Yes, however this is a VC's take on the games industry as a whole - it's a *really* good read (IMO) - the writer makes some points about the transitions that are happening now (Game Pass, Subs models etc) and how that will continue into next-gen
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PS5 and Xbox Series speculation launch thread |OT9| - For flops sake!
- Thread starter Mecha Meister
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My current mindset.
Microsoft felt they had the strongest box so they have announced early to allow the longest time for the message to spread, engaging the most possible potential customers. They can drop feed info throughout the year.
If sony dont talk specs in first half 2020 they have the weaker box and are trying to control the spread of this info to avoid the negative spreading to a larger audience. Ultimately causing doubt over ms plan and not letting it be clearly inked they have the weaker box. They will let the system talk with game demos closer to launch.
That's my current thought process lol.
Microsoft felt they had the strongest box so they have announced early to allow the longest time for the message to spread, engaging the most possible potential customers. They can drop feed info throughout the year.
If sony dont talk specs in first half 2020 they have the weaker box and are trying to control the spread of this info to avoid the negative spreading to a larger audience. Ultimately causing doubt over ms plan and not letting it be clearly inked they have the weaker box. They will let the system talk with game demos closer to launch.
That's my current thought process lol.
While gaming may gross more then the movie business I doubt it is bigger then "TV" as a whole, when you consider news networks, streaming services, YouTube etc
My hot-take is that Microsoft has a strategy that is divergent from the traditional "console generations" strategy that Sony has. They have mentioned previously that they are thinking in terms of generation-less, they are now promoting cross-gen titles for their latest hardware etc.
I feel that they have decided that it makes more sense to not compete with Sony head-to-head and instead change the rules of the game.
If Microsoft can make enough strides towards this more PC-centric forward-scaling + back-compatibility model alongside subs/streaming, then they will have a different playing field - one which is more familiar to them and one in which they hold several advantages over the traditional generational mindset of Sony.
I think it's genius from a business perspective and in many ways it's more pro-consumer as new experiences will be available to more consumers on a variety of hardware.
I personally think that Sony have this one chance to adapt (from the success of the PS4) and to take on-board the shifting eco-system (that Microsoft are driving) or they'll basically be irrelevant in 6 years time.
I think Sony know that they could be on the cusp of their last hurrah so the messaging and service offering has to be perfect. Any mis-step and their slide into irrelevance will be all but confirmed.
~*And I'm a huge PlayStation and PlayStation IP fan*~
I think there's enough hints from various industry folks that streaming will take off (and I see it happening faster than people think it will) and as such the dominance of local hardware will wane - which would be an existential threat to PlayStation, but wouldn't bother Microsoft who already have a different mental model of how to operate in a stream/cloud-centric world.
Will be interesting to see if the generations model will survive next go around.
I feel that they have decided that it makes more sense to not compete with Sony head-to-head and instead change the rules of the game.
If Microsoft can make enough strides towards this more PC-centric forward-scaling + back-compatibility model alongside subs/streaming, then they will have a different playing field - one which is more familiar to them and one in which they hold several advantages over the traditional generational mindset of Sony.
I think it's genius from a business perspective and in many ways it's more pro-consumer as new experiences will be available to more consumers on a variety of hardware.
I personally think that Sony have this one chance to adapt (from the success of the PS4) and to take on-board the shifting eco-system (that Microsoft are driving) or they'll basically be irrelevant in 6 years time.
I think Sony know that they could be on the cusp of their last hurrah so the messaging and service offering has to be perfect. Any mis-step and their slide into irrelevance will be all but confirmed.
~*And I'm a huge PlayStation and PlayStation IP fan*~
I think there's enough hints from various industry folks that streaming will take off (and I see it happening faster than people think it will) and as such the dominance of local hardware will wane - which would be an existential threat to PlayStation, but wouldn't bother Microsoft who already have a different mental model of how to operate in a stream/cloud-centric world.
Will be interesting to see if the generations model will survive next go around.
I think that is the wrong approach to take, MS pussyfooting around the weaker hardware of the OG X1 made things worse. Not addressing this issue head on just makes gamers anticipate the info more, and this putting more attention on it.
