PS5 and Xbox Series speculation launch thread |OT9| - For flops sake!

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AegonSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,982
I think 175w - 200w TDP for PS5. That's vapor chamber territory.
175-200w tdp is 48-56 cus. according to the chart i posted above.

again, if they are investing in a better cooling system they wont just use it to cool a smaller chip. if they are going with a smaller chip, its to reduce costs. no point cheapening out on the chip only to spend twice that on a cooling solution.
 

III-V

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,945
? My post was arguing against 40CUs/high clocks! 56 CUs at 1.7/1.8GHz seems the better idea from what I've been reading here the past few weeks.
Yea , it certainly seems like a no-brainer in hindsight, the only issue is that we have not found this hidden APU. I can imagine 40 CU @2 GHz since it’s been that way for a long time. For me, efficiency gains from N7P, which are 10% at eff for same clocks. 7% is perf gains at same power over 7NP.
 

Doctor Avatar

Member
Jan 10, 2019
932
The Reddit leak from Jan that had all the correct specs for Scarlett had $250 for Lockhart, $399 for PS5, $499 for Scarlett.

MS certainly was thinking of prices like that in late 2018.

Albert Penello thinks the Ps4 would be $399, and he knows what price target MS has in mind for Xsx.
$250 lockhart?

Some of these predictions are definitely getting more farfetched than Oberon not being the final PS5 APU design.

2.1Ghz 40/40CU PS5 and $250 Lockhart are two things I can guarantee are never happening.
 

AegonSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,982
A $99 console can be worth the price you pay for the hardware. 😂

I agree I think PS5 will be $499 based on RuthenicCookies leak.
so do i. he also said $100 loss at launch.

so the bom is somewhere around $600. $550 if we include the retailer cut.

ps4 bom is $380. $30 extra for apu fab costs in 2020, cooling, ssd and ram gets us to $500. you still have $50 more to play with. thats more than enough for a bigger apu.
 

BitsandBytes

Member
Dec 16, 2017
3,629
Yea , it certainly seems like a no-brainer in hindsight, the only issue is that we have not found this hidden APU. I can imagine 40 CU @2 GHz since it’s been that way for a long time. For me, efficiency gains from N7P, which are 10% at eff for same clocks. 7% is perf gains at same power over 7NP.
Not long to wait now to find out what surprises Sony/cerny come up with. I just hope they invest in the cooling/acoustic system as much as the spec.
 
Dec 27, 2019
616
i thought it was 8TF?

edit: yep

" Incidentally, he mentioned that his personal estimate is that rendering at native 4K across the board would require a minimum of 8 teraFLOPS of computing power, and that’s not something that can be achieved at a reasonable price this year. "

source: https://www.dualshockers.com/mark-cerny-ps4-pro-compatibility-require-1-additional-work-developers/
So 8 TF’s for just 4K graphics. And what about ray tracing and VRS?
 
Oct 25, 2017
14,913
I didn't say Github contradicted itself, I said there's a lot of contradictory info floating around (consoles equal in power or PS5 slightly stronger etc). There are multiple possibilities for the Github info being misleading however, such as the CU count not being limited to 36/40 or Ariel/Oberon not being the final PS5 GPU. I don't doubt the Github info, just some of the conclusions drawn from it. But like I said, I'm just gonna wait for the official reveal at this point.
Right, it just seems so obvious to me.

You don't have to come up with scenarios that make sense of what you think. The information it is being based on is without context of any sort. That inherently makes the conclusions flawed.
 

Tonky

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Aug 26, 2019
6,339
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"Floating above water"

pH level of water is 6.5 to 8.5

Series X = "above" water, so > 8.5TF

PS5 = "walking" on water, so 8.5TF max

This is all starting to make sense if you use your brain
 

Expy

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Oct 26, 2017
5,569
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"Floating above water"

pH level of water is 6.5 to 8.5

Series X = "above" water, so > 8.5TF

PS5 = "walking" on water, so 8.5TF max

This is all starting to make sense if you use your brain
If you used your brain, you'd know that the Ph level doesn't really matter. It's the density.
 

gundamkyoukai

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,740
The PS5 being 2Ghz at 36CU just seem to make no sense.
Right now the RTX 5700 has more power at 40CU with less heat .
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,648
There's been a lot of back and forth regarding rumors, so here's a rough timeline from memory. Feel free to correct me if I get the order wrong.

