even that feels a little high IMO.
Vega 64 has 12TF and can be had for $500. Nvidia TF != AMD TF, and neither are 7nm. Console makers pay for wafers, not the margins of 3 different middlemen between die and finished board like graphics card makers.
 

TheModestGun

Banned
Dec 5, 2017
3,781
Vega 64 has 12TF and can be had for $500. Nvidia TF != AMD TF, and neither are 7nm. Console makers pay for wafers, not the margins of 3 different middlemen between die and finished board like graphics card makers.
I understand this, but even so. The theoretical computational capabilities of VEGA do not equate to real world performance. It's why NVidias cards still run circles around them. Despite having a lower tflop.

Not to mention 500 dollars is still 500 dollars for a GPU.YES Sony will be getting a custom manufactured APU that will cut down costs, but expectations need to be kept in check. We are not getting a 500 dollar equivalent GPU in the next gen consoles. It's not happening.
 

Kyoufu

Member
Oct 26, 2017
16,582
I understand this, but even so. The theoretical computational capabilities of VEGA do not equate to real world performance. It's why NVidias cards still run circles around them. Despite having a lower tflop.

Not to mention 500 dollars is still 500 dollars for a GPU.YES Sony will be getting a custom manufactured APU that will cut down costs, but expectations need to be kept in check. We are not getting a 500 dollar equivalent GPU in the next gen consoles. It's not happening.

The current tech rumour is that AMD are planning a Navi card that will be replacing the GTX 1080 and Vega 64 cards' performance at a lower price point of $250 to $300.
 

eathdemon

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
9,690
I understand this, but even so. The theoretical computational capabilities of VEGA do not equate to real world performance. It's why NVidias cards still run circles around them. Despite having a lower tflop.

Not to mention 500 dollars is still 500 dollars for a GPU.YES Sony will be getting a custom manufactured APU that will cut down costs, but expectations need to be kept in check. We are not getting a 500 dollar equivalent GPU in the next gen consoles. It's not happening.
thats also 2018 prices on 14nm, not 2020 prices on 7nm. 7nm of that power will be cheaper, than their 14nm version.
 

TheModestGun

Banned
Dec 5, 2017
3,781
The current tech rumour is that Navi will be replacing the GTX 1080 and Vega 64 cards at a lower price point of $250 to $300.
If that holds true, that would be seriously impressive and a game changer. But I've learned to hold my expectations with AMD any time they make big promises or there are big rumors. Ryzen definitely is a great product, especially for its price range but it was not revolutionary like they tried to make it sound.

We'll just have to see.

I'd just like to avoid meltdowns in this place when the new systems are inevitably not in line with peoples ideas.
 

BreakAtmo

Member
Nov 12, 2017
12,838
Australia
It's hidden away. Sony is super upfront about celebrating milestones. You wouldn't just hide that away so well people don't notice it for days

I thought of that myself. It's a good point, but I just don't want to get my hopes up.

Vega 64 has 12TF and can be had for $500. Nvidia TF != AMD TF, and neither are 7nm. Console makers pay for wafers, not the margins of 3 different middlemen between die and finished board like graphics card makers.

Seriously, that post was like clueless PC gamer bingo. All of the classic wrong assumptions.
 

Kyoufu

Member
Oct 26, 2017
16,582
If that holds true, that would be seriously impressive and a game changer. But I've learned to hold my expectations with AMD any time they make big promises or there are big rumors. Ryzen definitely is a great product, especially for its price range but it was not revolutionary like they tried to make it sound.

We'll just have to see.

I'd just like to avoid meltdowns in this place when the new systems are inevitably not in line with peoples ideas.

Yeah, I get it. People hoping for 32GB RAM and stuff are going to be disappointed, but I think a 7nm Navi card at that performance range isn't really unrealistic. They're not really promising the world with a card that performs like a product that came out 4 years ago, at a lower price. That should be the least anyone expects out of them.
 

TheModestGun

Banned
Dec 5, 2017
3,781
I thought of that myself. It's a good point, but I just don't want to get my hopes up.



Seriously, that post was like clueless PC gamer bingo. All of the classic wrong assumptions.
Nah bud, it really isn't. I understand that it's a custom APU. I understand that a die shrink gives higher yields, I understand that mass production of said APU will make it massively cheaper. I still don't think you are going to see the kind of leap some people on here are expecting. All of those factors combined plus the fact that TFLOPS alone are not as meaningful as people like to make them out to be (hence Vega performing markedly worse than the 2080 in most benchmarks.)

