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uncleniccius

Member
Nov 3, 2017
1,082
What is it now? A quick look on Curry's and there are 45 full HD sets (half of which are small sets) and 240 UHD sets (229 of which are HDR comp) I very much doubt anyone's talking about 4k in three years time.
I can't find stats but I imagine that as a % 4k market share is still fairly low overall - well below half (even though it would be a high % of TV's bought new). In two/three years a much greater number of people will have upgraded. This shows a graph but can't comment on reliability as finding a more reliable source is proving difficult. https://www.broadbandtvnews.com/2015/03/10/4k-tv-ownership-in-us-will-reach-10-by-2016/


It is definitely mainstream but has a way to go. Not that I think this is a major factor in next gen launch date.

This is more reliable and backs up this assertion: https://www.ibc.org/consumption/uhd-the-race-for-adoption-/1890.article

Adoption isn't at a super high rate yet. Though prices dropping rapidly will help.
 
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Box

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
6,629
Lancashire
It is definitely mainstream but has a way to go. Not that I think this is a major factor in next gen launch date.

Yeah even if it isn't saturated by then, 4k simply isn't going to be a selling point in 2021. your point about market share, I forget for every 'me' there are several 'my parents' who recently upgraded their ancient nobrand 720 set (because it broke) to a Panasonic 1080 one, and are beside themselves with joy (23" to 27" mindblower)
 

nextJin

Member
Mar 17, 2018
455
Georgia
Not to start probably misleading speculation, but if Sony is the main driver/consumer for Navi development, it does beg the question of where a MS contract fits in.

But maybe the author of the article doesn't have the full picture. Maybe 'Sony' is just shorthand for consoles in general, and both MS and Sony will be Navi clients. Or maybe MS is targeting a very different timeframe - by the sounds of it, Navi is using the bulk of AMD's engineering resources, so I'm not sure they could be developing another completely different solution simultaneously for another client. If MS is going AMD, and going for a similar timeframe, presumably it would have to be something Navi-based.

I want to know the same thing, we know Sony modified (or had a hand in it) the PS4 from AMD to fit their parameters. Much more customized then the MS part.

I'm wondering if they are doing the same thing and AMD is just giving MS a more baseline option. I'd be very curious to know how all the extra customizations have impacted Sony WWS games. I can't recall all the differences but they had like 8x and 4x of the MS variant and other interconnects that were custom.
 

uncleniccius

Member
Nov 3, 2017
1,082
Yeah even if it isn't saturated by then, 4k simply isn't going to be a selling point in 2021. your point about market share, I forget for every 'me' there are several 'my parents' who recently upgraded their ancient nobrand 720 set (because it broke) to a Panasonic 1080 one, and are beside themselves with joy (23" to 27" mindblower)
I agree with your point, was just trying to emphasise that not everyone has 4K. I'm super into tech but as a university student without a pro can't justify it for now.

On the plus side it is getting to a point where 4K TV's are so cheap that 1080p is less and less of a thing.

Is easy to think that Era represents the majority when in reality it is probably the 5-10% most engaged people who play games.
 

GodofWine

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
2,775
Are the CPUs supposed to be garbage in these new consoles?

General thought is that they will 'not be garbage', as in they will not be jaguar-mobile CPU's or whatever. I think they will be equivalent to a mid tier CPU that is available currently, and that will be a massive upgrade. My gaming PC has a $60 cpu that is over a year old (g4560 which is such a great cheap cpu) and it runs circles around my PS4 in identical CPU heavy games (like Kerbal), so even a custom Ryzen 1300 would smoke my cpu, and probably be very cheap in 2020 for Sony.

TLDR - I'd expect 'Budget gaming PC' equivalency
 

bear force one

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
4,305
Orlando
If the folks at Sony are serious about competing with next gen and not resting on their PS4 laurels, PS5 will launch in 2019.

