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PS5 and Xbox Series speculation |OT11| Cry Havoc and Let Slip the Dogs of War [NEW NEWS, NEW THREAD - CHECK OUT THE STAFF POST]
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wait, so you had to buy killzone shadowfall for $60 pounds/euros just to get the ps5?
thats pure evil. lol
right, my calculations above did came in at exactly $99.6.
i dont doubt the difference between the lockhart and anaconda will be over $150. I was comparing it to the PS4 BOM because that was a $399 console with a $100 on the APU alone. i just dont know how they price it at $299 by just getting rid of the $30 disc drive. where are the other savings coming from? the smaller SSD and VRAM should cost the same as the 500GB HDD and 8 GB of GDDR5 cost Sony in 2013. They will need those 22 cus clocked at 1.5 just to hit 4.2 tflops. or 1.4 ghz to hit 3.99 tflops. that might not require a fancy cooling solution but then again the ps4 didnt have one either. so no cost savings there either.
And this is before taking into account the bloomberg article which mentions ssd and ram costs are higher than usual. this would be a $380-400 bom console. how do you sell it at $299?
i think MS is going to price this as a $399 console. Sony will come in at $499 and 9 tflops. And XSex will come in at $599. they might cut costs and go with $450 and $550, but if the die costs are so high and ssds and ram prices are skyrocketing, i dont see a $499 12 tflops console unless they are willing to take a $100 loss.
If Sony and MS pay a fixed price per wafer, then die cost is a linear function of how many die fit on the wafer and the yield. In practice the die cost should roughly follow the die area for a fixed wafer price, assuming equivalent yields. I could imagine there could be some magic number here but it should be relatively linear when comparing similarly sized areas.
And we know both Sony and MS should deactivate CU for predictable yields.
Anyone is welcome to correct me if I am mistaken about something.
The smaller the die, the better the yields will be. :)
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Right, so for die that are similar in area and with the ability to disable CU's we should have similar if not identical yields and a linear estimation in cost vs area would do the trick. Just my 2c.The smaller the die, the better the yields will be. :)
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to be clear 200 vs 350 are not close enough in area for a good linear approximation.
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Okay I'll make my one prediction on prices for no reason besides seeing people catch bans for being ridiculous...
Lockhart 299 4tf
Barring a weird situation where the series x chips have super low yields so they disable chips and boosted it to 6 or 7 so people on the internet dont yell "but but but the one x is 6tf its lower powered" if that's the highly unlikely scenario then I go with...
Lockhart 6-7tf 349-399 depending on ps5 price if 399 then 50 undercut if it 500 they'll go 399
PS5 449-500 9TF-10.5TF
I was going to go with 399 but just in case Bloomberg stumbled onto a well sourced scoop and they are running into their original BOM getting jacked up by about 50 I doubt the corporate overlords at Sony want to take a bath just to "transition the fastest ever." Why? Because they know its going to sell out until at least Q2 2020 so why lose money just for sweet internet cred because internet cred does not keep the shareholders happy and people are gonna buy it for the next horizon or God of war anyways. I don't want to believe that Sony ended up just overclocking the hell out of a 5700 but I think they had a goal in mind for tflops and wanted to make it run much cooler and quieter so that's the reason it has "advanced cooling" just maybe they thought Microsoft was shooting for the same range of tflops and ended up guessing wrongly but hopefully the new steppings of their chip added some compute units so when specs come it isn't a graveyard of bans.
XSX 499-549 11.8TF-12.2TF
Microsoft takes a bath because of the profits made by Lockhart being the big seller for the COD, FIFA, and Madden crowd who haven't upgraded to a new 4k set and don't care to post on Digital foundry face off articles or pixel count. If 549 Microsoft tosses in 3-6 months of game pass to say "power your dreams with hundreds of games at launch including halo infinite and forza motorsport 8 at launch."
Sidenote: I see a lot of Sony should get better prices because they can guarantee 100m units over its lifetime but I'm not so sure of that because as far as I know they just license the tech from AMD and tsmc or someone else fabricates the apu which I'm sure is the case that yes theyll get a discount but if Microsoft is perhaps gonna use some excess series x for azure and they use a pretty significant amount of epyc chips for azure then perhaps Microsoft asks tsmc for a discount as well? As far as I know cloud chips are worth serious serious cash and i haven't checked the financial reports but amd and tsmc makes a killing of of that tech so why would you want to anger one of your biggest vendors on cloud tech just to give a discount to one vendor on something that isn't as profitable as cloud/server chips it just doesn't quite make sense to me. Now this is literally just word babble without any proper sourcing and I completely understand xbox is a different division from azure so their might be but none of us has any clue as to discounts for chip orders due to both mega corporations making massive orders.
