PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - timing and specification

[Penny Royal]

100% depends on how much software abstraction the ps4 devkit uses. if the pro is anything to go by, b/c isnt a garentee on the ps5, but its a 100% it will be on ms console.

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Leaving aside that a mod with a good track record (Matt) and Kyoufu making a couple of account endangering (if proven wrong) statements about it, Mark Cerny has been granted a patent for a BC mode of operation that, if I understand it's main principles, negates the abstraction layer issue.

I don't want to derail too much about BC, but wayyyy back at the start of this gen on the Old Country I argued that PS4 was basically an ecosystem reset for Playstation - Sony leaving behind the legacy of the first three consoles (which is why despite the ease with which it could be done direct PS1/2 BC hasn't happened despite Sony's history of leading the field with BC) and beginning something new.

 

[BreakAtmo]

PS5 will 100% be backwards compatible, otherwise how would you be able to play FFVII Remake in its entirety?

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Well, technically they could release Part 1 on PS4, then make a PS5 version of Part 1 before doing Parts 2 and 3 as PS5 exclusives. "Play it first on PS4"...

I don't buy that of course. Most likely they'll be PS4 games with PS4 Pro and PS5 patches.

 

[BubblegumNemesis]

Dang guys I know it's a bit off topic but it must be so interesting to build a console, I can only imagine Cerny and his team right now doing meetings to decide what to put in the system, how the OS would evolve, what developers want, compromises and so on. It's fascinating (way more than how a smartphone is built for example, here they have to build something for at least 5 years if not more).

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Not really. Current and next gen console are basically PCs, there are not many "exciting" decisions to be made. The only innovation is in the low level engineering "tricks". Like with X1X the cooling, the "impossible" mesh and the individually tweaked voltages. Component wise, it is all very much off the shelf stuff.

 

[The Great Khali]

One thing I am hoping for PS5 is PS4 games getting a free patch instead of 4K remasters. If I gave go buy PS5 version of Overwatch or PS5 version of Street Fighter V that would be annoying. Even if Overwatch and Street Fighter V are fully backwards compatible but knowing there is another 4K version available exclusive to PS5 will be annoying. They need to make it like PC gaming where old software gets patched to make use of new hardware.

 

[dgrdsv]

the other thing that has kept me from consoles peroid this gen is 60fps

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This gen? When was the last gen where 60 fps was a standard?

 

[gcwy]

This gen? When was the last gen where 60 fps was a standard?

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16 bit console gen. In other words, never.

 

[David Ricardo]

This gen? When was the last gen where 60 fps was a standard?

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It was never a standard but CPU power is more important to get to 60 fps than GPU. This gen CPUs are relatively shit, so it's harder to get to 60 fps than in previous gens. I hope that changes next gen with Zen CPUs.

 

[Miniature Kaiju]

It was never a standard but CPU power is more important to get to 60 fps than GPU. This gen CPUs are relatively shit, so it's harder to get to 60 fps than in previous gens.

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Absolutely nothing of what you said is true. Nothing. GPUs and CPUs are about as equally important when targeting a certain frame rate, and which one will have more of an impact is a case by case thing, what a specific game is trying to achieve. This gen's CPUs are as constraining as any other gen's; that is, FPS was always and always will be a matter of game design, not hardware power.

 

[Gonzalo]

So from what I'm reading in this thread, the most important thing is that the PS5 breaks away from the CPU codenamed Jaguar, and that whichever CPU replaces it will be a huge jump on the 2013 PS4s, but some could be an even greater jump than others...

 

[Papacheeks]

So from what I'm reading in this thread, the most important thing is that the PS5 breaks away from the CPU codenamed Jaguar, and that whichever CPU replaces it will be a huge jump on the 2013 PS4s, but some could be an even greater jump than others...

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Correct. If they go with something similar to zen in design and we get a cpu with 8 zen cores running at 2.6-2.7ghz or higher we will see huge improvements going forward especially in frame rates, system functionality response time, and multi-tasking. You can now have a game, service open and be messaging someone or sending a screenshot in 4k to someone without skipping a beat.

The BC stuff is going to be interesting as the way it's been talking about with Cerny's patent makes is sound very different than how MS handles BC.

 

[David Ricardo]

Absolutely nothing of what you said is true. Nothing. GPUs and CPUs are about as equally important when targeting a certain frame rate, and which one will have more of an impact is a case by case thing, what a specific game is trying to achieve. This gen's CPUs are as constraining as any other gen's; that is, FPS was always and always will be a matter of game design, not hardware power.