Whichever is the weaker should tackle head on, talk about how it's still 10x current gen, ssd benefits etc and talk about value and then get straight on to games.
From a business perspective a cheaper weaker machine is going to be an easier sell then a more expensive machine.
is that why they are very careful and keep saying strongest "Xbox" compared to 1x where they said strongest console ever made?also keep in mind the MS had ads saying "preorder the most console ever , Xbox 1"
anyways Sony will reveal the spec after the ps meeting so there will be no more room for speculation.
We have had too many people telling us that they r so close so I feel power wouldn't matter and they both would need to talk about other things to attract new buyers. That's my thought process 😃
Yeah good points! So hyped for this year.
They cant say they are the most powerful until Sony officially announce their specs though. So fingers crossed sony do go live in feb. I'm so excited to see these consoles.
I hope ms talking about a silent console will push sony to talk about their noise levels, or push reporters to ask.
Well, technically there will unless Microsoft also officially unveils their specs too before then.
Well you are indeed entitled to your opinion, but PlayStation becoming irrelevant in 6 years?? That would require no less than a half dozen separate fuckups of epic proportions on Sony's part and also require them to release constant failure after failure to bring them down to those levels. Jim Ryan might also have to eat a live puppy on stage just for good measure.
IMO the strategy of both companies won't be hugely different in 6 years. Both will have full blown streaming services available on every possible device. Both will be releasing buttloads of games on their consoles. Both will be releasing titles on PC, but Microsoft moreso. MS will continue offering their first party content on Game Pass assuming that strategy works out long term and Sony will have more content available on PS Now to bolster its offerings. Whether Sony might put all their first party content on PS Now day 1 is impossible to say right now, I think they'd need to see a solid 40-50 million consistent users on that service to consider it but who knows.
Overall though I don't think their strategies will vary by a huge margin when all is said and done. The biggest factor, as always, will be the games.
No I meant on Sony part there will be no more speculation.
And for MS side, even we have some Data sheet from windows central and game spot where Phil retweeted it meaning that they r correct .
Well for x1x they said most powerful console made before Sony even reveals the pro. So there is that. But we shall wait and see what happens after the feb meeting
Only thing I remember Phil retweeting was the DF video but they weren't confirming 12tf, just discussing the rumours.
Didn't he retweet the GameSpot article? Which had 12 tf in it ?
edit: I just checked the gamespot article and it seems they have removed the 12 tf reference . Now the cpu reference is only there , does anyone else remember the 12 tf being there?
Am I just missing it ?
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this is quite the take. Here's an alternative: Microsoft seemingly never had the momentum that Sony had this generation. There's a feeling that even though their putting everything on PC, and even though they have the most affordable box, and the most powerful box, and Gamepass, its next gen when the momentum will actually shift, some sort of new beginning.
however, microsoft is seemingly hedging bets against the next generation, they are hedging it with Lockhart, they are hedging it with cross gen. They are deliberately making their next console non-essential. PlayStation is seemingly all I on PS5 and making it the enthusiast platform to that Will enable developers to craft next gen experiences, that will excite the enthusiasts and justify New spending. One view is they are leaving people behind, but another is they are leading everyone foreward. If Sony gives people enough reasons to invest in a new platform for the next decade, while MS does not, we might see a repeat of the cyclical momentum of PlayStation like we did this gen.
On cross-gen versions:
I might be misremembering but pretty sure in Jason Schreier's book the chapter on Dragon Age Inquisition mentions that being forced to develop for cross gen consoles contributed to development woes - and then the game barely sold on PS3 and 360 anyway. Shadow of Mordor's nemesis system couldn't be acheived on the last gen consoles but it was released for them anyway... Why bother?
I think in the last transition a lot of publishers were genuinely scared of the 'consoles are dying' narrative which wasn't helped by the WiiU flopping. It led to a really tentative launch in terms of software which wasn't necessary.
There was a strange 'PlayStation is doomed' thing then, too. We saw weird decisions like EA agreeing to put Titanfall on One/360 and not on PS4 and holding back that IP which could have become one of the biggest new ones of the gen.
