Plus HBCC should ease the load on RAM. AMD said games have up to 50% of their total allocation in some situations with data they don't need.
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PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - timing and specification
- Thread starter zomgbbqftw
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I know we probably won't get that but i REALLY REALLY hope that there's actually a small chance we'll get PS5 with those specs in 2.5 years (Holiday 2020).
People buy new smartphones,gadgets every 2-3 years,so why not spend 499$ on something that will last you for 7 years and give you thousands of hours of fun.In my opinion that's a good investment.For me 499$ should be standard price for a console.
For 499$ and those spec we could see some astonishing neverseen before graphics,animations,physics,destruction.Imagine GTA 7 with destruction and real car damage/physics,hunderds of apartmens/stores/banks that you can break in etc.,urban maps in Battlefield 6 where almost everything can be demolished like in a real war,single player games where you have many ways to play a game and choose which path of storytelling you wanna take(good guy/bad guy) with AI that learn from your playstyle,huge open world zombie game(DAYZ concept)set in New York like The Division but with jawdropping realistic graphics,destruction,looting & hardcore playstyle with 200-300 players set across whole New York fighting to survive just like you,sim-racing games where physics feels so realistic that it actually feels like you're in that specific car(in VR and proper steering wheel)...and so on :))
But a new thread could just be created if relevant information comes around.
I just think there is a group of people that LOVE speculation, even if it's not based in reality. There are plenty of twitter personalities who's entire schtick is peddling rumors that are usually just made up garbage, but even when those claims are proven false I've actially seen their followers defend them or excuse this behavior because they enjoy mindless "speculation".
So..it seems we are talking 2020 so I'll stick to my prediction,now with more confidence I guess:
APU using 7nm process consists of:
CPU: Zen 2 variant clocked at around 2.8-3.0 ghz,similar in power to,say,Ryzen 3700 or whatever the CPU AMD will release in 2019 will be called. Will be a gigantic leap compare to what we have now.
GPU:I hate to use those TF numbers but I'll do it anyway: still sticking to a 12TF class GPU,thinking something like a Vega64 but more efficient. clocked at around 1.1 Ghz.
For the other components:
RAM: either 16gb or 32gb of GDDR6. probably on a 256bit bandwidth.
HDD: Yes,I still believe a 2020 console will still be using an HDD. probably 7200RPM and 2TB.
Optical Drive: UHD Blu-Ray is a given.
I/O: HDMI 2.1,USB 3.1,maybe type-c,latest BT standard,wireless chip using latest Wi-Fi standard.
Controller: nothing too substantial,maybe little ergonomics improvements,more advanced rumble features,better battery life (due to lack of touch pad which I don't think will make it to the DS5) and quick charge support.
And thats it,completely evolutionary,but substantial,upgrade over the PS4, Good chance of hitting 399$ for late 2020 release. But that's just my prediction,might be completely wrong on all of it lol.
APU using 7nm process consists of:
CPU: Zen 2 variant clocked at around 2.8-3.0 ghz,similar in power to,say,Ryzen 3700 or whatever the CPU AMD will release in 2019 will be called. Will be a gigantic leap compare to what we have now.
GPU:I hate to use those TF numbers but I'll do it anyway: still sticking to a 12TF class GPU,thinking something like a Vega64 but more efficient. clocked at around 1.1 Ghz.
For the other components:
RAM: either 16gb or 32gb of GDDR6. probably on a 256bit bandwidth.
HDD: Yes,I still believe a 2020 console will still be using an HDD. probably 7200RPM and 2TB.
Optical Drive: UHD Blu-Ray is a given.
I/O: HDMI 2.1,USB 3.1,maybe type-c,latest BT standard,wireless chip using latest Wi-Fi standard.
Controller: nothing too substantial,maybe little ergonomics improvements,more advanced rumble features,better battery life (due to lack of touch pad which I don't think will make it to the DS5) and quick charge support.
And thats it,completely evolutionary,but substantial,upgrade over the PS4, Good chance of hitting 399$ for late 2020 release. But that's just my prediction,might be completely wrong on all of it lol.
Wheeew, wouldn't want to be a developer in the universe you live in :D
All of your expectations are reasonable. I'd say the least reasonable is the latest WiFi standard. We'll have 802.11ax by then, and I could see it being stuck with ac, which is unfortunate because ax focuses on range and congestion issues.