2018:
  • At some point, it begins to be rumored that PS5, originally slated for 2019, will hit 2020. Backwards compatibility is cited as one potential cause.
  • Late 2018 - it's rumored that Navi had some design issues and needed a design spin. Supposedly what comes to be known as Navi 10 is not actually the first chip design.
2019:
  • Early 2019 - AMD gets Navi design spin back and validates it for release in summer.
  • First rumors of PS5 devkits appear. Most claim some sort of APU.
  • Wired article appears, with timing suspected because dev kits have started to filter out. It confirms BC with PS4.
  • Mid 2019 - Navi 10 finally launches, and the configuration matches the GPUs seen in PS5 dev kit configurations.
  • Further Wired article confirms that PS5 RT is indeed hardware based, echoing what forum insiders had already said. Others have claimed VRS is also included. To date, no driver or repo leak has indicated either feature in any PS5 GPU configuration. Most importantly, the GPU hardware wouldn't need RT or VRS hardware to do the BC testing Sony is asking for, nor would it need more than 36 CUs.
  • Late 2019 - Navi 12/14 leaks reveal smaller and different memory configured parts. Likelihood these preceded the "real" Navi 10 design diminish.
  • Sony reveals that while aiming for total BC compatibility, they may not reach that goal. This perhaps suggests there is some credence to BC being an issue with the console's development.
  • Navi 21 also shows up as the first Navi iteration with RT and VRS hardware.
  • Examination of github repos reveals Ariel/Oberon BC testing and the existence of Arden with RT/VRS and 56 CUs, suggesting a later RDNA version.

As it stands now, the ambiguity of the extensiveness of this testing, and the confirmation of VRS/RT in Arden despite it containing less info about that hardware overall are the things causing the most confusion and debate about the PS5's final GPU configuration and whether we have seen it yet.

I'll also point out that Sony's SN Systems work on scheduler models and machine code analyzers (MCA) shows they're trying to have some capability of BC testing without needing physical hardware to find what edge cases may break BC. AMD added Zen 2 scheduler modeling in August of last year.

Ariel and Oberon as conceived need not be completely custom hardware, either. It's possible they could use off-the-shelf Zen 2 and Navi 10 die with only a custom IO die with some glue logic built on GloFo's robust 12nm process. This gives them more reflective hardware to play with well ahead of launch and when they'd normally have test silicon to exercise.

Personally, I think there is value in a non-final version of the APU for developers to have access to and for Sony to iron out their BC solution if they think it is key to quick platform adoption. Indeed, early feedback from developers and Sony's own words indicate the PS5 is extremely developer friendly.

A key question will be whether or not the APU got a design spin to incorporate RT or VRS as a result of Navi's initial delay or Sony's protracted timeline to get BC working. We may never know the answer to that. Knowing they couldn't launch in 2019 meant a whole extra year of development time, and some of AMD's planned RDNA 2.0 features may have become possible then. Having earlier Navi versions to use would have been risk reduction even if the inclusion of said features presented a challenging timeline for a 2020 launch. There's also a bit of keeping up with the Joneses here. They had to know that if they were launching in 2020, Microsoft would have those features. Not having RT when your competitor does would have been quite the marketing challenge.

Of course, none of this is reflective and what total number of CUs or clock speeds even further revision might have. However, the target 2.0GHz clock frequency of the dev kit indicates they had some intent for it beyond simple BC testing. It's not realistic to expect a higher clock than that, so it's difficult to discern whether that 9.2TF is what they expected out of final hardware, or it was simply the best they could do with released silicon at the time.
 
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Doctor Avatar

Member
Jan 10, 2019
932
Lockhart will be between $249 and $299.
Half the price of the Xbox One X for a console that has equal GPU but massively better RAM and CPU with a 1TB NVMe SSD thrown in too?

Lockhart cancelled again!
Lockhart isn't cancelled. But people are really going crazy with how much savings you're gonna get out of 4GB less RAM and less GPU on your APU. It certainly isn't going to cut your console price in half which is what would be required for a $250 Lockhart when XSX is selling for $500.

Unless people think we're getting a 12TF XSX for $400 now too, in which case Sony are DEFINITELY screwed.
 

