PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - Post E3 2018

When will the first 'next gen' console arrive?

  • H2 2019

    Votes: 638 14.1%
  • H1 2020

    Votes: 724 16.0%
  • H2 2020

    Votes: 2,813 62.2%
  • H1 2021

    Votes: 141 3.1%
  • H2 2021

    Votes: 208 4.6%

  • Total voters
    4,524
  • Poll closed .
Feb 10, 2018
11,697
Bethesda is claiming that they don't have devkits. They could be lying, but I don't think so. They are likely doing what Squaresoft did with FFX prior to PS2's release; making the game before the hardware details were known.
The are probably desiging the games on a vega 56, amd 2200 apu cpu and 8gb ddr4.
And hoping next gen will be even more powerful then that so optimising and polishing would be easier and they could push res/framerate higher.
 

8byte

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,483
Kansas
That was a simple upgrade that was just a risk regarding costs which paid off. Anything like different/faster GPU/CPU just simply isn't happening over a slight overclock.
I’m confused as to why you responded agreeing with my post?

I literally spelled out that I was speaking to easily movable targets like memory or storage, and not significant changes like CPU / GPU.
 

vivftp

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,730
Just curious since there's all this talk about Sony working closely with AMD on Navi, for PS3 BC would it be easier for Sony to just try and brute force it with the raw power of the PS5, or is it even remotely possible that tech from Cell is being implemented into the PS5 to make BC possible?
 

Kleegamefan

Member
Dec 16, 2017
274
Just curious since there's all this talk about Sony working closely with AMD on Navi, for PS3 BC would it be easier for Sony to just try and brute force it with the raw power of the PS5, or is it even remotely possible that tech from Cell is being implemented into the PS5 to make BC possible?

Well I’m not sure how complicated it would be to emulate CELL from a software standpoint, but I am sure PS5 CPU will have enough brute strength from a hardware standpoint.

I will refer to this excellent post by backtovioletroad who explains this in great detail:


Well theoretically each Zen core can perform four times as many single-precision floating-point operations per clock as a Jaguar core. In actual use the performance difference isn't quite that extreme, but it's still large. And the Zen cores in a next gen console would likely be clocked faster than the Jaguar cores in Xbox One X.

Lets compare theoretical single-precision floating-point operations per second of CPUs (not GPUs)

Xbox || 2.9 GFLOPS
PlayStation 2 || 6.2 GFLOPS
Nintendo Switch || 65.3 GFLOPS
Xbox 360 || 76.8 GFLOPS
PlayStation 4 || 102.4 GFLOPS
Xbox One || 112.0 GFLOPS
PlayStation 4 Pro || 136.3 GFLOPS
Xbox One X || 147.2 GFLOPS
PlayStation 3 || 204.8 GFLOPS
Zhongshan Subor Z || 384.0 GFLOPS

Hypothetical Next Gen 8 core Zen @ 3.0 GHz || 768.0 GFLOPS

Per Digital Foundry a Raven Ridge APU (4 Zen cores, 8 threads, 3GHz, 14nm) can deliver 60+ FPS in CPU limited scenarios where the PS4 Pro (8 cores, 8 threads, 2.1 GHz, 14nm) can't maintain a solid 30 FPS.

It's worth remembering that the Jaguar microarchitecture was fundamentally different from Piledriver or Steamroller (AMDs Desktop CPUs at the time). Whereas all the Ryzen Mobile APUs released so far are identical to the Raven Ridge Desktop APUs (like the Ryzen 5 2400G), just with different clocks and different features or parts of the chip disabled. PIledriver and Steamroller cores could perform three times as many single-precision floating-point operations per clock as a Jaguar core (or three-quarters as many as Zen).
In a nutshell, a current first generation Ryzen CPU has more than TRIPLE the floating point power of PS3 CELL, which in turn has double the power of the weak ass Jaguar processor in a standard PS4

Keep in mind, a 7nm Ryzen 2 in PS5 is anticipated to be much more advanced and perhaps even MORE powerful than today’s Ryzen 5 2400G!

P.S. As a little reminder to those who believe Xbox One X can deliver a true next generation experience, X1X Jaguar CPU only has 147Gflop computational power, whereas the Ryzen CPUS in Scarlett/PS5 could have Teraflop performance just by themselves!( same ballpark as an entire Xbox One S)

Chew on that for a minute.
 
