PS5 and Xbox Series speculation launch thread |OT9| - For flops sake!

[HighspeedRefleX]

This may be a silly question but can the even the less powerful of the two pull off this level of visual complexity with commensurate texture detail and lighting precision in-engine real time?

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Yes, the opening level of KZSF comes close thanks to a lot smoke and mirrors (par for every real time rendering project) but that segment of Coruscant looks to be on a different level (iirc, that portion was not running real time).

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Some insider , possibly Klee and please correct and forgive me if I make mistakes by repeating the info (been a while since I read it) mentioned that what he saw was basically The Order 1886 visual fidelity with great lighting while everything felt "alive". It's not easy to answer your question. A linear game in which you just fly over a huge city without the ability to go everywhere just like KZSF could have that kind of complexity. Not with Open worlds or not without a lot of potentially reskinned copy/paste stuff. Looks way too ambitious even for early PS6 imo. And I may be horribly wrong lol.

 

[Mass Nerder]

Really? Instagram and Twitter likes are the new console wars battlefront? Are you people for real?

We truly are plumbing new depths here. For the love of god let there please be a new leak to discuss instead.

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This thread has been a low key console war shitfest for a long time now. Super cringey.

 

[anexanhume]

Re-rendered the power port more to scale and to reflect the type of port it is, 30 second job in MS paint lol

Should be an internal PSU then; no power brick.

Same as the cable for PS3/PS4/Xbox One S/Xbox One S

Which I think maxes out at 275watts.

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Ah yes, a compact flash port.

Isn't that like huge news? If there are unexpected peformance gains in 7nm and mobile it will be pretty significant for the consoles, no?

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Navi is already 7nm. The key news is that they actually seem to have redesigned the GPU for mobile. Not just downclocked an equivalent desktop part.

 

[Deleted member 57361]

So in terms of just graphics, at 9TF we should be looking at a leap somewhat comparable to PS3->PS4, and then enhancements to game design with the SSD and CPU? That doesn't sound bad at all.

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Because it's not bad. SDD and CPU and the big deals, not TFlops.

 

[Deleted member 18951]

Very true. However, that's what's fun about watching from the outside - see new approaches and how the industry responds. I think they are doing a really good job so far, even if I may have done it differently.

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I can imagine! Watching from the sidelines and seeing what they're doing and thinking good job or you shouldn't do that must be a weird experience for you, although probably pretty enjoyable. I also think they've done a great job so far though I think you should text Phil and tell him to do a reveal event at the end of February, nothing else happening around then I dont think ;p

 

[MrKlaw]

I wasn't comparing 7nm to 16nm. You are right that as nodes shrink, manufacturing goes up (IIRC 16nm was the last time it was projected to be cheaper).

That said, the point still stands that what you are paying for is the number of usable chips you get from a sheet, regardless of what actual technology is inside that chip. That development effort was paid for separately.

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Yes - and it's a really important thing to understand regarding console BOM so thanks for highlighting it

 

[Patent]

Too wide, unless they have a special enclosure.

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I think its a slot but i feel like they are gonna come in a cart like the xbox 360 s's hard drive

 

[Nos]

From the perspective of the BOM, yes.

I don't want to get into the business relationships and how these things are funded, but if you're focused on how the console manufactures look at pricing and profitability, you pay for a giant sheet of wafers. Some of them are good, some of them are bad. How many working wafers you get off that sheet is how you price the chip.

Bigger chip = less wafers = more cost.
Smaller chip = more wafers (also better yields) = less cost.

The technology that's actually inside the chip is largely irrelevant to the costs at the scale of consoles. That's why PC price parts analogies don't work.

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Today I learned.
Thank you for your input

You're asking the guy who launched 3 Xbox consoles how the cost of consoles works?

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Uh, Yes?
Who should I ask then?

 

[BitsandBytes]

I think that cable goes to 2.5A @ 250v so should be plenty of watts

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I'm still wondering about this. Why did Sony switch back to the C14/Kettle inlet for their 310W PSU in Pro? I would expect the rumoured XSX specs to have at least a 350W PSU. Maybe there is an electrician on the thread!?

 

[Fabtacular]

Albert's input on this has been extremely interesting/useful.