Manmademan

Member
Aug 6, 2018
6,711
You think 399 is too much?

Some people only care about price and not about graphics. It's madness, insanity, Sparta, etc. to us but we are all hardcore AF in this thread.
Cerny seemed to be pretty clear in the wired interview that it would be more expensive than the PS4.



"There has always been a general range of pricing, will the PS5 be in line with that?"

"We will be able to release it at an SRP that will be appealing to gamers in light of its advanced feature set."

"Meaning, that it may cost more [RELATIVE TO HOW MUCH CONSOLES TRADITIONALLY LAUNCH AT] but what you're getting is well worth it?"

"That's about all I can say about it."

The system isn't $399. Cerny pretty much spells it out here.
 

III-V

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,945
When Cerny said that the PS5 would be worth the price you pay for the hardware, it means that it most likely won't be $399.
Yeah, I am expecting a premium console.
Not long to wait now to find out what surprises Sony/cerny come up with. I just hope they invest in the cooling/acoustic system as much as the spec.
Doubtful that they do. I think a lot of the issues with the pro being loud were assembly & parts related. I have a launch pro and don’t ever notice the sound, aside from when the HDD is spinning, which can be loud. The 1X is just as quiet and likely even quieter.
 

bsigg

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,344
Half the price of the Xbox One X for a console that has equal GPU but massively better RAM and CPU with a 1TB NVMe SSD thrown in too?
Microsoft would have never considered it if they couldn't get it to a price that would make it viable. That range is $249-$299. I fully expect them to replace the current S and X with Lockhart at $299 and the Series X at $499.
 

gundamkyoukai

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,740
Personally, I think there is value in a non-final version of the APU for developers to have access to and for Sony to iron out their BC solution if they think it is key to quick platform adoption. Indeed, early feedback from developers and Sony's own words indicate the PS5 is extremely developer friendly.
From what they saying it's even easier than PS4 and that was suppose to be very easy .
So the early devs kits out look to be like a good move.
 

Stripper13

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,355
Half the price of the Xbox One X for a console that has equal GPU but massively better RAM and CPU with a 1TB NVMe SSD thrown in too?



Lockhart isn't cancelled. But people are really going crazy with how much savings you're gonna get out of 4GB less RAM and less GPU on your APU. It certainly isn't going to cut your console price in half which is what would be required for a $250 Lockhart when XSX is selling for $500.

Unless people think we're getting a 12TF XSX for $400 now too, in which case Sony are DEFINITELY screwed.
It goes without saying, but pricing is critical for a product like Lockhart. Like you said, expecting something more advanced for substantially less is probably unrealistic.
This makes me think that MS is either:
- Going to price it just under PS5/XSX. E.g $399 against $499.
- Going to look at a new pricing model entirely. E.g. Subscription model tied to the hardware.
 

Hawk269

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,106
So 8 TF’s for just 4K graphics. And what about ray tracing and VRS?
That is the real question now isn't it? Ray Tracing and how AMD's implementation of it is handled. I recently build a new gaming Rig...it has been up and running for less than a week now and Ray Tracing demands a lot of power to maintain 60fps at 4k. If you look at reviews of Metro Exodus on PC with Ray Tracing, some of the best hardware around can't maintain 60fps at 4k...actually not even close.

The rig I built has the CPU higher than some of those reviews CPU's and my GPU is clocked a bit higher as well and while I was able to get a little bit better results with Metro Exodus w/Ray Tracing at Ultra @4k, I was averaging around 45fps or so depending on the scene. RT is just very demanding, but very beautiful. Turning down RT from Ultra to High I pick up around 8-10 frames on average, but still get some dips below 50fps.