Everything Sony needs to launch Q4 of 2019 is lined up:
1) 7nm TSMC process (7nm parts will ship in 2018 to Apple and Qualcomm. Volume production in 2019 is not a problem)
2) GDDR6 (shipping in 2018 by NVidia)
3) HDMI 2.1 (Very important. This gives Sony adaptive sync on 4K TV's. Will allow more 60fps games, since frame rate drops aren't a problem with adaptive sync)
4) Navi (Navi was originally scheduled for release in 2018. With some schedule slippage, a fall 2019 date is easily doable).
5) Zen (This is the easiest bit. Zen is already architecturally complete, so Sony can drop it into a 2019 design).

So Sony should be planning PS5 for Q4 2019. If schedules get delayed for unplanned reasons, they can shift launch to Q1 or Q2 of 2020. Q4 2020 is too late and will negatively impact them competitively.
Not going to happen.
 

uncleniccius

Member
Nov 3, 2017
1,082
I'm reminded of this every time I see the UK sales charts.
We barely discuss some of the most popular games in the world and I'm fine with it :D
Absolutely - nothing wrong with it. People forget that at the moment a lot of people play nothing but Fortnite, and you would get a very different impression reading just Era.
 

Buggy Loop

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,232
I feel bad for console manufacturers sticking with AMD. CPU wise it's fine, but GPU? ..... yeaa.. long gone are the days of the 7000 series, that was a nice architecture for the days. Seems like AMD just bring something competitive on the table.
 

Xx 720

Member
Nov 3, 2017
3,920
Ps4 pro and xbox 1x games already look soo good it kinda seems too quick to bring out new consoles I wonder how my h different the games will be
 

Betty

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
17,604
Ps4 pro and xbox 1x games already look soo good it kinda seems too quick to bring out new consoles I wonder how my h different the games will be

I totally agree, at most I think games will push for more 60fps and true 4K but other than that i'm not expecting a world of difference.
 

Intersect

Banned
Nov 5, 2017
451
The lack of Microsoft in this story is what sticks out the most especially after Phil Spencer confirmed XB2 is deep in to being architected.

The other thing that sticks out (if the story has any truth) is that it is telling a story that happened a long time ago. Koduri left AMD 7 months ago so there is a starting point and go backward from there. Most likely a lot of it would've taken place in 2016/2017?
Lots of info in that article does not make sense:
1) Navi is not next generation, it uses Next generation memory (In AMD slides)
2) Your long time ago dates for semi-custom work by AMD and Sony using Navi features (my take) and a PS5 launch 2020-2021 when the Next Generation GPU after Navi ships as shown in the AMD slide does not make sense. A PS5 by definition should be using a next generation GPU not Navi which is still GCN.
3) Timing, as you pointed out, more likely points to a PS4 iteration coming holiday 2018 using Navi features added to the 2013 PS4 GCN GPU, this insures PS4 compatibility. This was already put forward attributed to the Semiaccurate next PS4.3 or PS5 article.

Micron GDDR6 in game consoles slide has game consoles starting to use GDDR6 late 2018
efficientgaming.eu has new 2019 power caps for a Media and a Gaming console. 80% of the consoles sold in 2019 have to comply with those power caps. The current PS4 and PS4 Pro can not comply with the Media Console power cap.
TSMC mentions gaming as one of 50 7nm projects they are forging 2H 2018

A Sony developer stressed PS4 iterations and Sony said a PS5 is coming 2021, what is coming Holiday 2018?
 
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gofreak

Member
Oct 26, 2017
7,736
Lots of info in that article does not make sense:
1) Navi is not next generation, it uses Next generation memory
2) Your long time ago dates for semi-custom work by AMD and Sony using Navi features (my take) and a PS5 launch 2020-2021 when the Next Generation GPU after Navi ships as shown in the AMD slide does not make sense. A PS5 by definition should be using a next generation GPU not Navi which is still GCN.

The article suggests Navi is their next-gen, post-GCN arch. It addresses what 'next-gen' in the leaked roadmap actually means, so it's not really inconsistent... assuming any of this is correct info, of course.

3) Timing, as you pointed out, more likely points to a PS4 iteration coming holiday 2018 using Navi features added to the 2013 PS4 GCN GPU, this insures PS4 compatibility. This was already put forward attributed to the Semiaccurate next PS4.3 or PS5 article.

