September 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, October 16th

Sterok · Oct 19, 2018

If it weren't Pokemon we'd be preemptively calling Let's Go a flop. Not saying I believe it will (it'll certainly make its money back and then some), but being a major entry in a very healthy franchise can only go so far when the product itself doesn't seem to be drawing much interest.

COD has to stop pushing hardware eventually. This is what, the sixth one this gen? Hard to imagine there are many COD fans still holding out for the one that appeals to them specifically.

allan-bh · Oct 19, 2018

First real disappointing month for Xbox One in 2018. I think october will be better with the trade-in at Gamestop for Xbox One X.

PS4 did great, Switch a little lower than I was expecting.

chris 1515 · Oct 19, 2018

Benji said:
Honestly its surprising me as well.

Not saying its having NO affect but certainly not the hardware boost it typically has

Maybe fortnite and PUBG are so popular, some previous COD playser decided to not buy the new entry of the franchise.

Benji · Oct 19, 2018

The main hurdle for Switch moving forward is to break out from that established Nintendo gamer / overall more core gamer.

They are attempting to do that with things like Labo (which wasnt effective) and Pokemon Let's Go (which I'm hoping is going to blow up)

But yeah their sales right now are just consistently solid this year but it hasnt exactly broken out in the way it had looked it was going to in its first year. This holiday will be very important to start expanding that base. Animal Crossing next year will also be a HUGE help.

Peek-a-boo! · Oct 19, 2018

I'm predicting the top five software chart to be:

Spider-Man
NBA 2K19
Super Mario Party (even with just two days of tracking)
Forza Horizon 4
Shadow of the Tomb Raider

Am I forgetting anything else?

:EDIT: Just seen the gap between PlayStation 4 and Xbox One this year ~ nearly 900,000! That's almost an extra 90,000 units (for the PlayStation 4) per month.

DeathyG · Oct 19, 2018

Wow at the PS4 result.

Congrats to Insomniac on a system-selling Spider-Man game. This generation is crazy lol.

Guaraná · Oct 19, 2018

Benji said:
The main hurdle for Switch moving forward is to break out from that established Nintendo gamer / overall more core gamer.

They are attempting to do that with things like Labo (which wasnt effective) and Pokemon Let's Go (which I'm hoping is going to blow up)

But yeah their sales right now are just consistently solid this year but it hasnt exactly broken out in the way it had looked it was going to in its first year. This holiday will be very important to start expanding that base. Animal Crossing next year will also be a HUGE help.

2018 has been a boring year for the Switch. The sales are just reflecting it.

Starting from november, things shall start getting better.

patapon · Oct 19, 2018

Peek-a-boo! said:
I'm predicting the top five software chart to be:

Spider-Man
NBA 2K19
Super Mario Party (even with just two days of tracking)
Forza Horizon 4
Shadow of the Tomb Raider

Am I forgetting anything else?

:EDIT: Just seen the gap between PlayStation 4 and Xbox One this year ~ nearly 900,000! That's almost an extra 90,000 units (for the PlayStation 4) per month.

Assassin's Creed Odyssey :)

gundamkyoukai · Oct 19, 2018

Sterok said:
If it weren't Pokemon we'd be preemptively calling Let's Go a flop. Not saying I believe it will (it'll certainly make its money back and then some), but being a major entry in a very healthy franchise can only go so far when the product itself doesn't seem to be drawing much interest.

COD has to stop pushing hardware eventually. This is what, the sixth one this gen? Hard to imagine there are many COD fans still holding out for the one that appeals to them specifically.

Think some people were counting on the battle royal hype that might have move hardware .

Peek-a-boo! · Oct 19, 2018

patapon said:
Assassin's Creed Odyssey :)

Thought it came out just after the cut-off date?

Nope! It was released on Friday the 5th of October, one day before the NPD tracking ended for the month. I guess you could sandwich Assassin's Creed Odyssey between NBA 2K19 and Super Mario Party.

It's a shame that Benji is saying that October has been a rather ho-hum month thus far...

SilverX · Oct 19, 2018

This is exactly what I have been echoing for the Xbox One for the first half of 2018. The Xbox sold well initially this year thanks to the novelty of the Xbox One X being the newest piece of gaming hardware available coupled with $50 price cuts + other deals every month.

Now that the Xbox One X has been on the market for almost a whole year and MS chose to not focus on price reductions with all the bundles they released (Tomb Raider, NBA 2K, etc.), you get a real look at how Xbox hardware still struggles despite a fantastic year for the brand (new studios, game pass, etc.). This is why I couldn´t fool myself into thinking that it was some massive turnaround when it was still trailing it´s competitors with some heavy moves in quiet months.

I just don´t see how at this rate Xbox sales are going to remain healthy enough to wait on Scarlet launching in 2020 with the honeymoon of the Xbox One X´s newness being over showing what I suspected initially. So Im betting it´s coming a lot sooner than we anticipate.

patapon · Oct 19, 2018

Peek-a-boo! said:
Thought it came out just after the cut-off date?

Nope! It was released on Friday the 5th of October, one day before the NPD tracking ended for the month. I guess you could sandwich Assassin's Creed Odyssey between NBA 2K19 and Super Mario Party.

It's a shame that Benji is saying that October has been a rather ho-hum month thus far...

There are also those expensive early access editions for AC Odyssey released on Oct 2.