 

[tomwarren]

Very true. However, that's what's fun about watching from the outside - see new approaches and how the industry responds. I think they are doing a really good job so far, even if I may have done it differently.

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Albert! How would you have done things differently? Curious :)

 

[mangochutney]

Would the absence of a USB C port in anyway compromise the consoles ability to cater to the Elite Series 2 controller? That uses USB C and is supposed to be compatible with the Series X.

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The USB-C end is the controller end. The other end is USB-A.

 

[DeadlyVirus]

Would the absence of a USB C port in anyway compromise the consoles ability to cater to the Elite Series 2 controller? That uses USB C and is supposed to be compatible with the Series X.

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USB-C to USB-A cables exist

 

[anexanhume]

Albert's input on this has been extremely interesting/useful.

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No offense to Albert Penello and his wealth of experience, but many in this thread have been saying the same things regarding costs. Some people just choose to ignore.

 

[Expy]

No offense to Albert Penello and his wealth of experience, but many in this thread have been saying the same things regarding costs. Some people just choose to ignore.

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Yea, there's a lot of good information in this thread that goes unchecked.

 

[riotous]

I think that cable goes to 2.5A @ 250v so should be plenty of watts

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Yeah just did the research, poster earlier in the thread was wrong.

In NA it's 10A @ 125v.. either way plenty-o-watts

 

[Bosch]

I wasn't comparing 7nm to 16nm. You are right that as nodes shrink, manufacturing goes up (IIRC 16nm was the last time it was projected to be cheaper).

That said, the point still stands that what you are paying for is the number of usable chips you get from a sheet, regardless of what actual technology is inside that chip. That development effort was paid for separately.

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Sir do you still expect consoles with less than 12tf? With last rumours and speculation s what you think we gonna get?

 

[zedox]

No offense to Albert Penello and his wealth of experience, but many in this thread have been saying the same things regarding costs. Some people just choose to ignore.

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You have to realize that not everyone is going to read everything that goes on in a high moving thread as this one...

 

[SublimeAnarky]

Why would it? The Xbox One does't have a USB C port either.

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True. Didn't think that through.

On the flip side then, does having a USB C input improve the Elite Series 2 in any way? Charge speed?

 

[MrKlaw]

I'm still wondering about this. Why did Sony switch back to the C14/Kettle inlet for their 310W PSU in Pro? I would expect the rumoured XSX specs to have at least a 350W PSU. Maybe there is an electrician on the thread!?

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https://www.stayonline.com/product-resources/reference-iec320.asp

figure of 8 is C7 I think - 250v/2.5A international, 125v/10A (!) US

kettle is C13/14 - 250v/10A international, 125v 15A US

so even the lower powered one should be 625W which would be more than enough

 

[pure]

Ah yes, a compact flash port.



Navi is already 7nm. The key news is that they actually seem to have redesigned the GPU for mobile. Not just downclocked an equivalent desktop part.

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Huh, somehow i thought Navi was still on a bigger node. Still, its clear there a lot we dont know about the new console GPUs. Exciting.

 

[Dave.]

I think that cable goes to 2.5A @ 250v so should be plenty of watts

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The max-safe rating of a cable is in Amps, so in our UK power systems this is capable of handling plenty of Watts - but in the USA's potentially 110V it is a max of 275W.

 

[Albert Penello]

Albert! How would you have done things differently? Curious :)

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Nothing specifically, and it's also hard to say given that I don't know what's happening internally and what information they have from partners or other external factors. Which is to say - I don't have the details they have to judge why they are doing things a certain way.

The only thing that strikes me as different from previous Xbox launches is the way they are dolling out small bits of information over a period of time, and starting much earlier. It's different and would not have been the expected way of doing it, but it seems to be working really well. So that's been an interesting takeaway for me vs. doing a huge unveil event and be able to go deeper on questions.

Otherwise I'll have to armchair quarterback what they do just like everyone else.

And Tom I hope it's OK to ask you don't report on things I say here. If I make the *news* then I stop posting. I'm trying to be a helpful commenter in this forum not an insider generating more heat on this console war. Appreciate that if you could :)

 

[Bosch]

So in terms of just graphics, at 9TF we should be looking at a leap somewhat comparable to PS3->PS4, and then enhancements to game design with the SSD and CPU? That doesn't sound bad at all.