A Sony developer stressed PS4 iterations and Sony said a PS5 is coming 2021

Source on any of this? I don't think Sony has said anything about PS5's timeframe. I also highly doubt there'll be any further PS4 iteration.
 

2+2=5

Member
Oct 29, 2017
971
So it's probably 2020, PS5 won't go for the most expensive technology, it will use a custom Navi 10.
 

Deleted member 34239

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 24, 2017
1,154
The article suggests Navi is their next-gen, post-GCN arch. It addresses what 'next-gen' in the leaked roadmap actually means, so it's not really inconsistent... assuming any of this is correct info, of course.



Source on any of this? I don't think Sony has said anything about PS5's timeframe. I also highly doubt there'll be any further PS4 iteration.
Dude it's Intersect, Sony has not said the PS5 is coming in 2021. He's just putting words in their mouth like always....
 

Intersect

Banned
Nov 5, 2017
451
The article suggests Navi is their next-gen, post-GCN arch. It addresses what 'next-gen' in the leaked roadmap actually means, so it's not really inconsistent... assuming any of this is correct info, of course.



Source on any of this? I don't think Sony has said anything about PS5's timeframe. I also highly doubt there'll be any further PS4 iteration.
PS5 2021 What I read in the article was Navi allows more than 64 CUs which is a GCN limitation; it is assumed Navi is not GCN because of that. From what I understand, Navi is a scale able 7nm design which includes infinity fabric support allowing multiple chiplets each still with the GCN 64 CU limit so two chiplets could support two PS4 Pro GPUs which in total would exceed the GCN limit for one GPU.

I assume the Media Console is a monolithic APU of about PS4 Pro performance using GDDR6 and supports Playready 3000 level DRM. The Gaming Console is likely a MCM assembly of a 7nm Zen CPU chiplet and two GPU chiplets based on some Navi features. I/O and other functions are on separate chiplets.

The Semiaccurate article specifies two different launch dates which they attributed to possible manufacturing issues but I assume two consoles with the Gaming Console likely delayed.
 
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GameAddict411

Member
Oct 26, 2017
8,521
PS5 2021 What I read in the article was Navi allows more than 64 CUs which is a GCN limitation; it is assumed Navi is not GCN because of that. From what I understand, Navi is a scale able 7nm design which includes infinity fabric support allowing multiple chiplets each still with the GCN 64 CU limit so two chiplets could support two PS4 Pro GPUs which in total would exceed the GCN limit for one GPU.
I am not sure why you don't consider that a new architecture. Removing just that limitation, and introducing a more flexible architecture is easily considered to be totally new in my book(and the people who wrote the article). Are you expecting them to reinvent the wheel to consider it a new architecture?
 

Stardestroyer

Member
Oct 31, 2017
1,819
I feel bad for console manufacturers sticking with AMD. CPU wise it's fine, but GPU? ..... yeaa.. long gone are the days of the 7000 series, that was a nice architecture for the days. Seems like AMD just bring something competitive on the table.
Well you shouldn't. They probably do not analysis on who to select as a partner. If AMD could not do what Sony wanted they would have gone to somewhere else who could. IN any case, Sony doesn't need Nvidia level of graphics to sell its console, it just need it to be better than what they currently have.
 
Nov 30, 2017
1,563
I think PS5 comes out 2021. Just wondering if MS comes out at the same time or if they wait 6 months until they know PS5 specs in concrete so they can bump that up a bit.
 

Netherscourge

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,932
2021 sounds about right.

2020 is still too early. Maybe LATE 2020 for Holiday season, but doubtful.

A lot of big games announced this week for current gen aren't even coming out until 2019. And they'll want to get a few good cycles of DLC/Micros/Expansions/etc... to milk out of them through 2020 at least.

At 2020 E3 Sony and MS will announce new consoles. Then either Holiday 2020 or early 2021 they launch.

PS4 and Xbox One will have legs, especially with the Pro and One X.

