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September 2017 NPD - Destiny 2 & SNES Classic dominate
- Thread starter ZhugeEX
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Thanks Mat, can you give a .X% to that 25% or is it just 25.0%?
Hello Mat, we always talk on twitter.
At the risk of sounding dumb, what is "IB". Is it install base?
Thanks, as just 25.0% would be a small month result (I was getting ~370K) but 25.4% gives me ~37.3M as of Month 47, or ~480K in September.
MatPiscatella
With GAAS becoming more prevalent (which leads to higher digital share) and digital just continually taking up more of the initial day one sales, have you heard any rumblings of publishers cutting back on the retail inventory they put out there?
I would think that there is a little dance going on between the retail stores of the world and the publishers. For a publisher, they only want to print what they can convince a GameStop to buy and stock as this counts as a locked in sale for them and they are essentially indifferent to what happens after that in the store. If GameStop runs out of copies, potential players will either just download it (higher margin for the publisher) or go elsewhere to look for it. I doubt they want to do another printing post-launch.
Gamestop wants to limit the number of copies they buy in excess of pre-orders because they are then sitting on inventory. However, Gamestop needs the physical copies in excess of pre-orders so they can hope they sell more physical copies to prime the pump for future trade-ins.
Am I correct in thinking this is happening throughout the market?
With GAAS becoming more prevalent (which leads to higher digital share) and digital just continually taking up more of the initial day one sales, have you heard any rumblings of publishers cutting back on the retail inventory they put out there?
I would think that there is a little dance going on between the retail stores of the world and the publishers. For a publisher, they only want to print what they can convince a GameStop to buy and stock as this counts as a locked in sale for them and they are essentially indifferent to what happens after that in the store. If GameStop runs out of copies, potential players will either just download it (higher margin for the publisher) or go elsewhere to look for it. I doubt they want to do another printing post-launch.
Gamestop wants to limit the number of copies they buy in excess of pre-orders because they are then sitting on inventory. However, Gamestop needs the physical copies in excess of pre-orders so they can hope they sell more physical copies to prime the pump for future trade-ins.
Am I correct in thinking this is happening throughout the market?
OP
OP
Would someone be able to create a thread for the Microsoft earnings release?
https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2018-Q1/press-release-webcast
Would do it myself but I'm extremely busy at the moment.
Thanks!
https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2018-Q1/press-release-webcast
Would do it myself but I'm extremely busy at the moment.
Thanks!
Nice to see some old faces again .
D2 seem to do good even if it was not as huge as thought it would be .
D2 seem to do good even if it was not as huge as thought it would be .
Yep, this is a good way to think about it. Retail stores being super conservative on initial buys is one of the reasons pubs started pushing digital more, including the gold editions and digital pre-orders. Retail went from buying 2-3 weeks of supply at launch to buying days of supply and expecting publishers to take on the risk of carrying extra inventory for them.
Of course, pubs didn't want to do that either. Which is why sometimes it's really hard to find big games on disc at retail in weeks 2-3. Retailers order more after a big day 1, publishers then have to go order more to make, which takes 2-3 weeks. Pubs are happy if customers go digital instead, so it really only hurts retail.
It's all kind of a mess, and it's one of the reasons digital share is higher in week 1 than it is in week like 15.
Retail sales and share would be higher if they just ordered more. But they're more scared of too much inventory than too little.
This seems like the best thread for this:
Switch demand seems to have spiked heavily. On amazon.com, all Switch SKUs are sold out: the Mario bundle and the grey bundle are out of stock with no estimated date for return, and the neon sku is out of stock and coming back in stock on October 31th. Considering that stock will have increased a lot too, this anecdotally suggests that we might be facing absolutely huge demand this holiday.
Of course, it might just be a limited-time situation for SMO specifically and not carry on into the next weeks, so we should not try to conclude anything at this stage. I just wanted to share this observation.
Switch demand seems to have spiked heavily. On amazon.com, all Switch SKUs are sold out: the Mario bundle and the grey bundle are out of stock with no estimated date for return, and the neon sku is out of stock and coming back in stock on October 31th. Considering that stock will have increased a lot too, this anecdotally suggests that we might be facing absolutely huge demand this holiday.
Of course, it might just be a limited-time situation for SMO specifically and not carry on into the next weeks, so we should not try to conclude anything at this stage. I just wanted to share this observation.
