PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - Post E3 2018

[VallenValiant]

Im guessing the last few 1st party exclusives will all be totally cross-gen. Maybe 1080p/30 on standard PS4, checkerboard 4k/30 on PS4 Pro, and 4K/60 on PS5 perhaps? All 3rd part games will also be cross gen for the foreseeable future until the install base gets high enough.

I'm not 100% sure if it'll be a good idea to launch with no "exclusive" 1st party PS5 titles, but a lot of stuff will simple be "play it best on PS5" vs requiring a PS5 to play. It's all about buying into the PlayStatiom ecosystem and building of your library now, no more obvious generational cutoffs (especially for things like indies and smaller PSN titles).

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That would only make sense if Sony DIDN'T suddenly go into radio silence in terms of new game announcements.

If a game is going to be cross-gen, there is no reason to hide it from the public. The only reason Sony stopped talking about new unannounced games this year, is if they are PS5 exclusives.

 

[Vulcan Logic]

Brad Sams mentioned that the Scarlett Cloud box will have a chip in it that's built internally and that Hololens will have some internally built components as well. What this makes me wonder is that if that'll transfer over to the next gen Xbox as well.

It's most likely still going to have components from AMD but what if they mix and matched components they're working on internally as well.

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Could MS use some of these E2 chips & Edge architecture in scarlet that MS & Qualcomm were testing

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/06/18/microsoft_e2_edge_windows_10/

 

[Kyoufu]

If a game is going to be cross-gen, there is no reason to hide it from the public.

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There is one big reason being that the PS5 is unannounced, so anything about it is hush-hush.

 

[kc44135]

Everything that is already announced would run on PS4. There is no value argument to upgrade for the average gamer. No, ERA doesn't count, because we saw that PS4Pro is only sold at a ratio of 1 to 4 to regular PS4s. Enthusiasts can't be the only people Sony need to convince to upgrade, Sony NEED to make PS5 exclusives, because Third Party certainly would not. It is Sony's responsibility to make the best exclusives they can, exclusives that REQUIRE a PS5 to run.


I guess you are talking about how PS4 bottlenecks transfer speeds of installed SSDs? Well I agree with you there, they should allow it somehow in next gen. PS4 has a lot of strange hardware decisions that made sense on release, but had since caused issues several years down the line. We can only hope that Sony future-proof the PS5 a little.

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You're really pushing this narrative that PS5 needs something amazing to launch with, but it really doesn't man, neither in 2019 or 2020, and it probably won't have anything of the sort, either. Need I remind you that PS4 launched with Knack and Killzone? Knack and Killzone, dude. I don't think you could ask for worse or more lackluster launch titles. X1 had what? Ryse: Son of Rome? Lmao.

Console launches are almost always lackluster, and almost always carried by cross-gen stuff for quite awhile. Launching a PS5 with BC and maybe some PS5 patches for games like TLOU 2 provides a better launch line-up than PS4 could have ever dreamed of. Also, the people buying any Console at launch are absolutely the forumdwellers like us. Joe Schmoe won't buy PS5 till he gets a huge price cut or a nice bundle. The promise that PS5 will get games that PS4 won't will be enough to convince most to buy it eventually anyway (that's why Pro and X sales are so low).

PS5 needs exclusives, sure, but it doesn't need some massive line-up of them at launch. It will sell fine without them as long as people know there are amazing things on the horizon that they can only play on PS5. I'm sure Sony will have something to launch PS5 with, but not the heavy hitters, and that's regardless of when it launches. Those will come later, as they always do, and PS5 will be fine for it.

 

[BreakAtmo]

OK so you are saying Sony will charge more if the PS5 will release in 2019 or that we will get worse hardware to keep the price down? Those are two different things. I would gladly pay more, but they seem afraid to go over $400 again.

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I'm not saying either, just starting the technological facts as we currently know them. Sony could go cheaper and weaker in 2019 to improve yields. They could go hard on power, damn the yields and sell at $499, reasoning that brand power and the lack of competition could make $499 more palatable. Or take a larger loss, with the head start making up for it - based on prior sales numbers, a holiday 2019 PS5 would probably sell about 8-10 million units by the time Scarlet was released holiday 2020.

Or just wait until 2020 to save money and guarantee a better launch lineup. We can't know their thinking, at least not yet.