I think these are missteps and to progress things in the industry we actually need harder generational transitions and for publishers to be bold about dropping last gen.
I might be misremembering but pretty sure in Jason Schreier's book the chapter on Dragon Age Inquisition mentions that being forced to develop for cross gen consoles contributed to development woes - and then the game barely sold on PS3 and 360 anyway. Shadow of Mordor's nemesis system couldn't be acheived on the last gen consoles but it was released for them anyway... Why bother?
I think in the last transition a lot of publishers were genuinely scared of the 'consoles are dying' narrative which wasn't helped by the WiiU flopping. It led to a really tentative launch in terms of software which wasn't necessary.
There was a strange 'PlayStation is doomed' thing then, too. We saw weird decisions like EA agreeing to put Titanfall on One/360 and not on PS4 and holding back that IP which could have become one of the biggest new ones of the gen.
I think these are missteps and to progress things in the industry we actually need harder generational transitions and for publishers to be bold about dropping last gen.
It's like a fighter training really hard before a fight and saying they are the best, they don't know they are but they can only comment on what they have done.
Theres no doubt ms has aimed and worked hard to try and be the most powerful console(this is evident from the case design and APU size) . So while I'm sure they are confident and proud of there new box, they are not 100% certain they will be the most powerful.
I guess they were more confident in the 1Xs hardware superiority.
Both of those examples are past the year or 2 period that Booty is talking about. Fall 2021 is the time frame exclusives will likely hit.
Far from it, I'm actually worried that something that I take for granted - great Sony first-party games - could be on the way out as a huge shift away from PlayStation's strengths would require big structural/organisational changes.
I am about as anti-Microsoft as you can get, think Halo is overrated trash that ruined FPS for all time (from the glory days of Quake/Unreal tournament), am not really interested in any of Microsoft's IP, lived & worked through the browser-wars and the halloween emails back in the days of FUD and the attacks on free-software movement and GPL
I just think that the opportunity is there for Microsoft to completely reset the landscape and to do it in a fashion that would harm their competition.
I disagree. I think that Xbox Series will be the last generation for Microsoft, after it I think their games will be available everywhere (on PC, on PlayStation, on Nintendo consoles, in streaming with xCloud). I also think that Sony will release a PlayStation 6 (and I'm not even sure it will be the last PlayStation).
Or.
Microsoft are about to make a huge mistake and have completely misread the market. PC Gamers aren't console gamers and console gamers aren't PC gamers.
Releasing two "next gen" consoles while supporting the last two (or three if you count the One S as a new console) means that developers are going to have to take into account far inferior specs when developing their next gen games.
Imagine how different games would look today if games had to run on 360 as well as Xbox One X.
I agree with this. I think Sony will try to push the industry forward on the traditional axis of new-hw == new exclusive software. I want to see what devs can cook up with access to a silly-fast SSD. I think Microsoft's approach will actually stifle innovation in that regard.
But I think Microsoft's approach will be a more sustainable business long-term, unless the costs of creating unique AAA experiences can be brought down again (and there are some signs that this may be the case if devs can avoid having to manually do lighting passes and let RT handle it and there is talk of PS5 being super-easy to develop for).
So I'm 50/50 on the positives and the negatives (as I see them)
That's the alternative for sure and what I was thinking until just today.
*First party only
*Only for a year most likely
*May impact like 2 whole games
You don't think money grubbers like EA and Ubisoft aren't going to take advantage of releasing a year or twos worth of games across two generations or more?
I'm going to say I have to disagree. This current generation was the worst possible generation for MS to shit the bed on. With the advent of digital services and ever expanding libraries, it will become extremely hard to pry people from their ecosystems. MS sensing themselves losing their grip to Sony and Nintendo is now leveraging GamePass on different platforms to make up that gap. You say that Sony has one shot to adapt to the current landscape or fade away, but Sony has the upper hand in that they have both the games and platform that a majority of people are on today as well as their own digital streaming platform in PS Now.
