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September 2017 NPD - Destiny 2 & SNES Classic dominate

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phantomx

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Oct 27, 2017
1,801
A variety of reasons to the switch from strictly units to revenue. I'm sure Mat could give further details but I've got to pass out now. Hopefully I've helped explain the ranking a little bit and if someone else doesn't expand on what I've posted until tomorrow I'll come back and break things down more.

In regards to your original question, Destiny 2 is still the highest performing launch of 2017 in both units as well as revenue
Yes, I appreciate you putting up with me :)
 

Nirolak

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,660
The debut Steam concurrent users on Wolfenstein is only 14K, which is not astonishingly encouraging compared to games like Shadow of War (50K), Deus Ex 4 (52K), or even Dishonored 2 (22K) or Prey (25K).

Mind, it could pick up over the weekend, and it’s presumably a large file size title, but given that PC was a big part of the first game, I’m concerned how it might be doing.

I guess we’ll get more accurate SteamSpy numbers in a few days and then the UK sales on Monday.
 

Rainrir

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
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Oct 25, 2017
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The debut Steam concurrent users on Wolfenstein is only 14K, which is not astonishingly encouraging compared to games like Shadow of War (50K), Deus Ex 4 (52K), or even Dishonored 2 (22K) or Prey (25K).

Mind, it could pick up over the weekend, and it’s presumably a large file size title, but given that PC was a big part of the first game, I’m concerned how it might be doing.

I guess we’ll get more accurate SteamSpy numbers in a few days and then the UK sales on Monday.
My gods. Could it be that the overlap between self-identified Nazis, and the crowd that usually plays AAA western releases like Wolfenstein, be larger than any of us thought?

Or maybe it is the SP curse, or maybe it is all these GaaS games monopolizing a gamer's time?


Or perhaps Mario has taken up all the spotlight..Even for those that don't play or care for Mario, just by sheer volume of buzz that drowned out whatever marketing Wolfenstein might have..

The game seems to be critically acclaimed. I can't see why it is bombing beyond marketing issues.
 

Nirolak

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,660
My gods. Could it be that the overlap between self-identified Nazis, and the crowd that usually plays AAA western releases like Wolfenstein, be larger than any of us thought?

Or maybe it is the SP curse, or maybe it is all these GaaS games monopolizing a gamer's time?


Or perhaps Mario has taken up all the spotlight..Even for those that don't play or care for Mario, just by sheer volume of buzz that drowned out whatever marketing Wolfenstein might have..

The game seems to be critically acclaimed. I can't see why it is bombing beyond marketing issues.
Well, assuming it is struggling, I see a few factors:

1.) It released a few days after Destiny 2 on PC, which is going to massively favor Destiny 2. Warframe’s Plains of Eidolon update just released recently too.

2.) On consoles, it’s out the same day as Mario and Assassin’s Creed, which are two very high profile singleplayer games for that audience.

3.) More broadly, it’s sandwiched between Destiny, Call of Duty, and Battlefront on the shooter front, and all the big sports titles to boot just in terms of available money going around.

4.) It’s a singleplayer, level based shooter for $60 in 2017.
 

RexNovis

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,428
I’ve had a really busy few days so I’m still catching up with this thread but I just wanted to post this now as a PSA for all of us here in sales threads:

Just as a general rule guys it is never ok to beg people for inside information. They will tell you what they can/want. Asking for more form them than they are comfortable giving potentially puts them in a compromising position and that is not something any of us want.

Especially of first game/groundbreaking games in a series. (e.g. GTA 1 and 2 were completely different beasts from GTA3, so even through GTA3 is a sequel, it was a paradigm shift for the series.) General reason is that it takes a while for new games to gain traction. They may sell a lot in the end, but they don't start off juggernauts. Sequels of these well-received first/groundbreaking games, however, have HYPE, and that makes the intial sales much, much higher. Whether LTD sales increase is another issue, but initial sales of sequels of well-received games generally do better, yep. :)
Great to see you here Donny!
 

Rainrir

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Well, assuming it is struggling, I see a few factors:

1.) It released a few days after Destiny 2 on PC, which is going to massively favor Destiny 2. Warframe’s Plains of Eidolon update just released recently too.

