PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - timing and specification

Miniature Kaiju · Apr 20, 2018

Chitown B said:
My Prediction:

PS5 announced at Sony's event mid 2020. Releases early/mid 2021.

Sony won't take a year between announcement and release. Too long to keep up the hype, too many chances for a competitor to steal the thunder with a super early announcement. They probably won't take even as long as it took between PS4 announcement and release. If they announce it just before E3 2020, expect it to be out by Fall 2020.

Chitown B said:
Sony goes first because Pro isn't the same league as X1X.

The X1X (and the PS4Pro, for that matter) are completely immaterial to what Sony is going to do. They're just premium products that have a negligible impact on the market. They're going to release their next console when they have the tech to do so at a reasonable price, not earlier, not later.

console lover said:
So correct me if I'm wrong. But from what I understand it seems that even next gen will be a bigger leap than ps3 was to ps4? Even with conservative/realistic assumptions? I mean as a whole package, I don't mean in terraflop terms

Really hard to say. It will be a larger jump in some aspects, probably - likely a much more performant CPU, for instance. GPU- and memory-wise, the leap from PS3 to PS4 was gargantuan in more ways than just performance, but also tech architecture, so that would be a hard one to surpass. All in all, I'd say that it will probably be in line with what we had before.

Chitown B said:
http://www.businessinsider.com/playstation-5-new-xbox-nintendo-switch-2018-4

That's a fluff article if I ever saw one.

Deleted member 40133 · Apr 20, 2018

anexanhume said:
The jump from PS4 to PS5 will be about the same as PS3 to PS4. The previous jumps were much larger because tech was advancing faster (and so were console power budgets).

Mostly relying on Jason's work and House's comments, but definitely makes the case from the business side. PS4 is doing very well right now. Why change things?

I'm more interested in the fact their is no "smoke" about a next Xbox, of course they're making one but it's surprising there's not even Inklings of info. Are Microsoft typically tight-lipped on these things? I know Durango leaked out but Xbox is now part of the Microsoft devices division proper

Chitown B · Apr 20, 2018

Miniature Kaiju said:
Sony won't take a year between announcement and release. Too long to keep up the hype, too many chances for a competitor to steal the thunder with a super early announcement. They probably won't take even as long as it took between PS4 announcement and release. If they announce it just before E3 2020, expect it to be out by Fall 2020.

The X1X (and the PS4Pro, for that matter) are completely immaterial to what Sony is going to do. They just premium products that have a negligible impact on the market. They're going to release their next console when they have the tech to do so at a reasonable price, not earlier, not later.

That's a fluff article if I ever saw one.

Sony announced in March and released in Nov for PS4. That's 8 months. Not that different than 12 months. Hype will be there regardless.

I disagree. If consumers or devs start flocking to the X1X because of power or features, that can affect Sony's plans.

I agree with the article that the PS4 is doing great and it would hurt them to release too early and screw all the userbase they've established, unless they have full backwards compat and they sell the concept well. I still don't see it releasing for 3 years.

Miniature Kaiju · Apr 20, 2018

Chitown B said:
Sony announced in March and released in Nov for PS4. That's 8 months. Not that different than 12 months. Hype will be there regardless.

And they've said it was too long. PS4Pro was announced much closer to launch, for instance. Expect that to be the case in the future.

Chitown B said:
If consumers or devs start flocking to the X1X because of power or features, that can affect Sony's plans.

That just won't happen this far into the generation, with user bases consolidated. At this point, people buying consoles are either late adopters that are price sensitive - they'll get the cheaper one - or power users, that are already invested into a platform.

Deleted member 40133 · Apr 20, 2018

Miniature Kaiju said:
And they've said it was too long. PS4Pro was announced much closer to launch, for instance. Expect that to be the case in the future.

That just won't happen this far into the generation, with user bases consolidated. At this point, people buying consoles are either late adopters that are price sensitive - they'll get the cheaper one - or power users, that are already invested into a platform.