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Better, 9 tflops will be 7x times ps4 and 2.5 pro because of rdna eficiency.

 

[Klaw]

The only thing that strikes me as different from previous Xbox launches is the way they are dolling out small bits of information over a period of time, and starting much earlier. It's different and would not have been the expected way of doing it, but it seems to be working really well. So that's been an interesting takeaway for me vs. doing a huge unveil event and be able to go deeper on questions.

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Considering the numerous mistakes, like people saying different things, when they revealed Xbox One, it seems like a good take to just throw some information, see how people react, and adapt their narrative ! And as you said, it seems to work pretty well unitl now.

 

[Lady Gaia]

"I'll just play it on PC" has been a line warriors been using for years.

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It's also a line used by people who play games on PC, which is important because not everything is a tactic in the unending console war. In fact, for most sane people, precisely none of their statements or behaviors are driven by that meaningless crusade. Instead, it's likely that Mike is simply expressing himself. He almost certainly has friends and former co-workers that he wishes well at Microsoft. Chances are he also has independent opinions about decisions and whether he agrees or disagrees with them that he is now much more free to express. Most obviously of all, he seems to genuinely enjoy games regardless of their corporate affiliation, and intends to own hardware on which to play them. Some games that people happen to enjoy are only playable on PlayStation hardware. It's really not that complicated or insidious.

 

[anexanhume]

You have to realize that not everyone is going to read everything that goes on in a high moving thread as this one...

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No, I mean people actively disputing or dismissing these same points. Not just people skipping some posts. We all do that.

Person A: "OMG a 2080 costs 900, there's no way you'll get that performance in a console!!!"

Person B: "Actually, [numbers]"

Person A: "Whatever, consoles will be 8TF because that's what a 5700 is. You can't change my mind."

 

[gundamkyoukai]

You have to realize that not everyone is going to read everything that goes on in a high moving thread as this one...

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Truth is the last page has been people saying the same thing .
In fact it gets repeat every few months .
People looking at the price of PC parts and saying consoles going to cost this or that make no sense if you just think about it for a short while.
People seem to have this idea that AMD getting there act together some what mean super expensive consoles .

 

[flattie]

The max-safe rating of a cable is in Amps, so in our UK power systems this is capable of handling plenty of Watts - but in the USA's potentially 110V it is a max of 275W.

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Not my part of the world, but don't the standard IEC current limits get lifted in the US?

Edit

LTTP. Apparently it does, according to the posts above.

 

[Albert Penello]

Considering the numerous mistakes, like people saying different things, when they revealed Xbox One, it seems like a good take to just throw some information, see how people react, and adapt their narrative ! And as you said, it seems to work pretty well unitl now.

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Lots went wrong with that launch, but I like to take the long view and remember OG Xbox and Xbox 360 which went pretty well, as did Scorpio. So X1 is still the anomaly for Xbox console launch failures.

It would be like saying Sony botches launches just because of the PS3. Sure, one bad one but it largely recovered, and still had 3 huge successes.

 

[Deleted member 4761]

Too wide, unless they have a special enclosure.

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Yes.
But the mockup was made by Turrot.
It's not 1:1 specifications.
That's probably M.2 NVMe Slot.

 

[sleepr]

Albert Penello I'm really curious about one thing and if possible would like you to share your experience with us. Did the xbox team had any idea of what the PS4 specs were before it was announced on that february press conference? I'm sure you guys must "hear things" from industry partners and such, or am I wrong?

 

[zedox]

No, I mean people actively disputing or dismissing these same points. Not just people skipping some posts. We all do that.

Person A: "OMG a 2080 costs 900, there's no way you'll get that performance in a console!!!"

Person B: "Actually, [numbers]"

Person A: "Whatever, consoles will be 8TF because that's what a 5700 is. You can't change my mind."

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I understand that.
That's what happens when people don't want to listen to others, which is fine (and annoying so I get it). I'm just saying calling out Albert wasn't necessary cuz he was just answering a question (I know you meant no disrespect as you stated). It may have been discussed but I just don't think it was necessary to say it to Albert, he was just being friendly...it does seem that you are irritated by people not listening which I totally get because some people have more knowledge than others in certain areas. My opinion though. It's all good.