 

[Xeontech]

I've been a 2019 believer since.. whenever I decided to put a flag in predicting it - for the reasons below:

1. The 'length' of the generation. Anecdotally speaking - on the first-party side it was definitely seen that the previous gen was too long. It was 7 years for the PS3->PS4. A PS4->PS5 in 2019 would be 6 years.
2. Symmetry. With PS4 in 2013, PS4 Pro in 2016, and PS5 in 2019, it pegs the 'mid-gen' squarely in the exact middle of the base model and next-gen model, and that sets a good timing precedent for future audiences.
3. The 'cross-gen' reality. Early PS4/XB1 was wrought with many, many games that were available for both generation of consoles, since AAA games are expensive and most 3rd-party publishers will not risk releasing a game strictly for the highest spec consoles. That means even if PS5 and XB2 are released in 2019, there'll be approximately a 2-year maturation period as games transition from cross-gen to next-gen. IMO, cross-gen actually incentives that next-gen consoles are released sooner than later - since it means that the current-gen console base would still be relatively healthy while next-gen transition are going on.
4. Sony's lack of announcements this E3. Say what you want about Sony - they've never been gun-shy at revealing games early. While it's true that TLOU2, GOT and DS could very well be 2020 games, there's actually enough empty space in the 2019-2020 space of games that they could afford one or two announcements but there was none of it even at their biggest stage of the year. IMO, that means that they were not able to - since any game that isn't announced at this point ( AAA-level ) are PS5 only games.
5. The 'success' of the PS4. Unlike some of you, I believe that the success of the PS4 is all the more reason to accelerate the release of the PS5. I believe that the most rational and ideal business execution of the PS5 is not to wait until PS4 is sunsetting in it final year, but to release in the first year of its final 3-years. That way, PS5 will benefit from a relatively mature 2-year cross-gen period where PS4 is still a healthy console rather than one-year good and one-year sluggish. And I definitely think that 2019 will be "Year One" of PS4's final 3 years of significant software support.
6. I don't believe that next-gen console are defined by leaps in hardware technology - but in the best business timing that matches with a significant enough improvement to be able to sell the next flagship box. You need both - and while 2019 might not necessarily be the best timing from a pure technology standpoint, it'll be enough imo - for something that is 8-10x more powerful than base PS4. Enough to sell a generational leap.
7. MID-GEN. DOES. NOT. EXTEND. THE. LENGTH. OF. A. CONSOLE. GENERATION.

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Great points. There's nothing available in 2020 that isn't already available holiday 2019.

 

[Imitation Of Life]

Great points. There's nothing available in 2020 that isn't already available holiday 2019.

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Yeah it will just cost more. Not a small consideration in the console abuse.

 

[Kyoufu]

Great points. There's nothing available in 2020 that isn't already available holiday 2019.

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Wouldn't Zen 3 on the 7nm+ node be available in 2020?

 

[RoboPlato]

Wouldn't Zen 3 on the 7nm+ node be available in 2020?

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7nm+ has a lot of unknowns in terms of yields and will likely have a longer time to ramp up production so while it'll technically be available it probably wouldn't be ready for large scale production for at least a year.

 

[VallenValiant]

You're really pushing this narrative that PS5 needs something amazing to launch with, but it really doesn't man, neither in 2019 or 2020, and it probably won't have anything of the sort, either. Need I remind you that PS4 launched with Knack and Killzone? Knack and Killzone, dude. I don't think you could ask for worse or more lackluster launch titles. X1 had what? Ryse: Son of Rome? Lmao.

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A good launch title is more important for PS5 because the suspected backwards compatibility would mean there will be nearly no third party games that couldn't also run on PS4 for quite a while. And Sony can't expect MS to recreate the XB1 launch disaster for Scarlet, at least I hope they are not that foolish.

 

[Tetrinski]

You're really pushing this narrative that PS5 needs something amazing to launch with, but it really doesn't man, neither in 2019 or 2020, and it probably won't have anything of the sort, either. Need I remind you that PS4 launched with Knack and Killzone? Knack and Killzone, dude. I don't think you could ask for worse or more lackluster launch titles. X1 had what? Ryse: Son of Rome? Lmao.

Console launches are almost always lackluster, and almost always carried by cross-gen stuff for quite awhile. Launching a PS5 with BC and maybe some PS5 patches for games like TLOU 2 provides a better launch line-up than PS4 could have ever dreamed of. Also, the people buying any Console at launch are absolutely the forumdwellers like us. Joe Schmoe won't buy PS5 till he gets a huge price cut or a nice bundle. The promise that PS5 will get games that PS4 won't will be enough to convince most to buy it eventually anyway (that's why Pro and X sales are so low).

PS5 needs exclusives, sure, but it doesn't need some massive line-up of them at launch. It will sell fine without them as long as people know there are amazing things on the horizon that they can only play on PS5. I'm sure Sony will have something to launch PS5 with, but not the heavy hitters, and that's regardless of when it launches. Those will come later, as they always do, and PS5 will be fine for it.