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lukeskymac

Member
Oct 30, 2017
553
Just curious since there's all this talk about Sony working closely with AMD on Navi, for PS3 BC would it be easier for Sony to just try and brute force it with the raw power of the PS5, or is it even remotely possible that tech from Cell is being implemented into the PS5 to make BC possible?
The latter would be an utter waste of die space. If there's ever going to be PS3 BC, it will be through emulation, guaranteed.
 

vivftp

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,730
Well I’m not sure how complicated it would be from a software standpoint, but I am sure PS5 CPU will have enough brute strength from a hardware standpoint.

I will refer to this excellent post by backtovioletroad who explains this in great detail:
Thanks. Yeah, I had backtovioletroad's post in the back of my mind as I was posting my question. It did surprise me that the PS3's GFLOPS figure was so relatively high compared to everything else. Kinda makes me wonder how things would have been different if Cell had been allowed to evolve to this day.


The latter would be an utter waste of die space. If there's ever going to be PS3 BC, it will be through emulation, guaranteed.
I think what I also had in mind was, is there any aspect of Cell (whether it be directly ripping it out of the original Cell or an evolution of tech Cell used) that would be worth putting into the PS5's APU that would not only help with BC, but be beneficial for PS5 games as well. At the time I was thinking of those figures that backtovioletroad provided in the above post and was wondering if Cell's tech could have something useful to contribute to the PS5's architecture. Dunno if that's the case or not, so I just wanted to toss that out there.
 

lukeskymac

Member
Oct 30, 2017
553
Thanks. Yeah, I had backtovioletroad's post in the back of my mind as I was posting my question. It did surprise me that the PS3's GFLOPS figure was so relatively high compared to everything else. Kinda makes me wonder how things would have been different if Cell had been allowed to evolve to this day.
Two important things to consider here:
1) GFLOPS measures one (technically two) operation a processor can do. It does not represent the performance of said processor uniformly.
2) The Cell consists of one PowerPC core and seven SPUs, of which one is disabled. These SPUs are what make the Cell's FLOPS count be so high - they were kinda built for doing those and operations related to them.

The point here is that GFLOPS numbers aren't good metrics for overall processor capabilities and that the Cell's numbers are inflated due to the SPUs - which were mostly used for GPU-like tasks to offset how middling the PS3 GPU was.

I think what I also had in mind was, is there any aspect of Cell (whether it be directly ripping it out of the original Cell or an evolution of tech Cell used) that would be worth putting into the PS5's APU that would not only help with BC, but be beneficial for PS5 games as well. At the time I was thinking of those figures that backtovioletroad provided in the above post and was wondering if Cell's tech could have something useful to contribute to the PS5's architecture. Dunno if that's the case or not, so I just wanted to toss that out there.
The answer is that something like that already happened to the PS4. It's just that the tech went to the GPU instead of the CPU.
 

BreakAtmo

Member
Nov 12, 2017
3,182
I heard recently about how the RSX was quite a bit pricier than the Cell, which surprised me. I wonder what a PS3 with 2 Cells (or just a Cell with 2 cores and 14 SPEs) and 512MB of unified XDR RAM might have been like.
 

vivftp

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,730
Two important things to consider here:
1) GFLOPS measures one (technically two) operation a processor can do. It does not represent the performance of said processor uniformly.
2) The Cell consists of one PowerPC core and seven SPUs, of which one is disabled. These SPUs are what make the Cell's FLOPS count be so high - they were kinda built for doing those and operations related to them.

The point here is that GFLOPS numbers aren't good metrics for overall processor capabilities and that the Cell's numbers are inflated due to the SPUs - which were mostly used for GPU-like tasks to offset how middling the PS3 GPU was.

The answer is that something like that already happened to the PS4. It's just that the tech went to the GPU instead of the CPU.
Nifty, thanks for the info :)
 

5Twist

Member
Oct 27, 2017
559
i don't think Sony need to pretend the FF7 Remake doesn't exist on PS4; they just need to pull a BotW and make sure ALL the promotion, gameplay trailers, and demos, are all played on the PS5. Basically getting everyone used to the superior graphics and frames. I am pretty sure Nintendo did this with BotW, never actually using the WiiU hardware at any point during their game showcase anywhere.

This has two beneficial effects;
1. It presents FF7 Remake in the best possible light so more people would want to buy it.
2. People who buy the game might run it on PS4, but since they had their expectations raised by the PS5 promotional footage, they might be convinced to upgrade once they see the differences.