I think we all kind of expected this. Honestly, I think this is just the beginning.
People have been laughing at big projections for Switch, and saying that it's nothing like the cultural phenomenon the Wii was. That's true... But it is always the holidays that sparks that type of demand in the west. The next few months will tell us more about the Switch's success and future trajectory than everything that's come before.
I've told everyone I know to buy the console before Odyssey hits. I think we are going back to constrained supply for the foreseeable future. If we're lucky, we might have a week or so reprieve in the middle of November, but I doubt it.
I can't wait to see October NPD results. Hopefully we can get predictions going.
So my new forecast has 4.2m Switch in the US by end 2017, which would be bigger than the time aligned first 10 months of Wii.
And yeah, just getting started.
What may (will?) push Switch ahead of Wii, and maybe other huge selling consoles over its life is Pokemon RPG. And what I mean here is that Pokemon RPG will be the catalyst for households to own more than one Nintendo Switch. So, the limitations of really having 1 console per HH are eliminated given the hybrid nature of Switch.
I don't think it's a limited time thing or fad. I think Switch will be the dominant platform in 2018 and, depending on when Pokemon RPG launches, continue to be so well into the next generation of PS/Xbox consoles... probably through 2021, depending on how Nintendo iterates on the Switch over time.
That's my take, could be wrong.
And yeah, just getting started.
What may (will?) push Switch ahead of Wii, and maybe other huge selling consoles over its life is Pokemon RPG. And what I mean here is that Pokemon RPG will be the catalyst for households to own more than one Nintendo Switch. So, the limitations of really having 1 console per HH are eliminated given the hybrid nature of Switch.
I don't think it's a limited time thing or fad. I think Switch will be the dominant platform in 2018 and, depending on when Pokemon RPG launches, continue to be so well into the next generation of PS/Xbox consoles... probably through 2021, depending on how Nintendo iterates on the Switch over time.
That's my take, could be wrong.
Matt are you aware of the recent news from Nintendo France expecting to sell 50% of their annual total in November/December. If that were to happen in NA where would that place the Switch in terms of FY compared to previous platforms?
Interesting take. I do feel a lot of people tend to underestimate the phenomenon that is Pokémon in terms of drawing people to a system: Pokémon was the major anime that aired during the childhood of the generation that is in its early 20s, and has an enormous pull on that generation, I feel.
About your prediction for Switch sales this year: everything depends on how well Nintendo can stock during the holidays, but I feel that Switch should be able to touch 5 million considering Nintendo of France's president's words:
Considering Switch was over 2 million as of the end of September, and October easily putting it over 2.5 million in my estimation, and assuming that a similar stock situation will be possible in US as Nintendo of France expects in France, then I would think 5 million should be doable.
Think you are correct that a mainline pokemon RPG's influence can't be understated.
Almost every new gen entry has sold around 15m or more. And every revision selling in the ball park of 7-10m. The Wii never got a real Pokemon title. As impressive as the Switches numbers have been we might just be seeing the beginning if the history of that franchise carries over. And Nintendo revises the system in similar ways to other handhelds giving more insentive to buy another one for people who already have one like they did with the DS/3DS.
Wow I had not seen that... and if Zedark's back of envelope math is in the ballpark, that'd be one amazing and jaw dropping result.
When talking about Destiny 1 vs Destiny 2 performance it's important to know that NPD is reporting Revenue now and consider 3 or 4 probably contributing factors here.
Destiny 1 on last gen launched at a retail price of just $49 instead of $59 for the Ps4 and Xbox One edition.
With about 2.7 million retail sales and 32% of them being last gen in the opening month, that is a revenue difference of already ~8.5 million.
I hate to use this term, but Destiny 2 has probably a higher Hardcore Audience compared to Destiny 1.
People who stuck with Destiny over the years are likely hooked and more likely to buy the Season Pass upfront and buy higher priced Digital Editions.
Higher priced Digital Editions of the game; If you bought Destiny 1 at retail and the Season Pass from Xbox Live or PSN, NPD counted the game sale at $60 and the Season Pass is just a DLC.
Now with all those Deluxe and Ultimate Editions all of the revenue is accounted towards the Game and not only as a DLC. The ASP is going up that way.
And now i have to ask Mat if this is a thing, or not. Do the participant Publisher report Digital Sales retrospectively to NPD?
