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Reuters Poll: Black Male Support for Trump Doubles because Kanye
- Thread starter woman
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You guys should've known back then that he was an attention whore. I knew... I always knew. Then I bought Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon on VHS at a Target that day. For some reason I remember that.
Our society really enjoys being followers, minority groups aren't immune to that. I've had a discussion before on the other site how I felt it was important for minority groups to have strong leaders instead of nebulous groups like BLM. This is partly why I felt that way and why it could become problematic. People and groups always look to strong, outspoken leaders to get behind. Doesn't matter if they are qualified or right just as long as they have a clear message people can get behind. Kanye is taking advantage and filling that void for the black community.
Dems really need to start paying attention to this. There needs to be more and stronger leaders in the political sphere with clear unified messaging from the black community. Minority groups in general, more LGBT rep would go a long way as well but that's another topic.
By your own logic, black support of Trump should go up, not down.
Elections are based on two things. Your margins with particular groups, and the propensity for the groups your candidate has a positive margin with to turn out. Hillary was a terrible candidate because she is not exciting and does not turn out voters. Trump was just exciting enough to overcome his deficits.
What the hell?
Maybe Annihilation was right. Some of us have this innate need to destroy ourselves
Maybe Annihilation was right. Some of us have this innate need to destroy ourselves
I honestly think Trump will not only get more votes next time, but that less voters will turn out to vote against him due to apathy or a general feeling he'll win anyway.
Random sample of 171 out of a total of 2,669 total respondents.
...over a period of 3 months.
So let's stretch that out, shall we? All the way back to the very beginning of his presidency.
And oh look, 22% approval from black Americans...But wait, what's this? On January 22nd, his disapproval was 55%...but with this LAST data point, it's 71%.
Please, folks, the sky isn't falling. Ya'll freaking out about not just "nothing," but a poll that actually looks worse for Trump than it basically ever has been. :^)
That trend line is toward lower approval ratings, higher disapproval ratings, and much lower "unsures," and while Kanye West doing his Kanye Best (predictably, not good enough), may have messed with the data a little bit, it's likely a temporary bump because of how popular he is.
...over a period of 3 months.
So let's stretch that out, shall we? All the way back to the very beginning of his presidency.
And oh look, 22% approval from black Americans...But wait, what's this? On January 22nd, his disapproval was 55%...but with this LAST data point, it's 71%.
Please, folks, the sky isn't falling. Ya'll freaking out about not just "nothing," but a poll that actually looks worse for Trump than it basically ever has been. :^)
That trend line is toward lower approval ratings, higher disapproval ratings, and much lower "unsures," and while Kanye West doing his Kanye Best (predictably, not good enough), may have messed with the data a little bit, it's likely a temporary bump because of how popular he is.
I hope so, but i'm not setting up myself or others for disappointment.
Government failed them on so many levels, can't expect someone to keep coming back when they're getting nothing but worse treatment.
2016 was an enigma to be sure, I'm pretty optimistic that people will see Trump for the fraud that northeastern coast people have seen him all along.
Oh for fuck's sake, this just keeps getting worse the more I read about it.
From the WAPO writeup on this poll and Trump's stupidity:
"His approval with black men a week before was 11 percent with this poll, which uses a non-probability online sample"
"non-probability online sample"
http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-co...6/04/Nonprobability-report-May-2016-FINAL.pdf
Widespread errors found for estimates based on blacks and Hispanics. Online nonprobability survey vendors want to provide samples that are representative of the diversity of the U.S. population, but one important question is whether the panelists who are members of racial and ethnic minority groups are representative of these groups more broadly. This study suggests they are not. Across the nine nonprobability samples, the average estimated bias on benchmarked items was more than 10 percentage points for both Hispanics (15.1) and blacks (11.3). In addition, the online samples rarely yielded accurate estimates of the marginal effects of being Hispanic or black on substantive outcomes, when controlling for other demographics. These results suggest that researchers using online nonprobability samples are at risk of drawing erroneous conclusions about the effects associated with race and ethnicity.