Just sit back an enjoy this gen for a couple more years.
 

BitsandBytes

Member
Dec 16, 2017
4,576
I think PS5 comes out 2021. Just wondering if MS comes out at the same time or if they wait 6 months until they know PS5 specs in concrete so they can bump that up a bit.

Sorry but PS5 is more likely to release in 2017 than 2021!

Intersect

Those articles about 2021 IMO are horribly misinterpreting what Sony were saying at the IR day. Sony purposely said very little infact and didn't even show figures for FY 2019 (April 1st 2019-March 31st 2020). Why?

they wait 6 months until they know PS5 specs in concrete so they can bump that up a bit.

*slowly walks away from keyboard*
 

Intersect

Banned
Nov 5, 2017
451
I am not sure why you don't consider that a new architecture. Removing just that limitation, and introducing a more flexible architecture is easily considered to be totally new in my book(and the people who wrote the article). Are you expecting them to reinvent the wheel to consider it a new architecture?
Navi 10, the smallest Navi GPU, would have less than 64 GCN CUs. Navi 20 could be two Navi 10 GPU chiplets with possibly more than 64 CUs. It's an extension of old AMD ability to have 2 dGPU cards in a computer working with each other. Driver and Game engines have to be designed to use the chiplets properly and having consoles with this ability gets developers ready to support it later in PCs. PS4 iteration comes first to educate developers.
 

ShinySunny

Banned
Dec 15, 2017
1,730
I thought we kinda knew this unless PS/XB decides to jump ship on AMD...but I doubt it due to potential BC problem.
 

GameAddict411

Member
Oct 26, 2017
8,521
You should listen to the first 2 minutes of this Digital Foundry video. Rich Leadbetter makes the point that next gen can start in 2019 if either Sony or Microsoft decides to do so.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yaZQychDBE

Given all the cross-gen title hints at this E3, next gen is coming sooner rather than later.
It will seem financially irresponsible if either of them started in 2019. Sony is enjoying incredible success with the PS4, and probably want to ride the wave a little longer. MS already confirmed it's a 2020 release for their next system.
 

xolsec

Member
Feb 18, 2018
1,685
Lots of info in that article does not make sense:
1) Navi is not next generation, it uses Next generation memory
2) Your long time ago dates for semi-custom work by AMD and Sony using Navi features (my take) and a PS5 launch 2020-2021 when the Next Generation GPU after Navi ships as shown in the AMD slide does not make sense. A PS5 by definition should be using a next generation GPU not Navi which is still GCN.
3) Timing, as you pointed out, more likely points to a PS4 iteration coming holiday 2018 using Navi features added to the 2013 PS4 GCN GPU, this insures PS4 compatibility. This was already put forward attributed to the Semiaccurate next PS4.3 or PS5 article.

Micron GDDR6 in game consoles slide has game consoles starting to use GDDR6 late 2018
efficientgaming.eu has new 2019 power caps for a Media and a Gaming console. 80% of the consoles sold in 2019 have to comply with those power caps. The current PS4 and PS4 Pro can not comply with the Media Console power cap.
TSMC mentions gaming as one of 50 7nm projects they are forging 2H 2018

A Sony developer stressed PS4 iterations and Sony said a PS5 is coming 2021, what is coming Holiday 2018?

Sony didn't say the PS4 is coming in 2021.
 

bear force one

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
4,305
Orlando

Peterc

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
370
Na, dont believe this. I think we will hear something next year e3 and it will probably be released end 2021.
Also wonder how it will enhance games, i don't want the same gfx in 4k and 60fps. I want next gen gfx
 
Nov 30, 2017
1,563
Sorry but PS5 is more likely to release in 2017 than 2021!

Intersect

Those articles about 2021 IMO are horribly misinterpreting what Sony were saying at the IR day. Sony purposely said very little infact and didn't even show figures for FY 2019 (April 1st 2019-March 31st 2020). Why?



*slowly walks away from keyboard*

I think it would be great to have a PS5 in 2020, we know it won't be next year.