Peoples expectations are too high.
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,913
Maryland
If that holds true, that would be seriously impressive and a game changer. But I've learned to hold my expectations with AMD any time they make big promises or there are big rumors. Ryzen definitely is a great product, especially for its price range but it was not revolutionary like they tried to make it sound.

We'll just have to see.

I'd just like to avoid meltdowns in this place when the new systems are inevitably not in line with peoples ideas.
This isn't AMD claims. This is based on leaked rumors by a source that has shown to be correct in the past.

Nah bud, it really isn't. I understand that it's a custom APU. I understand that a die shrink gives higher yields, I understand that mass production of said APU will make it massively cheaper. I still don't think you are going to see the kind of leap some people on here are expecting. All of those factors combined plus the fact that TFLOPS alone are not as meaningful as people like to make them out to be (hence Vega performing markedly worse than the 2080 in most benchmarks.)

Peoples expectations are too high.

PS4 Pro doubled the PS4 in three years. XB1X tripled the PS4 in 4 years. But the PS5 can't double the XB1X in another three years?

PS5 will have the benefit of 7nm, which has yet to be realized in a consumer GPU or desktop class CPU.
 

eathdemon

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
9,690
Nah bud, it really isn't. I understand that it's a custom APU. I understand that a die shrink gives higher yields, I understand that mass production of said APU will make it massively cheaper. I still don't think you are going to see the kind of leap some people on here are expecting. All of those factors combined plus the fact that TFLOPS alone are not as meaningful as people like to make them out to be (hence Vega performing markedly worse than the 2080 in most benchmarks.)

Peoples expectations are too high.
I mean people are expecting around a 1080 performance for the ps5. I dont think thats over doing it give the x have around a 1060 in it.
 

TheModestGun

Banned
Dec 5, 2017
3,781
Yeah, I get it. People hoping for 32GB RAM and stuff are going to be disappointed, but I think a 7nm Navi card at that performance range isn't really unrealistic. They're not really promising the world with a card that performs like a product that came out 4 years ago, at a lower price. That should be the least anyone expects out of them.


I'm mostly skeptical because with each process shrink, the resulting performance boost has been increasingly incremental.

Edit:

For instance:
Obviously not a 1 to 1 comparison but AMD shrinking to 7nm process for Zen2 and they are only claiming a 13% IPC increase, and that's with architectural improvements as well.
 
Last edited:

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,913
Maryland
I'm mostly skeptical because with each process shrink, the resulting performance boost has been increasingly incremental.

Edit:

For instance:
Obviously not a 1 to 1 comparison but AMD shrinking to 7nm process for Zen2 and they are only claiming a 13% IPC increase, and that's with architectural improvements as well.
IPC has nothing to do with nodes. It's solely architecture dependent.
 

eathdemon

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
9,690
I'm mostly skeptical because with each process shrink, the resulting performance boost has been increasingly incremental.

Edit:

For instance:
Obviously not a 1 to 1 comparison but AMD shrinking to 7nm process for Zen2 and they are only claiming a 13% IPC increase, and that's with architectural improvements as well.
yes, but they are getting+ 20% perf at the same power stat at 7nm as well. ipc does not equal clock speed. the reasson 2.8 to 3.4 ghz keeps coming up is becouse that would be a very underclocked part, therefore a very low heat/power part.
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,913
Maryland
yes, but they are getting+ 20% perf at the same power stat at 7nm as well. ipc does not equal clock speed. the reasson 2.8 to 3.4 ghz keeps coming up is becouse that would be a very underclocked part, therefore a very low heat/power part.
1.25X at the same power. The more important metric is 0.5x the power for the same performance. So a theoretical 7nm Vega uses half the power at the same clocks to hit 12TF.
 

BreakAtmo

Member
Nov 12, 2017
12,838
Australia
Nah bud, it really isn't. I understand that it's a custom APU. I understand that a die shrink gives higher yields, I understand that mass production of said APU will make it massively cheaper. I still don't think you are going to see the kind of leap some people on here are expecting. All of those factors combined plus the fact that TFLOPS alone are not as meaningful as people like to make them out to be (hence Vega performing markedly worse than the 2080 in most benchmarks.)

Peoples expectations are too high.

I'm guessing that in 2011 you probably thought that the PS4 would have no more than 2GB of RAM?
 
Oct 27, 2017
4,018
Florida
I'm mostly skeptical because with each process shrink, the resulting performance boost has been increasingly incremental.

Edit:

For instance:
Obviously not a 1 to 1 comparison but AMD shrinking to 7nm process for Zen2 and they are only claiming a 13% IPC increase, and that's with architectural improvements as well.