Now, obviously PS Now needs some work, but the fact that they already have in place the infrastructure to be able to adapt rapidly, the onus is now on MS to show they can thrive on bread alone so to speak. We know streaming services don't make money. So now MS is going to leverage the future on GamePass and Lockhart whole selling XSX at a premium price? I just don't see how that is sustainable in the long run and I'd be more willing to say it's MS who has to adapt. This two pronged attack is a double edged sword and can either be a boon or a curse.
What always felt off to me about MS not caring whether you play on a XSX, or XB1, or a PC, or via the cloud is that it's practically opening the door for the customer to choose to spend their money on the PS5 because they still have options to play their Xbox games.
If you own an Xbox now, great you get all the first party games for a while so take that money you would have spent on a XSX and buy the PS5 to play all their games.
If you have a PC or PS4 then great, just spend 10 bucks whenever there's a game you wanna play on Game Pass and you can dump your money into a PS5. (I fall into this category, I'll just sub for GP for a month if there's something I want to play)
Customers will have the money in their hands when they're staring at both next gen boxes and if they already have options to play all the exclusives from one platform then that makes the other platform the no brainer choice. I feel like locking customers into your box is just so much more meaningful because it means they've made an investment and will continue to pump money into your ecosystem to make that investment worthwhile via subscriptions, game purchases, accessories, micro transactions and any other possible ways a platform can milk their user base. Sony making an average of 1600 dollars off of year 1 PS4 owners tells us the power of making your box the desirable choice.
I'm curious to see how this will all play out.
Totally agree with this - the "sandwich" as has been described can cut both ways (not to mix metaphors...)
They were a year or less after launch of the new gen.
I don't think it will ever be a "huge" mistake, because Sony can only have so many exclusives in 2yrs, and ms will still have games.
I remember when people made a big fuss over the PS4's indies at the start of the gen, even though visually they looked like they could be on the PS3.
I remember the arguments some ppl were saying "why doesn't ps4 have more AAA games" and then people would counter with "just because you don't like indies does not mean other people don't"
I guess this is just a slightly different flavour of that, though I would rather have AAA cross gens then small indie games.
It'll be interesting to see if a 3rd party game will be available for xbox one s and x as well as xsx and also PS5. Obviously franchises like fifa and madden usually still support older platforms for a few years (albeit with less features) but what about other 3rd parties?
Every generation sees someone making market share and someone losing it. I always find it hard to believe that people think that there is absolutely nothing that one or two parties can do to better their standing in the coming generation.
It is also really myopic. Do people really think that the likes of Google and the rumored interest in gaming from the likes of Tencent etc is simply looking at the gaming market at the right here and the right now? We live in a connected world where a lot of entertainment is going to go to the cloud. Gaming is the last frontier. All these companies that have the capacity to set up cloud based solutions see that as a destination that they can generate a lot of revenue from in future.
The only people not seeing this are the ones that think that dedicated hardware is the end all be all.
Yup, anything is possible. Gotta get to that PS9 after all 😉
With Microsoft going forward/back compatible wonder how this will manifest at retail. Will we get native high asset XSEX games on disc and have to download 50 gig X1 versions, native X1 games and have to download high asset patches for XSEX, both versions on the same disc?
Hate huge downloads like gears 4-5 on pc!
Edit- How would this work if the XSEX can read 100gig blue rays and X1 can only read 50gig?
Hate huge downloads like gears 4-5 on pc!
Edit- How would this work if the XSEX can read 100gig blue rays and X1 can only read 50gig?
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You misunderstand. I'm not saying that Sony's strategy is the end all, be all. It obviously isn't if even Sony themselves are trying to leverage digital streaming and downloads with PS Now and will refine it this upcoming generation. What I'm saying is that Sony has the strengths of being able to go for a more traditional approach with digital entwined because they have the strength of their first party studios and worldwide support from customers.