2.) On consoles, it’s out the same day as Mario and Assassin’s Creed, which are two very high profile singleplayer games for that audience. However, I wonder if there is huge audience overlap between Mario on one side and Wolfie+AC on the other.

3.) More broadly, it’s sandwiched between Destiny, Call of Duty, and Battlefront on the shooter front, and all the big sports titles to boot just in terms of available money going around.

4.) It’s a singleplayer, level based shooter for $60 in 2017.
Well looks like we are somewhat on agreement on this.

1) GaaS Destiny 2 and by virtue a bigger game. In the past back to back AAA releases don't affect each other too badly because they are short. GaaS AAA with lots of content and long tail is upending that balance.

2) Mario, yeah. AC performance is unknown, but lots of people are saying hype is subdued.

3) I am not sure on this one. A stacked period would affect all games equally, we are seeing a specific collapse despite this being an established brand.

4) So SP curse. Tough times indeed for SP games.
 
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bigbaldwolf86

Member
Oct 27, 2017
164
Good to see something different like Mario & Rabbids do well. Nintendo should listen to those SNES classic numbers. Create supply for the demand and just let the money roll in
 

RexNovis

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,428
The debut Steam concurrent users on Wolfenstein is only 14K, which is not astonishingly encouraging compared to games like Shadow of War (50K), Deus Ex 4 (52K), or even Dishonored 2 (22K) or Prey (25K).

Mind, it could pick up over the weekend, and it’s presumably a large file size title, but given that PC was a big part of the first game, I’m concerned how it might be doing.

I guess we’ll get more accurate SteamSpy numbers in a few days and then the UK sales on Monday.
This would be really sad. I had high hopes for Wolfenstein 2’s sales. Especially with the way their minimalist marketing has been knocking it out of the park and how the first game had such great legs off positive WOM I had fully expected to see the sequel outperform the first title by a large margin. I sincerely hope it performs well.
 

shimon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,752
I went to Best Buy last night for the 9pm Odyssey release (AC:O and Wolfenstein released then, too), and there were about 40 people in front of me. 1 person bought AC:O (PS4), 1 person bought Wolfenstein, and the rest bought Odyssey and/or a new Switch. I was shocked at the demand, not only for Odyssey, but also for the Switch on a Thursday night. I expect big things for the system, this month and this upcoming holiday.
Yeah not surprised at all. Nintendo is killing it at the moment.

The debut Steam concurrent users on Wolfenstein is only 14K, which is not astonishingly encouraging compared to games like Shadow of War (50K), Deus Ex 4 (52K), or even Dishonored 2 (22K) or Prey (25K).

Mind, it could pick up over the weekend, and it’s presumably a large file size title, but given that PC was a big part of the first game, I’m concerned how it might be doing.

I guess we’ll get more accurate SteamSpy numbers in a few days and then the UK sales on Monday.
Aww man,that sucks :(
 

Deleted member 2785

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I'm glad Mat is here but I feel like he's here just to make sure we don't leak anything lol
You think I need to post here and engage as much as I do to look for leaks? And given that a majority of people that did decide to post proprietary info at great personal risk in the past were run off by the community itself in its selfish and incessant demand for more and more, I don't think that spending the time I do to just look for leakers would be good ROI.

I'm here because my thinking is challenged, there are smart people here and it's fun. I give enough information out that if you're smart enough you can figure the rest out. If you're not smart enough, there are others who are.

Yes, I appreciate you putting up with me :)
They're all good questions. And it's complicated.

I'd love nothing more than to include all publishers, all game and DLC/MTX sales, and everything else to into the monthly release.

Unfortunately, we only have agreements in place with certain publishers to include certain points of information.

No DLC or MTX is currently included in the monthly spend included in the media release. The beta program for DLC/MTX continues and I hope it will be included in the future. We also continue to have conversations to expand the coverage of full game digital downloads, and I expect big news on that front in the near future.

We continue to look at ways we can adjust the monthly release to include sales of untracked products using extrapolation methodology. However, it would be much better if we had a full sample, so that continues to be the goal.

To answer your question, yes of course MTX spending is important, as are the other categories not covered in the media release.