TLDR: Nobody knows if anyone is gonna get discounts and this BOM report made it even worse for the thread because it made already dirty water even murkier so please god let us get some specs.
Lockhart 299 4tf
Barring a weird situation where the series x chips have super low yields so they disable chips and boosted it to 6 or 7 so people on the internet dont yell "but but but the one x is 6tf its lower powered" if that's the highly unlikely scenario then I go with...
Lockhart 6-7tf 349-399 depending on ps5 price if 399 then 50 undercut if it 500 they'll go 399
PS5 449-500 9TF-10.5TF
I was going to go with 399 but just in case Bloomberg stumbled onto a well sourced scoop and they are running into their original BOM getting jacked up by about 50 I doubt the corporate overlords at Sony want to take a bath just to "transition the fastest ever." Why? Because they know its going to sell out until at least Q2 2020 so why lose money just for sweet internet cred because internet cred does not keep the shareholders happy and people are gonna buy it for the next horizon or God of war anyways. I don't want to believe that Sony ended up just overclocking the hell out of a 5700 but I think they had a goal in mind for tflops and wanted to make it run much cooler and quieter so that's the reason it has "advanced cooling" just maybe they thought Microsoft was shooting for the same range of tflops and ended up guessing wrongly but hopefully the new steppings of their chip added some compute units so when specs come it isn't a graveyard of bans.
XSX 499-549 11.8TF-12.2TF
Microsoft takes a bath because of the profits made by Lockhart being the big seller for the COD, FIFA, and Madden crowd who haven't upgraded to a new 4k set and don't care to post on Digital foundry face off articles or pixel count. If 549 Microsoft tosses in 3-6 months of game pass to say "power your dreams with hundreds of games at launch including halo infinite and forza motorsport 8 at launch."
Sidenote: I see a lot of Sony should get better prices because they can guarantee 100m units over its lifetime but I'm not so sure of that because as far as I know they just license the tech from AMD and tsmc or someone else fabricates the apu which I'm sure is the case that yes theyll get a discount but if Microsoft is perhaps gonna use some excess series x for azure and they use a pretty significant amount of epyc chips for azure then perhaps Microsoft asks tsmc for a discount as well? As far as I know cloud chips are worth serious serious cash and i haven't checked the financial reports but amd and tsmc makes a killing of of that tech so why would you want to anger one of your biggest vendors on cloud tech just to give a discount to one vendor on something that isn't as profitable as cloud/server chips it just doesn't quite make sense to me. Now this is literally just word babble without any proper sourcing and I completely understand xbox is a different division from azure so their might be but none of us has any clue as to discounts for chip orders due to both mega corporations making massive orders.
TLDR: Nobody knows if anyone is gonna get discounts and this BOM report made it even worse for the thread because it made already dirty water even murkier so please god let us get some specs.
Transistor I have decided to gamble as well. Put me down for the Ides of March
We really need some sort of real information tbh
We really need some sort of real information tbh
Appreciate it and all apologies for the 9th grade level one page essay everyone, I just got rather flustered with the whole "but theyll get discounts because they sell so much" or "infinite warchest" arguments because as much as I love my silly plastic boxes ... they're created by mega corporations who want money to appease their shareholders... it sucks but them's the breaks.
Sometimes we have to place larger ideas into a perspective, so I present 5 more thoughts:
1.) Rumored 350 mm2 XSX GPU is ~ 7% larger than the entire PS4 Pro APU.
2.) Rumored 300 mm2 PS5 APU is ~ 9% smaller than the PS4 Pro APU.
3.) Logically, this results in A 40% larger XSX GPU if you are still white-knuckling the GitHub data.
4.) Recall that ZhugeEX build estimations ranged from 2-15 % difference, max.
5.) Recall we expect similar amounts of GDDR6 RAM.
Considering Richard's assertion of a 66% price increase per wafer for moving from 14 to 7 nm, why do you expect to see such a great delta in console performance and price?
1.) Rumored 350 mm2 XSX GPU is ~ 7% larger than the entire PS4 Pro APU.
2.) Rumored 300 mm2 PS5 APU is ~ 9% smaller than the PS4 Pro APU.
3.) Logically, this results in A 40% larger XSX GPU if you are still white-knuckling the GitHub data.
4.) Recall that ZhugeEX build estimations ranged from 2-15 % difference, max.
5.) Recall we expect similar amounts of GDDR6 RAM.
