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Reuters Poll: Black Male Support for Trump Doubles because Kanye

Ponn

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,169
I'd like to see this reflected elsewhere and before getting nervous. Trump's support from black men doubling in a week because of Kanye feels extreme.

No one man should have all that power if true.
Our society really enjoys being followers, minority groups aren’t immune to that. I’ve had a discussion before on the other site how I felt it was important for minority groups to have strong leaders instead of nebulous groups like BLM. This is partly why I felt that way and why it could become problematic. People and groups always look to strong, outspoken leaders to get behind. Doesn’t matter if they are qualified or right just as long as they have a clear message people can get behind. Kanye is taking advantage and filling that void for the black community.

Dems really need to start paying attention to this. There needs to be more and stronger leaders in the political sphere with clear unified messaging from the black community. Minority groups in general, more LGBT rep would go a long way as well but that’s another topic.
 

Red Cadet 015

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
2,947
Hillary took 94% of the black female vote.

It did nothing.
Elections are based on two things. Your margins with particular groups, and the propensity for the groups your candidate has a positive margin with to turn out. Hillary was a terrible candidate because she is not exciting and does not turn out voters. Trump was just exciting enough to overcome his deficits.
 

Mathieran

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,122
I can't believe how easily some people are swayed by celebrities. I guess we should consider ourselves lucky most of them are liberal or moderate at the least.
 

D65

Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,862
I feel like, if true, these people always supported trump but felt like they weren't supposed to.
 

Betty

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
9,560
Elections are based on two things. Your margins with particular groups, and the propensity for the groups your candidate has a positive margin with to turn out. Hillary was a terrible candidate because she is not exciting and does not turn out voters. Trump was just exciting enough to overcome his deficits.
I honestly think Trump will not only get more votes next time, but that less voters will turn out to vote against him due to apathy or a general feeling he’ll win anyway.
 

Abstrusity

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,480
Random sample of 171 out of a total of 2,669 total respondents.
...over a period of 3 months.

So let's stretch that out, shall we? All the way back to the very beginning of his presidency.

And oh look, 22% approval from black Americans...But wait, what's this? On January 22nd, his disapproval was 55%...but with this LAST data point, it's 71%.

Please, folks, the sky isn't falling. Ya'll freaking out about not just "nothing," but a poll that actually looks worse for Trump than it basically ever has been. :^)

That trend line is toward lower approval ratings, higher disapproval ratings, and much lower "unsures," and while Kanye West doing his Kanye Best (predictably, not good enough), may have messed with the data a little bit, it's likely a temporary bump because of how popular he is.
 

Rackham

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,886
anyone see the irony in Kanye talking about free thought and then people polling a bunch of Kanye dickriders about their thoughts
 
Oct 27, 2017
7,149
are you a s t a t i s t i c i a n ?

but anyway, i feel like this is a good launching pad for a discussion on how cishet black men are most prone to break away from the black community and what we can do to prevent that from happening because we need them
Government failed them on so many levels, can’t expect someone to keep coming back when they’re getting nothing but worse treatment.
 

Abstrusity

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,480
Oh for fuck's sake, this just keeps getting worse the more I read about it.

From the WAPO writeup on this poll and Trump's stupidity:
"His approval with black men a week before was 11 percent with this poll, which uses a non-probability online sample"

"non-probability online sample"


http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/12/2016/04/Nonprobability-report-May-2016-FINAL.pdf

Widespread errors found for estimates based on blacks and Hispanics. Online nonprobability survey vendors want to provide samples that are representative of the diversity of the U.S. population, but one important question is whether the panelists who are members of racial and ethnic minority groups are representative of these groups more broadly. This study suggests they are not. Across the nine nonprobability samples, the average estimated bias on benchmarked items was more than 10 percentage points for both Hispanics (15.1) and blacks (11.3). In addition, the online samples rarely yielded accurate estimates of the marginal effects of being Hispanic or black on substantive outcomes, when controlling for other demographics. These results suggest that researchers using online nonprobability samples are at risk of drawing erroneous conclusions about the effects associated with race and ethnicity.