So did you get the Digital Sales of Destiny 1 from 3 years ago to compare them to the Digital + Physical Sales of Destiny 2 today?
Otherwise it would be a comparison of Destiny 1 Revenue (physical only) vs Destiny 2 Revenue Digital + Physical
All that said i believe Destiny 2 is down on a unit base over its predecessor, but not by much and nothing major like a >50% decline in Physical Sales would suggest.
But i also believe Destiny 2 will make Blizzard more money nevertheless and they'll be happy about the initial performance at least.
Staying power will be the determination. Destiny 1 had pretty decent legs...
I read that, too and i'm not sure what to think about it.
If we assume this would be a similar ratio World Wide - and people already expecting Japan to be close to 4 million Switch in the first year alone, that is just a huge number.
I don't think they would have any problem to achieve that goal on the demand side, but I'm very sceptical on the supply side.
Switch should be at between 7 and 8 million units shipped at the end of September.
50% of that just in the Holiday Quarter is a very big task for the production line.
2 million units a month is not even enough for that. And my personal bias is 6 million at maximum for the supply side
Destiny 1 on last gen launched at a retail price of just $49 instead of $59 for the Ps4 and Xbox One edition.
With about 2.7 million retail sales and 32% of them being last gen in the opening month, that is a revenue difference of already ~8.5 million.
I hate to use this term, but Destiny 2 has probably a higher Hardcore Audience compared to Destiny 1.
People who stuck with Destiny over the years are likely hooked and more likely to buy the Season Pass upfront and buy higher priced Digital Editions.
Higher priced Digital Editions of the game; If you bought Destiny 1 at retail and the Season Pass from Xbox Live or PSN, NPD counted the game sale at $60 and the Season Pass is just a DLC.
Now with all those Deluxe and Ultimate Editions all of the revenue is accounted towards the Game and not only as a DLC. The ASP is going up that way.
And now i have to ask Mat if this is a thing, or not. Do the participant Publisher report Digital Sales retrospectively to NPD?
So did you get the Digital Sales of Destiny 1 from 3 years ago to compare them to the Digital + Physical Sales of Destiny 2 today?
Otherwise it would be a comparison of Destiny 1 Revenue (physical only) vs Destiny 2 Revenue Digital + Physical
All that said i believe Destiny 2 is down on a unit base over its predecessor, but not by much and nothing major like a >50% decline in Physical Sales would suggest.
But i also believe Destiny 2 will make Blizzard more money nevertheless and they'll be happy about the initial performance at least.
Staying power will be the determination. Destiny 1 had pretty decent legs...
I read that, too and i'm not sure what to think about it.
If we assume this would be a similar ratio World Wide - and people already expecting Japan to be close to 4 million Switch in the first year alone, that is just a huge number.
I don't think they would have any problem to achieve that goal on the demand side, but I'm very sceptical on the supply side.
Switch should be at between 7 and 8 million units shipped at the end of September.
50% of that just in the Holiday Quarter is a very big task for the production line.
2 million units a month is not even enough for that. And my personal bias is 6 million at maximum for the supply side
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We also don't know by how much they've surpassed 2 million.
In terms of October its likely going to be somewhere in the region of 400-500K but we should have a better idea in a few days. Once we know how much they shipped for Q3 and see how much they sell in Japan for the SMO launch. We should get an idea about what to expect for the October NPD. If they shipped around 3 million WW for Q3 then the digitimes article about doubling the production to 2 million per month looks more and more legitimate.
Yeah, that's why I was caught off guard by your forecast since it looked very conservative - inline with the original Nintendo forecast of 10 million for FY, which I think will be beaten soundly.
True, I wanted to be conservative and still show 5 million comes out mathematically. I think October might be a little better than 500k even, maybe 600k-700k (some anecdotal evidence for this is the fact that Switch SKUs on amazon monthly ranking are way higher than the previous month, and have an extra sku to boot). From there, I would estimate the numbers for the end of October to be about 2.8 million, which, if doubled, would mean a number for the end of the year of 5.6 million. That may be a little bit high, but I do expect Switch to end up in the 5M-5.5M bracket.
+500K seems way to good to happen only because Nintendo can spread that out between Black Friday and Christmas. Anywhere between 350K and 400K is what I'm expecting for October, with >100K Mario bundles being sold. November will be when Nintendo starts sending more Switch's than before.