We construct a quarterly report called Games Market Dynamics, where we project for total market including things like MTX, Mobile, Subscriptions, etc. and construct a total annual spend number for the Entertainment Software Association that releases each January.

So consider the media release a snapshot which includes 100% of physical retail along with a coverage percentage of digital full game sales across PSN, XBL and STEAM. The software market is bigger than is being reported because we are missing publishers, distribution platforms like eShop, Origin, Battle.net and uPlay and DLC/MTX.
 
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Rymuth

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,025
This would be really sad. I had high hopes for Wolfenstein 2’s sales. Especially with the way their minimalist marketing has been knocking it out of the park and how the first game had such great legs off positive WOM I had fully expected to see the sequel outperform the first title by a large margin. I sincerely hope it performs well.
Bethesda, in general, seems to be in a bad streak. Every game they've released lately has had underwhelming sales.
 

Backlog

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4
The debut Steam concurrent users on Wolfenstein is only 14K, which is not astonishingly encouraging compared to games like Shadow of War (50K), Deus Ex 4 (52K), or even Dishonored 2 (22K) or Prey (25K).

Mind, it could pick up over the weekend, and it’s presumably a large file size title, but given that PC was a big part of the first game, I’m concerned how it might be doing.

I guess we’ll get more accurate SteamSpy numbers in a few days and then the UK sales on Monday.
I, for one, have definitely put on Wolf2 on the back burner, due to (a) my ever-present backlog, (b) that backlog now contains Odyssey, and (c) I had figured I could wait until next year due to reasons (a) and (b) and pick it up on Switch. It's odd to me that I might double-dipping and buying the PC version earlier than expected primarily to support a Beth single-player game on PC.
 
Oct 27, 2017
8,407
In terms of Wolfenstein, I have a feeling the marketing many people praised was a bit too clever for its own good. It got people talking about it, but they were talking about the marketing itself, and its politics, not necessarily the game and why you would want to go out and spend sixty dollars on it. A full-priced AAA single player game is a weird value proposition in 2017, despite what a lot of people say in GaaS threads, and maybe "you get to kill Nazis" wasn't a strong enough hook to get large numbers to open up their (Steam) wallets.

It's possible the campaign just didn't sell the game as well as many of us thought it did. But obviously it's early, and it seems like the game has pretty good word of mouth so maybe it'll improve.

edit: In looking at the OT, it's possible the game doesn't have as good word of mouth as I thought.
 
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Nirolak

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,660
In terms of Wolfenstein, I have a feeling the marketing many people praised was a bit too clever for its own good. It got people talking about it, but they were talking about the marketing itself, and its politics, not necessarily the game and why you would want to go out and spend sixty dollars on it. A full-priced AAA single player game is a weird value proposition in 2017, despite what a lot of people say in GaaS threads, and maybe "you get to kill Nazis" wasn't a strong enough hook to get large numbers to open up their (Steam) wallets.

It's possible the campaign just didn't sell the game as well as many of us thought it did. But obviously it's early, and it seems like the game has pretty good word of mouth so maybe it'll improve.

edit: In looking at the OT, it's possible the game doesn't have as good word of mouth as I thought.
With Doom and Wolfenstein, they’re also games that appeared to do the vast majority of their business (like 80%+ of unit sales) at $30 or less, so that seems to be about what people are willing to pay for something like this.

I do imagine that becomes an issue from a financial perspective though, especially at retail, since you need to sell a lot more units to break even at lower prices. Generally you’re aiming to do quite a bit more than break even when you’re spending $40+ million on development as well, since otherwise you wouldn’t be taking all this risk, and just make more money on bank interest or the stock market.
 

Rick Martel

Member
Oct 27, 2017
476
Wow no Forza 7 on that list?? Shame, I've actually really been enjoying it.. (Glad to say I'm one of those who also grabbed a Super NES Classic in person, as well as Battlefield 1 lol)
 

Elandyll

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
4,002
Glad to see Donny is back with us!

I feel bad about Woldenstein2... Hope it will have long legs and that the early Steam report doesn't paint the whole picture.

Been a bit strapped for cash lately, but I definitely plan on getting it, even if only to support single player games with a strong campaign.
 