As for slowly walking away from keyboard I'm not following you. IMO having the power advantage seems to be a key part of MS strategy. They started announcing Scorpio 12 months out as more powerful than a Pro. Lots of sales were made because of the power advantage.

Not trying to offend anyone either with that. So anyway, hell yes I'll take a PS5 in 2020 and I hope it happens. If they could wait it out for a year if better cheaper tech could make it more future proof I'd be OK with it.

2018 is halfway over and were still getting fantastic looking games on both sides.

Whatever happens though wanna see a real jump. We used to get 15x power between consoles. If we get them next year its likely to be a 2 to 3x jump. With CPU being the biggest improvement and we all know how badly that needs to happen. Jaguar was almost outdated 5 years ago.
 

Hoxworth

Banned
May 21, 2018
302
It'd be fun if one of the makers went intel x86 with AMD GPU setup. Just so we can have endless arguments about single vs. multithreaded CPU performance next gen - this one was way too boring with CPUs being practically identical :P

Please no. We don't need more justification for developers to not properly multithread. It's 2018 and I still regularly buy games that seem to only support 2 cores in any meaningful way.
 

Socky

Member
Oct 27, 2017
361
Manchester, UK
My read from this E3 is that at this point next year everybody will talk openly about next gen.

You could already spot the cross and next gen announcements.

I agree. I was expecting 2020 until recently, but from a software POV, next-gen is already being openly discussed, Microsoft arguably just showed their biggest franchise running on a NG engine (probably cross-plat) and Sony just emptied the treasure chest this E3. Does anyone think next E3 there will be no NG games openly shown or that NG will not be a factor?

If
the hardware can be ready for 2019, I see no good reason to hold back on a new console besides lack of software, which I don't think will be a huge issue for Sony. MS too I can't see waiting until 2020 when they are already talking about NG and probably showing a next gen engine.

Edit: 2019 is not explicitly out. From the article:
  • Navi 10 will be the first Navi part to arrive and will be landing sometime in 2H 2019 or early 2020, depending on a couple of factors. The performance level of this part will be equivalent to Vega and it will be a small GPU based on 7nm.
  • Navi 14 will follow Navi 10 soon after
 
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Oct 28, 2017
4,589
interesting rumor and it holds a bit of credibility, if i remember correctly and probably already talked about, all design wins made with the PS4 made it in the new consumer APUs so i could see another team up like that

shit's gonna be hype
 

5Twist

Member
Oct 27, 2017
559
Microsoft announced Project Scorpio in June 2016 at E3. Xbox One X released November 2017.

That's 17 months or almost 1 and a half years, not 2 years and 4 months.
Though you do have to ask yourself does Microsoft's mentioning of the "XB2" during their conference count as an announcement? We didn't hear about 'Scarlett' until after their conference and it was based on what someone from Thurrott has heard. Details of Project Scorpio (and PS4 'Neo") were leaked prior to E3 2016 before Microsoft officially announced it on stage and Sony admitting that there was going to be an upgraded iteration of the PS4.
 

nextJin

Member
Mar 17, 2018
455
Georgia
I feel bad for console manufacturers sticking with AMD. CPU wise it's fine, but GPU? ..... yeaa.. long gone are the days of the 7000 series, that was a nice architecture for the days. Seems like AMD just bring something competitive on the table.

nVidia doesn't really have any interest in consoles other than pawning off Tegra. Sony won't go with them because of the debacle with PS3. They also won't be in a console because unless they somehow create a hybrid SoC with Intel/nVidia the thermals and over costs would be too high.

If nVidia had a respectable SoC design that had a powerful multi core x86 CPU and GPU with GTX 1070 performance at 150w they'd be an option but they don't because the margins are too low for them to care.

AMDs focus has been on integrated SoC designs for more than half a decade now and they've had desktop options for a decade now. Their Ryzen architecture is highly scalable and apparently all of their GPUs have been too since the 480 series.

Consoles are closed platforms so I don't see how it's a problem. Sony and Microsoft consoles have been fine with improvements still happening with newer games graphically.
 