I've always assumed that they'd sell around 4 million in Japan this year, basically the Switch atm is slightly behind 3DS launch aligned and with a major launch next week it will close that gap to under 100K. Its unlikely we'd see the Switch overtake 3DS this year launch aligned but it won't finish that far off.
In terms of the 2 million units per month, that's obviously something that needed to occur a few months prior to Q4. What is being produced in December is unlikely to get shipped WW before January. Stockpiling an additional 3 million units from Q3 for Q4 is possible. It's a good sign that Nintendo France seems pretty confident they'd have 400K units for a 10 week period that gives us confidence that we might see 40-50% of annual sales being made in Q4 in other countries as well.
Super Mario Odyssey is now the #1 software on Amazon's 2017 chart, and #4 overall. https://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2017/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar
Going to be a huge launch in October.
Going to be a huge launch in October.
All digital data goes back to 2012. So all comparisons are apples:apples.
Could be, certainly. And you're right, I am being a little conservative, if only because the Switch is quickly approaching outlier status in terms of sales and I don't like forecasting outliers. Inherent bias of mine.
I know this is just for NA but do we have a estimate of how many they've sold WW?
All our publicly reported numbers are US only, although we do track across the Americas. Just an FYI.
No idea on WW. Guessing the next earnings call will give an update.
How many big titles are you expecting Nintendo to churn out in 2018 in order to be the dominant platform of next year? Because it seems like Pokemon/Metroid (The only big titles we know so far) may or may not make it into 2018 in the US, depending on how far the development process is at.
So nice to have your input Mat, Thank you! Really looking forward to being a part of this great community.
I think Soony Xbone Uhh is going to be right on his Destiny 2 thoughts that units sold will be down vs. Destiny 1 over time.
Here is what we know so far:
Sept. 15: Activision press release "Destiny 2 surpassed the original's records for engagement and digital sales in launch week."
(one would think if total week one unit sales sold were above Destiny 1 the company would brag about it)
Oct. 13: NPD physical data U.S. physical game sales of "Destiny 2" declined more than 50 percent in the month of September vs. first month of Destiny 1
Oct. 23: "Destiny 2 combined consumer spend across packaged and digital also exceeded the launch month sales of the previous title in the franchise, Destiny, which released in September 2014," from some NPD guy named Mat Piscatella.
Oct. 24: Activision press release: "The console game, released on September 6, was recognized as the best-selling console game of 2017 in the United States to date with less than one month of sales by The NPD Group yesterday"
(nothing on unit sales increase over Destiny 1 even after the Oct. 23 "consumer spend ... exceeded" NPD comment)
The best theory I believe, agreeing with Soony Xbone Uhh, is a lot of hard-core Destiny fans front-end loaded their spending for the $100 Destiny 2 Digital Deluxe Edition, knowing they were going to want the expansion packs anyway. That explains the "exceeded" of consumer spend and lack of bragging about units sales being up.
Regarding digital, I do think Destiny is a special one-off. There is no doubt digital sales mix is increasing 5-10% percentage points annually, but Destiny players are special breed, trained to buy digital after playing hundreds of hours of Destiny 1. Plus all the Destiny 1 expansions were "digital" in a sense they were download codes not physical disc authentication, thereby not offering any trade-in value like other physical authenticated games, which is the main benefit of physical.
Here is what we know so far:
Sept. 15: Activision press release "Destiny 2 surpassed the original's records for engagement and digital sales in launch week."
(one would think if total week one unit sales sold were above Destiny 1 the company would brag about it)
Oct. 13: NPD physical data U.S. physical game sales of "Destiny 2" declined more than 50 percent in the month of September vs. first month of Destiny 1
Oct. 23: "Destiny 2 combined consumer spend across packaged and digital also exceeded the launch month sales of the previous title in the franchise, Destiny, which released in September 2014," from some NPD guy named Mat Piscatella.
Oct. 24: Activision press release: "The console game, released on September 6, was recognized as the best-selling console game of 2017 in the United States to date with less than one month of sales by The NPD Group yesterday"
(nothing on unit sales increase over Destiny 1 even after the Oct. 23 "consumer spend ... exceeded" NPD comment)
The best theory I believe, agreeing with Soony Xbone Uhh, is a lot of hard-core Destiny fans front-end loaded their spending for the $100 Destiny 2 Digital Deluxe Edition, knowing they were going to want the expansion packs anyway. That explains the "exceeded" of consumer spend and lack of bragging about units sales being up.