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If your frame rate is low and the problem is the GPU, you always can lower the resolution or detail settings to improve performance. If the problem is in the CPU, it's much harder problem to solve. This gen consoles have weak ass CPUs compared to the GPUs. So that's that.

Technically, if you design your game around the console limitations targeting 60 fps, you could make any game run at 60 fps. But if you want to have good physics and AI, like people would expect from a current gen game, you will have a hard time getting there.

 

[Miniature Kaiju]

If the problem is in the CPU, it's much harder problem to solve.

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Not really, no. It will be a case by case thing, but you can always rethink draw calls, simulation depth, number of simulated entities, etc. Rethink the scale and work backwards. The same that is done for graphics.

But if you want to have good physics and AI, like people would expect from a current gen game, you will have a hard time getting there.

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Quite a bit of AI and physics work is done GPU side, nowadays. CPU won't be the bottleneck there unless devs designed it so.

 

[Deleted member 5764]

Perhaps I've missed it, but did anyone share a link to Mark Cerny's patent? If not that, it'd be neat to see someone's breakdown of it.

 

[Sidewinder]

Correct. If they go with something similar to zen in design and we get a cpu with 8 zen cores running at 2.6-2.7ghz or higher we will see huge improvements going forward especially in frame rates, system functionality response time, and multi-tasking. You can now have a game, service open and be messaging someone or sending a screenshot in 4k to someone without skipping a beat.

The BC stuff is going to be interesting as the way it's been talking about with Cerny's patent makes is sound very different than how MS handles BC.

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Could you elaborate on the potential differences?

 

[dgrdsv]

It was never a standard but CPU power is more important to get to 60 fps than GPU.

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No. Just no.

This gen CPUs are relatively shit, so it's harder to get to 60 fps than in previous gens. I hope that changes next gen with Zen CPUs.

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This gen CPUs are miles better than in previous gens. The only reason devs are targeting 30 fps is because they choose so.

 

[DavidDesu]

One thing I am hoping for PS5 is PS4 games getting a free patch instead of 4K remasters. If I gave go buy PS5 version of Overwatch or PS5 version of Street Fighter V that would be annoying. Even if Overwatch and Street Fighter V are fully backwards compatible but knowing there is another 4K version available exclusive to PS5 will be annoying. They need to make it like PC gaming where old software gets patched to make use of new hardware.

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I'll give Microsoft their due, what they're doing with BC on the XB1X could very well sway Sony to do more of the same like this than they originally planned, so everybody wins.

I personally just think Sony must offer a full BC and from all the technical know how out there it seems like it shouldn't be a very difficult thing to do. Even just from a consumer stand point, we've all got a pretty big digital library on our PS4's and it would be insane to imagine we're not going to be able to carry that forward from day one on PS5, especially when the competition are knee deep into doing that for their consumer base.

I do hope whatever they do offers automatic enhancements to PS4 games and isn't just rigidly stuck to the exact same performance profile as base PS4 or Pro versions. Still I'd be happy enough of that's all we got though.

I really hope going forward games are designed as much as they can be to take advantage of future improvements so enhancements can occur automatically rather than needing patches.

 

[Silencerx98]

It was never a standard but CPU power is more important to get to 60 fps than GPU. This gen CPUs are relatively shit, so it's harder to get to 60 fps than in previous gens. I hope that changes next gen with Zen CPUs.

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Others already corrected you on the technical side, but I'm still perplexed by the bolded statement. Like what? We've had a LOT more 60FPS titles this gen compared to the last despite the "relatively shit CPU's". Furthermore, those titles that do target 60FPS hold it much better than the "perceptual" 60FPS that was quite common last gen. Sure, the number of 60FPS titles were significantly higher in the PS2 gen, but it's a huge step up over last gen.

 

[Deleted member 5764]

I'll give Microsoft their due, what they're doing with BC on the XB1X could very well sway Sony to do more of the same like this than they originally planned, so everybody wins.

I personally just think Sony must offer a full BC and from all the technical know how out there it seems like it shouldn't be a very difficult thing to do. Even just from a consumer stand point, we've all got a pretty big digital library on our PS4's and it would be insane to imagine we're not going to be able to carry that forward from day one on PS5, especially when the competition are knee deep into doing that for their consumer base.