The reason I bring this up is that many have these incredible thoughts of 4k/60fps/Ray Tracing to the God's looking graphics that honestly I don't think will happen with these consoles. It takes a ton of hardware to drive existing RT at 4k and $500-$600 consoles are not going to drive to those expectations that many have. We will see some incredible things with these consoles and 4k/30fps/RT I think is something that may be possible. Just learning what I am learning with my new PC is that RT is expensive at the CPU/GPU levels to run and those expecting 60fps @4k w/RT need to adjust expectations.
 

melodiousmowl

Member
Jan 14, 2018
2,476
CT
"Floating above water"

pH level of water is 6.5 to 8.5

Series X = "above" water, so > 8.5TF

PS5 = "walking" on water, so 8.5TF max

This is all starting to make sense if you use your brain

"You-you know. Candy bars. They usually come in a wrapper. Just like you... wrap a Christmas present. Christmas happens when it's cold. Cold, as in Alaska - that's... with polar bears. Polar bears... pola... polarity! I can switch the polarity to see what transmissions are coming from the location this one is being sent to! "

"B*** **x requires a lot of lubrication, right? Lubrication. Lubruh... Chupuh... Chupacabra's the, the goat killer of Mexican folklore. Folklore is stories from the past that are often fictionalized. Fictionalized to heighten drama. Drama students! Students at colleges usually have bicycles! Bi, bian, binary. It's binary code! "

Jeff, South Park - Cancelled
 

Manmademan

Member
Aug 6, 2018
6,711
Microsoft would have never considered it if they couldn't get it to a price that would make it viable. That range is $249-$299. I fully expect them to replace the current S and X with Lockhart at $299 and the Series X at $499.
That price isn't viable at all if the PS5 is expected to come in at $399 (which I doubt it is).

It's only marginally cheaper but the PS5 is substantially more capable and Sony is the market leader in all territories. Microsoft would be sending it to die.
 

bsigg

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,344
That price isn't viable at all if the PS5 is expected to come in at $399 (which I doubt it is).

It's only marginally cheaper but the PS5 is substantially more capable and Sony is the market leader in all territories. Microsoft would be sending it to die.
That's like saying Apple sent the iPhone XR to die, when it reality it outsold the XS.
 

amstradcpc

Member
Oct 27, 2017
343
i did the math earlier. if we assume 10% efficiency gains, and 1.7 ghz being the sweet spot for 5700xt in 2019, then they are already at 1.87 ghz (gonzalo clocks). add 7% for n7p improvements for launch and we can hit oberon 2.0 ghz clocks and even go higher to 2.1 ghz and still stay in the sweet spot for a 100-110w 36 cu gpu or a 150-160 w console.



the real question here is why would sony target ps4 and pro tdp numbers when they have a $499 budget this time around. would they really go ahead and make another $381 bom console?
1,7 Ghz is the turbo speed reached in 3dmark. The base clock is 1,4. My theory still remains, twin gpus at 1,4 Ghz.
 

III-V

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,945
There's been a lot of back and forth regarding rumors, so here's a rough timeline from memory. Feel free to correct me if I get the order wrong.

2018:
  • At some point, it begins to be rumored that PS5, originally slated for 2019, will hit 2020. Backwards compatibility is cited as one potential cause.
  • Late 2018 - it's rumored that Navi had some design issues and needed a design spin. Supposedly what comes to be known as Navi 10 is not actually the first chip design.
2019:
  • Early 2019 - AMD gets Navi design spin back and validates it for release in summer.
  • First rumors of PS5 devkits appear. Most claim some sort of APU.
  • Wired article appears, with timing suspected because dev kits have started to filter out. It confirms BC with PS4.
  • Mid 2019 - Navi 10 finally launches, and the configuration matches the GPUs seen in PS5 dev kit configurations.
  • Further Wired article confirms that PS5 RT is indeed hardware based, echoing what forum insiders had already said. Others have claimed VRS is also included. To date, no driver or repo leak has indicated either feature in any PS5 GPU configuration.
  • Late 2019 - Navi 12/14 leaks reveal smaller and different memory configured parts. Likelihood these preceded the "real" Navi 10 design diminish.
  • Sony reveals that while aiming for total BC compatibility, they may not reach that goal. This perhaps suggests there is some credence to BC being an issue with the console's development.
  • Navi 21 also shows up as the first Navi iteration with RT and VRS hardware.
  • Examination of github repos reveals Ariel/Oberon BC testing and the existence of Arden with RT/VRS and 56 CUs, suggesting a later RDNA version.
As it stands now, the ambiguity of the extensiveness of this testing, and the confirmation of VRS/RT in Arden despite it containing less info about that hardware overall are the things causing the most confusion and debate about the PS5's final GPU configuration and whether we have seen it yet.