Regarding digital, I do think Destiny is a special one-off. There is no doubt digital sales mix is increasing 5-10% percentage points annually, but Destiny players are special breed, trained to buy digital after playing hundreds of hours of Destiny 1. Plus all the Destiny 1 expansions were "digital" in a sense they were download codes not physical disc authentication, thereby not offering any trade-in value like other physical authenticated games, which is the main benefit of physical.
If anyone has this data, it will be interesting to see the major step-ups in units sales for the second iteration of major franchise hits.
Assassin's Creed 2 over the first Assassin's creed.
Modern Warfare 2 over Call of Duty Modern Warfare.
Mass Effect 2 over Mass Effect 1.
Red Dead Redemption over Red Dead Revolver
Grand Theft Auto 4 over Grand Theft Auto 3
I believe publishers and movie studio for that matter, want to see big sales increases in the 2nd major game/movie in a franchise. Flat or small sales growth is not what they are hoping for.
Assassin's Creed 2 over the first Assassin's creed.
Modern Warfare 2 over Call of Duty Modern Warfare.
Mass Effect 2 over Mass Effect 1.
Red Dead Redemption over Red Dead Revolver
Grand Theft Auto 4 over Grand Theft Auto 3
I believe publishers and movie studio for that matter, want to see big sales increases in the 2nd major game/movie in a franchise. Flat or small sales growth is not what they are hoping for.
Mory's Villagers
I went to buy Odyssey at Target after work. It was around 8 am. The guy looked about 20 years old and needed a haircut. He said he'd only Odyssey today and not AC or Wolf so far.
therefore I estimate Odyssey will open at 5m based on simple multipliers.
Mory's musings.
probably 3-4, like most years.
I envision 3-4 happening out of these: AC Switch, Smash port, 2D Mario, Metroid, Pokemon, Retro's game
I'm pretty confident in AC and 2D Mario.
I think Retro's game is a lock as well but who knows if it'll be big
I think either Metroid or pokemon will happen, but not both.
Then there's mid-big games already confirmed like FE and Kirby, which sell well.
Do you guys remember when the tie ratio for Zelda and Switch console units at launch was basically 100%. Haha. Mario probably going to be like that too. 100% of the Switch owners I know buying Mario this week.
I wonder if the Gamestop Powerpass thing (I know they did that 2.5 month Summer Swap before) is going to get traction: http://www.shacknews.com/article/101882/magazine-ad-reveals-gamestops-pre-owned-game-rental-service
I mean 6 months unlimited gaming and you keep the used game at the end for $60. Geez. Talk about a hail mary type move.
I mean 6 months unlimited gaming and you keep the used game at the end for $60. Geez. Talk about a hail mary type move.
The attachrate was actually above 100%
You can also edit postings, double posts on purpose are generally not welcome on Message Boards
This is just for Xbox 360 and PS3 versions.
Assassin's Creed: 1,357,000
Assassin's Creed 2: 1,243,100
Modern Warfare: 2,014,000
Modern Warfare 2: 6,070,000
Mass Effect: 473,000
Mass Effect 2: 572,100
Red Dead Revolver: 222,146
Red Dead Redemption: 1,513,000
Grand Theft Auto San Andreas: 2,053,983
Grand Theft Auto IV: 2,850,000
I couldn't find GTA3 data so I went with SA.
Great stuff. Thanks man. I think it proves my point, sequels are supposed to be up HUGE generally.
Is great that Mario & Rabbids charted, that game deserves all the sales it can get.
Did Samus Returns sell well compared to previous Metroid entries? I'm not sure about it.
Did Samus Returns sell well compared to previous Metroid entries? I'm not sure about it.
I don't want you to reveal any proprietary information or break NDAs, but could you give us a loose hint about the Ps4 and Xbox One gap this month?
The Gap in June, July and August was substantial and Xbox One by its own was down considerably in roughly 30% for June and July and even close to 50% in August (Xbox One S release last year).
So maybe just answer this one very vague question; Did Xbox One relatively better in September thanks to notable third party releases and free game promotions, or was the performance pretty much in the ballpark of the last bleak 3 months?
Thanks in advance. If inappropriate just ignore the question
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