1. The last Anniversary game we got essentially already did that. Remaster/Remake are used interchangeably even on here depending on the person.
2. Plans could've been for this to hit sooner and the last expected timeframe was the 25th anniversary. The ending aspect could actually back this (Oh it was planned sooner but when that fell off it was changed as what was going on with the project was being determined)
3. The Nvidia Leak has a lot of code names and even with the rumored person themselves, stuff like that can change pretty easily.
I'm not saying you're wrong but your main concerns I feel are pretty easily explained. It's definitely still a rumor but would make a lot more sense as to why the 25th Anniversary was rather empty. They went all out celebrating it in every way except a new game and a canceled game originally being part of those plans (After potential earlier delays) would make a lot of sense.
1. I guess, it still feels weird for them to be calling it a remaster of Anniversary, though. It's just TR1 at this point. A remake of a remake is just another remake of the original thing. It feels like confused branding.
2. The tweet implies it's all connected though, "SQEX cancelled the project and the SOTTR original ending referencing Natla was cut" is one sentence. Also 2021 isn't that far from 2018, if this is a full remake with gameplay of the Survivor games, on track for 2021 makes sense if they started in 2018. If they just decided to delay it in 2018 then why cut the ending for Shadow? It'd have still been relevant.
3. Fair.
I dunno, I suppose it's possible this is true but I'm having a hard time believing the timeline. Unless there's evidence elsewhere on the Nvidia leak that some of it's information was as old as pre-2018, I'm gonna wait for any other confirmation or source before believing it as fact.