And ps4pro is the cheaper of the higher end options. Sony actually nailed TWO console launches this gen. And Microsoft most definitely did not mess up the 1x launch, so it was a more even playing field

Euler007 · Apr 20, 2018

Chitown B said:
I disagree. If consumers or devs start flocking to the X1X because of power or features, that can affect Sony's plans.

Do you really believe a sane developer would choose to design a game specifically for X1X's install base (let's be generous at 1M), instead of PS4's 77 million install base?

Papacheeks · Apr 20, 2018

Chitown B said:
Sony announced in March and released in Nov for PS4. That's 8 months. Not that different than 12 months. Hype will be there regardless.

I disagree. If consumers or devs start flocking to the X1X because of power or features, that can affect Sony's plans.

I agree with the article that the PS4 is doing great and it would hurt them to release too early and screw all the userbase they've established, unless they have full backwards compat and they sell the concept well. I still don't see it releasing for 3 years.

The architecture for the PRO and Xbox ONE X are beefier versions of base consoles. The next choice in hardware is going to be different but same architecture base of x86 just new APU design that will be able to incorporate how Jaguar ran or at least emulate it for BC. Not much tool wise and engine wise will dev's have to change, they will likely scale the engines and tools to use the difference in cores if there are any. And will probably update their game code/engine/tools as time goes on with the new hardware to take full advantage at a much faster rate.

PlayBee · Apr 20, 2018

There's no reason to announce a console a year in advance nowadays. PS4 was eight months, Xbox One was six months, Switch was five months (no, I'm not counting anything before the first look trailer). They've all done well.

Vormund · Apr 20, 2018

Papacheeks said:
The architecture for the PRO and Xbox ONE X are beefier versions of base consoles.

In the case of Xbox One X, there is more difference between that and the base Xbox One and the difference between PS4 and PS4 Pro. Xbox One X ditching ESRAM being the main one.

But yes, both are still Jaguar based so it'll be interesting to see how they both go moving forward. MS has done the hard work already moving away from a system that had ESRAM and I think the next Xbox will be similar in design to the X, but with a Ryzen CPU.

Chitown B · Apr 20, 2018

PlayBee said:
There's no reason to announce a console a year in advance nowadays. PS4 was eight months, Xbox One was six months, Switch was five months (no, I'm not counting anything before the first look trailer). They've all done well.

PS4 was announced the furthest out and has sold the most by far. So, the argument doesn't really hold up.

anexanhume · Apr 20, 2018

Papacheeks said:
2021 is way too late. 2020 is what I hear around rumor mill to be the latest for release of PS5, with late 2019 at the earliest. 2021 Would be too late.

It doesn't change anything? If all the games are playable from PS4 with same settings and maybe a boost mode or settings from the PS4PRO all it does is add another tier.
Everyone wins. Imagine a PS4 for $150-199 as a regular price, PS4PRO at $250-299, and PS5 at $449-499.

Makes perfect sense. All games will work and all future games for the first couple years will be cross-gen until base PS4 is phased out production wise after 10 year cycle which would be 2023.

That is smart as fuck.

Releasing a PS5 means throwing more costs and risks at developers. You're shifting your focus to a console whose profit per unit is going to be less than the current PS4. There's no logic in releasing a successor when the PS4 continues to do so well.

The PS4 Pro has no reason to exist the second PS5 launches if it's fully BC. Their sales will go into the toilet.

console lover said:
I'm more interested in the fact their is no "smoke" about a next Xbox, of course they're making one but it's surprising there's not even Inklings of info. Are Microsoft typically tight-lipped on these things? I know Durango leaked out but Xbox is now part of the Microsoft devices division proper

There was just a thread about a job posting for MS hardware. They're looking for lead DRAM and non-volatile storage engineers for future projects.

TheThreadsThatBindUs · Apr 20, 2018

Chitown B said:
PS4 was announced the furthest out and has sold the most by far. So, the argument doesn't really hold up.

Correlation doesn't equal causation.

That PS4 was announced the furthest from its launch has little to no bearing on its sales performance. iOS devices for example are announced months/weeks prior to release and sell in the 100s of million stock of units, so by your logic Sony should announce and release on the same day for maximum sales.

