1. donny2112

    donny2112
    Member OP

    ITT, predict for the NPD September 2018 retail period (September 2-October 6, 2018) for U.S. hardware sales.

    What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined by the National Retail Federation (find calendar links here).
    What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but SalesEra followers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.
    Why are there still predictions when official NPD numbers are not released?
    Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, October 16th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

    NPD Coverage: September 2-October 6, 2018 (5 weeks, August was 4 weeks)
    NPD Physical Results Release: Thursday, October 18th @ 4 p.m. EDT (public thread with physical+digital posted 5 days later on October 23rd ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

    Format:

    [NSW]
    [PS4]
    [XB1]

    Good/Bad Formatting
    Code:
    Good              Bad
    [XB1] 200K       [XB1] 200 thousand
    [XB1] 200,000    [XB1] 200.000
    [XB1] 200000     [XB1] - 200000

    Potential hardware impacting events in September:
    PS4 Pro Spiderman bundle ($400, Sept. 7) - 30 days
    Spiderman PS4 exclusive (Sept. 7) - 30 days

    Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

    [NSW]
    [PS4]
    [XB1]

    August's Resuts
    August 2017 NPD thread
    July 2017 NPD thread

    NPD Prediction Thread Archive
     
  2. patapon

    patapon
    Member

    [NSW] 220k
    [PS4] 350k
    [XB1] 180k
     
  3. Mory Dunz

    Mory Dunz
    Member

    That should be august results right


    I'll say xbox a lot, switch lots, ps4 a lota lots
     
  4. donny2112

    donny2112
    Member OP

    Yep. :) Fixed. Thanks!
     
  5. Kyser73

    Kyser73
    Member

    {XB1}Some
    {NSW}Some more
    {PS4}Lots more

    [XB1]175K
    [NSW]220K
    [PS4]420K

    Spidey to top the chart for software.
     
  6. allan-bh

    allan-bh
    Member

    [NSW] 280k
    [PS4] 405k
    [XB1] 220k
     
  7. Kaveri

    Kaveri
    Member

    [NSW] 284k
    [PS4] 378k
    [XB1] 229k
     
  8. bombshell

    bombshell
    Member

    It will be interesting to see if PS4 > NSW + XB1.

    I think it's possible.

    FIFA will take that, no?
     
  9. patapon

    patapon
    Member

    Nah, FIFA is not that big in US.

    Spider-Man will be no.1

    NBA no.2
     
  10. Tratorn

    Tratorn
    Member

    I predict that people will overestimate PS4. :P

    Sure, Spider-Man will have a noticable impact but there is still a barrier for what one game can do for a 5 year old console.
     
  11. OrbitalBeard

    OrbitalBeard
    Member

    PS4 is pretty good at breaking barriers.

    See PS4's sales in April as a recent example.
     
  12. DanteLinkX

    DanteLinkX
    Member

    Insanic.
     
  13. Pablo Mesa

    Pablo Mesa
    Member

    [PS4] 300k
    [NSW] 250k
    [XB1] 180k
     
  14. Welfare

    Welfare
    Member

    [PS4] 350K
    [NSW] 306K
    [XB1] 208K
     
  15. bombshell

    bombshell
    Member

    I thought it had started to get big in the last few years, but maybe not. There's the Zlatan effect this year though!

    I will be very happy if Spider-Man takes it against NBA and FIFA.
     
  16. Majiebeast

    Majiebeast
    Member

    Except it already did with God of War .

    https://www.gamesindustry.biz/artic...-playstation-smash-records-in-april-npd-stats
     
  17. patapon

    patapon
    Member

    The thing is, FIFA launched on 28th so very few days will be counted for it in Sep NPD, combine that with FIFA not being a behemoth in US like it is Europe, so I can easily see Spidey topping the month. NBA will be close though, because that's a big franchise in US and very popular.
    FIFA can be no.3 I think and SoTR might be below it.
     
  18. Pablo Mesa

    Pablo Mesa
    Member

  19. DrakenAstro

    DrakenAstro
    Member

    [PS4] 350k
    [NSW] 260k
    [XB1] 220k
     
  20. patapon

    patapon
    Member

    PS4: 326,000
    Switch: 171,000
    Xbox One: 132,000
     
  21. Cladyclad

    Cladyclad
    Member

    2K will easily be number 1
     
  22. score01

    score01
    Member

    [PS4] 350K
    [NSW] 220K
    [XB1] 200K
     
  23. patapon

    patapon
    Member

    How much did 2k18 sell in its first month on NPD?
     