Considering Richard's assertion of a 66% price increase per wafer for moving from 14 to 7 nm, why do you expect to see such a great delta in console performance and price?
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No, ha ha ha, it was "included" but it was, of course, more expensive than a "simple"PS4. And I didn't wanted that game.
Don't know if France and the rest of Europe had the same, but the Killzone bundle in the UK included an extra controller and the camera, and was pretty decently priced and was well-stocked.
Maybe there was one but also too difficult to find (like you said, the price was pretty decent), mine was bundle only with the game.
As much as i dislike killzone shadowfail, it could've been worse... They could've bundled knack.
Thankfully the mp wasn't that bad. But as a massive fan of kz2 and kz3s campaigns, i was left baffled by the bizarre level design of the shadowfall campaign. I have no idea what they were going for with those empty levels.
So a more real Prediction of the unveiling:
Sony does announce things 2 OR 3 weeks prior to the event (when we account the past events like the PS Meeting 2013 or the TLOU II reveal)
Before TLOU II was delayed I always thought there is no chance for a reveal for the PS5 in February, but then they pushed it back ( I really think, this is one of the main reasons for the delay)
By GDC 2020, all ( or in other word: a lot of ) developers will have near-to-final/final devkits, so a Leak is very certain since it will be almost impossible to know where the leak did come from by then, so some dev(s) will be willing to have a fame time (which they will then use for maybe future BS that is less true xD - but hey the specs were right xD)
April: FF Remake - no Chance
May: TLOU II - no Chance
June: According to Tom Warren XSX will be unveiled before it, so maybe May? No way for a first unveil, Sony will go for a counter like in 2013 to steal the show.
So March before GDC is the only available option, to be able to gain massive attention twice like back in 2013 , so from a marketing standpoint IMHO, March before GDC must happen. Also I doubt, they want their secret sauce aka SSD to be leaked by a dev rather than by Mark Cerny himself.
So my guess: By March 1st, the event will be announced, or even earlier (since 2 weeks from March 1 is the 15th which is a Sunday, the day before GDC 2020, doesn't make sense to announce it here), but it has to be AFTER March 5th, where AMD is going to talk about their RDNA 2 architecture, which may be one reason why they push it after that event ( I mean they certainly will talk about RT etc., so I really doubt AMD will let allow them to unveil these features rather than themselfs in regards to Nvidia and its GTC 2020 which takes place 3 weeks later.)
The reveal has to happen now or in March, its the same situation like back in 2013, where the PS was revealed in February, and TLOU came out in June, to not disturb each other, and to gain the most of both)
March : First Look
May/June: Counter with Price announcement!
What do you think?
Sony does announce things 2 OR 3 weeks prior to the event (when we account the past events like the PS Meeting 2013 or the TLOU II reveal)
Before TLOU II was delayed I always thought there is no chance for a reveal for the PS5 in February, but then they pushed it back ( I really think, this is one of the main reasons for the delay)
By GDC 2020, all ( or in other word: a lot of ) developers will have near-to-final/final devkits, so a Leak is very certain since it will be almost impossible to know where the leak did come from by then, so some dev(s) will be willing to have a fame time (which they will then use for maybe future BS that is less true xD - but hey the specs were right xD)
April: FF Remake - no Chance
May: TLOU II - no Chance
June: According to Tom Warren XSX will be unveiled before it, so maybe May? No way for a first unveil, Sony will go for a counter like in 2013 to steal the show.
So March before GDC is the only available option, to be able to gain massive attention twice like back in 2013 , so from a marketing standpoint IMHO, March before GDC must happen. Also I doubt, they want their secret sauce aka SSD to be leaked by a dev rather than by Mark Cerny himself.
So my guess: By March 1st, the event will be announced, or even earlier (since 2 weeks from March 1 is the 15th which is a Sunday, the day before GDC 2020, doesn't make sense to announce it here), but it has to be AFTER March 5th, where AMD is going to talk about their RDNA 2 architecture, which may be one reason why they push it after that event ( I mean they certainly will talk about RT etc., so I really doubt AMD will let allow them to unveil these features rather than themselfs in regards to Nvidia and its GTC 2020 which takes place 3 weeks later.)
The reveal has to happen now or in March, its the same situation like back in 2013, where the PS was revealed in February, and TLOU came out in June, to not disturb each other, and to gain the most of both)
March : First Look
May/June: Counter with Price announcement!
What do you think?
I estimate $137 for a 300mm2 and $185 for a 405mm2 apu. If everything else remains the same then ms will probably not be at the same price point. If Sony is at $499, they will be $549. If Sony is at $449, they will be at $499.