People check their smartphones every 15 minutes. A huge chunk of the market buys a PS4 to play one or two games per year and collect dust for weeks/months, they'll take the cheaper option if they can. Sometimes it's easier to forget that, although early adopters, we are the minority of the market.
Yeah but the money is made on software not hardware.
Who cares about selling to someone who only buys 2 games. We spend 1000s on games, please us first then Jimmy 2 games can buy in when the price comes down.
That's not where the money is anymore. The money is now on subscription fees, at least for console makers. People might only buy two games, but if they play online then they could be paying for multiplayer every month. And in total they end up giving Sony more money than the hard core fanbase.
Agreed about subscriptions, though the hardcore are obviously paying those too.
I know that was what I was thinking as well. I guess It'll depend on how popular the .ax standard will be on devices coming late 2020.
Yeah, I'm with you on almost everything in this prediction. I'd say 16GB or 24GB tops, 32GB is pretty much overkill for a mostly single-use game machine even at 4k. Type-C for the controllers, AC for Wifi (AX maybe in the revision/Pro model).
Biggest thing I think they'll add is either a Hybrid Drive, or dedicated system-controlled NAND storage for the purposes of speeding up game loads. Anywhere from 64GB-256GB, depending on whether it's used as cache or supplemental storage. Load times on current consoles are out of control, and these new machines should really, really address that. But the HDD ain't going anywhere if they want to push "true" 4k gaming.
I thought 24gb was a likely option for a long time,but more educated people on the matter than me here said that this configuration would bring complexity that would make it difficult for Sony to cut down costs down the road,so that is why I excluded it.
And that's where sheer numbers come in. Since the hardcore pay the same amount for multiplayer as casual gamers, the fact that there are so much MORE casual players means the hardcore are not the financial majority.
Not sure how you'd define who's what. 1 game a year + PSN is casual? When you said 2 games earlier, I thought you meant in total, all gen.
It doesn't matter how many or how few games someone buy, if at least one game require PSN then they pay for the entirety of their days playing that game. Your assumption is that someone who buy fewer games would pay less PSN. I am arguing that the same person would keep paying PSN so they could keep playing the few games they actually bought. That since there is only one tier of PSN that you need to pay, everyone would pay the same to Sony for their subscription, no matter how many games they actually own.
And my argument is that Sony's massive increase in profits from PSN is not from hardcore ERA posters who own hundreds of games, but the millions of people who own few games but keep playing them.
Huh?!?
Load times this gen. seem to me like they're the best they've ever really been. Granted I'm playing on the PS4 and came from a PS3, which in games like Skyrim and MGS4 have been a pretty much low point in my entire history with games in terms of load times.
I know it's related to AMD's next desktop gpu line,but it may have serious impact on next-gen as well:
https://wccftech.com/amds-secret-ra...locks-efficiency-in-2018-navi-in-2019-beyond/
https://wccftech.com/amds-secret-ra...locks-efficiency-in-2018-navi-in-2019-beyond/
I know they have bad rep,but the report itself is very detailed and doesn't seem like 'tales from my ass' kind of report,but you are right,it is to be taken with a grain of salt.
This report is partially corroborated by AMD's own marketing materials. A few pages back is the video where Suzanne directly says they onboarded some Zen engineers to the graphics team. To guess that this will impact Navi seems unrealistic, but then again that roadmap showing Navi with a decent efficiency jump would have predated all of this anyway.
Edit: DF has a good summary up now
I'd say the major revelation is that Cerny has hit the road.
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I'd also add that Richard teases that he has a lot more info but isn't willing to share it at the moment.
He thinks it should be possible to put in 8c16t zen.
He also comments that the resetera rumor is fake, but "not a bad guess, except ram and storage"
Ah thread on it https://www.resetera.com/threads/di...y-deliver-a-generational-leap-in-power.36324/
I agree with him. Based on scaling and known Zen measurements, 8C should fit in roughly same space as Jaguar 28nm when you shrink it to 7nm.
Slight correction... 8 Zen coes would occupy a similar (albeit smaller) footprint at 7nm as an 8c Jaguar at 28nm (i.e. the Liverpool CPU footprint).
Shrinking Jaguar to 7nm would be considerably smaller than possibly even a single Zen CCX.
