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When will the first 'next gen' console arrive?

  • H2 2019

    Votes: 638 14.1%
  • H1 2020

    Votes: 724 16.0%
  • H2 2020

    Votes: 2,813 62.2%
  • H1 2021

    Votes: 141 3.1%
  • H2 2021

    Votes: 208 4.6%

  • Total voters
    4,524
  • Poll closed .

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,913
Maryland
What about HDDs? Have they hit something of a floor? I would've thought that 2-4TB HDDs would continue to get cheaper for a while yet.

HDDs will continue to improve in top capacity, but I think the price floor is pretty well established. With SSDs, $/GB will continue to fall and we've not yet reached the point where minimum capacity SSDs are anywhere near what consoles would need for it as the sole drive included.

I am completely guessing here, but the mechanical/packaging costs of SSDs probably have a lower base than the enclosure, electromechanicals etc. associated with a traditional platter drive.
 

BreakAtmo

Member
Nov 12, 2017
12,838
Australia
HDDs will continue to improve in top capacity, but I think the price floor is pretty well established. With SSDs, $/GB will continue to fall and we've not yet reached the point where minimum capacity SSDs are anywhere near what consoles would need for it as the sole drive included.

I am completely guessing here, but the mechanical/packaging costs of SSDs probably have a lower base than the enclosure, electromechanicals etc. associated with a traditional platter drive.

How long do you think it might be before HDDs hit a capacity ceiling and SSDs actually overtake them? I've heard before that SSDs are potentially capable of storing more data than can physicality fit on a platter drive.
 

Alandring

Banned
Feb 2, 2018
1,841
Switzerland
I know the PS4 and X1 weren't sold at much of a loss - that's because both divisions were billions in the red and needed to make money fast. As far the other stuff, don't we also have 5nm and 3nm coming? And wouldn't the enormous amounts of subscription money they're raking in now qualify as a new method of getting losses under control that they (or at least Sony) didn't have in the seventh gen?
It would be better for Sony and Microsoft to invest this money on exclusives.

A $100 loss on each console would cost them 100M (the price of an AAA) for each million of console sold. If you're Sony or Microsoft, do you prefer invest 750M$ (Sony shipped 7.5M PlayStation 4 during the first FY) in selling you hardware at a loss or on 7 AAA like God of War, Spider-Man or Uncharted 4?
 

goonergaz

Member
Nov 18, 2017
1,710
It would be better for Sony and Microsoft to invest this money on exclusives.

A $100 loss on each console would cost them 100M (the price of an AAA) for each million of console sold. If you're Sony or Microsoft, do you prefer invest 750M$ (Sony shipped 7.5M PlayStation 4 during the first FY) in selling you hardware at a loss or on 7 AAA like God of War, Spider-Man or Uncharted 4?

Losses would only be at the highest at launch and then lower over time...Sony are in a strong position with software and might also use some of their advertising budget for PS5 to get a bit more of a technical edge (let's face it, they won't need to market PS5 as much as PS4). Remember, this time Sony have money in the bank, last time they didn't and were losing money badly.

I'm not suggesting big losses, but I think we could see an increase on PS4...maybe a BoM (whatever that $381 figure is above) up to $50 more than retail.
 

Alandring

Banned
Feb 2, 2018
1,841
Switzerland
Losses would only be at the highest at launch and then lower over time...Sony are in a strong position with software and might also use some of their advertising budget for PS5 to get a bit more of a technical edge (let's face it, they won't need to market PS5 as much as PS4). Remember, this time Sony have money in the bank, last time they didn't and were losing money badly.
This is why I only counted the first FY (between November 2013 and March 2014). And if they need to reduce the loss, they won't be able to be aggressive with price cuts/deals/bundles.

Selling a console with a huge loss is a big mistake than nobody will do again, I think. If you have money to spend, invest it in exclusives, you will have a better ROI.
 

goonergaz

Member
Nov 18, 2017
1,710
This is why I only counted the first FY (between November 2013 and March 2014). And if they need to reduce the loss, they won't be able to be aggressive with price cuts/deals/bundles.