And in the case of FF7 Remake, it would actually work better because the customer doesn't need to buy a different copy of the game like what BotW would need them to; they would know that the game they already bought would run on the new machine as is.

Sony is better off trying to use the carrot rather than the stick to get people to buy the new machine.
It could potentially help the PS5 a lot in Japan in its first year. The PS4's sales performance in its first year in Japan was abysmal.
 

dobahking91

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,233
Well I’m not sure how complicated it would be to emulate CELL from a software standpoint, but I am sure PS5 CPU will have enough brute strength from a hardware standpoint.

I will refer to this excellent post by backtovioletroad who explains this in great detail:




In a nutshell, a current first generation Ryzen CPU has more than TRIPLE the floating point power of PS3 CELL, which in turn has double the power of the weak ass Jaguar processor in a standard PS4

Keep in mind, a 7nm Ryzen 2 in PS5 is anticipated to be much more advanced and perhaps even MORE powerful than today’s Ryzen 5 2400G!

P.S. As a little reminder to those who believe Xbox One X can deliver a true next generation experience, X1X Jaguar CPU only has 147Gflop computational power, whereas the Ryzen CPUS in Scarlett/PS5 could have Teraflop performance just by themselves!( same ballpark as an entire Xbox One S)

Chew on that for a minute.
Damn I didn't expect Ryzen CPU to be such a big leap, next gen games are gonna be mind blowing.
60fps should be definitely be more common I think.
 
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Dant21

Member
Apr 24, 2018
386
I think what I also had in mind was, is there any aspect of Cell (whether it be directly ripping it out of the original Cell or an evolution of tech Cell used) that would be worth putting into the PS5's APU that would not only help with BC, but be beneficial for PS5 games as well. At the time I was thinking of those figures that backtovioletroad provided in the above post and was wondering if Cell's tech could have something useful to contribute to the PS5's architecture. Dunno if that's the case or not, so I just wanted to toss that out there.
Yeah, this isn’t happening. The AVX units in Ryzen CPUs stomp all over the Cell arch in every category, especially speed, flexibility, and ease of programming. It’s no contest, and anything that the Cell might possibly be able to do better (parallelism in vector operations maybe?), would be better moved to GPGPU instead, anyway.
 
Oct 25, 2017
10,870
Damn I didn't expect Ryzen CPU to be such a big leap. Next gen games are gonna be mind blowing.
I wonder though. Will it be a case of dev ambition being too high and punching above next gen weight? Like, the hardware will indeed be a hefty boost over this gen but the things devs want to do will still be too much for it to handle. It seems something like that will always be the case, to an extent.
 

dobahking91

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,233
I wonder though. Will it be a case of dev ambition being too high and punching above next gen weight? Like, the hardware will indeed be a hefty boost over this gen but the things devs want to do will still be too much for it to handle. It seems something like that will always be the case, to an extent.
I think this should be less the case next time around because next gen consoles will be way more balanced then privious gens(esp PS3/PS4) as long as dev don't aim ridiculous goal such as raytracing.
The CPU alone will be powerfull enough to handle thousand of NPCs, TLOU P2 like animation, far greater draw distance.

I mean this gen gives us games like Horizon, RDR2, TLOU P2 and maybe Cyberpunk despite that weakass jaguar CPU lol.. I think next gen will juste be more of everything up to 11..
 
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Kleegamefan

Member
Dec 16, 2017
274
Damn I didn't expect Ryzen CPU to be such a big leap, next gen games are gonna be mind blowing.
60fps should be definitely be more common I think.
Not if next generation games use lots of processor heavy techniques....

Like Ray Tracing, for instance.

Whatever the case may be, in time, next generation games should give us the leap we are hoping for.

Simulation abilities of PS5/Scarlett should be out of this world at least.
 
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MisterMangu

Banned
Feb 12, 2018
724
The way you guys talk about next gen specs makes it seem like the console space is closing the gap in power between it and a beefy PC.
 

dobahking91

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,233
Can checkerboard not help with that?
Maybe, but even if they somehow hit an acceptable performance wouldn't it be a waste to sacrifice all the computational power ?

I'm convinced next gen consoles will have some pseudo raytracing lite solution. Not the real thing, but somewhat close in limited areas.
Yeah I could see hybrid solution in less intensive games. I think dev like Quantic Dream, Media Molecule might try something.
 