At $549, they will already be taking a $50 loss of their bom is $500. It will be amazing if they manage to come in at $499 but i suspect they won't because Sony will just go to $449 because there is no way Sony is going to compete against a 12 tflops console with a 9 tflops one at the same price point.
I still think we are all missing something. I think both are at $500 bom and they have both known that they will be taking a $100 loss at the start.
MS knows that $499 is their sweet spot for consoles. I personally think their work into gamepass and xcloud subs on phones are to bring in extra revenues to subsidise the next gen losses
With the amount of money Sony is making with PSN, they will be able to eat the loss and sell the PS5 for U$399,90.
It'll be interesting to see how games, and an entire console OS, designed around fast NVMe storage will affect things in the future.
So I think there won't be a reveal like state of play or a ps meeting this month. I think Sony will release another wired article revealing the rest of the specs of the ps5( maybe next week). Then there will be a full reveal with games in the spring (probably around May). So 3 wired articles then full reveal. Fits perfectly with GodFall developers saying they will show more of their game in the spring.
OP
OP
Let's assume for a second two consoles as a basis, just so we can do some calculations.
XSX:
GPU - 2 SEs 56 CU @1.7Ghz (12.2TF).
CPU - 8c/16t @3.6Ghz.
Die size- 405mm^2.
Memory - 320-bit interface with 16GB GDDR6 @560GB/s.
Storage - 1TB SSD @3.7GB/s.
Optical Drive - 4K BR.
XSS:
GPU - 1 SE with 22 CU @1.5Ghz (4.2TF).
CPU - 8c/16t @3.2Ghz.
Die size - 265mm^2.
Memory - 192-bit interface with 12GB of GDDR6 @336Gb/s.
Storage - 512GB SSD @3.7GB/s.
Optical Drive - None.
Can we agree these specs are close to what we are going to get according to all the leaks and rumors? Something that we can base our calculation on?
OK, so let's start with the APU. We save 18 WGPs (60 total with 4 disabled CUs vs 24 total with 2 disabled CUs), with RT it's ~85mm^2. Now let's remove 128-bit worth of memory controllers, that's another 32mm^2. Now we remove an SE which is another 23mm^2. In total we've saved 140mm^2, so the XSS die is 265mm^2. If we assume the XSX APU is ~200$ with 80% yields, we can place it in a yield calculator. XSX with 80% yields and 405mm^2 die results in 106 usable APUs per 300mm wafer. A 265mm^2 XSS die with 85% yield (because the clocks are lower) gets you 189 usable APUs per 300mm wafer. So if we assumed the XSX APU is 200$, the XSS APU will cost 112$. OK, we've saved 88$ on the APU.
Now let's assume 1GB of 14Gbps GDDR6 is 5$ (will probably be more than that), XSS saves 4GB so that's another 20$. The SSD, if we assume the XSX SSD costs around 50$ (and I think I'm lowballing here), then XSS can save another 20$. Remove the optical drive and you save 30$ more. And now let's make the chassis smaller, cooling cheaper and shipping/storing cheaper because it's a smaller and lighter box, let's say another 20$ in total.
Now let's add it all up:
APU - 88$
Memory - 20$
SSD - 20$
Optical drive - 30$
Chassis size + cooling + shipping + storing - 20$
That's 178$. Now, you can disagree with a few things, say I exaggerated on some component, maybe I underplayed others, but I think we can agree that 150$ off the XSX price should be pretty easy with those specs. I'm still with the same opinion I've had before, 499$ PS5, 499$ XSX and a 349$ XSS. XSS will even lose less money than XSX, which makes sense because XSS customers will be more casual and will spend less money on games and services over the course of the generation. You don't need to compare XSS to the PS4, you need to compare it to the XSX. If a 499$ XSX loses them ~80$ per console, a 349$ XSS will probably lose them ~50$ per console which is very acceptable for a launch unit.
Colbert VX1 DukeBlueBall
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What if we riddle it down first by common elements:
Most likely similar or identical costs:
1.) CPU
2.) RAM
3.) SSD
4.) Case
5.) Cooling
So, barring a very small difference in GPU die area, we really can't expect to see much difference between these consoles at a give price point. If we have a $100 delta between the two consoles, I would expect to see a 20% perf difference.
Otherwise, for now, I will consider the two as similar performers. In my estimation, we don't have enough delta budget to really see a significant diff in perf, especially with expensive GPU die area being the main driving factor.
OP
OP
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Busy as always, he is. He noticed you currently have an avatar of the actor Chris Henson. Well, taking that into account, he thought there would be nothing better than the cover for the album mmmbop by esteemed 90's boy band Hanson!