Chitown B · Apr 20, 2018

TheThreadsThatBindUs said:
Correlation doesn't equal causation.

That PS4 was announced the furthest from its launch has little to no bearing on its sales performance. iOS devices for example are announced months/weeks prior to release and sell in the 100s of million stock of units, so by your logic Sony should announce and release on the same day for maximum sales.

That's not the same thing. We know every single year a new iOS phone is coming out in Sept. People also buy new ones every single year. Not the same ballpark as an 8 year niche gaming system.

SeanMN · Apr 20, 2018

Throwing down my predictions for PS5 and the next Xbox:

PS5:
CPU: Zen 2, 8C/8T, 2.6-3.2ghz
GPU: 10.5-13.0TF
RAM: 18-24GB GDDR6
2020
$399

Xbox:
CPU: Zen 2+/3, 8C/16T, 3.0-3.6ghz
GPU: 13.5-16TF
RAM: 24-32 GB
2021
$499

Assumptions: I think Playstation will stick with the $399 price point that worked out well for them twice this generation. I think PS5 will launch earlier than the next xbox; I could see 2019 potentially, but think 2020 is where it's at, and 2021 for Xbox. I think Xbox will stay at $499; they had great messaging around the 1X, and if they have a sufficiently capable machine I think it could work again. I think the additional cost of the next Xbox will be put towards RAM and cooling in order to get higher clocks out of the GPU and CPU. Regarding the CPU, I'm not sure how much of a benefit multi-threading is for games, I think PS5 will play it conservative and not feature it, and Xbox more likely to incorporate it (especially since they've already had a smt design in the 360). For the GPUs, I started with the base assumption of doubling the CUs of the PS4P (36) and X1X (40), then seeing what TF values different clockspeeds (assuming: 1: an overall increase in speeds, with both being higher than X1X's 1172 MHZ. 2: that Xbox would be more aggressive here.) and CU counts around that area produced.

I might post updated predictions in the future when we get a better idea of how the next batch of GPUs scale/perform on 7nm.

HighspeedRefleX · Apr 20, 2018

gcwy said:
I'm also expecting the average level of visual fidelity next gen to match or exceed the tech demos of this gen.

The ones made from the ground up for next-gen will exceed and Cross-gen will match them.

Vinc · Apr 20, 2018

console lover said:
I'm more interested in the fact their is no "smoke" about a next Xbox, of course they're making one but it's surprising there's not even Inklings of info. Are Microsoft typically tight-lipped on these things? I know Durango leaked out but Xbox is now part of the Microsoft devices division proper

There is though, we just had a thread yesterday about job postings.

Deleted member 40133 · Apr 20, 2018

anexanhume said:
Releasing a PS5 means throwing more costs and risks at developers. You're shifting your focus to a console whose profit per unit is going to be less than the current PS4. There's no logic in releasing a successor when the PS4 continues to do so well.

The PS4 Pro has no reason to exist the second PS5 launches if it's fully BC. Their sales will go into the toilet.

There was just a thread about a job posting for MS hardware. They're looking for lead DRAM and non-volatile storage engineers for future projects.

Doy, youre right. I even read that job posting

HighspeedRefleX · Apr 20, 2018

Papacheeks said:
2021 is way too late. 2020 is what I hear around rumor mill to be the latest for release of PS5, with late 2019 at the earliest. 2021 Would be too late.

If true 4K really costs between 6 and 8 TF next gen 2021 is anything but too late for a worthwile leap. Hope the R&D is finding the next building block to checkerboard rendering so that more power will go into game creation rather than bypassing resolution problems.

VX1 · Apr 20, 2018

TheThreadsThatBindUs said:
Correlation doesn't equal causation.

That PS4 was announced the furthest from its launch has little to no bearing on its sales performance. iOS devices for example are announced months/weeks prior to release and sell in the 100s of million stock of units, so by your logic Sony should announce and release on the same day for maximum sales.

Exactly.Closest to iOS was ps4 pro announcement and starting sales 2 months later,if i remember well.