BitsandBytes

Member
Dec 16, 2017
2,371
in some repects yes, some no. in cpu it will be alot smaller a gap, but in gpu maybe not. ray tracing is a big deal, and almost 100% wont be in next gen consoles.
I won't rule anything out just yet.

Interesting to compare what a prominent dev tweeted recently about RT and the next consoles:


And what he 'hoped' for in early 2011 re: RAM in the next consoles:

My finger-pointing at Microsoft/Sony would really be on the memory side. It's way too low, and the biggest crippling factor from a visual perspective. I would really like to see next-gen console platforms with a minimum of 8GB.
He got what he wished for last time round...
 

eathdemon

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,048
I won't rule anything out just yet.

Interesting to compare what a prominent dev tweeted recently about RT and the next consoles:


And what he 'hoped' for in early 2011 re: RAM in the next consoles:



He got what he wished for last time round...
we will know next year when desktop navi is revealed. if navi has raytracing, consoles will get part of it, if not I cant see a ray tracing chip just for consoles.
 
Feb 10, 2018
11,697
If next gen has 8 zen cores woulf it be possible to use, 4-6 zen cores for rtx style ray tracing?

Even if 6 cores are used for RT 2 zen cores are probably still more powerful then 8 jaguars.
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,008
I won't rule anything out just yet.

Interesting to compare what a prominent dev tweeted recently about RT and the next consoles:


And what he 'hoped' for in early 2011 re: RAM in the next consoles:



He got what he wished for last time round...
You can scale RAM up or down pretty close to launch, but the decision point for dedicated RT hardware is past. Either they have it or they don’t.
 

Indominus

Member
Jan 11, 2018
164
No:
2019: Days Gone in February, The Last of Us Part II in July.
2020 : Ghost of Tsushima in March, Death Stranding in May.
2021 : PlayStation 5 launch with Horizon 2 in March.

2 AAA by year, plus a lot of mid-sized games (WiLD, the new remake from Bluepoint, Concrete Genie, Dreams, ...). This is enough.
I REALLY don't see Sony releasing Days Gone and TLOU2 in the same year. They look very similar imo, people might be burn out by the tone and aesthetic in such a short period. I think Ghost of Tsushima has more chance of be released in 2019, Infamous SS and First Light was in 2014. The time seems right.

My bet:
2019: Days Gone in February, Dreams in June and Ghost of Tsushima in September.
2020: PS5 launch in March with TLOU2 (PS4/PS5), Death Stranding will be in October.
 

vivftp

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,730
I'd imagine if we don't get raytracing with next gen consoles at launch, or even if we only get a limited implementation then full blown raytracing could be a major selling point for a mid-gen refresh
 

BitsandBytes

Member
Dec 16, 2017
2,371
You can scale RAM up or down pretty close to launch, but the decision point for dedicated RT hardware is past. Either they have it or they don’t.
True, but then you have to take Tiago Sousa's comments I posted within the context of assuming Sony/Microsoft have long ago asked devs like ID what they want HW wise for Scarlet/PS5. Probably as long ago as 2014/15 if last gen is anything to go by.

Also Phil Spencer has already mentioned RT specifically and, IMO, not accidentally.

All I know is next-gen talk is really motoring now and big leaks can't be too far away.
 
Jul 6, 2018
105
Two important things to consider here:
1) GFLOPS measures one (technically two) operation a processor can do. It does not represent the performance of said processor uniformly.
2) The Cell consists of one PowerPC core and seven SPUs, of which one is disabled. These SPUs are what make the Cell's FLOPS count be so high - they were kinda built for doing those and operations related to them.

The point here is that GFLOPS numbers aren't good metrics for overall processor capabilities and that the Cell's numbers are inflated due to the SPUs - which were mostly used for GPU-like tasks to offset how middling the PS3 GPU was.



The answer is that something like that already happened to the PS4. It's just that the tech went to the GPU instead of the CPU.
Yes, but the question was about emulation. And using the Cell BE to perform all those GPU-type tasks is difficult to emulate with a GPU. You would have to re-write the games. You're talking about millions of dollars of work per game.

A system with a modern CPU with more floating point performance than the Cell BE could potentially have an easier time emulating the PS3.
 

dobahking91

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,233
Yeah even if next gen is comning in 2020, I think we are getting major leak by GDC 2019.
If there is a PS Meeting early 2020 dev should be getting devkits pretty soon.