Oct 27, 2017
8,407
With Doom and Wolfenstein, they’re also games that appeared to do the vast majority of their business (like 80%+ of unit sales) at $30 or less, so that seems to be about what people are willing to pay for something like this.

I do imagine that becomes an issue from a financial perspective though, especially at retail, since you need to sell a lot more units to break even at lower prices. Generally you’re aiming to do quite a bit more than break even when you’re spending $40+ million on development as well, since otherwise you wouldn’t be taking all this risk, and just make more money on bank interest or the stock market.
That's interesting. So maybe it's not so much the death of the AAA single player games, but more that some of these (linear) ones need to be priced more as if they're expensive indie games. But as you say, the return on investment for a $30 AAA title seems pretty bad, so it's hard to imagine that taking off. Pretty tough situation.
 

KS93

Member
Oct 26, 2017
643
There haven't been many things to be happy about this year, but Nintendo's surprise comeback is a wonderful thing to behold.
It's well deserved. Nintendo were completely coasting through the Wii / Wii U era in my opinion. It feels like they've now brought some serious imagination, quality and ideas into their games, and it's excellent it's paying them dividends. I hope it encourages the company to keep at it.
 

Channel5News

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Oct 27, 2017
5,488
Los Angeles, CA
It's well deserved. Nintendo were completely coasting through the Wii / Wii U era in my opinion. It feels like they've now brought some serious imagination, quality and ideas into their games, and it's excellent it's paying them dividends. I hope it encourages the company to keep at it.
Actually, on a creative level Nintendo knocked it out of the park with their Wii U software, but the high cost of the hardware prevented them from ever gaining ground. They needed a hard reset, and they stuck the landing beautifully. If it weren't for their rollback on VC and byzantine online policies, the Switch would be perfect.
 

John Harker

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Oct 27, 2017
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Santa Destroy
So are there any different policies here that would affect me doing my thing? No one ever bothered me once in all those years before at the other forum, but figured I’d check first. Not sure the awareness level of my.... style.
 

Benji

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Oct 25, 2017
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With Doom and Wolfenstein, they’re also games that appeared to do the vast majority of their business (like 80%+ of unit sales) at $30 or less, so that seems to be about what people are willing to pay for something like this.
Correct. A lot of people praise DOOM success (and it was successful) but the vast bulk of sales did not come in at anywhere near the $60 price point
 

Dr. Mario

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,335
Netherlands
Unless you think the game is a slow-burn, week 1 is the right time to look at the performance of a game. And imo Wolfenstein is not a slow-burn when it comes to sales.
Aren't the day one sales more of a console thing though? I thought PC sales had a more muted start but a much longer tail, being as people wait for Steam sales, PC is bigger in less wealthy markets and everyone has a backlog due to bundles.
 
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ZhugeEX

ZhugeEX

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Oct 24, 2017
3,003
So are there any different policies here that would affect me doing my thing? No one ever bothered me once in all those years before at the other forum, but figured I’d check first. Not sure the awareness level of my.... style.
Hi John.

Good to see you over here. This forum operates like any other forum on the internet.

We construct a quarterly report called Games Market Dynamics, where we project for total market including things like MTX, Mobile, Subscriptions, etc. and construct a total annual spend number for the Entertainment Software Association that releases each January.

So consider the media release a snapshot which includes 100% of physical retail along with a coverage percentage of digital full game sales across PSN, XBL and STEAM. The software market is bigger than is being reported because we are missing publishers, distribution platforms like eShop, Origin, Battle.net and uPlay and DLC/MTX.
Hi Mat,

Does the NPD group have any plans to project for total digital full game software revenue in the public media release or will digital still be limited to the digital leader panel?

It'd be great if we could have more of an understanding of just how big digital full game downloads are in Q4 2017. Perhaps projected full game digital revenue is something you could add alongside the current metrics?
 
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ZeoVGM

Member
Oct 25, 2017
24,212
Providence / Boston
I don't necessarily think that poor Steam sales will translate to poor PS4/XB1 sales.

If there's a history of that, feel free to let me know. I've just never really seen that.
 