 

[Expy]

Yes.
But the mockup was made by Turrot.
It's not 1:1 specifications.
That's probably M.2 NVMe Slot.

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Possibly. Won't know until we get full details.
Would be kind of weird to have a custom SSD solution when you're allowing retail parts to be plugged in.
Only solution to that is having a custom SSD controller + additional hardware to expand on the capabilities of these devices, but then you'd need to have a general "minimum spec" for the expansion.

 

[Fabtacular]

Truth is the last page has been people saying the same thing .
In fact it gets repeat every few months .
People looking at the price of PC parts and saying consoles going to cost this or that make no sense if you just think about it for a short while.

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I think I was referring more to the specific claim about how the contents of a chip are largely irrelevant in a company's evaluation of its BOM for a console, rather than the idea that third-party BOM estimates are largely inaccurate or the idea that the size of a chip impacts yields.

I'm not sure we've had anyone banging that drum before, at least over the last 2-3 of these threads.

 

[d3ckard]

The only thing that strikes me as different from previous Xbox launches is the way they are dolling out small bits of information over a period of time, and starting much earlier. It's different and would not have been the expected way of doing it, but it seems to be working really well. So that's been an interesting takeaway for me vs. doing a huge unveil event and be able to go deeper on questions.

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On that subject - it seems more natural to slowly doze information and build tension, similarly as movies and games have been promoted for a while now. Yet up to recently, it seems that big unveils were strongly preferred. What were the reasons that made them that attractive to companies? Was it about secrecy?

 

[Astandahl]

Lots went wrong with that launch, but I like to take the long view and remember OG Xbox and Xbox 360 which went pretty well, as did Scorpio. So X1 is still the anomaly for Xbox console launch failures.

It would be like saying Sony botches launches just because of the PS3. Sure, one bad one but it largely recovered, and still had 3 huge successes.

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Albert i don't like Xbox that much right now but i have to say the OG Xbox was phenomenal. I still play with it during the summer with some of my friends. Such a great piece of hardware with lot of unique experiences only available there.

 

[Fredrik]

On that subject - it seems more natural to slowly doze information and build tension, similarly as movies and games have been promoted for a while now. Yet up to recently, it seems that big unveils were strongly preferred. What were the reasons that made them that attractive to companies? Was it about secrecy?

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I would guess that they just like to control the message. Rumours flying in the wrong way can be really damaging. Especially when you're trying to compete with an industry giant like Sony that can just post a logo and people will go crazy.

 

[Albert Penello]

Albert Penello I'm really curious about one thing and if possible would like you to share your experience with us. Did the xbox team had any idea of what the PS4 specs were before it was announced on that february press conference? I'm sure you guys must "hear things" from industry partners and such, or am I wrong?

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That was a long time ago, so pulling from memory.

Nothing official in terms of knowing what they were doing of course but I do remember that we knew they were going to have more TFLOPS, and they were using GDDR5 vs DDR3.

However (and I've posted this before so it's well known) we were planning to have more system memory, and there was a debate about ESRAM (and the success that EDRAM saw on 360) and how much real-world difference there would be.

I think the only surprise was them going to 8gb.

 

[Yearsoflurking]

Lots went wrong with that launch, but I like to take the long view and remember OG Xbox and Xbox 360 which went pretty well, as did Scorpio. So X1 is still the anomaly for Xbox console launch failures.

It would be like saying Sony botches launches just because of the PS3. Sure, one bad one but it largely recovered, and still had 3 huge successes.

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I hope someone writes a book on the xbox one launch someday would be an interesting read. Too many cooks in the kitchen type ordeal

 

[MonsterMech]

It's also a line used by people who play games on PC, which is important because not everything is a tactic in the unending console war. In fact, for most sane people, precisely none of their statements or behaviors are driven by that meaningless crusade. Instead, it's likely that Mike is simply expressing himself. He almost certainly has friends and former co-workers that he wishes well at Microsoft. Chances are he also has independent opinions about decisions and whether he agrees or disagrees with them that he is now much more free to express. Most obviously of all, he seems to genuinely enjoy games regardless of their corporate affiliation, and intends to own hardware on which to play them. Some games that people happen to enjoy are only playable on PlayStation hardware. It's really not that complicated or insidious.

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People who play games on PC usually aren't talking about what console they may or may not play.