Enjoy your dinner
😂AgonyRon! AgonyRon, party of one, your table is ready! The chef is delighted that you decided to join us tonight. And, since you're our only guest tonight, he's taken a special interest in whipping up something just for you. Let's look back and see how he's doing!
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Enjoy your dinner
All this 9TF vs 12 TF stuff just has me thinking both companies are talking about the same chip in different ways. Well, I mean I guess sony hasn't actually said much , it's just based on some testing leaks from months ago that seem highly likely to be true but still. What Microsoft has said that the new xbox is "twice/double the power of the one X". Given that we know thanks to DF the new AMD GPU's can do more per TF than the previous gen stuff that means 9TF RDNA could easily just = 12 TF worth of GCN so , MS wouldn't be exaggerating or even lying really. Hell they could even say "there's 12 TF worth of performance and it still wouldn't be a lie".
Basically I'm unconvinced these consoles will really be that different. I expect MS to price the series X at 499.99$ or more because it's pretty much a 2020 one X and I doubt they'll want to lose any more cash on each unit than they did with the one X. Sony is in a similar boat , they never had to price the pro at 500 bucks because they still broke even/made a tiny profit at 400 and honestly ? they probably aimed to do the same again here with the PS5 but if it doesn't pan out they might push the end cost up a bit. It won't be the end of the world because that launch window will remain a bit short of supply and people will snap them all up as fast as they're made. Competition might be a little more interesting after next march though....
Basically I'm unconvinced these consoles will really be that different. I expect MS to price the series X at 499.99$ or more because it's pretty much a 2020 one X and I doubt they'll want to lose any more cash on each unit than they did with the one X. Sony is in a similar boat , they never had to price the pro at 500 bucks because they still broke even/made a tiny profit at 400 and honestly ? they probably aimed to do the same again here with the PS5 but if it doesn't pan out they might push the end cost up a bit. It won't be the end of the world because that launch window will remain a bit short of supply and people will snap them all up as fast as they're made. Competition might be a little more interesting after next march though....
This is what I bought. In Australia the PS4 came out for AU$549, while the bundle was $699. Easy choice imo.
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Busy as always, he is. He noticed you currently have an avatar of the actor Chris Henson. Well, taking that into account, he thought there would be nothing better than the cover for the album mmmbop by esteemed 90's boy band Hanson!
Enjoy your dinner
AgonyRon! AgonyRon, party of one, your table is ready! The chef is delighted that you decided to join us tonight. And, since you're our only guest tonight, he's taken a special interest in whipping up something just for you. Let's look back and see how he's doing!
Busy as always, he is. He noticed you currently have an avatar of the actor Chris Henson. Well, taking that into account, he thought there would be nothing better than the cover for the album mmmbop by esteemed 90's boy band Hanson!
Enjoy your dinner
It's a shame we don't have animated avatars, you could do something really special with some of these.
You mean "mmmbon appetit"AgonyRon! AgonyRon, party of one, your table is ready! The chef is delighted that you decided to join us tonight. And, since you're our only guest tonight, he's taken a special interest in whipping up something just for you. Let's look back and see how he's doing!
Busy as always, he is. He noticed you currently have an avatar of the actor Chris Henson. Well, taking that into account, he thought there would be nothing better than the cover for the album mmmbop by esteemed 90's boy band Hanson!
Enjoy your dinner
AgonyRon! AgonyRon, party of one, your table is ready! The chef is delighted that you decided to join us tonight. And, since you're our only guest tonight, he's taken a special interest in whipping up something just for you. Let's look back and see how he's doing!
Busy as always, he is. He noticed you currently have an avatar of the actor Chris Henson. Well, taking that into account, he thought there would be nothing better than the cover for the album mmmbop by esteemed 90's boy band Hanson!
Enjoy your dinner
This is excellent.
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Free House For You, Jim
It's actually 2X the One X GPU. It's roughly a 1080 ti
Your RAM and NAND costs are highly inflated. They have already locked in orders for those commodities. They'll be paying between $5-$7 per GB if its GDDR6. NVIDIA currently pays slightly above $7. There won't be a $599 console. $499 and below. You can mark this tweet.
2X could easily mean 2.5X(~12 TF on RDNA if we assume 20% improvement). A 9TF GPU wouldn't have a 400mm APU Die and wouldn't be marketed as an "8K" Chip!!
This is the best xbox series price prediction/calculation I've seen so far.
I Do hope the XsS has a bit more GPU overhead incase devs want to do 1440p DLSS on ps5/XSX.
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