Chitown B · Apr 20, 2018

VX1 said:
Exactly.Closest to iOS was ps4 pro announcement and starting sales 2 months later,if i remember well.

again:

Chitown B said:
That's not the same thing. We know every single year a new iOS phone is coming out in Sept. People also buy new ones every single year. Not the same ballpark as an 8 year niche gaming system.

TheThreadsThatBindUs · Apr 20, 2018

Chitown B said:
That's not the same thing. We know every single year a new iOS phone is coming out in Sept. People also buy new ones every single year. Not the same ballpark as an 8 year niche gaming system.

You're missing the forest for the trees.

The point is, the time of the PS4's announcement had little impact on its sales performance. The PS4 has succeeded because of a plethora of far more meaningful reasons.

Miniature Kaiju · Apr 20, 2018

My guess is that PS5 gets announced (and shown, this time :D) at a Playstation Meeting in late April / early May, with full media blowout + launch games and pricing announcements at E3. Release is late October / early November, as usual.

This way they can minimize the time from announcement to release; go into the hype machine that is E3 still hot; avoid having a limp E3 that would happen if the console were to be announced after it - any new 1st party games will only be announced with the PS5 or after, not before; and get the usual sales boost from the holidays. All of that while they avoid kneecapping themselves by having a new console announced but not available during any holidays period.

anexanhume · Apr 20, 2018

Miniature Kaiju said:
My guess is that PS5 gets announced (and shown, this time :D) at a Playstation Meeting in late April / early May, with full media blowout + launch games and pricing announcements at E3. Release is late October / early November, as usual.

This way they can minimize the time from announcement to release; go into the hype machine that is E3 still hot; avoid having a limp E3 that would happen if the console were to be announced after it - any new 1st party games will only be announced with the PS5 or after, not before; and get the usual sales boost from the holidays. All of that while they avoid kneecapping themselves by having a new console announced but not available during any holidays period.

They have a 5 month window the way I see it. Skip January so people can spend their gift cards from the holiday. You want to announce at least 2 weeks before E3 as it should be a quiet period. Everyone will be holding back their big announcements, and you want to be the focus of chatter heading into E3 with at least a few weeks to build up to.

Reveal console and specs, then reveal price at E3.

VX1 · Apr 20, 2018

Miniature Kaiju said:
My guess is that PS5 gets announced (and shown, this time :D) at a Playstation Meeting in late April / early May, with full media blowout + launch games and pricing announcements at E3. Release is late October / early November, as usual.

This way they can minimize the time from announcement to release; go into the hype machine that is E3 still hot; avoid having a limp E3 that would happen if the console were to be announced after it - any new 1st party games will only be announced with the PS5 or after, not before; and get the usual sales boost from the holidays. All of that while they avoid kneecapping themselves by having a new console announced but not available during any holidays period.

Which year...? ;-)

2Blackcats · Apr 20, 2018

People still predicting that all PS5 games are going to work on PS4 for a few years are very wrong. Stop it.

kittens · Apr 20, 2018

I think 2020 would feel good to me. I'm in no rush for new hardware, especially with the Xbox One X and Switch just coming out.

Deleted member 5764 · Apr 20, 2018

I've said numerous times that I think 2020 is the most likely choice for PS5 due to it being the "safest" one. I'll be damned if I wouldn't personally prefer a 2019 release though. There are just certain things I want out of the Playstation ecosystem that I feel are being constrained by hardware. PSVR is the biggest sticking point as I don't see how Sony could give us a 2.0 headset without PS5.

VX1 · Apr 20, 2018

Burdmayn said:
I've said numerous times that I think 2020 is the most likely choice for PS5 due to it being the "safest" one. I'll be damned if I wouldn't personally prefer a 2019 release though. There are just certain things I want out of the Playstation ecosystem that I feel are being constrained by hardware. PSVR is the biggest sticking point as I don't see how Sony could give us a 2.0 headset without PS5.

I also want it in 2019. for my own selfish reasons: i decided to skip pro and bought slim(cause it is small and quiet) back in 2016. and now waiting for ps5...

Papacheeks · Apr 20, 2018

2Blackcats said:
People still predicting that all PS5 games are going to work on PS4 for a few years are very wrong. Stop it.