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Xbox One also launched with Forza 5, Dead Rising 3 and got Titanfall in March. It had a better line up than PS4 until 2016 or so.

 

[Xeontech]

Wouldn't Zen 3 on the 7nm+ node be available in 2020?

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Too early. 2021/22 more likely. But who knows really

 

[Anthony Hopkins]

After watching the recent nvidia siggraph conference,
It seems like Ray tracing is the future.
It seems strange that the next gen consoles wont have this tech that seems it will likely be possible on nvidia cards soon.

And its not just nvidia, UE4 is doing these ray traced demos and Microsoft has made there ray tracing API , DXR.
Seems odd for these companies to be putting in this work if next gen consoles wont use it.

 

[VallenValiant]

After watching the recent nvidia siggraph conference,
It seems like Ray tracing is the future.
It seems strange that the next gen consoles wont have this tech that seems it will likely be possible on nvidia cards soon.

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Game consoles have not been cutting edge for a long time. The sooner ERA accepts this, the better. I haven't any idea why people still hope for some gaming PC spec.

 

[Dave.]

After watching the recent nvidia siggraph conference,
It seems like Ray tracing is the future.
It seems strange that the next gen consoles wont have this tech that seems it will likely be possible on nvidia cards soon.

And its not just nvidia, UE4 is doing these ray traced demos and Microsoft has made there ray tracing API , DXR.
Seems odd for these companies to be putting in this work if next gen consoles wont use it.

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I'm not expecting AMD to have completely ignored the possibilities of raytracing.

 

[eathdemon]

Game consoles have not been cutting edge for a long time. The sooner ERA accepts this, the better. I haven't any idea why people still hope for some gaming PC spec.

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the 360 was prity top teir when it came out, though last gen both were highly conservative. of the two, the only one I could see doing cuting edge is ms.

 

[Anthony Hopkins]

Game consoles have not been cutting edge for a long time. The sooner ERA accepts this, the better. I haven't any idea why people still hope for some gaming PC spec.

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At the siggraph conference when jenson asked an engineer called Kim what do you think? Kim said that in the next 10yrs games and movies will look the same and absolute photorealism is in our grasp now"
Well if thats true it wont just be some add on for high end pc users, the vast majority of games will be designed for the least powerful next Xbox and PlayStation

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

After watching the recent nvidia siggraph conference,
It seems like Ray tracing is the future.
It seems strange that the next gen consoles wont have this tech that seems it will likely be possible on nvidia cards soon.

And its not just nvidia, UE4 is doing these ray traced demos and Microsoft has made there ray tracing API , DXR.
Seems odd for these companies to be putting in this work if next gen consoles wont use it.

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A fully raytraced lighting model on console-class hardware is still 7-10 years away.

So there's little reason for next-gen consoles to attempt to chase raytracing when even with the most ambitious estimates of their performance level realised, they aren't even going to be powerful enough to reap all the benefits that full raytracing will bring.

I don't imagine that specialised raytracing hardware on the GPU will be compatible with traditional rendering methods, so opting to include it in PS5 would mean sacrificing traditional rendering performance for a goal that is fundamentally unattainable... not really a smart move.

Every quote about raytracing from people in the know is that raytracing is for next-next-gen, so there's little reason to expect much in the way of the hardware innovations that facilitate it, unless developers determine other uses for it that can still be leveraged in existing / next-gen games, e.g. Inference-based techniques for lighting, AA, animation, etc..

 

[Anthony Hopkins]

A fully raytraced lighting model on console-class hardware is still 7-10 years away.

So there's little reason for next-gen consoles to attempt to chase raytracing when even with the most ambitious estimates of their performance level realised, they aren't even going to be powerful enough to reap all the benefits that full raytracing will bring.

I don't imagine that specialised raytracing hardware on the GPU will be compatible with traditional rendering methods, so opting to include it in PS5 would mean sacrificing traditional rendering performance for a goal that is fundamentally unattainable... not really a smart move.

Every quote about raytracing from people in the know is that raytracing is for next-next-gen, so there's little reason to expect much in the way of the hardware innovations that facilitate it, unless developers determine other uses for it that can still be leveraged in existing / next-gen games, e.g. Inference-based techniques for lighting, AA, animation, etc..

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I see, Jensen makes it sound like that its coming very soon in the industry.
But I think these RTX cards will be used only for making cgi movies and not have games designed for them.

 

[Xeontech]

I see, Jensen makes it sound like that its coming very soon in the industry.
But I think these RTX cards will be used only for making cgi movies and not have games designed for them.

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Ya, it's exciting. But won't be next gen. Next next gen more possible, even then a decade later, full ray tracing in games will be limited somewhat.

But it is coming in our lifetime.