Yeah but that's 13% increase with half the TDP and cost. That means you can add more CUs (Next Gen Architecture) if you want to keep the same TDP as before.
 
Feb 10, 2018
17,534
I see no reason why we will get any less then vega 56 performance on the gpu.
It's disappointing there's been no or better detective work on gddr6 ram prices, surely someone knows how much nvidia are paying for there GDDR6.
But people just pull ram numbers out there asses without much reason.
Even if we can find out how much Sony and ms are paying now for there gddr5, it will give us a better idea on how much ram will be in next gen.
 

TheModestGun

Banned
Dec 5, 2017
3,781
I'm guessing that in 2011 you probably thought that the PS4 would have no more than 2GB of RAM?
No actually I was pretty optimistic about last gen, because MAJOR architectural advancements had been made between 2005 and 2013. And ram was cheap.

Look around the CPU and GPU industries the last 3-4 years. It's constant complaints about lack of true generational leaps in both sectors. It's not hard to find an article about stagnation in these sectors.
 

BreakAtmo

Member
Nov 12, 2017
12,838
Australia
No actually I was pretty optimistic about last gen, because MAJOR architectural advancements had been made between 2005 and 2013. And ram was cheap.

RAM is likely to be cheap again (or at least cheaper than it is now) by 2020, as the main manufacturers were recently caught out for price fixing.

But besides that, as others have said, very reliable rumors have the big 7nm Navi GPU offering 1080 performance at a consumer price of about $249 with a 150W TDP for the whole card. The assumption is that the PS5 will probably have that GPU, or something very close to it. The price will have nothing to do with your $700 RTX 2080, which I'm quite sure is being sold at a higher-than-normal profit margin due to the lack of competition. That or the RTX/tensor core tech is legitimately expensive, but the PS5 ain't gonna have that.
 

TheModestGun

Banned
Dec 5, 2017
3,781
Yeah but that's 13% increase with half the TDP and cost. That means you can add more CUs (Next Gen Architecture) if you want to keep the same TDP as before.

For sure, I'm very excited to see what AMD has up there sleeves, especially with the rumors that Sony engineers are pretty directly involved with Navi.

I'm not even saying I think the system will be underpowered. Merely for people to keep their expectations on the tamer side. I would be fully content if PS5 is about a doubling of PS4 pro's processing power.

I think it's most stark improvement is likely to be on its CPU side.
 

TheModestGun

Banned
Dec 5, 2017
3,781
RAM is likely to be cheap again (or at least cheaper than it is now) by 2020, as the main manufacturers were recently caught out for price fixing.

But besides that, as others have said, very reliable rumors have the big 7nm Navi GPU offering 1080 performance at a consumer price of about $249 with a 150W TDP for the whole card. The assumption is that the PS5 will probably have that GPU, or something very close to it. The price will have nothing to do with your $700 RTX 2080, which I'm quite sure is being sold at a higher-than-normal profit margin due to the lack of competition. That or the RTX/tensor core tech is legitimately expensive, but the PS5 ain't gonna have that.

I suspect it's a little bit of column a and column b for the 2080.

What was the source for the Navi performance rumors?
 

klik

Banned
Apr 4, 2018
873
Well in about 2 weeks on CES 2019(6.January) we will find out most of the things from AMD's new CPU/GPU. That will tell us a lot more about new consoles.

In first 6 months of 2019 we'll probably know most of the specs of new consoles.
 

eathdemon

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
9,690
For sure, I'm very excited to see what AMD has up there sleeves, especially with the rumors that Sony engineers are pretty directly involved with Navi.

I'm not even saying I think the system will be underpowered. Merely for people to keep their expectations on the tamer side. I would be fully content if PS5 is about a doubling of PS4 pro's processing power.

I think it's most stark improvement is likely to be on its CPU side.
doubling the pros gpu would not put it supper far ahead of the x gpu wise. it has to be better thsn that if its gunna be 399 or more.
 

TheModestGun

Banned
Dec 5, 2017
3,781
doubling the pros gpu would not put it supper far ahead of the x gpu wise. it has to be better thsn that if its gunna be 399 or more.
We'd be at almost 9 tflops, but I think the big gains we are going to see are on the CPU side of things. One X is still essentially running jaguar. Zen and zen plus is a massive leap. I'll be pleasantly surprised if you are right on the GPU side.
 

SharpX68K

Member
Nov 10, 2017
10,518
Chicagoland
Well in about 2 weeks on CES 2019(6.January) we will find out most of the things from AMD's new CPU/GPU. That will tell us a lot more about new consoles.

In first 6 months of 2019 we'll probably know most of the specs of new consoles.