I do hope whatever they do offers automatic enhancements to PS4 games and isn't just rigidly stuck to the exact same performance profile as base PS4 or Pro versions. Still I'd be happy enough of that's all we got though.

I really hope going forward games are designed as much as they can be to take advantage of future improvements so enhancements can occur automatically rather than needing patches.

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To Sony's credit, they're already being swayed by Microsoft's approach with the Xbox One X in a way. "Boost" mode on PS4 Pro utilizes the hardware overhead for non-patched games, and I believe the newest OS update will add in system-level supersampling for 4K patched titles. If they could extend the "boost" mode on PS5 to offer improvements over the PS4 Pro patched version of a game, that'd be more than enough for me!

 

[Rikalaus]

Perhaps I've missed it, but did anyone share a link to Mark Cerny's patent? If not that, it'd be neat to see someone's breakdown of it.

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Pretty sure its this one

https://patents.justia.com/patent/9892024

 

[David Ricardo]

Not really, no. It will be a case by case thing, but you can always rethink draw calls, simulation depth, number of simulated entities, etc. Rethink the scale and work backwards. The same that is done for graphics.

Quite a bit of AI and physics work is done GPU side, nowadays. CPU won't be the bottleneck there unless devs designed it so.

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If devs design around the limitations of the CPU, they will be able to hit 60 fps with every game. But if the CPU is too weak, developers are going to be much more likely to choose 30 fps.

 

[Socky]

I'm not even sure if the PS5 controller would need to split to work. They could honestly just make a pair of Oculus/Vive/Move-style VR controllers. I don't see why that wouldn't also be just fine for normal games.

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I really don't see why connecting into a more traditional controller shape would even be necessary. Don't a lot of people find using a pair of controllers more comfortable anyway?

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I agree, there's no reason the L and R controllers need to connect and they could work just like Move/Navi or Move pairs currently do (and might even be developed as single-hand controllers used in pairs, a la Move).

However, if you need both sides for most, if not all, games, it could be a pain to have them separated constantly - finding them, matching multiple pairs, or having them both equally and consistently charged, for example. (There are also (probably) single elements like charge ports and headphone sockets which might be better/cheaper if not duplicated).

Bearing that in mind, designing the two hand-sections to join together might be a more practical solution and one more familiar to the mass market, although thinking about the design issues, perhaps not one as workable or aesthetically satisfying as twin separates.

 

[Expy]

Those of you who want split controller... How do you think that'll work with PS4 BC? It does require the touchpad.

 

[BreakAtmo]

I agree, there's no reason the L and R controllers need to connect and they could work just like Move/Navi or Move pairs currently do (and might even be developed as single-hand controllers used in pairs, a la Move).

However, if you need both sides for most, if not all, games, it could be a pain to have them separated constantly - finding them, matching multiple pairs, or having them both equally and consistently charged, for example. (There are also (probably) single elements like charge ports and headphone sockets which might be better/cheaper if not duplicated).

Bearing that in mind, designing the two hand-sections to join together might be a more practical solution and one more familiar to the mass market, although thinking about the design issues, perhaps not one as workable or aesthetically satisfying as twin separates.

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Fair points. I hadn't thought about the charge ports and headphone sockets. I suppose the headphones could just go in the right controller only, but yeah, you'd need to charge ports unless they got wireless charging working. It comes down to just how much that stuff matters compared to, as you said, the limitations that making connectable controllers would bring.

Those of you who want split controller... How do you think that'll work with PS4 BC? It does require the touchpad.

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Besides just using a DS4, a couple of ring finger buttons that could work with games that just use the touchpad as one or two buttons, and maybe motion control emulation as an option.

 

[Carn]

Those of you who want split controller... How do you think that'll work with PS4 BC? It does require the touchpad.

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it doesnt need to be totally symetrical. just keep the touchpad on the L or R controller.

 

[BreakAtmo]

it doesnt need to be totally symetrical. just keep the touchpad on the L or R controller.

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Eh, that wouldn't really work. The touchpad is designed to be at an equal distance from both hands. If it was on the right controller, swiping from left to right would be a pain, for example.

 

[Deleted member 5764]

Those of you who want split controller... How do you think that'll work with PS4 BC? It does require the touchpad.

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I asked this question before, but didn't really get a definitive answer. How many PS4 games "require" the touch pad as a control method? Almost every title I can think of just uses it as a button.

