I think this has a very high chance of happening even if this speculation turns out being incorrect. Given the absurd amount of Alan Wake stuff teased in Control, if Remedy's next project isn't AW Remastered + AW 2 then i'm going to lose any hope about it ever happening at all.
The PC version of Alan Wake still looks pretty good overall even today, i feel the only things that need an update are character models and facial animations -which weren't particularly impressive even back then.
I imagine Remedy's vision for Alan Wake 2 needs a big budget to be realised without significant compromises -- not huge but certainly much higher than that for Control -- and I fear the seemingly middling consumer response to the latter was the final nail in the coffin. I can only hope I'm sorely mistaken.