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PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - timing and specification
- Thread starter zomgbbqftw
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I sure hope it's fall 2020. Otherwise the pro would only get three total years of supported fall blockbuster games. That just seems way too short. Especially since pro support has been only really maturing this year.
I think 2020 would also give the X some breathing room. Barely enough I'd say.
I don't think Sony has any real need to jump the gun here. It sure didn't hurt them this last time against microsoft. Really 2020 seems comfortable for Sony given the rate PS4's are still selling. It's microsoft for whom 2020 might seem uncomfortable. If they released in 2019 that would mean they only get this year and the next for Xbox One X fall blockbusters. That's just not enough.
I think 2020 would also give the X some breathing room. Barely enough I'd say.
I don't think Sony has any real need to jump the gun here. It sure didn't hurt them this last time against microsoft. Really 2020 seems comfortable for Sony given the rate PS4's are still selling. It's microsoft for whom 2020 might seem uncomfortable. If they released in 2019 that would mean they only get this year and the next for Xbox One X fall blockbusters. That's just not enough.
Didn't think of that. But it would be kind of Kutaragi-ish to date a hardware release just based on an arbitrary anniversary. Will all the necessary hardware upgrades be in place?
I hope for 2020+ but looking at the schedule of Sony first party PS5 in 2019 is most likely with titles like Tlou 2 and FFVII remake (lol) being cross-gen. Console will be more about services, customer retention on PSN and further push into digital. Hardware sales will not be as important as at a start of this gen but keeping people in your console ecosystem. All shall welcome the MAU overlords.
GDDR6 is on track and is due at the beginning of 2018 (SK Hynix) as well as other manufacturer's, so we're good there.
Navi is supposed to be released next year as well on 7nm (complies with the fab schedules and they are on track as well).
Zen 2 I believe is due in Q3/4 of 2018 with Q1/2 being the refresh of the first generation of Ryzen, Zen 3 I believe will be in 2019 with the mobile counterpart being available 1 year later.
So early 2019 you'd have a Zen 2 refresh which is still better/faster/more IPC/power effiency than the original and most likely closer to a base Zen 3.
The other parts are already available UHD drive, HDD's, wiring, yada yada.
I'd said 2019 is like all the stars being aligned, 25 year anniversary, PS4 would have shipped 94-96m, and state of the art key components being available plus a brand* new node that's mature.
PlayStation would most likely end up having a 1 year head-start albeit weaker console than Xbox 2, 6 years after PS4, 3 years after Pro and they can keep selling to developing countries and easily break 110m+ LTD.
PS5 Pro which i believe is inevitable down the road could see a Zen3+, the GPU after Navi and possibly a 5nm node because all that would be available and mature by 2022 I reckon (and if the fabs remain on track).
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That does sound good for 2019. It would also mean that Sony would have to be pretty far along in their plans already and there might be some kind of more substantial rumors next year.
To reach 12-15TF, AMD will have to significantly improve their perf/watt metric compared to what they have today imo. Right now, i wouldnt bet on much more than 10TF.
Oh shit!!!!! I was waiting on this for months, the listings are finally up.
http://www.samsung.com/semiconductor/products/dram/graphic-dram/ (GDDR6 component)
http://www.samsung.com/semiconductor/products/dram/graphic-dram/gddr6-component/K4ZAF325BM?ia=3159
nice. i hope sony goes balls deep with this just like they did with the ps4
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If this goes according to AMD's plan and Sony manages to release the PS5 with Zen 2/Navi in late 2019, then I'll tip my hat to them. My main reason for wanting Sony to release the PS5 in 2020 is because I don't want them to use Vega considering the disappointing reception.
Agreed. They would want to almost double the GPU output over the X, not to mention 10-12TF gets a lot more comfortable for major tessellation, as well as, been talked to be approaching where VR really needs to be (bare minimum), to break through to the next level of immersion resolution wise.
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We should know by next year, AMD will have their re-brand/refresh of Vega in early 2018 and launch Navi later in the year.
If that happens then we're golden because the CPU branch is on fire, I have more faith in them than the RTG guys.
Then we fucked and it will be another disappointing generation hardware wise (at least to and for me).
I've made a thread on another forum previously but the new Navi goes up to 30TF and they can literally double that to 60TF if going dual.
Don't expect either results for PS5 but they have obviously improved significantly.