 

[Kyoufu]

I'd prefer if they designed separate Move 2.0 controllers for PSVR and keep the DualShock design intact. Let the DS5 be the best it can be for traditional controls and make an updated Move built specifically for VR.

 

[Carn]

Eh, that wouldn't really work. The touchpad is designed to be at an equal distance from both hands. If it was on the right controller, swiping from left to right would be a pain, for example.

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Oh maybe I understood the question wrong. I thought that it was about where the touchpad would go if you'd 'split' the controller.

 

[RoboPlato]

I asked this question before, but didn't really get a definitive answer. How many PS4 games "require" the touch pad as a control method? Almost every title I can think of just uses it as a button.

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It's an important interaction motion in inFamous Second Son/First Light and how you chose the modes on your drone in Shadow Fall. I really wish more games utilized it. I like the touchpad a lot. It was great in Far Cry 4 for selecting weapons on the weapon wheel but they dropped that in Primal.

 

[BreakAtmo]

I'd prefer if they designed separate Move 2.0 controllers for PSVR and keep the DualShock design intact. Let the DS5 be the best it can be for traditional controls and make an updated Move built specifically for VR.

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What would you add to the DS5 that would be worth not being able to use your DS4s with the PS5? I feel like just letting people use the DS4 would be simpler.

 

[Deleted member 1326]

I'd prefer if they designed separate Move 2.0 controllers for PSVR and keep the DualShock design intact. Let the DS5 be the best it can be for traditional controls and make an updated Move built specifically for VR.

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Me too.

 

[Kyoufu]

What would you add to the DS5 that would be worth not being able to use your DS4s with the PS5? I feel like just letting people use the DS4 would be simpler.

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Bluetooth 5.0, much, much bigger battery life (40+ hours versus DS4's 12 hours), USB-C, better audio from the headphone port, less controller latency, better build quality, better analogue stick thumb grips, etc.

There's a lot of improvements they can make.

 

[Deleted member 5764]

It's an important interaction motion in inFamous Second Son/First Light and how you chose the modes on your drone in Shadow Fall. I really wish more games utilized it. I like the touchpad a lot. It was great in Far Cry 4 for selecting weapons on the weapon wheel but they dropped that in Primal.

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Thanks! I also found this list from 2015 that seems to be a pretty good indicator of what games "need" the touch pad. Definitely not conclusive, but good enough! The list of those that require the "touch" functionality is very small though. Definitely small enough that Sony may not see it as an issue for PS4 BC if they decide to forgo the touchpad on PS5. First party studios could always issue patches.

For me, I do like the touch pad but just don't find myself being impressed by how devs use it. As a result, I don't think I'd be too upset to see it gone. They could just mimic the Switch's control method and bring back Start/Select to replace the left/right functionality. Then have a separate button for screenshots.


As for folks talking about split controllers, I say nay. There's just something comforting about holding a "normal" controller. It's enough that Nintendo felt the need to include a plastic "grip" with every Switch console rather than forcing people to use Split JoyCon.

 

[anexanhume]

I'm sure a lot of people would rather wait another year (or two) for a substantial console hardware leap than get their hands on a next generation console early only to whine about the specs all generation.

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And that might be what we get if Sony and MS weren't direct competitors. At this point, I think they have to estimate the earliest date they could expect their competitor to launch and make sure they have a chip taped out to meet that launch date. Neither wants to be caught flat-footed and launch a year later than their competitor.

 

[Blanquito]

Pretty sure its this one

https://patents.justia.com/patent/9892024

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I saw this before, but actually took the time to read a bit of it this time.

Note: I'm not a game dev, so I may get this wrong. But here's my interpretation of the patent:

It almost appears as if this is a developer tool that would also be something that would be required in certification; the patent is about a method/system that changes the timings/performance of both CPU and GPUs, and making them perform both faster and slower than the original device (both were equally emphasized throughout the patent, so I thought that was interesting).

The goal of the patented system is to get code to be able to test game code with different hardware and speeds and make it resilient to any changes in hardware based on timing -- if that new hardware is faster or slower, there is the possibility of it affecting logic and causing errors. It can randomly make one core go slow, or make all cores go faster, etc. etc.

To summarize, to me this sounds like a tool for game developers to use to make sure that they write code that is less likely to break when it comes to forward and backward compatibility. Complete theory here, but it almost seems like, to me, this would also be something that you would want to have be part of your certification process so that games on your platform can handle faster (and slower?) hardware without needing to patch it in the future.