Finally got around to digesting this: pretty cool method to manage power droop without sacrificing nominal clock speed or power profiles:
https://www.realworldtech.com/steamroller-clocking/
https://www.realworldtech.com/steamroller-clocking/
This is very clever tech. Would it really not affect rendering performance?
Kanter is an analyst with industry customers. He's going to be very thorough and cautious with his conclusions. I would bet this tech is making its way into GPUs for AMD and it does have a benefit. The benefits are too good to pass up. No one wants to be hampered by a corner case that represents a small fraction of real world usage.
Performance loss from the logic choking under voltage sag is probably much bigger than from a transitory downclock. I imagine that, with this tech, they can actually achieve higher baseline sustained clock, since they eliminate most of the overhead that would come from the safety overvolting.
I'm honestly starting to be more massively hyped for the leap in visuals that will take place with next-gen consoles.
Agnis Philosophy looks incredible and that was rendered on a GTX 680 back in 2012!
Epic's infiltrator demo was created in 2013.
Next generation games are gonna be mind blowing! Hopefully, the PS5/Xbox4 generation will be the first where company tech demos don't massively overshoot those consoles' capabilities.
II am wondering if games next-generation will indeed be dramatically more expensive than ones this generation? It seems that a lot of work has gone into improving production pipelines this generation. The architecture of next-gen consoles also won't be a dramatic change this go around.
Agnis Philosophy looks incredible and that was rendered on a GTX 680 back in 2012!
Epic's infiltrator demo was created in 2013.
Next generation games are gonna be mind blowing! Hopefully, the PS5/Xbox4 generation will be the first where company tech demos don't massively overshoot those consoles' capabilities.
II am wondering if games next-generation will indeed be dramatically more expensive than ones this generation? It seems that a lot of work has gone into improving production pipelines this generation. The architecture of next-gen consoles also won't be a dramatic change this go around.
Yup, and the GTX 680 was released as a high-end card using the mid-sized Kepler GK104 GPU - 3.0 TFlops, and while much more powerful than base PS4 in 2013, will be dwarfed by next-gen consoles. The other components that allowed Agnis Philosophy to be developed and run were a beefy Intel i7-3770K @ 3.5GHz and 32GB RAM. I don't think any Zen 8-core CPU will have trouble beating a 3.5 GHz 3770K
Now while I also know Square Enix showed Agni's Philosophy at PlayStation Meeting 2013 running on what they claimed was PS4 hardware, I don't remember any specifics being given other than the original demo and PC specs in 2012. so I take the 'running on PS4' with a grain of salt.
With that said, I don't see how PS5/Xbox Next won't be able to run huge games with the level of graphics, lighting and animation shown in the various tech demos at E3 2012.
My mental benchmark for next gen is that recent Metro demo. I hope they can approach that level of lightning, even if the techniques are different.
I'm also expecting the average level of visual fidelity next gen to match or exceed the tech demos of this gen.
Without the L3$ one CCX (4 Zen Cores) occupies roughly as much die space with ~28mm² @14nm as one Jaguar Compute Unit (4 Cores) with ~26,2mm².
36mm² with 4MB L3$ like in Raven-Ridge.
If Global Foundries scaling estimate with 0,38 is applied, one CCX with 8MB L3$ would just take 16,7mm², with 4MB 13,7mm² and without any L3$ 10,7mm².
Of course not every logic block scales as good, some better than other but even half of the die size would put Zen1 @7nm under Jaguar @28nm.
https://fuse.wikichip.org/news/1177/amds-zen-cpu-complex-cache-and-smu/
It was already integrated into Carrizo's GCN Gen 3 iGPU and then Polaris/GCN Gen 4:
Page 8:
https://www.slideshare.net/AMD/isscc
In regards to Polaris one can read the whitepaper and technical presentation:
Polaris Whitepaper Page 13 said:
Techday slides:
http://gaming.radeon.com/wp-content...ris-Tech-Day-Architecture-Final-6.24.2016.pdf
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Without the L3$ one CCX (4 Zen Cores) occupies roughly as much die space with ~28mm² @14nm as one Jaguar Compute Unit (4 Cores) with ~26,2mm².
36mm² with 4MB L3$ like in Raven-Ridge.