Infinity Fabric secret sauce, only real this time :P
*Passes blunt*
But seriously. I feel 10TF isn't quite enough for next gen. sure you could get 4k/30 or 4K/60 with lower fidelity but it just doesn't feel enough. Graphics fidelity won't make enough of a jump to feel worthwhile, the CPU side which will bring AI improvement might make next gen more substantial though, so there is that.
Realistically I'd like to see 12-14TF minimal. Then again consoles always surprise me with their optimisation techniques and checkerboarding might hopefully stay next gen.
12 tf I think is the most logical one and on 7nm by end of 2019 it is definitey not dream pipe
Why Sony would want to accelerate the end of a generation they are clearly dominating? Ball's is on competition hand.
To beat MS by one year to the market ? As Ms can not afford to launch earlier than 2020. History has shown the first console to the market usually keeps lead for the whole generation and thats their goal i assume . That' why they made sure to relese ps4 pro 3 years afte ps4 so by 2019 they can roll out next gen .
Its a possibility, though that 1 year advantage was not always the case (PS3, Dreamcast). Releasing PS5 means that they are putting on legacy mode the main revenue generator of the whole corporation. Though I see your point, personally I dont see Sony hurry things up.
It took ps3 6 yeas and many price cuts to catch up to that 5 mln ,1 year headstart of x360 world wide and completely got destroyed in NA due to 360 establishing it self as the default HD console due to its lead in units sold.
It is a balance they have to make, drag on the previous generation and maybe get one-upped by generation fatigue, people ready to jump to the next gen, get a new toy etc etc.
Or beat your competition to the punch by one year and sustain your lead, which they most likely will because the PlayStation brand have that much power behind it.
It is not something Microsoft can get away with due to their first party studios or lack there of, even when PS3 came out 1 year later it still ended up selling just as much as XBox360.
Had those roles been turned I'm not sure Microsoft would have been able to get away with the same result, strategy mate it all has to make sense in a way to make the most profit.
PS4 and Pro will likely be on the market till 2023 (10 year plan and all that) EU/NA aren't the only country in the world, it/they will keep selling but at a lower pace.
Graphs have shown that at a certain stage during a generation the decline in sales will start it will probably be next year. Pretty straight forward stuff I think at least.
Look at where they were with PS1 & 2 when the launched their successors. You don't wait until you're too far in the down cycle on hardware sales before introducing new hardware.
Don't forget by November 2019 EAs will be on 6 year old hardware for the base model and 3 years for the Pro - if you jumped in on a Pro during the launch period I'm betting a reasonably large % of that audience would jump in on a PS5, and by 2019 a lot base model owners who didn't buy a Pro will be getting thirsty...
Which is why I think we may see a $499 PS5 in 2019 with PS4 still being supported for a longer cross gen period. This would allow them to have good specs and the ability to get an early market lead without completely pulling the rug out from the PS4. A $499 2019 configuration would also probably be fairly close to a $399 2020 console and they can start cutting down to a more mainstream price as soon as MS enters the race.
I like the sound of that. Personally, I always thought PS5 would be Fall 2019 release. The way they did PS4 announcement to release was great and I think Sony would follow that. I love my Pro and I will always be day 1 for the latest PS hardware. This theory actually looks realistic if all pieces all into place. I really don't think power is going to matter, but the need for proper performance and carrying over PS4 software libraries will be very important on the next console release.
I personally don't think that it will launch in 2019 but nor do I think that it's far off. The PS4 is still performing ridiculously well, and I just cannot see Sony pushing to launch new hardware until that performance at least stagnates, unless they go with the premium box angle that Microsoft went with for the X. Fall 2020 at $399 is my guess, since that seems to be Sony's launch price for all of their hardware this gen. I'm expecting an 8TF GPU with 12-16GB of GDDR5 RAM, a 2TB hard drive (hopefully), and a marginal improvement in architecture over the Jaguar CPU.
That wouldn't be such a bad idea, might be a bit of a slow start but there's definitely benefits to that approach.
I'd rather take that than wait 3 years from the base model for a "premium" version.
$499 seems an unnecessary gamble and moves Sony uncomfortably close to the ball-park of PS3's infamous $599 tag.
The only reason I can see $499 happening is if they feel the need to put blue-water between the PS5 specs and the X1X, but that seems desperate to me. I dont see why Sony has anything to fear from the Nextbox, besides perhaps launching a long way behind them.
If the timing was crucial and their tech target just wouldnt cut it without a push to $499, well, maybe, but I just don't see it, although I'd probably buy it anyway.