No one is saying that. PS5 will play PS4 games, and when there are major releases there will be cross over as in PS4 versions of games will be made. Games that are releasing now like God of war and such will work on PS5, but PS5 games built for PS5 specs wont, hence a separate version.

Deleted member 5764 · Apr 20, 2018

VX1 said:
I also want it in 2019. for my own selfish reasons: i decided to skip pro and bought slim(cause it is small and quiet) back in 2016. and now waiting for ps5...

I'm in a similar boat! I had a PS4 but sold it to maximize trade-in value for the PS4 Pro. I was one of the dummies who thought it'd do a lot more for folks playing on a 1080p TV at launch. After the official reveal, I was pretty disappointed and decided to skip the Pro entirely.

My wife bought me a slim in holiday 2016 because Target had an amazing deal and she knew I felt dumb about selling my regular PS4. Now I'm in a holding pattern until PS5.

VX1 · Apr 20, 2018

Burdmayn said:
I'm in a similar boat! I had a PS4 but sold it to maximize trade-in value for the PS4 Pro. I was one of the dummies who thought it'd do a lot more for folks playing on a 1080p TV at launch. After the official reveal, I was pretty disappointed and decided to skip the Pro entirely.

My wife bought me a slim in holiday 2016 because Target had an amazing deal and she knew I felt dumb about selling my regular PS4. Now I'm in a holding pattern until PS5.

Ironically,i'm glad i picked up slim instead of pro when i hear so many people complaining how loud that thing is! That would drive me crazy.Slim is so quiet playing GOW and virtually everything else.

Miniature Kaiju · Apr 20, 2018

anexanhume said:
You want to announce at least 2 weeks before E3 as it should be a quiet period. Everyone will be holding back their big announcements, and you want to be the focus of chatter heading into E3 with at least a few weeks to build up to.

Yup, that's how I see it as well.

anexanhume said:
Reveal console and specs, then reveal price at E3.

Sony will reveal specs that will make everyone go "yup, that's a $499 console alright, guess they want that early adopter money". Then, at E3, boom: $399. Crowd goes insane.

VX1 said:
Which year...? ;-)

My heart says 2019, my mind says probably 2020.

TiG · Apr 20, 2018

What about just an extended show at E3 2020 to reveal the PS5?

Anyone think that is feasible?

anexanhume · Apr 20, 2018

Miniature Kaiju said:
Yup, that's how I see it as well.

Sony will reveal specs that will make everyone go "yup, that's a $499 console alright, guess they want that early adopter money". Then, at E3, boom: $399. Crowd goes insane.

My heart says 2019, my mind says probably 2020.

They shocked us twice, first with 8GB GDDR5, then again with $399. I don't know if they can do it again.

Miniature Kaiju · Apr 20, 2018

anexanhume said:
They shocked us twice, first with 8GB GDDR5, then again with $399. I don't know if they can do it again.

32GB GDDR6, $399. :D a man can dream. I trust them to surprise us (hopefully in a good, not a $599-please-understand way).

anexanhume · Apr 20, 2018

Miniature Kaiju said:
32GB GDDR6, $399. :D a man can dream. I trust them to surprise us (hopefully in a good, not a $599-please-understand way).

Personally I'd be more excited if they said 24GB. 32GB doesn't mean much more to me than 16GB, to be honest.

VX1 · Apr 20, 2018

I wonder what would Kutaragi put in PS5...! lol

JustAnotherOne · Apr 20, 2018

Finishing GoW,thinking how this amazing showcase of scope and visuals ran on mid-tier 2012 level tech just made me drooling thinking what Sony's first party studios,especially SSM,would be able to achieve on next-gen. I want next-gen so BAD ): it's not like I'm suffering with the PS4,but man...the possibilities a new-gen would bring...holy shit.

NotUS · Apr 20, 2018

JustAnotherOne said:
Finishing GoW,thinking how this amazing showcase of scope and visuals ran on mid-tier 2012 level tech just made me drooling thinking what Sony's first party studios,especially SSM,would be able to achieve on next-gen. I want next-gen so BAD ): it's not like I'm suffering with the PS4,but man...the possibilities a new-gen would bring...holy shit.