  24. Cladyclad

    Cladyclad
    Member

    Don’t know. But it’s launching a week earlier this year sept 8 vs sept 15. And it launched on 4 platforms
     
  25. patapon

    patapon
    Member

    Hmm perhaps it could be no.1 then.

    Help us out Benji which game has higher chance of topping Sep NPD, Spidey or NBA 2k19? :D
     
  26. Do you honestly have to ask? Spidey sold 3.9 million in a few days.
     
  27. patapon

    patapon
    Member

    True but that's global figure. NBA is a pretty huge in US and it's on multiple platforms. :)
    Still, both the games would be very close to each other.

    The figure is actually 3.3 million in 3 days btw :D
     
  28. Ex-Actarus

    Ex-Actarus
    Member

    PS4 330k
    Switch 300k
    Xbox 250k
     
  29. My fault. I was thinking of Uncharted.
     
  30. patapon

    patapon
    Member

    Spidey can come out on top too, as Benji hinted numerous times that Spidey had fantastic legs. Sep NPD is going to be very very interesting. :D
     
  31. Sander VF

    Sander VF
    Member

    I’m expecting a godlike PS4 bump for September.
     
  32. Hammer24

    Hammer24
    Member

    [PS4] 417K
    [NSW] 307K
    [XB1] 247K
     
  33. El Manco

    El Manco
    Member

    [PS4] 340K
    [NSW] 300K
    [XB1] 240K
     
  34. jroc74

    jroc74
    Member

    [PS4] 380K
    [NSW] 270K
    [XB1] 200K
     
  35. Heartskips

    Heartskips
    Member

    [PS4] 300K
    [NSW] 250K
    [XB1] 190K
     
  36. Myriotes

    Myriotes
    Member

    [PS4] 353K
    [NSW] 302K
    [XB1] 201K
     
  37. Toni

    Toni
    Member

    [PS4] 420K
    [NSW] 225K
    [XB1] 190K

    Massive hardware boost for PS4. Spider-man had the highest chance all year of pulling that off and I'm sticking to that.

    Spider-man #1 in software as well.

    Easy month for Playstation.
     
  38. v_iHuGi

    v_iHuGi
    Member

    Easiest month ever to predict (placements).

    Numbers are harder though...

    [PS4] 385K
    [NSW] 250K
    [XB1] 225K
     
  39. Kill3r7

    Kill3r7
    Member

    [PS4] 375K
    [NSW] 275K
    [XB1] 225K

    IIRC, it sold more physical copies than Destiny 2 but NPD rankings are based on revenue.
     
  40. Kill3r7

    Kill3r7
    Member

    Double post.
     
  41. Jade1962

    Jade1962
    Member

    [PS4] 400K
    [NSW] 250K
    [XB1] 200K

    1. NBA 2K
    2. Spiderman
    3. Fifa
     
  42. Kolx

    Kolx
    Member

    Why do a lot of people expect a huge month for the switch? Did I miss something.
    [PS4] 330K
    [NSW] 245K
    [XB1] 210K
     
  43. [PS4] 330K
    [NSW] 270K
    [XB1] 200K
     
  44. Rouk'

    Rouk'
    Member

    [PS4] 320K
    [NSW] 240K
    [XB1] 180K
     
  45. jayu26

    jayu26
    Member

    [PS4] 345K
    [NSW] 293K
    [XB1] 181K
     
  46. MrTired

    MrTired
    Member

    [PS4] 400K
    [NSW] 275K
    [XB1] 185K
     
  47. RevengeTaken

    RevengeTaken
    Member

    [NSW] 200k
    [PS4] 380k
    [XB1] 180k
     
  48. Bitch Pudding

    Bitch Pudding
    Member

    [PS4] 350K
    [NSW] 250K
    [XB1] 200K
     
  49. panda-zebra

    panda-zebra
    Member

    [PS4] 404K
    [NSW] 256K
    [XB1] 202K

    They won't register with that formatting.
     
  50. Ex-Actarus

    Ex-Actarus
    Member

    [PS4] 330k
    [NSW] 300k
    [XB1] 250k

    Thanks panda-zebra