The only reason I can see $499 happening is if they feel the need to put blue-water between the PS5 specs and the X1X, but that seems desperate to me. I dont see why Sony has anything to fear from the Nextbox, besides perhaps launching a long way behind them.
If the timing was crucial and their tech target just wouldnt cut it without a push to $499, well, maybe, but I just don't see it, although I'd probably buy it anyway.
The bread and butter for Sony now is what's going on the PSN nowdays... more than the number of units sold. Just look at the money collected from the PSN. The activity there is vastly more important imo.
Pretty much it's the largest online game store, at least by revenue that says a fucking lot.
Because almost everyone has a PC and while there are GoG, Live, Steam, EA, Ubi, SE and what's not they don't hold a candle on what PSN is making.
A big part of that is thanks to the unique and varied experiences PlayStation's first/second parties studios add to the ecosystem.
Always enjoy reading these threads interesting stuff as usual
10Tf is a massive difference compared to 1.8 Tf isn't it also not just about Tflops but other new improvements too not available on PS4 hardware
If Sony is looking at a 2019 launch, then they need to start locking down hardware in the first half of 2018, right? When did the first rumors of project Orbis leak? That should give us a rough idea of the lead time between locking down specs, announcement, and launch.
Vega = 'late and out of date'
I'm sure PS5 will use a GPU architecture that's a generation or so newer than Vega.
I don't think that's even a question, the question will be how many Compute Units / stream processors can put into a console GPU on 7nm in say, 2020.
PS4 - 18 CUs / 1152 sp (@ 800 MHz) 1.84 TFlops
XBone - 12 CUs / 768 sp (@ 853 MHz) 1.31 TFlops
PS4 Pro - 36 CUs / 2304 sp (@ 911 MHz) 4.2 TFlops
Xbox One X - 40 CUs / 2560 sp (@ 1172 MHz) 6 TFlops
I'm sure PS5 will use a GPU architecture that's a generation or so newer than Vega.
I don't think that's even a question, the question will be how many Compute Units / stream processors can put into a console GPU on 7nm in say, 2020.
PS4 - 18 CUs / 1152 sp (@ 800 MHz) 1.84 TFlops
XBone - 12 CUs / 768 sp (@ 853 MHz) 1.31 TFlops
PS4 Pro - 36 CUs / 2304 sp (@ 911 MHz) 4.2 TFlops
Xbox One X - 40 CUs / 2560 sp (@ 1172 MHz) 6 TFlops
AMD and nVidia work on more than one GPU architecture at time I think it's why PlayStation could get features from Vega/Polaris.
So it could be a Navi with features from the GPU that comes after it, I really don't see Vega happening for PS5.
Plus miners are clearing out AMD's stock nicely so there shouldn't be left overs they'd try to dump on console manufacturer's.
It was 5.5B for PSN per quarter and 3.8B for Steam IIRC, somewhere around that. It's on the old site.
I realllyyy hope it's announced soon because I just went 4K OLED and my PS4 isn't cutting it anymore and I don't want to shell out for a Pro >< Guess I'll wait until E3 and if there's no info by then, I'll have to. Hard to go back once you've tasted great screen quality.
We're not getting any official word about this before E3. Zero chance.
10TF is likely the minimum spec PS5 could come in at and push native 4k across the board with a decent boost to visuals as well.
12TF imo would be the sweet spot for native 4k and a substantial boost to visuals. Essentially double Xbox One X GPU. I really hope they push and get there, though as 12TF coupled with faster and larger RAM and a much improved CPU would feel truly "next gen" compared to PS4 base
12TF imo would be the sweet spot for native 4k and a substantial boost to visuals. Essentially double Xbox One X GPU. I really hope they push and get there, though as 12TF coupled with faster and larger RAM and a much improved CPU would feel truly "next gen" compared to PS4 base
I don't expect PS5 to be announced anytime next year, in 2018. So next E3, no way.
The earliest possibility might come in December 2019 for PlayStation's 25th anniversary, otherwise I don't expect PS5 to get announced until early 2020, if indeed it's launching for Holiday 2020.
Remember, PS4 was announced February 2013 and launched that November, the same year.
The earliest possibility might come in December 2019 for PlayStation's 25th anniversary, otherwise I don't expect PS5 to get announced until early 2020, if indeed it's launching for Holiday 2020.
Remember, PS4 was announced February 2013 and launched that November, the same year.
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