Exactly, you just need to look at developers who look to push tech each gen to give some perspective as to potential leap.

Last of Us (PS3) to Last of Us 2 (PS4)
Red Dead 1 to Red Dead 2
Witcher 2 to Witcher 3 etc

I would expect a similar leap, with some noticable improvements to draw distance, lighting and animation.

Deep Friar · Apr 20, 2018

I honestly think next gen will fully redefine games. The tech involved will benefit everyone.

Ecotic · Apr 20, 2018

VX1 said:
I wonder what would Kutaragi put in PS5...! lol

Looking back, Kutaragi kind of ruined the 'idea' behind the PS3 for future consideration. The idea behind the PS3 wasn't necessarily bad, his idea was to make a PS3 that absolutely smoked the competition, and could deliver a significantly extended generation due the absurd power behind it up front. To illustrate, a $399 box sold at cost will feel ancient after 5 years, whereas a $500-600 box sold at an initial $250-$300 loss could last nearly a decade before a successor is released. If you're the platform holder, gaining an extra 3-5 years of the generation's life and stealing your opponent's user base might be well worth the initial investment. It just depends how great the gains are over the life cycle versus the upfront losses. I wish I could know what Sony expected to happen.

Of course, the ultimate problem was that the PS3 that cost hundreds more to make than the 360 just didn't deliver hundreds more in performance, due to the bad architecture. So the idea failed, badly. Imagine the considerations behind the PS5 though in an alternate history where the PS3 outsold the 360 3:1, in part because it was so apparent that it a was significantly stronger machine.

Venom · Apr 20, 2018

VX1 said:
I wonder what would Kutaragi put in PS5...! lol

Zen 3 at 3.2ghz
15tf Navi GPU.
24gb GDDR6 & 8GB DDR4 for system RAM.
Next Gen Blu ray tech.

€699

Deleted member 3335 · Apr 20, 2018

Kutaragi always liked to put one powerful and flexible element into the console Emotion "floating point monster" Engine and later Cell despite adding another level of complexity to the hardware. Main motivation was to provide devs with a tool to improve graphics through a hardware generation while slowly getting the hardware and using the extra power for various things on a game to game basis.

There isn't really anything that could do the same job today.

Tregard · Apr 20, 2018

Anyone else feel like there's a good chance the next Xbox will have a little LCD screen on the front like the Scorpio dev kits did?

I also wonder if we'll ever see the IllumiRoom concept make a comeback, I thought this was the coolest thing imaginable

hamptonjack · Apr 21, 2018

Mark Cerny identified 8 tflops as the minimum power necessary to achieve native 4K across all titles. He was wrong.

This would only be true if all PS4 games ran natively in 1080p, which isn't the case. 4K = 1080p x 4 (duh), and so, 1.84 tflops (PS4's amount of power) times 4 is 7.36--Cerny rounded this up to 8 tflops.

The PS4's lowest baseline resolution is usually 900p. So if we're gonna play Mark Cerny's game of multiplying up to 4K, then 900p times 5.76 will get us there. 1.84 tflops times 5.76 is 10.59.

So, assuming the same level of graphical quality as PS4, we'll need about ~11tflops of power to run every title at native 4K.

But, I think most of us want more than just the same level of graphical quality at a higher resolution, so I'd honestly say that 13-15 tflops is the minimum requirement for next-gen not to be a massive disappointment from a graphical perspective.

If we actually do get 8-10 tflops like many are predicting, we won't even be seeing native 4K across all releases, and I seriously doubt the quality of rendering will be improved enough to warrant buying a $400 next-gen console in the first place.

Sony needs to wait it out until they can afford to drop a 13-15 tflop machine for $400. Hopefully it'll be practical by 2020, but that remains to be seen.

Wololo · Apr 21, 2018

Chitown B said:
PS4 was announced the furthest out and has sold the most by far. So, the argument doesn't really hold up.