Deleted member 2785

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Does the NPD group have any plans to project for total digital full game software revenue in the public media release or will digital still be limited to the digital leader panel?
Possible. I keep playing with different models and methodology but at some point it becomes an extrap subject to potentially high range of error. Data given now is incomplete but completely accurate for what is counted.

So, I could extrap for market, but then wouldn’t I also want to extrap top 10 lists? If so, how do I do that with accuracy? It’s a very difficult problem.

Working on it, but numbers are hard sometimes.
 
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ZhugeEX

ZhugeEX

Senior Analyst at Niko Partners
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Oct 24, 2017
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Possible. I keep playing with different models and methodology but at some point it becomes an extrap subject to potentially high range of error. Data given now is incomplete but completely accurate for what is counted.

So, I could extrap for market, but then wouldn’t I also want to extrap top 10 lists? If so, how do I do that with accuracy? It’s a very difficult problem.

Working on it, but numbers are hard sometimes.
I suppose you could release two different numbers. One for the digital leader panel and one that is projected for the total market.

I personally think it'd help a lot of users here have a better understanding regarding digital full game software spend / share.
 

Abdiel

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Oct 28, 2017
157
Hey all - Seems like the gang is all here, I don't think I could keep myself away for long. It's good to see everyone, the old faces, and the new ones.
 

Soony Xbone Uhh

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Am i the only one with possibly sub 4 million for the Switch this year due to supply issues?
I also don't believe in 400k + for October, but without knowing the September numbers exactly it's a hard guess

estimated 480k for XB1 and PS4 combined from Welfare
Switch + SNES Mini + 3DS < 930k (nearly 2/3 of total hardware units sold)
last gen Hardware is a unknown here and i went for basically 0 units across X360, Ps3, WiiU and Vita. A combined 10k would not make much of a difference anyway...

SNES Mini outsold Switch by units and Ps4 outgrossed the Switch
< 400k for the Switch in September is a given imho
 

v_iHuGi

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Oct 28, 2017
5,155
November is gonna be absolutely HUGE holly balls, 5 million consoles sold incoming!

Ps4 WW2 Bundle
Ps4 Star Wars BattleFront 2 Bundles (Pro and Slim)
Xbox One X Launch
Xbox One S and Ps4 massive Black Friday discounts
SNES keeps on going
Nintendo Switch will keep outselling everything if supply is available
Nintendo 3DS will still pull respectable numbers
Nintendo might do massive Black Friday deals on Switch like a bundle with Mario or MK for 299.
 

Nirolak

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,660
The debut Steam concurrent users on Wolfenstein is only 14K, which is not astonishingly encouraging compared to games like Shadow of War (50K), Deus Ex 4 (52K), or even Dishonored 2 (22K) or Prey (25K).

Mind, it could pick up over the weekend, and it’s presumably a large file size title, but given that PC was a big part of the first game, I’m concerned how it might be doing.

I guess we’ll get more accurate SteamSpy numbers in a few days and then the UK sales on Monday.
So to follow up on Wolfenstein a bit more, its weekend peak (barring a huge surge today) is 16K, which is not meaningfully higher.

By comparison, Assassin’s Creed Origins is at 42K, with the series previously capping out at 16K (AC3 and AC4), and the last game capping out in the 3-4K range. This is despite being on uPlay, which actually has a pretty good userbase.
 

Deleted member 2785

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November is gonna be absolutely HUGE holly balls, 5 million consoles sold incoming!

Ps4 WW2 Bundle
Ps4 Star Wars BattleFront 2 Bundles (Pro and Slim)
Xbox One X Launch
Xbox One S and Ps4 massive Black Friday discounts
SNES keeps on going
Nintendo Switch will keep outselling everything if supply is available
Nintendo 3DS will still pull respectable numbers
Nintendo might do massive Black Friday deals on Switch like a bundle with Mario or MK for 299.
...Along with a revitalized Call of Duty and a new Star Wars Battlefront near the release of the new SW film.

Should be a remarkable 4th quarter for the industry and retailers, right when they need this help the most.
 

Mikey Jr.

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,808
So to follow up on Wolfenstein a bit more, its weekend peak (barring a huge surge today) is 16K, which is not meaningfully higher.