 

[BreakAtmo]

Game consoles have not been cutting edge for a long time. The sooner ERA accepts this, the better. I haven't any idea why people still hope for some gaming PC spec.

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They don't need to be cutting-edge, and they won't be, especially if they come holiday 2020, likely after the release of the RTX 30-series. 12TF plus a few raytracing-focused customisations to the GPU would probably be enough for raytracing to at least have a small presence, with traditional lighting techniques still doing most of the work. No matter what, full ray-tracing ain't happening until PS6 rolls around.

 

[kc44135]

A good launch title is more important for PS5 because the suspected backwards compatibility would mean there will be nearly no third party games that couldn't also run on PS4 for quite a while. And Sony can't expect MS to recreate the XB1 launch disaster for Scarlet, at least I hope they are not that foolish.

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Most third-party games ran on both PS3 and PS4. There was a fairly weak line-up of PS4 only games for almost two years. It didn't stop people from buying PS4 in droves. I don't see your point. :p

Xbox One also launched with Forza 5, Dead Rising 3 and got Titanfall in March. It had a better line up than PS4 until 2016 or so.

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Oh, well, that kinda further proves my point then, no? Even with better exclusives, X1 didn't outsell PS4. Exclusives aren't the only thing that matters in Console sales.

 

[gremlinz1982]

You're really pushing this narrative that PS5 needs something amazing to launch with, but it really doesn't man, neither in 2019 or 2020, and it probably won't have anything of the sort, either. Need I remind you that PS4 launched with Knack and Killzone? Knack and Killzone, dude. I don't think you could ask for worse or more lackluster launch titles. X1 had what? Ryse: Son of Rome? Lmao.

Console launches are almost always lackluster, and almost always carried by cross-gen stuff for quite awhile. Launching a PS5 with BC and maybe some PS5 patches for games like TLOU 2 provides a better launch line-up than PS4 could have ever dreamed of. Also, the people buying any Console at launch are absolutely the forumdwellers like us. Joe Schmoe won't buy PS5 till he gets a huge price cut or a nice bundle. The promise that PS5 will get games that PS4 won't will be enough to convince most to buy it eventually anyway (that's why Pro and X sales are so low).

PS5 needs exclusives, sure, but it doesn't need some massive line-up of them at launch. It will sell fine without them as long as people know there are amazing things on the horizon that they can only play on PS5. I'm sure Sony will have something to launch PS5 with, but not the heavy hitters, and that's regardless of when it launches. Those will come later, as they always do, and PS5 will be fine for it.

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What they launched with did not matter in light of Microsoft's shocking E3 conference or the fact that the Xbox One was bundled with Kinect, was weaker and cost $100 more.

 

[MrKlaw]

I don't see RTX getting any traction if you put it in an Xbox and only top end nvidia cards. If it isn't in more PC GPUs or PS5, you'll get some hairworks type adaptations but nothing that actually leveraged it as a core element of the game engine

Just feels too early - it would also mean discrete GPU - no APU with Zen + nvidia, which means expensive

It's a cool thing but not for next gen

 

[kc44135]

What they launched with did not matter in light of Microsoft's shocking E3 conference or the fact that the Xbox One was bundled with Kinect, was weaker and cost $100 more.

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Yes, but my discussion with the other user is centered around his argument that people won't buy PS5 without a ton of exclusive games that don't also play on PS4. I'm pointing to PS4's early as proof that is incorrect. A leap in hardware, and the promise of exclusive games to come was enough to get people to jump in, regardless of a lacking exclusive line-up.

 

[gremlinz1982]

Yes, but my discussion with the other user is centered around his argument that people won't buy PS5 without a ton of exclusive games that don't also play on PS4. I'm pointing to PS4's early as proof that is incorrect. A leap in hardware, and the promise of exclusive games to come was enough to get people to jump in, regardless of a lacking exclusive line-up.

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It depends on how you are looking at things.

I once said on two different threads that I think that going forward Microsoft is in a far better place than Sony is just based on the framework that they have currently put in. Going to what Sony has done a lot of and what I see some advocating in this thread is that they maybe come up with a few exclusives and some remasters for games like The Last of Us 2.

I am under no illusion that Sony will not sell a lot of consoles at launch regardless of what they have as launch titles, but this is not the only thing in their business strategy that has to make sense going forward because a console is only a gateway for you to make money. Will there be a demand by consumers to have backwards compatibility and the availability to carry your games forward like in PC or Xbox? Will they have a product similar to EA Access Origins and Xbox Game Pass? Or will they keep churning out remaster after remaster?

 

[MrKlaw]

It depends on how you are looking at things.