I also suspect first party like Guerrilla to have a good estimate of next gen consoles by now.
 
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Feb 10, 2018
11,697
You can scale RAM up or down pretty close to launch, but the decision point for dedicated RT hardware is past. Either they have it or they don’t.
It really depends how important hybrid rtx style ray tracing is.
Sony and Ms would of had meetings and talks with there hardware engineers, devs and top graphics people. These people will know what kind of visuals hybrid RT will bring and the hardware necessary tp do it and at what price point.

Bare in mind next gen hardware without RT will still have many advancements like

  • More extensive svogi lighting implementation
  • Greater poly counts
  • And things used in none RT UE4 tech demos that have not yet been used that much in games.

The truth is the hybrid RT lighting of RTX is not that impressive in the scale of graphical leaps.
However we dont know what games could look like with games made from the ground up using RTX style tech. Sony and MS would surely made tech demos doing this and tech demos made without it and they will make a judgement call.

It could of come down to scenarios like these

  • 4core zen with 12tflop RT GPU 16gb ram
  • 8core zen 12tflop gpu 20gb ram
  • 8 core 9tflop RT gpu 20gb ram
 
Jul 6, 2018
105
The way you guys talk about next gen specs makes it seem like the console space is closing the gap in power between it and a beefy PC.
Consoles have been doing that since the Xbox 360.

Folks who are saying: There's no way the PS5 can compete with my sweet, sweet GTX 1080 Ti I bought last year....

Just look at the PS4 which launched Holiday 2013. Lets say PS5 is coming Holiday 2020. What monster graphics card launched early 2010? The GTX 480.

The PS4 was coming in two years on a node shrink (28nm).

Folks back then were saying: There's no way that the next consoles will be as powerful as my sweet GTX 480.

Guess what happened? Two years later the PS4 came out and it was about as powerful as a GTX 580. The GTX 480 was quickly obsolete.

Of course the wasn't nearly as powerful as the GTX 680 that launched in 2012 on the 28nm process.

Node shrinks are a big deal. Next gen console GPUs will be competitive with the best 12nm/14nm/16nm GPUs.
 

Alandring

Member
Feb 2, 2018
1,017
Switzerland
I REALLY don't see Sony releasing Days Gone and TLOU2 in the same year. They look very similar imo, people might be burn out by the tone and aesthetic in such a short period. I think Ghost of Tsushima has more chance of be released in 2019, Infamous SS and First Light was in 2014. The time seems right.

My bet:
2019: Days Gone in February, Dreams in June and Ghost of Tsushima in September.
2020: PS5 launch in March with TLOU2 (PS4/PS5), Death Stranding will be in October.
I don't know for The Last of Us and Days Gone. It's true, but I don't think they will wait one year to release Last of Us if the game is ready. But yeah, 2020 seems more realistic.

But I'm ready to bet that Sony won't release a big PlayStation 4 exclusive after the PlayStation 5 launch. I can see a game cross-gen at launch (like Zelda), but after the launch of the PlayStation 5, every game coming from SIE will be available only on PlayStation 5. And if I can see some exclusives never release on PlayStation 4 (Final Fantasy VII Remake, WiLD, Deep Down), I think Death Stranding, The Last of Us Part II and Ghost of Tsushima will all release on PlayStation 4.
 

Putty

Double Eleven
Verified
Oct 27, 2017
616
Middlesbrough
All this talk of the GPU but i'm more than delighted what we'll get in the CPU dept! I mean look at the games we have now and in the next 18 months....on 5..6 yr old hardware!
 

Ebtesam

Member
Apr 1, 2018
2,741
Yup! No way i'd be able to wait till late 2020 for PS5 :)

And good thing about Sony,unlike MS, is that they don't announce console more then a year in advance.If there is gonna be PS meeting by spring 2019 we are getting PS5 late 2019 for sure.
well MS already announce The X a year before and now they said they already working in deep for the next Gen ....So i think both will announce their next gen at the same time or month
 

Xeontech

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,871
All this talk of the GPU but i'm more than delighted what we'll get in the CPU dept! I mean look at the games we have now and in the next 18 months....on 5..6 yr old hardware!
It’s mind blowing these things are running on jaguars lol. Even on the almighty X. I mean, Jags! It’s insane we’re still using those in 2018. And people want to keep going till 2021!

Ryzen APU’s are goingvto be bonkers for consoles. Absolutely thx biggest leap, depending on HBM implementation.