And again as I said above, the majority of "PlayStation exclusives" make their way to PC as well.

So the "ill just play it on PC" line works for PlayStation as well.

Doesn't make sense to say that when comparing the consoles especially considering we are a year away and have absolutely no idea what games will be on either system. Answering that question now with the answer he gave, screams console war imo.

 

[anexanhume]

I disagree, but that's just me.

You are paying for surface area. If the chip is the same size as chips in existing boxes, then it doesn't matter what's inside the chip. And the size determines many other factors (case, cooling, etc).

And we still don't know how much memory is on these machines, or the size of the SSD. If these have 12-16GB of GDDR6 and 1tb SSD or less, then you have a very manageable launch BOM with a roadmap to get to $0 loss.

IMO too much analysis is done on what PC parts costs. My speculation that Sony would be 8-9TFLOPS was derived from hitting a $399 price.

But that's just my experience. Lots of things could have changed.

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I'm curious about this because you've been saying less than 10TF all along. Were you saying for PS5 only? I had assumed you were talking about both.

I was surprised at the time and still am that you didn't predict higher for XSX given from the outside perspective of how One X changed the narrative and seemed to be reflective of the way Phil wanted to take the brand.

 

[jroc74]

I understand that.
That's what happens when people don't want to listen to others, which is fine (and annoying so I get it). I'm just saying calling out Albert wasn't necessary cuz he was just answering a question (I know you meant no disrespect as you stated). It may have been discussed but I just don't think it was necessary to say it to Albert, he was just being friendly...it does seem that you are irritated by people not listening which I totally get because some people have more knowledge than others in certain areas. My opinion though. It's all good.

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I don't think Albert was being called out, in a negative way at least.

That read to me more like an observation.

 

[sleepr]

That was a long time ago, so pulling from memory.

Nothing official in terms of knowing what they were doing of course but I do remember that we knew they were going to have more TFLOPS, and they were using GDDR5 vs DDR3.

However (and I've posted this before so it's well known) we were planning to have more system memory, and there was a debate about ESRAM (and the success that EDRAM saw on 360) and how much real-world difference there would be.

I think the only surprise was them going to 8gb.

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Thank you!

 

[zedox]

I don't think Albert was being called out, in a negative way at least.

That read to me more like an observation.

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It's no biggie... as I said to anexanhume ..it's all good. :)

 

[Dave.]

Not my part of the world, but don't the standard IEC current limits get lifted in the US?

Edit

LTTP. Apparently it does, according to the posts above.

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Apparently so. Can see from here https://www.diynot.com/pages/el/el003.php that 1mm sq flex can handle 10A, and I guess that (or more likely, greater than that) is standard for US figure 8 cords. Whereas it's common to find them with 5A fused plugs in UK, and obv things are not run right up close to their fuse limits in normal operation (but also 240V means much less Amperage too).

We can infer very little from the choice of power connector on an Xbox.

 

[gothmog]

I hope someone writes a book on the xbox one launch someday would be an interesting read. Too many cooks in the kitchen type ordeal

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I would love to read about that as well.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

People who play games on PC usually aren't talking about what console they may or may not play.

And again as I said above, the majority of "PlayStation exclusives" make their way to PC as well.

So the "ill just play it on PC" line works for PlayStation as well.

Doesn't make sense to say that when comparing the consoles especially considering we are a year away and have absolutely no idea what games will be on either system. Answering that question now with the answer he gave, screams console war imo.

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This is far from the true so i don't know why you saying it .
None of Sony best selling IP are on PC .

 

[Yearsoflurking]

I'm curious about this because you've been saying less than 10TF all along. Were you saying for PS5 only? I had assumed you were talking about both.

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He's under NDA he's not going to talk about the xbox series x come on man lol. Albert's talking from a product management perspective on what a 399 console ( which sony likes) would cost. I'm sure he and the team extensively researched this from an economical forecast perspective on how much the die space production node viability and heat thermal solutions would cost in order to get to that sweet spot 399 without either a loss or smaller loss. They concluded in their research that 8-9 tf would be it from a heat perspective without having a more expensive thermal solution.

 

[Possum]

Those perforations could be Intake/exhaust for the PSU?

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Yes, they probably are. I'm totally convinced the power supply will be internal.