I once said on two different threads that I think that going forward Microsoft is in a far better place than Sony is just based on the framework that they have currently put in. Going to what Sony has done a lot of and what I see some advocating in this thread is that they maybe come up with a few exclusives and some remasters for games like The Last of Us 2.

I am under no illusion that Sony will not sell a lot of consoles at launch regardless of what they have as launch titles, but this is not the only thing in their business strategy that has to make sense going forward because a console is only a gateway for you to make money. Will there be a demand by consumers to have backwards compatibility and the availability to carry your games forward like in PC or Xbox? Will they have a product similar to EA Access Origins and Xbox Game Pass? Or will they keep churning out remaster after remaster?

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If EA access and game pass are still leaving MS being outsold every month, why is that putting them in a better position for next gen?

 

[Cyclopsfire21]

I've been a 2019 believer since.. whenever I decided to put a flag in predicting it - for the reasons below:

1. The 'length' of the generation. Anecdotally speaking - on the first-party side it was definitely seen that the previous gen was too long. It was 7 years for the PS3->PS4. A PS4->PS5 in 2019 would be 6 years.
2. Symmetry. With PS4 in 2013, PS4 Pro in 2016, and PS5 in 2019, it pegs the 'mid-gen' squarely in the exact middle of the base model and next-gen model, and that sets a good timing precedent for future audiences.
3. The 'cross-gen' reality. Early PS4/XB1 was wrought with many, many games that were available for both generation of consoles, since AAA games are expensive and most 3rd-party publishers will not risk releasing a game strictly for the highest spec consoles. That means even if PS5 and XB2 are released in 2019, there'll be approximately a 2-year maturation period as games transition from cross-gen to next-gen. IMO, cross-gen actually incentives that next-gen consoles are released sooner than later - since it means that the current-gen console base would still be relatively healthy while next-gen transition are going on.
4. Sony's lack of announcements this E3. Say what you want about Sony - they've never been gun-shy at revealing games early. While it's true that TLOU2, GOT and DS could very well be 2020 games, there's actually enough empty space in the 2019-2020 space of games that they could afford one or two announcements but there was none of it even at their biggest stage of the year. IMO, that means that they were not able to - since any game that isn't announced at this point ( AAA-level ) are PS5 only games.
5. The 'success' of the PS4. Unlike some of you, I believe that the success of the PS4 is all the more reason to accelerate the release of the PS5. I believe that the most rational and ideal business execution of the PS5 is not to wait until PS4 is sunsetting in it final year, but to release in the first year of its final 3-years. That way, PS5 will benefit from a relatively mature 2-year cross-gen period where PS4 is still a healthy console rather than one-year good and one-year sluggish. And I definitely think that 2019 will be "Year One" of PS4's final 3 years of significant software support.
6. I don't believe that next-gen console are defined by leaps in hardware technology - but in the best business timing that matches with a significant enough improvement to be able to sell the next flagship box. You need both - and while 2019 might not necessarily be the best timing from a pure technology standpoint, it'll be enough imo - for something that is 8-10x more powerful than base PS4. Enough to sell a generational leap.
7. MID-GEN. DOES. NOT. EXTEND. THE. LENGTH. OF. A. CONSOLE. GENERATION.

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*Chef's kiss* This Post.
You could even add more for the 2019 bucket.

1. Competiton. With Google eyeing the console market and switch/Xbox being more competitive, locking in consumers is more important than before. A 2019 launch puts them in the driver seat by default even if they have to sacrifice power.

2. Ps4 Hacked. Though I doubt its that important to Sony, piracy is now available on Ps4(without online). For them who makes single-player experiences, this is bad news. This shouldn't influence PS5 plans too much but should be considered.

The only problem with 2019 is production. If you can't keep the consoles supplied well is there any reason to be early to market? I mean look at the switch, It was hard to find one its first year and it sold well but by the time it became readily available its demand kinda slowed( lack of games too).

 

[gremlinz1982]

If EA access and game pass are still leaving MS being outsold every month, why is that putting them in a better position for next gen?

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I think that Microsoft had the right idea implemented the wrong way when they revealed the Xbox One at E3. They were looking at what was being done in other entertainment spectra and wondering whether that was something that could be implemented in the gaming sphere. Their game share feature is not that different to what Netflix do with people sharing the same account, but they got greedy trying to almost implement an online pass like move to try and capture some sales off the used game market.

EA Access and Xbox Game Pass are only going to grow from where they are at right now. Digital download uptake has also been on the increase dwarfing what it was in the last generation. It is not a given that these will make the Xbox better in the net generation and I for one will never bet on Microsoft outselling Sony next generation. What these will do, barring another disaster class launch presentation is narrow the gap.