If Global Foundries scaling estimate with 0,38 is applied, one CCX with 8MB L3$ would just take 16,7mm², with 4MB 13,7mm² and without any L3$ 10,7mm².
Of course not every logic block scales as good, some better than other but even half of the die size would put Zen1 @7nm under Jaguar @28nm.
https://fuse.wikichip.org/news/1177/amds-zen-cpu-complex-cache-and-smu/
It was already integrated into Carrizo's GCN Gen 3 iGPU and then Polaris/GCN Gen 4:
Page 8:
https://www.slideshare.net/AMD/isscc
In regards to Polaris one can read the whitepaper and technical presentation:
Techday slides:
http://gaming.radeon.com/wp-content...ris-Tech-Day-Architecture-Final-6.24.2016.pdf
Nice roundup. Regarding the adaptive clocking, I've actually since seen someone say that it was incorporated and is actually being disabled in some cases. Maybe it's not working out as they hoped for GPUs.
Regarding die sizes, I think the key questions are cache amount and how much bigger Zen 2 is than a Zen core. AFAIK, we have no idea of the feature enhancements, so it's hard to guess how it might grow. I will be especially curious how they size the cache in comparison to the vanilla Zen 2 products.
I didn't seen anything like that and at least for Polaris I wouldn't believe it but I roughly remember information around the Resonant Clock Mesh for Trinity/Richland which was integrated but actually not active.
That's true and if Sony/MS actually want to use Zen2.
For example if Zen2 doubles the FP/Cache data-path-width to 256-Bit for single cycle AVX throughput, the area cost per core will go up by quite a margin but do you want to spend that for consoles where the focus is on the system performance which primarly means the GPU?
Zen1 would be already a huge upgrade in every regard, so for area efficiency sake the console makers could just shrink Zen1 instead of using Zen2.
But it really depends on how Zen2 looks like and what AMD improved to be able to judge potential decision making.
Just so people aren't confused, Zen 2 is a distinct microarchitecture from Zen that will first debut in 7nm. Zen will never be in 7nm according to current known roadmaps. It's 16FF, then 12nm for Zen+.
Oh,i see.I am curious is there any substantial difference between Zen and Zen2 besides usual stuff like higher clocks,a bit better ipc and more power efficient?
We have no architecture specifics on Zen 2 at the moment, but those are all fair guesses.
Locuza's example of expansion to do single-cycle AVX is a very real possibility. AVX is one area where AMD is well behind Intel, and the importance of that is certainly debatable.
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Not really. There will be architectural changes, not just a process port.
My Prediction:
PS5 announced at Sony's event mid 2020. Releases early/mid 2021. Nextbox shown in some form E3 2021. Out Xmas 2022.
Sony goes first because Pro isn't the same league as X1X. MS can drag out X1X for awhile and watch what Sony does to implement better stuff into Nextbox in late 2022.
PS5 announced at Sony's event mid 2020. Releases early/mid 2021. Nextbox shown in some form E3 2021. Out Xmas 2022.
Sony goes first because Pro isn't the same league as X1X. MS can drag out X1X for awhile and watch what Sony does to implement better stuff into Nextbox in late 2022.
So correct me if I'm wrong. But from what I understand it seems that even next gen will be a bigger leap than ps3 was to ps4? Even with conservative/realistic assumptions? I mean as a whole package, I don't mean in terraflop terms
Their seems to be more technologies and methods applicable to consoles for ps5 and Xboxnext than their were for ps4 and x1
The jump from PS4 to PS5 will be about the same as PS3 to PS4. The previous jumps were much larger because tech was advancing faster (and so were console power budgets).
Mostly relying on Jason's work and House's comments, but definitely makes the case from the business side. PS4 is doing very well right now. Why change things?
2021 is way too late. 2020 is what I hear around rumor mill to be the latest for release of PS5, with late 2019 at the earliest. 2021 Would be too late.
It doesn't change anything? If all the games are playable from PS4 with same settings and maybe a boost mode or settings from the PS4PRO all it does is add another tier.
Everyone wins. Imagine a PS4 for $150-199 as a regular price, PS4PRO at $250-299, and PS5 at $449-499.
Makes perfect sense. All games will work and all future games for the first couple years will be cross-gen until base PS4 is phased out production wise after 10 year cycle which would be 2023.
That is smart as fuck.
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