Part of me wonders if they announced the PS4 when they did because there was so many Orbis rumours coming in so fast we had pics of the Devkit and a prototype controller I wonder Sony felt like they had to say something official on it instead of people hearing about it through second hand rumours.

TheThreadsThatBindUs · Apr 21, 2018

hamptonjack said:
Mark Cerny identified 8 tflops as the minimum power necessary to achieve native 4K across all titles. He was wrong.

This would only be true if all PS4 games ran natively in 1080p, which isn't the case. 4K = 1080p x 4 (duh), and so, 1.84 tflops (PS4's amount of power) times 4 is 7.36--Cerny rounded this up to 8 tflops.

The PS4's lowest baseline resolution is usually 900p. So if we're gonna play Mark Cerny's game of multiplying up to 4K, then 900p times 5.76 will get us there. 1.84 tflops times 5.76 is 10.59.

So, assuming the same level of graphical quality as PS4, we'll need about ~11tflops of power to run every title at native 4K.

But, I think most of us want more than just the same level of graphical quality at a higher resolution, so I'd honestly say that 13-15 tflops is the minimum requirement for next-gen not to be a massive disappointment from a graphical perspective.

If we actually do get 8-10 tflops like many are predicting, we won't even be seeing native 4K across all releases, and I seriously doubt the quality of rendering will be improved enough to warrant buying a $400 next-gen console in the first place.

Sony needs to wait it out until they can afford to drop a 13-15 tflop machine for $400. Hopefully it'll be practical by 2020, but that remains to be seen.

So Mark Cerny, one of the smartest guys in the industry and the brains behind the PS4, which is quickly on its way to becoming the second best selling console of all time, was wrong because he used the word "all" (which I'm not even sure if he did) when he said 8 TFLOPs would be enough to run PS4 games at 4K—despite the fact that the prevailing majority of PS4 games run at 1080p and the outliers are the exception to the rule not the rule? Sorry, but I think you need to tone down the arrogance for a moment.

Considering the sheer number of games the Xbox 1X is able to run at 4K with only 6TFLOPs, (with most non-native 4K games being so because they are also pushing higher fidelity assets too) I think that well and truly invalidates your argument here. 8TFLOPs is more than enough to push most if not all PS4 games with existing PS4 asset fidelity to 4K—since contrary to your assumption, scaling resolution vs. SP TFLOPs performance isn't linear... but then you'd know that if you were as informed as Cerny is.

Socky · Apr 21, 2018

The whole premise that a next-gen leap in visuals is dependent on native 4K is flawed in my view.

"Native 4K" might sound good on the back of a box, but in practice it's probably a poor trade-off versus 4K-CB + better graphical improvements.

Besides, neither company need to even talk about 4K as a thing next-gen because in the Pro/X1X it's already the accepted standard resolution. Talking about 4K is essentially pointless now; it's here and will exist in various forms - CB, variable, native - from now and for the foreseeable future.

TheThreadsThatBindUs · Apr 21, 2018

Socky said:
The whole premise that a next-gen leap in visuals is dependent on native 4K is flawed in my view.

"Native 4K" might sound good on the back of a box, but in practice it's probably a poor trade-off versus 4K-CB + better graphical improvements.

Besides, neither company need to even talk about 4K as a thing next-gen because in the Pro/X1X it's already the accepted standard resolution. Talking about 4K is essentially pointless now; it's here and will exist in various forms - CB, variable, native - from now and for the foreseeable future.

I agree completely.

Number9 · Apr 21, 2018

Socky said:
The whole premise that a next-gen leap in visuals is dependent on native 4K is flawed in my view.

"Native 4K" might sound good on the back of a box, but in practice it's probably a poor trade-off versus 4K-CB + better graphical improvements.

Besides, neither company need to even talk about 4K as a thing next-gen because in the Pro/X1X it's already the accepted standard resolution. Talking about 4K is essentially pointless now; it's here and will exist in various forms - CB, variable, native - from now and for the foreseeable future.

This. For the mainstream audience 4K is already here, neither company is going to waste a lot of time pointing out the benefits of native 4K over upscaled versions.

PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - timing and specification

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One Winged Slayer

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