If Microsoft can bring in majority of their existing first party titles to Game Pass in the next generation and continue to release all their first party titles on that platform who is to say that that is not something that will appeal to a lot of people that skipped this generation? I know of people that were leaning towards the Playstation 5 but will skip it if it does not have a subscription service that allows for local downloads at a similar price.

These consoles maybe launch in the second half of 2020, with tech getting better who is to assume that the offering from Microsoft will not be appealing to more if their console is competitively priced compared to the PS5?

There is also more money to be made of subscription services that there is to be made off the traditional model where games are competing for users. 20 million users on game pass is $2.4 billion a year, this should be what any company is targeting. EA is there, Microsoft is also betting big there and it allows for so much wiggle room to do other things.

 

[Theonik]

Knack 3 bayybeeeeee

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Only if they call it "Knack3red".

 

[Sid]

Knack 3 bayybeeeeee

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Knack 2 Remastered for 60 Dollars

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

I see, Jensen makes it sound like that its coming very soon in the industry.
But I think these RTX cards will be used only for making cgi movies and not have games designed for them.

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It's coming to the industry, yes... in cards sold for thousands of dollars to professional users for use in stuff like CGI.

We won't have hardware powerful enough for full raytracing within the consumer segment at the mid range (i.e. console class) for another decade.

Note: Prior to the recent RTX/DXR/ML-based denoising innovations, it would have been maybe 20-30 years away.

They don't need to be cutting-edge, and they won't be, especially if they come holiday 2020, likely after the release of the RTX 30-series. 12TF plus a few raytracing-focused customisations to the GPU would probably be enough for raytracing to at least have a small presence, with traditional lighting techniques still doing most of the work. No matter what, full ray-tracing ain't happening until PS6 rolls around.

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I still question whether hybrid-raytracing approaches in consoles next-gen is still a bit of a pipedream. The boxes based on APU designs probably still won't be powerful enough, due to the need to balance the projected use of raytracing customization and its associated die area cost, against the need for a big enough jump in traditional GPU performance.

I'm not covinced they have a sufficient enough silicon and TDP budget to include raytracing customizations that would be meaningful. More general purpose matrix multiplication cores to accelerate inference-based techniques, however, could be much more impactful, in my mind.

 

[BreakAtmo]

I still question whether hybrid-raytracing approaches in consoles next-gen is still a bit of a pipedream. The boxes based on APU designs probably still won't be powerful enough, due to the need to balance the projected use of raytracing customization and its associated die area cost, against the need for a big enough jump in traditional GPU performance.

I'm not covinced they have a sufficient enough silicon and TDP budget to include raytracing customizations that would be meaningful. More general purpose matrix multiplication cores to accelerate inference-based techniques, however, could be much more impactful, in my mind.

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You're probably right - if raytracing is used at all I would expect it to be some very minimal, experimental applications. That said, some of the things we're seeing in upcoming PS4 games would have been considered flat-out impossible on a Jaguar CPU a few years ago, and here they are anyway. I do wonder if Naughty Dog and similar devs might shock us in 2025 or thereabouts.

 

[kc44135]

It depends on how you are looking at things.

I once said on two different threads that I think that going forward Microsoft is in a far better place than Sony is just based on the framework that they have currently put in. Going to what Sony has done a lot of and what I see some advocating in this thread is that they maybe come up with a few exclusives and some remasters for games like The Last of Us 2.

I am under no illusion that Sony will not sell a lot of consoles at launch regardless of what they have as launch titles, but this is not the only thing in their business strategy that has to make sense going forward because a console is only a gateway for you to make money. Will there be a demand by consumers to have backwards compatibility and the availability to carry your games forward like in PC or Xbox? Will they have a product similar to EA Access Origins and Xbox Game Pass? Or will they keep churning out remaster after remaster?

Click to shrink...

I do expect PS5 to have at least PS4 BC. I would outright drop the brand without it at this point, and consider it essential. It's pretty guaranteed to be there, tho. It's just something Sony needs to do at this point, and I'm sure they're aware of this. As for Gamepass, I believe Sony is already preparing to turn PS NOW into an equivalent of that service, as rumours suggest it will offer full game downloads.

I also really don't know that exclusives will even matter that much between systems anymore. Speaking to next-gen specifically, I think we're in a different era now with these systems, and I think for many, simply staying in the PS ecosystem could be more appealing than playing exclusives. That's why BC is so important, since it locks people in. People can carry forward all their purchases, all their save games, everything to the next system with improvements, and that coupled with PS's brand power and nostalgia is simply going to make it more appealing than Xbox, no matter what they do next-gen.