Dekim

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,301
If the speculation are true that MS is going with multiple console skus out the gate, I see the PS5 falling squarely between the lower sku XB2 and the higher sku XB2. I don't think Sony is overly concerned about having the most powerful console, thought that will be a great PR win if they do. They would be very having pulling off a PS4 again--a well balanced cost in terms of power and cost. On the other hand, Phil Spencer made it clear that he wants those bragging rights with having the most powerful console on the market. It was pretty clear the resolution wars that kicked off this generation bothered the Xbox team a lot. They don't want a repeat of that again.

So, in terms of power and price, I'm expecting XB2 Plus ($499)>PS5($399)>XB2 Basic($329)
 

kpjolee

Member
Oct 25, 2017
154
Saying Navi is not GCN is pretty bold claim to make. But since this is WCCFTech, I am not holding my breath.
 

GameSeeker

Member
Oct 27, 2017
164
It will seem financially irresponsible if either of them started in 2019. Sony is enjoying incredible success with the PS4, and probably want to ride the wave a little longer. MS already confirmed it's a 2020 release for their next system.

It would be financially irresponsible of Sony to wait till 2020. In a technology driven business you have to replace your existing product on a regular cadence, not when you think it will stop selling. Apple doesn't go "the iPhone 8 is still selling well so there is no need for an iPhone 9 for a few years yet". Instead Apple delivers a new iPhone model every year and drives innovation. Similarly, Samsung announces new TV's every year at CES, car manufacturers announce new cars every year, etc. Every technology company delivers on a cycle.

When Sony was king of the hill with the PS2 they thought they could wait on PS3 and milk the PS2 some more. Microsoft beat them to market by a year and the PS3 never had the same level of success as the PS2. The PS4 has been very successful, but if Sony waits till 2020, they repeat the mistake made with PS3 and the PS5 won't achieve the same level of success.

PS5 is not just competing with Microsoft and Nintendo. It's competing with the PC gaming market, which improves every year. It's competing with the iOS/Android gaming market which improves every year. Sony (and Microsoft) can't afford to rest their laurels on 6 year old technology.
 

SharpX68K

Member
Nov 10, 2017
10,518
Chicagoland
I'm thinking the PS5 version of Navi will be Navi without the 64 CU limit (I'm expecting at least 72 or 80 CUs in PS5 GPU) plus some extra features Sony wanted.

Neither PS5 nor Xbox Scarlett family will launch until Holiday 2020.
 

Intersect

Banned
Nov 5, 2017
451
I'm thinking the PS5 version of Navi will be Navi without the 64 CU limit (I'm expecting at least 72 or 80 CUs in PS5 GPU) plus some extra features Sony wanted.

Neither PS5 nor Xbox Scarlett family will launch until Holiday 2020.
Maybe, consider that for PS4 Pro, Polaris features were added onto a core GCN GPU which allowed a semi-custom PS4 Pro and XB1X. Color compression allowed memory efficiency so memory was not as much of an issue with more efficiency/FPS.

If Navi requires 2X faster GDDR6 it either has more CUs or it has accelerators added to a core GCN GPU that further increases efficiency/FPS. If it's accelerators like with Polaris then we may still have BC and Navi is not next generation but might have some of the next generation features, only those that would not impact the GCN core.

Best case, a 2013 PS4 GCN core with Navi features running a game written for Navi features might be 2X faster (4TF), a PS4 Pro with Navi features 8TF. One of the two will be the base PS4 and it is not easy to determine which. I believe the Gaming Console will use the entire TDP of 150 watts whatever that will turn out to be.
 

dgrdsv

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,885
Navi 10, the smallest Navi GPU, would have less than 64 GCN CUs. Navi 20 could be two Navi 10 GPU chiplets with possibly more than 64 CUs. It's an extension of old AMD ability to have 2 dGPU cards in a computer working with each other.
Navi 10 is the largest Navi GPU, there is no Navi 20 so far and the "chiplets for the high end" rumor has been shot down by Wang himself a couple of days ago. Stop spreading misinformation.