By comparison, Assassin’s Creed Origins is at 42K, with the series previously capping out at 16K (AC3 and AC4), and the last game capping out in the 3-4K range. This is despite being on uPlay, which actually has a pretty good userbase.
Does having almost no DRM day 0 not factor at all?
Consoles will save Wolfenstein.
 

Raijinto

Member
Oct 28, 2017
7,554
Anyone got figures for Nov/Dec in relation specifically to the Wii? How did Galaxy sell across both months too? Did Twilight Princess get a notable boost in sales? Was stock a big issue (I assume it was)?

Thanks in advance!
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,093
Am i the only one with possibly sub 4 million for the Switch this year due to supply issues?
I also don't believe in 400k + for October, but without knowing the September numbers exactly it's a hard guess

estimated 480k for XB1 and PS4 combined from Welfare
Switch + SNES Mini + 3DS < 930k (nearly 2/3 of total hardware units sold)
last gen Hardware is a unknown here and i went for basically 0 units across X360, Ps3, WiiU and Vita. A combined 10k would not make much of a difference anyway...

SNES Mini outsold Switch by units and Ps4 outgrossed the Switch
< 400k for the Switch in September is a given imho[/QUOTE]
You know that there is Super Mario Odyssey who happened to release during the month of October ? Don't you expect significant growth between September and October ?

So we have 480k for XB1+PS4. This year the PS4 is outselling the XB1 by a 2:1 ratio. That gives us :

PS4 : 320k
XB1 : 160k

However the biggest the title of the year so far was only bundled with the PS4 and the XBX is too close to release to dismiss an impact on Xbox sales. So it's more :

PS4: 340k
XB1 :140k

Moreover we know thath the SNES outsold the NES classic in revenue. Do we have an estimate of the NES mini sales ? That would help us.

I am guessing that the Switch would be around 350k. October could put it closer to 500k than 400k.
 
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Jaded Alyx

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,346
The debut Steam concurrent users on Wolfenstein is only 14K, which is not astonishingly encouraging compared to games like Shadow of War (50K), Deus Ex 4 (52K), or even Dishonored 2 (22K) or Prey (25K).

Mind, it could pick up over the weekend, and it’s presumably a large file size title, but given that PC was a big part of the first game, I’m concerned how it might be doing.

I guess we’ll get more accurate SteamSpy numbers in a few days and then the UK sales on Monday.
Some of it might be down to a seemingly not insignificant amount of people experiencing technical issues with the game such as constant crashing. Steam Reviews are Mixed due to this.
 

Soony Xbone Uhh

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@Lelouch0612

X1 at 140k in September would put it down over August on a weekly average while having bigger titles hit and more promotions run over the month before.
I find that is unlikely.

The NES classic sold 416k units in November + December 2016 in the US
The NES classic sold 1.5 million WW as of January 2017
The NES classic sold 2.3 million WW as of April 2017

NES classic MSRP was $60



October is also only a 4 weeks month compared to 5 in September
Welfare could give us some historical numbers when a console sold over 400 or 500k in October the last time.
I believe only the Wii ever managed to do over 500k



edit:
After a quick research, i only found the Wii did over 500k in 2007, 2009 and 2010. In 2008 the Wii did even over 800k.
But beside that no other console or handheld managed 500k+ in the recent history.
Even the Xbox 360 in 2011 was short of 400k
 
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James

Member
Oct 25, 2017
181
US
@Lelouch0612

X1 at 140k in September would put it down over August on a weekly average while having bigger titles hit and more promotions run over the month before.
I find that is unlikely.

The NES classic sold 416k units in November + December 2016 in the US
The NES classic sold 1.5 million WW as of January 2017
The NES classic sold 2.3 million WW as of April 2017

NES classic MSRP was $60



October is also only a 4 weeks month compared to 5 in September
Welfare could give us some historical numbers when a console sold over 400 or 500k in October the last time.
I believe on the Wii ever managed to do over 500k
Switch was heavily constrained until the last week of September. It has been immediately available throughout October. Hardware push from Odyssey was huge. Weekly numbers for October should be much higher than September.

Don't look to history for guidance here. This situation is entirely unprecedented.
 
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