I'm not really biased towards one company or another, but I do think this gen was perhaps the most important to win ever, and Sony absolutely demolished MS here. I really do honestly think that all they need to do is release PS5 at $399 with specs roughly in the same ballpark as Scarlett, and with full BC for PS4 games, and they win, regardless of exclusives or other features, Imo. They have the brand power and momentum, and all they have to do is lock in that massive user base they have now.

 

[Tetrinski]

Most third-party games ran on both PS3 and PS4. There was a fairly weak line-up of PS4 only games for almost two years. It didn't stop people from buying PS4 in droves. I don't see your point. :p
Oh, well, that kinda further proves my point then, no? Even with better exclusives, X1 didn't outsell PS4. Exclusives aren't the only thing that matters in Console sales.

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I mean, yes, if the other company's launch is a fucking disaster. Normally exclusives play a crucial role even though things like price, promotion, hardware or services matter as well. But nothing matters more than the software; even with their lackluster line up at launch, Sony had promises like Uncharted 4, Bloodborne and others, as well as the better version of multiplats.

 

[kc44135]

I mean, yes, if the other company's launch is a fucking disaster. Normally exclusives play a crucial role even though things like price, promotion, hardware or services matter as well. But nothing matters more than the software; even with their lackluster line up at launch, Sony had promises like Uncharted 4, Bloodborne and others, as well as the better version of multiplats.

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Yes, but that user was arguing that unless killer exclusives that you couldn't play on PS4 were available on PS5 at or near launch, people just wouldn't buy the system. I think that's wrong, and that simply the promise of PS5 exclusives in the future and dramatically better versions of multiplat games would be enough to get people on board, especially with full PS4 BC.

 

[VallenValiant]

Yes, but that user was arguing that unless killer exclusives that you couldn't play on PS4 were available on PS5 at or near launch, people just wouldn't buy the system. I think that's wrong, and that simply the promise of PS5 exclusives in the future and dramatically better versions of multiplat games would be enough to get people on board, especially with full PS4 BC.

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On there is no doubt that Sony has the advantage leading to next gen. But I doubt Sony would just leave things as they are and not counting on MS trying something to shift the scales.

Yes, if everything is the same and both sides end up releasing similar hardware and similar games next gen, then Sony wins. But hardware battles are rarely that simple. No one really expected this gen to end up the way it did, not even Sony. And with Playstation being such a large part of the company after reorganisation, i doubt Sony would assume an easy upcoming victory. It isn't a matter of who wins, but what Sony would do to ensure the best odds. That's why I am suggesting Sony isn't going to just release Knack 2 for the only PS5 exclusive. Scarlet is going to come out of the gate swinging, and Sony is going to leverage everything they have to bring it down.

 

[Deleted member 22585]

On there is no doubt that Sony has the advantage leading to next gen. But I doubt Sony would just leave things as they are and not counting on MS trying something to shift the scales.

Yes, if everything is the same and both sides end up releasing similar hardware and similar games next gen, then Sony wins. But hardware battles are rarely that simple. No one really expected this gen to end up the way it did, not even Sony. And with Playstation being such a large part of the company after reorganisation, i doubt Sony would assume an easy upcoming victory. It isn't a matter of who wins, but what Sony would do to ensure the best odds. That's why I am suggesting Sony isn't going to just release Knack 2 for the only PS5 exclusive. Scarlet is going to come out of the gate swinging, and Sony is going to leverage everything they have to bring it down.

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This. MS has improved their image drastically compared to the beginning of the gen and have acquired studios that are 100% working on next gen games. They showed that this business is very important to them, they will come out swinging. No way Sony doesn't know that and takes them easy.

 

[JustAnotherOne]

Well,I sure hope my desired specs would be possible in late 2019 (still team 2020 btw):
APU:

Zen 2 variant clocked at 3.0ghz hopefully 1 CCX consists of 8 core/16 threads

Navi GPU clocked at 1.5Ghz capable of 13.82TF as DF assumed was possible if Navi will manage to break the 64CU limit (80CU,8 disabled for yields leaving 72CU)

Unified pool of between 16 to 32 GB of GDDR6 and I really hope they will go with at least 16Gbps modules for bandwidth if they are going for low amount of 16GB.

Other:

HDD 2TB (no SSHD/SSD dreams from me)

BD XL drive

HDMI 2.1

4 USB 3.1 gen 2 ports,preferably type-C

Wi-Fi 802.11ax (very unlikely,especially if we are talking 2019 launch)

Some VR stuff built in to simplify the set-up experience,I guess it would mean an additional HDMI 2.1 port or maybe high speed USB-C port if they go with the new standard.

Please make it happen Sony :( to be honest I really don't think it's possible hitting that in 2019 for 400$,maybe 500$,maybe.