 

[Miniature Kaiju]

To summarize, to me this sounds like a tool for game developers to use to make sure that they write code that is less likely to break when it comes to forward and backward compatibility. Complete theory here, but it almost seems like, to me, this would also be something that you would want to have be part of your certification process so that games on your platform can handle faster (and slower?) hardware without needing to patch it in the future.

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Exactly the same as my reading, yup. I imagine it would also be useful to go through the back catalog, identify what and how it breaks, to issue patches if necessary (or create a compatibility mode or something similar).

 

[gcwy]

And that might be what we get if Sony and MS weren't direct competitors. At this point, I think they have to estimate the earliest date they could expect their competitor to launch and make sure they have a chip taped out to meet that launch date. Neither wants to be caught flat-footed and launch a year later than their competitor.

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I don't know, launching later might just work in their favor, granted they don't shit the bed with anti-consumer stuff like Xbox One's DRM policies at launch or PS3's price.

 

[Llazy]

Marcus Sellers is saying that dev kits have gone out earlier this year.

 

[Kgrock618]

Marcus Sellers is saying that dev kits have gone out earlier this year.

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Is this guy credible?

 

[2Blackcats]

Marcus Sellers is saying that dev kits have gone out earlier this year.

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Who's he?

 

[Deleted member 123]

Marcus Sellers is saying that dev kits have gone out earlier this year.

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It's most likely just a joke and is trying to troll others. Sort of like a scam.

However if it turns to be true, then I wonder how PS5 will compete with Switch..

 

[Sulik2]

Marcus Sellers is saying that dev kits have gone out earlier this year.

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This would honestly be bad news it true. There is no way a PS5 will be powerful enough to be a next gen console with a 2019 release.

 

[Kyoufu]

This would honestly be bad news it true. There is no way a PS5 will be powerful enough to be a next gen console with a 2019 release.

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And why is that?

 

[Deleted member 5764]

Marcus Sellers is saying that dev kits have gone out earlier this year.

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That guy just makes things up left and right in attempt to see what "sticks" IMO. Haven't seen any indications that he actually has insider info, and he spouts off "insider" information on an almost daily basis.

This would honestly be bad news it true. There is no way a PS5 will be powerful enough to be a next gen console with a 2019 release.

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While I don't personally believe this "rumor" just yet, I'm not sure why you'd think this way. I've seen reasonable arguments that the Xbox One X could have qualified as a "next gen" console if it were released with a different CPU.

 

[Miniature Kaiju]

This would honestly be bad news it true. There is no way a PS5 will be powerful enough to be a next gen console with a 2019 release.

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I'm curious here, how much power do you think a PS5 would need to pack to qualify as "next gen" in your opinion?

 

[Sulik2]

I'm curious here, how much power do you think a PS5 would need to pack to qualify as "next gen" in your opinion?

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15 TF at minimum. The next gen consoles need to be able to run 4k TVs for 5-7 years. They need to be significant upgrades over the current X and Pro to do that. I don't think we are there yet with 7nm to provide that level of power at the price point console manufactures need.

 

[Miniature Kaiju]

15 TF at minimum. The next gen consoles need to be able to run 4k TVs for 5-7 years.

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Based on what you achieved this magical number? What makes you think any less than that won't be able to carry a gen? Don't you think it is possible we'll get mid-gen refreshes after, say, 3 or 4 years, when we get down to the next node?

 

[Anthony Hopkins]

15 TF at minimum. The next gen consoles need to be able to run 4k TVs for 5-7 years. They need to be significant upgrades over the current X and Pro to do that. I don't think we are there yet with 7nm to provide that level of power at the price point console manufactures need.

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15tflop would be ideal, but looking at console trends, I think we are more likely to get 12tflop in 2020 and 10tflop in 2019

Look at it like this

2013: 1.84tflops
2016: 4.2
2019: 9.7

 

[Miniature Kaiju]

15tflop would be ideal, but looking at console trends, I think we are more likely to get 12tflop in 2020 and 10tflop in 2019

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A $499 console, going the X route (bigger die, pushed thermals, more expensive cooling solution) could probably push 15TF in 2020. Sony won't release a $499 console, though.

 

[2Blackcats]

A $499 console, going the X route (bigger die, pushed thermals, more expensive cooling solution) could probably push 15TF in 2020. Sony won't release a $499 console, though.

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They might release a $499 console, they just won't charge $499 for it.