It's likely enough that the Reuters Poll is close enough to statistically accurate when you have a much larger sample -- like, say, everyone -- than a tiny cross section of an even smaller subset of Americans, and after all of that, you're still running into self-selection issues because of how the poll was created.
For fuck's sake. This poll is literally worthless.
From the WAPO writeup on this poll and Trump's stupidity:
"His approval with black men a week before was 11 percent with this poll, which uses a non-probability online sample"
"non-probability online sample"
http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-co...6/04/Nonprobability-report-May-2016-FINAL.pdf
Widespread errors found for estimates based on blacks and Hispanics. Online nonprobability survey vendors want to provide samples that are representative of the diversity of the U.S. population, but one important question is whether the panelists who are members of racial and ethnic minority groups are representative of these groups more broadly. This study suggests they are not. Across the nine nonprobability samples, the average estimated bias on benchmarked items was more than 10 percentage points for both Hispanics (15.1) and blacks (11.3). In addition, the online samples rarely yielded accurate estimates of the marginal effects of being Hispanic or black on substantive outcomes, when controlling for other demographics. These results suggest that researchers using online nonprobability samples are at risk of drawing erroneous conclusions about the effects associated with race and ethnicity.
It's likely enough that the Reuters Poll is close enough to statistically accurate when you have a much larger sample -- like, say, everyone -- than a tiny cross section of an even smaller subset of Americans, and after all of that, you're still running into self-selection issues because of how the poll was created.
For fuck's sake. This poll is literally worthless.
Even with the cherry picking of questionable metrics this doesn't amount to anything.
The AP is telling its reporters to seriously reconsider making articles about a outlier polls, maybe Era should do they same with people posting this shit just to rile up folks. Make people actually present and defend an argument as to why a poll actually matters instead of dropping one and running.
The AP is telling its reporters to seriously reconsider making articles about a outlier polls, maybe Era should do they same with people posting this shit just to rile up folks. Make people actually present and defend an argument as to why a poll actually matters instead of dropping one and running.
Every day I feel like the American people are getting stupider and stupider. They are willfully and proudly ignorant, never learn from their mistakes, and continually cut off their noses to spite their faces. As an American, I would not mind seeing the country destroy itself and let some other country take the reigns as the world's moral authority and superpower, but sadly our only two alternatives are between China and Russia.
I can't speak for anybody else, but it's not that I think there's anything wrong with the sample size, just that there's absolutely no way you can make an inference like "Trump's black male support has doubled" from it.
Unless something economically bad happens (premiums skyrocket, etc,,) and/or Mueller comes through, he absolutely will.
He probably still loses the popular vote though, not that it matters.
This is most likely an anomaly, or a blip that will fade, but I do think that the threat of conservatives peeling off a non-trivial number of black and Latino men as gender becomes a more and more salient issue politically is a definite threat to the left in the medium-to-long term. There are definitely openings there, especially if you could get someone less openly racist than Trump making the case in the future.
Not surprising. A yeezy stan and a Trump supporter have a lot of overlap. Both lack common sense, empathy, and taste. Both are self centered and delusional to the point of possibly needing psychological intervention. And both are oblivious to the disdain most others feel towards them.
And then there are tons of people ready to jump on this note to make inferences and racial slurs towards black men at the drop of the hat in this very thread.
Damn man, you really shouldn't be letting your favorite entertainer sway you towards insanity. Pop culture really has a tremendous effect on people, generally for the worse.
I have always, and will always, look down on people who base their opinions on what other people say or tell them. If you can't be arsed to formulate your own opinions through careful research, you might as well just be an insect.
If you don't know why he's racist towards the black community then I don't know what information you're looking at....
Yeah, I totally forsee re-election. It's whatever... I don't care anymore.
I'll vote, ofc. But. Eh.
You basically don't understand how elections generally work.
Trump was competitive strictly because voters did want a change over Obama.
Voters will want a change over Trump.
He will either be impeached, primaried by someone who is as openy racist but is clearly way more intelligent or he'll lose to the Democrat.
The white identity politics Trump stood for won't go away but the reality tv drama and stupidity they will vote against if given the option within the Republican party. They simply won't vote for the Democrat or Trump if their next great white hope didn't appear.