I think all AMD is going to talk about at CES is 7nm and a general outline of what's coming. Not many details on Zen 2 or Navi.

I'm hoping that around GDC (March 18 - 22) we'll have some detailed architectural and performance leaks on the new consoles.
 
Feb 10, 2018
17,534
Anyone can buy wholesale gddr6 1gb chips for $26 after tax.
I don't think its unreasonable to assume Ms and Sony will get a price of $6 per GB.
Sony spent roughly $88 for ram on PS4, so lets assume the budget is smiler.
So if they do go $399, that's 14.6gb, let's round it to 16gb.
So at 399 I think 16gb is the most likely amount.
 

eathdemon

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
9,690
We'd be at almost 9 tflops, but I think the big gains we are going to see are on the CPU side of things. One X is still essentially running jaguar. Zen and zen plus is a massive leap. I'll be pleasantly surprised if you are right on the GPU side.
dont get me wrong I would be ok with 6 to 10 tfps with zen2. this gen being so gpu heavy has created weird things. getting a better balance would be good.
 

BreakAtmo

Member
Nov 12, 2017
12,838
Australia

MrKlaw

Member
Oct 25, 2017
33,059
Overheard a conversation during lunch today of this guy telling his friend I assume that "there won't be any more systems" and that mobile gaming has killed any hope for a ps5 and next xbox. These people still exist.

There were plenty around in the run up to PS4/XB1 launch including some in the industry
 

klik

Banned
Apr 4, 2018
873
If PS5 have GPU that has official 8gb gddr6 vram,does that vram usually integrated with GPU in console?
Or it comes without that VRAM intergrated inside and it takes VRAM from the big GDDR6 pool(16-24GB) that is used also for OS,gaming etc.

Same as PS4,is 8gb gddr5 also used for VRAM or does GPU in ps4 has his own vram?
 
Nov 12, 2017
2,877
How can you argue that splitting the installed base between multiple platforms with different specs isn't fragmentation? It is objectively fragmentation by definition. So were the mid-gen consoles.

Essentially your arguement boils down to, "fragmentation is not new to devs". It's a poor arguement.

Just because its not a new thing doesn't mean its not objectively more work for developers. Fragmentation complicates development and no amount of dev tools provided by MS is going to help because developers fundamentally use their own engines and art assets need to be made able to scale across the different spec'd machines. Your view of games development is much too simplistic.

Each platform needs optimisation time, assets selected appropriate for the platform, testing time and QA.

Better SDK tools will only expedite the time needed to get the games up at running on each SKU and these days with commercial multiplatform engines, that's hardly the critical path for development.

The fragmentation is something MS doesn't HAVE to do. It only really benefits MS marketing position.



We don't need platform wars in here, thank you very much.

I know you can't help yourself, Bits N Pieces, but kindly refrain lest you derail the thread.



This.

The Pro/X1X situation IS different because they're mid-gen consoles intended to "upscale" games developed for the base consoles.

Devs just render most games with XB1S/PS4 assets at higher res and call it a day. That doesn't impact development anywhere near as much.

A fragmented base console spec is a needless complication that requires more careful developer consideration and effort - depending on the difference in specs.
In fact I think that the "little one" will run games natively at 1080p (and upscale if connected to a.4k TV) the most powerful at 4k the CPU will be the same
 

thuway

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,168
Peoples performance and ram expectations are really out of control. I just spent 700 dollars on an RTX 2080. (Nearly) the most powerful mainstream graphics card on the market and that is 10TFLOPs of performance. Obviously architecture can change how the raw power is utilized, but it's simply unrealistic to expect the 10tflop ballpark from a console. I think we get 7-8 tops, with a much a better CPU than current gen and maybe 4-8 gigs more ram than the current line of consoles. To be honest even that feels a little high IMO.
There was no GPU on the market with 8GB of GDDR5 when PS4 launched. Also PS5 will be made a 7nm process. Finally, Nvidia teraflops don't equate to AMD performance.
 

RoninStrife

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
4,002
QUOTE="TheModestGun, post: 16101424, member: 35393"]For sure, I'm very excited to see what AMD has up there sleeves, especially with the rumors that Sony engineers are pretty directly involved with Navi.

I'm not even saying I think the system will be underpowered. Merely for people to keep their expectations on the tamer side. I would be fully content if PS5 is about a doubling of PS4 pro's power.[/QUOTE]

This. The Sony engineers working with AMD bit is quite interesting...
Not sure if this has been answered before in this thread, what was the level of involvement of Sony and the actual APU design in the PS4, and did they help at all its GPU components?