Selling a console with a huge loss is a big mistake than nobody will do again, I think. If you have money to spend, invest it in exclusives, you will have a better ROI.

PS4 was making a profit within 6 months with no price drop...and who knows what Sony are thinking about to subsidise anything. Anyway, I'm not suggesting a huge loss, just maybe larger than PS4.
 

Xeontech

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,059
Happy 20k!

Also 499$ is prob going to happen.

And holiday 2019 makes more sense than spring 2020, just sayin.
 

AudiophileRS

Member
Apr 14, 2018
378
I think 16GB makes the most sense compared to 24GB ram not only from cost perspective but also because of the fact that filling 24GB of ram would just take unbearably long with max 100MB/s output of hdd.

A NAND Flash Cache (~64GB) + a HBCC Memory Controller will make for a relatively cheap and very effective buffer; think PrimoCache / AMD StoreMI / Intel Optane... but bigger and smarter.
 

BradGrenz

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,507
I watched the below vid and it compared it to TAA and checkerbording Solutions but seems like it's built into the GPU?

DLSS is basically a reconstruction technique nVidia invented as a post hoc justification for including HPC-focused tensor cores in their consumer line of GPUs. It's extremely limited in a lot of ways compared to most other reconstruction approaches for a number of reasons. First: nVidia has to profile your game using their supercomputer. If you are indie, or just not high profile enough or, god forbid, signed to a marketing deal with AMD you are not going to get DLSS support. DLSS requires specialized hardware. You are required to dedicated die space in your GPU to tenor cores that otherwise offer dubious benefits to gaming. In theory a supercomputer could be used to generate specialized reconstruction techniques that could run on normal shader hardware, but that is contrary to nVidia's business needs. DLSS only works on specified resolutions. nVidia has to create a profile for each resolution case so there is no ability to balance your resolution outside the use case they intend. Are you using an ultrawide screen resolution, or otherwise would like to target something other than official output res nVidia chose, you are SOL. You also can't use dynamic resolution to maintain performance.
 

Screen Looker

Member
Nov 17, 2018
1,963
DLSS is basically a reconstruction technique nVidia invented as a post hoc justification for including HPC-focused tensor cores in their consumer line of GPUs. It's extremely limited in a lot of ways compared to most other reconstruction approaches for a number of reasons. First: nVidia has to profile your game using their supercomputer. If you are indie, or just not high profile enough or, god forbid, signed to a marketing deal with AMD you are not going to get DLSS support. DLSS requires specialized hardware. You are required to dedicated die space in your GPU to tenor cores that otherwise offer dubious benefits to gaming. In theory a supercomputer could be used to generate specialized reconstruction techniques that could run on normal shader hardware, but that is contrary to nVidia's business needs. DLSS only works on specified resolutions. nVidia has to create a profile for each resolution case so there is no ability to balance your resolution outside the use case they intend. Are you using an ultrawide screen resolution, or otherwise would like to target something other than official output res nVidia chose, you are SOL. You also can't use dynamic resolution to maintain performance.

Thank you for the explanation! See ya in the new thread!
 

cooldawn

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,449
Of course they are, but they'll also need it to be as affordable as possible, so if we use PS4/Pro/PSVR as examples, $399 might be their ceiling, which would allow a $499 machine to be more powerful and that is where 2 SKUs might come in for Microsoft.

Assuming of course that next-gen hardware doesn't have a base $499 price.
OK, but it's just assumptions. PS5 could be more expensive than you theorise because Sony also wants the most powerful platform for the next-generation. It could be $449 or $499 or whatever Sony deem to be practical. I would have thought 1st party software would also have a relative affect on value rather than just hardware.

I don't know about that.. I'm talking about MS here.
Oh yeah I know. I just thought I would ask you the question.