It's likely enough that the Reuters Poll is close enough to statistically accurate when you have a much larger sample -- like, say, everyone -- than a tiny cross section of an even smaller subset of Americans, and after all of that, you're still running into self-selection issues because of how the poll was created.

For fuck's sake. This poll is literally worthless.
 

Zelas

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,419
Even with the cherry picking of questionable metrics this doesn't amount to anything.

The AP is telling its reporters to seriously reconsider making articles about a outlier polls, maybe Era should do they same with people posting this shit just to rile up folks. Make people actually present and defend an argument as to why a poll actually matters instead of dropping one and running.
 

ImaginaShawn

Member
Oct 27, 2017
904
Every day I feel like the American people are getting stupider and stupider. They are willfully and proudly ignorant, never learn from their mistakes, and continually cut off their noses to spite their faces. As an American, I would not mind seeing the country destroy itself and let some other country take the reigns as the world's moral authority and superpower, but sadly our only two alternatives are between China and Russia.
 

Box of Kittens

Resettlement Advisor
Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,896
200 people as a subset of panelists isn't out of the norm, y'all. That's pretty much in-line with other leading polls (e.g. Pew, based on their average totals) would have too, and Reuters is amongst them.

Obviously, don't freak out, and obviously, larger sample-size = greater statistical power, but this is pretty standard, and limited by survey means and resources (and these samples are expensive AF to continually poll as is) that you'd only really get a more generalizable result if someone literally has been waiting for Kanye to go off the rails and had this specific study question in mind for years.

It's definitely a bold headline to have a limitation like that, for sure.
I can't speak for anybody else, but it's not that I think there's anything wrong with the sample size, just that there's absolutely no way you can make an inference like "Trump's black male support has doubled" from it.
 

Double 0

Member
Nov 5, 2017
2,360
This poll means nothing.

But this article? Oh it has been weaponized alright.


That is the point more than anything. And a lot are falling for it. Which is why critical thinking is very important.
 

iksenpets

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,745
Dallas, TX
This is most likely an anomaly, or a blip that will fade, but I do think that the threat of conservatives peeling off a non-trivial number of black and Latino men as gender becomes a more and more salient issue politically is a definite threat to the left in the medium-to-long term. There are definitely openings there, especially if you could get someone less openly racist than Trump making the case in the future.
 

siddx

Banned
Dec 25, 2017
1,807
Not surprising. A yeezy stan and a Trump supporter have a lot of overlap. Both lack common sense, empathy, and taste. Both are self centered and delusional to the point of possibly needing psychological intervention. And both are oblivious to the disdain most others feel towards them.
 

Psamtik

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,558
Sometimes it really feels like nothing will ever be good again. I should've jumped off a bridge after the election.
 
Dec 31, 2017
2,025
Damn man, you really shouldn’t be letting your favorite entertainer sway you towards insanity. Pop culture really has a tremendous effect on people, generally for the worse.
 

Working yet?

Member
Oct 31, 2017
2,095
I have always, and will always, look down on people who base their opinions on what other people say or tell them. If you can't be arsed to formulate your own opinions through careful research, you might as well just be an insect.
 

EvoTech

Banned
Dec 30, 2017
431
Not sure why everyone is saying Trump is racist towards the black community. In any case this doubling still isn't very much. Democrats could still prevail if they shape up soon.
 

Cyanity

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,289
this is fucking wild. But it's also a weekly tracking poll, so it's kind of useless long-term.
 

mutantmagnet

Member
Oct 28, 2017
8,640
I honestly think Trump will not only get more votes next time, but that less voters will turn out to vote against him due to apathy or a general feeling he’ll win anyway.
You basically don't understand how elections generally work.

Trump was competitive strictly because voters did want a change over Obama.

Voters will want a change over Trump.


He will either be impeached, primaried by someone who is as openy racist but is clearly way more intelligent or he'll lose to the Democrat.

The white identity politics Trump stood for won't go away but the reality tv drama and stupidity they will vote against if given the option within the Republican party. They simply won't vote for the Democrat or Trump if their next great white hope didn't appear.
 

MIMIC

Member
Dec 18, 2017
3,294
Anecdotally-speaking, I don't know a single Kanye fan that doesn't think he's crazy.