MS doesn't have that luxury. Their first party offerings outside of Halo, Forza, Gears, etc. is middling, which caused them to go on a spending spree for talent. That talent won't bear fruit for several years. Outside of the US and UK, MS doesn't have support of the rest of the world. So now they put themselves into a position where they want to use Lockhart to bring in those who want to use GamePass on a "cheap" next gen system. At the same time, MS wants to support XSX knowing that these games will have to use Lockhart as the base. Like I'm trying to wrap my mind around how MS intends to pull it off because the more we hear about it, the worse it sounds. That's assuming Lockhart even releases of course.
If that's the case Microsoft would have already announced the spec figures in public.
That would be entirely seperate from MS though. Third parties could (and likely will) release on old and new platforms of their own volition. It's not like everyone suddenly upgrades to the newest consoles so why wouldn't they.
I disagree with that. I fully expect a generation of Xbox console(s) beyond Scarlett.
Phil Spencer said:
Phil Spencer said:
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There's no doubt in my mind Microsoft will have an equivalent Xbox to compete with PS6, around 2027.
Edit: whether it's 2027 plus or minus a year, the point is there will be another generation of Microsoft and Sony consoles in the second half of this decade.
I remember back in 2013-2014, many people believed that there would not be new consoles after PS4/Xbox One, and the same thing during 2015/2016 with PS4 Pro and X1X.
And well, here we are.
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There is a chance of more consoles than less from MS. "Series" Personally I thinking we're seeing new Xboxes every 2-3 years.
X1X high resloution asset not need to download to x1s or og x1, same with XsX
Because it makes dev more expensive/difficult and the return isn't necessarily there as seen with the move from last gen to this one. May only be worth it for something like Fifa.
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My goodness.
There are a lot of things that happen in business that tend to move the needle, and sometimes a lot of these can be unforeseen. The Nintendo Switch: it has sold at a far better rate than might have ever been envisioned simply because it offers something that none of the other consoles offers i.e. mobility. We are seeing more and more publishers pushing for cross platform gaming, and that is something that will make it far easier for gamers to switch platforms if all they do is mainly game the yearly third party titles.
Also, when it comes to games.............speechless. No one knew that PUBG or Fortnite would be as big as they were. Or that Horizon Zero Dawn would capture the sales that it did. Last generation, that was Gears of War for Microsoft and at the end of the generation it was coming through with Forza Horizon. This is not to say that Microsoft has had a great generation outside racing, shooters and games like Ori and Cuphead. They have not, and this is why you see investment in studios that they invested in.
The game is changing, and it is the hardcore that does not see it. Sony already launched their platform on PC, and I have always stated that it is only a matter of time before you start seeing games day and date on PS Now. Only a matter of time before you see Sony offering a product that canvases as many devices as they possibly can because going forward that is where the money is.
Microsoft by moving their content to Steam will be seeing a lot more consumers not only in sales, but potential subscribers (which is where they want to win). Focusing on console sales, or individual unit sales going forward is to miss the mark.
And when it comes to Lockhart, no problem. It is only a problem in this forum when people want to ignore that games are scaled. My only issue is the cross gen games.
my current thought process:
MS are behind on market share and I'm guessing are being hit by heavier YoY hardware sales drops than Sony. So they have less to lose by dropping XSX concrete info early, whereas Sony may want to eke out a little more from PS4 before being too explicit on PS5.
I do still think two events/streams makes sense. One early (Feb/mar) to outline the tech and show examples of possibilities - starts to get people more excited for it. Basically a mirror of the Feb 2013 event. Then a later event closer to launch with games specifics, third party partner stuff, price and launch windoe. This could be September (post summer) but I think if MS announced price etc at E3, So y won't want to leave them with the only preorderabke real box for months - so my guess would be June and within 1-2 weeks of MS show with invites going out any time the week if E3 to keep PlayStation in mind and likely have PS mentioned in any Xbox press coverage (Dreamcast style spoiler tactics)
But if a game is over 50 gigs wouldnt that disc only work on XSEX. So early cross gen games would have to be 50 gigs or less on dual layer, have a disc for each machine, or X1 version as download only? Anymore than 50 and the disc wouldnt read on X1 right?
Sony started talking about their console even before Microsoft did. Sony console sales will not drop as fast as Microsoft's, and they will be selling PS4's long after Microsoft has discontinued the XB1.
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