 

[Tetrinski]

Yes, but that user was arguing that unless killer exclusives that you couldn't play on PS4 were available on PS5 at or near launch, people just wouldn't buy the system. I think that's wrong, and that simply the promise of PS5 exclusives in the future and dramatically better versions of multiplat games would be enough to get people on board, especially with full PS4 BC.

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It'd probably depend on what Xbox has. If they don't fuck up and both offer attractive consoles, the one with the killer apps will... well, kill.

 

[kc44135]

It'd probably depend on what Xbox has. If they don't fuck up and both offer attractive consoles, the one with the killer apps will... well, kill.

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On there is no doubt that Sony has the advantage leading to next gen. But I doubt Sony would just leave things as they are and not counting on MS trying something to shift the scales.

Yes, if everything is the same and both sides end up releasing similar hardware and similar games next gen, then Sony wins. But hardware battles are rarely that simple. No one really expected this gen to end up the way it did, not even Sony. And with Playstation being such a large part of the company after reorganisation, i doubt Sony would assume an easy upcoming victory. It isn't a matter of who wins, but what Sony would do to ensure the best odds. That's why I am suggesting Sony isn't going to just release Knack 2 for the only PS5 exclusive. Scarlet is going to come out of the gate swinging, and Sony is going to leverage everything they have to bring it down.

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I think both of you are drastically overestimating the value of exclusives, especially with regards to next-gen. I think most people are honestly just going to stick with the ecosystem they invested the most in, regardless of what the competition offers.

 

[Deleted member 22585]

I think both of you are drastically overestimating the value of exclusives, especially with regards to next-gen. I think most people are honestly just going to stick with the ecosystem they invested the most in, regardless of what the competition offers.

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I think that this gen was very important because we can assume that from here on, BC will be a given. That gives more value to your purchase history and makes it more unlikely for people to change ecosystems. But the whole package counts. Cool new features, power, price etc. influence the buying decision as well.
And exclusives are one important part because people know that Sony for example has a history of great exclusives and consumers will remember God of War, TLOUII, Uncharted, Spiderman etc. when they choose a console. Nobody wants to miss out on good games (that also justify your buying-decision.)

 

[RevengeTaken]

Guys, is there any chance to see a 18-20teraflops console in 2021? both ms and sony.

 

[BreakAtmo]

Guys, is there any chance to see a 18-20teraflops console in 2021? both ms and sony.

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I'm no expert but I'm guessing hell no. Them waiting until 2021 is unlikely in and of itself. If they did, it would probably be a 7nm+ Zen 3+Next-gen GPU box, but that would probably be more like 15-17TF compared to the 11-13TF we're probably looking at.

 

[Deleted member 22585]

I'm no expert but I'm guessing hell no. Them waiting until 2021 is unlikely in and of itself. If they did, it would probably be a 7nm+ Zen 3+Next-gen GPU box, but that would probably be more like 15-17TF compared to the 11-13TF we're probably looking at.

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This. BUT I think we will get another mid-gen update in 2023 which maybe could come close.

 

[BubblegumNemesis]

Guys, is there any chance to see a 18-20teraflops console in 2021? both ms and sony.

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That is a bit unlikely TBH.

 

[Carn]

BUT I think we will get another mid-gen update in 2023 which maybe could come close.

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Why? The mid-gen update we got was to cater to 4K TV-owners. I can't see 8K becoming mainstream anytime soon, not to mention what that would mean for the hardware.

 

[kc44135]

Yeah, I'm not sure we'll see another mid-gen refresh this time. These new Consoles will already be pushing for "true 4K" and all that. I just don't really see the point, aside from maybe trying to push for a 60 FPS Console. But, that's harder to market and probably much harder for devs to deliver on than 4K was for Pro/X.

 

[BreakAtmo]

Why? The mid-gen update we got was to cater to 4K TV-owners. I can't see 8K becoming mainstream anytime soon, not to mention what that would mean for the hardware.

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8K doesn't have to be the selling point, it could be something else. Maybe just a general ability to play games uncompromised - if a lot of next-gen games let you pick between framerate, resolution and visuals, a mid-gen refresh could let you play everything at 4K60 with the best visuals. 'With The PS5 Pro, You Don't Need To Choose'.

That said, it would need a decent change in process node, and that's hardly guaranteed.

 

[Deleted member 22585]

Why? The mid-gen update we got was to cater to 4K TV-owners. I can't see 8K becoming mainstream anytime soon, not to mention what that would mean for the hardware.

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Because it was successful this time around. You have a certain percentage of costumers that will buy your console at launch and then the upgrade some years later. It will also have a positive effect because the gen stays "fresh" and the visuals don't get dated as fast. It gives the consumer more options and you can cater to two different segments of the market.