Personally, I think there is value in a non-final version of the APU for developers to have access to and for Sony to iron out their BC solution if they think it is key to quick platform adoption. Indeed, early feedback from developers and Sony's own words indicate the PS5 is extremely developer friendly.
Excellent contextual summary with some salient points! Bookmarked.
XSX isn’t a penny less than $499.
 

YoungGunsII

Member
Apr 23, 2019
75
Denmark
Two facts I think many people don't understand but should:

* No next-gen console is going to aim for 299, period. Even less so this year with SSD and RAM costs driving price up. #in_before_wiiu #wiiuisnotng

* PS5 is not going to launch at 399. The beast is super expensive and likely will cost Sony more than 500 to make. Everything points to 499
Your personal beliefs and rationalities doesn't become facts by you just calling them such.
In a world where PS5 is 2-4 TS's below XSX, I (and a lot of other people going by this thread) would definitely see $399 as a realistic price for PS5.

So forgive me if I don't understand your "facts".
 

Eeyore

Member
Dec 13, 2019
1,261
Tom Warren doesn't have to pretend to be neutral. He is a Windows / MS focused editor.
Personally I always applaud the people in the journalism field who seek the truth and present it as such. While nothing you say is false, it still strikes me as weird to have someone be a cheerleader. It doesn't appeal to me anyway.

Era isn't one or two people though.
Sadly that's the basis of most strawman arguments.
 

Malkier

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,013
That is the real question now isn't it? Ray Tracing and how AMD's implementation of it is handled. I recently build a new gaming Rig...it has been up and running for less than a week now and Ray Tracing demands a lot of power to maintain 60fps at 4k. If you look at reviews of Metro Exodus on PC with Ray Tracing, some of the best hardware around can't maintain 60fps at 4k...actually not even close.

The rig I built has the CPU higher than some of those reviews CPU's and my GPU is clocked a bit higher as well and while I was able to get a little bit better results with Metro Exodus w/Ray Tracing at Ultra @4k, I was averaging around 45fps or so depending on the scene. RT is just very demanding, but very beautiful. Turning down RT from Ultra to High I pick up around 8-10 frames on average, but still get some dips below 50fps.

The reason I bring this up is that many have these incredible thoughts of 4k/60fps/Ray Tracing to the God's looking graphics that honestly I don't think will happen with these consoles. It takes a ton of hardware to drive existing RT at 4k and $500-$600 consoles are not going to drive to those expectations that many have. We will see some incredible things with these consoles and 4k/30fps/RT I think is something that may be possible. Just learning what I am learning with my new PC is that RT is expensive at the CPU/GPU levels to run and those expecting 60fps @4k w/RT need to adjust expectations.
I'm honestly expecting checker board+ Ray tracing at 30fps. Depending on the gains rt has with CB anyway. Seems like there could be a trade off in that area for better visuals. As always 60fps will take a back seat.
 

Doctor Avatar

Member
Jan 10, 2019
932
Personally, I think there is value in a non-final version of the APU for developers to have access to and for Sony to iron out their BC solution if they think it is key to quick platform adoption. Indeed, early feedback from developers and Sony's own words indicate the PS5 is extremely developer friendly.
Full PS4 backwards compatibility is absolutely vital to Sony for this generation. They had a huge win with this gen, and this was also the generation where digital libraries really took off.

They want to keep existing PS4 users locked into the ecosystem and back compat is absolutely essential for this.

Sony may realise that winning this generation sets them up to dominate the next ONLY if they can carry those users forward and the best way to do that is to tell them that when the buy a PS5 they can simply keep playing all the games they already own on PSN, or even many of the great exclusives they never got to play at all.

It's also a way to lure away Xbox users - buy a PS5 and you can play all the Sony exclusives you have been unable to this generation.

The value to getting that right day one is immeasurable to Sony both for retaining users and having a library that would be alluring to new ones. May well be the case that Oberon really is simply to allow them to hone and test BC. A few 100 million would be well worth locking in those PS4 users. Of course such early primitive APU chips would also allow Sony's studios and to a lesser extent third party studios to come out guns blazing from day one also. Again, useful.

If Sony can come out with flawless BC and also amazing first party games (HZD2, next gen GT etc) day one with PS5 because of Oberon it would be money well spent.
 
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