N.Domixis · Oct 19, 2018

steviejd1 said:
It's a shame too because just having PS4 and Sony running the show is not good for us as consumers. We need the competition that the big 3 (and any more if they are brave enough to join the console market) have so that they keep innovating and we can keep pushing them to be pro-consumer.

They're running the show because they are prvoiding the biggest exclusives of the two.

asd202 · Oct 19, 2018

PS4 killed it.

klanar · Oct 19, 2018

So i guess july - sept sales for switch is 265+200+ 260= 725k sold through.

Japan is about 600k sales in the same period.
Using the percentages of shipments, it seems that either japan is over performing or NA is underperforming. Either way,
lets put EU inbetween at 660k.
total sold through estimate at like 2M.

Q2 shipments may be about 2.5M to 3M? Seems anout right

Correct me if im wrong about soldthrough NA and JP info.

Caiops · Oct 19, 2018

Really curious about DQXI position.

klanar · Oct 19, 2018

If Q2 shipments are 3M for the switch. Switch needs a 10-11M holiday with 4-5M Q4 to get 20M shipments.
yikes

OfficerRaichu15 · Oct 19, 2018

klanar said:
If Q2 shipments are 3M for the switch. Switch needs a 10-11M holiday with 4-5M Q4 to get 20M shipments.
yikes

Let's wait and see.

Ostinatto · Oct 19, 2018

So , PS4: ~425K on Spiderman month, what was the number on God Of War Month?

Dwebble · Oct 19, 2018

The silver lining for Let's Go is that the markets that would make that thing explode haven't really been marketed to yet. That's not a product that builds anticipation through a steady drum-beat of trailers, it's one which catches the eyes of the most casual audiences on the shelf or on TV ads.

score01 · Oct 19, 2018

Ostinatto said:
So , PS4: ~425K on Spiderman month, what was the number on God Of War Month?

326K for April. At 350K I thought I made a decent prediction lol.

Ostinatto · Oct 19, 2018

score01 said:
326K for April. At 350K I thought I made a decent prediction lol.

So Spiderman sold better than GOW in the first month? :O

Andromeda · Oct 19, 2018

September seems to be a great month for PS4 this gen. What game do you think Sony will push next September ? Ghost of tsushima, TLOU2 or Death Stranding ?

El Manco · Oct 19, 2018

Andromeda said:
September seems to be a great month for PS4 this gen. What game do you think Sony will push next September ? Ghost of tsushima, TLOU2 or Death Stranding ?

With Days Gone now releasing in April I would say GoT or DS. No PSX this year, so, it is going to be difficult to predict first party launch dates for the remaining titles.

Harris Katz · Oct 19, 2018

WillySJ3 said:
Are you leaking the results or making a prediction?

LOL... Sorry! I was on my phone when I saw the NPD thread... I thought I could still post a prediction!

bombshell · Oct 19, 2018

Harris Katz said:
LOL... Sorry! I was on my phone when I saw the NPD thread... I thought I could still post a prediction!

Even though you missed the deadline, that is an amazingly close prediction. Well done!

Harris Katz said:
[PS4] 420K
[NSW] 270K
[XB1] 180K

Welfare said:
PS4: ~425K
NSW: ~260K
XB1: ~175K

WillySJ3 · Oct 19, 2018

bombshell said:
Even though you missed the deadline, that is an amazingly close prediction. Well done!

He tricked us, it wasn't a prediction.

Knight613 · Oct 19, 2018

This is the first month without YOY growth for Xbox huh.

Guess that kind of explains the GameStop deal. I imagine they partnered with them for that.

DriftingSpirit · Oct 19, 2018

WillySJ3 said:
He tricked us, it wasn't a prediction.

Oh snap!

jroc74 · Oct 19, 2018

Ebtesam said:
if thing slow down to them they will release the next gen at the end of 2019 instead of 2Q of 2020

I'm thinking this too.

And...do Sony release in 2019 also...or will Arrogant Sony return and think they can wait til 2020....lol.

They might actually claim the Arrogant title again if they wait and they don't have to.

DriftingSpirit · Oct 19, 2018

jroc74 said:
I'm thinking this too.

And...do Sony release in 2019 also...or will Arrogant Sony return and think they can wait til 2020....lol.

They might actually claim the Arrogant title again if they wait and they don't have to.

They can wait until 2020. Nothing arrogant about it. Look at how the PS4 is still performing.

Wander_ · Oct 19, 2018

is Nba2k performing well on Switch?

jroc74 · Oct 19, 2018

Harris Katz said:
LOL... Sorry! I was on my phone when I saw the NPD thread... I thought I could still post a prediction!

Lmao!!.

Gotta rub salt in the wound...damn you were really, really close.

Katana_Strikes · Oct 19, 2018

Really interested in that Spidey number. Sounds ridiculous.

Astandahl · Oct 19, 2018

klanar said:
If Q2 shipments are 3M for the switch. Switch needs a 10-11M holiday with 4-5M Q4 to get 20M shipments.
yikes

They will overship if the sell through is not enough. Nintendo ( like Sony in 2016 ) already did that. Don't forget that unlike PS4 Switch will sell a lot in Japan as well.

Deleted member 35598 · Oct 19, 2018

Astandahl said:
They will overship if the sell through is not enough. Nintendo ( like Sony in 2016 ) already did that. Don't forget that unlike PS4 Switch will sell a lot in Japan as well.

With Pokemon Let's Go ans Smash Ultimate, the Switch could challenge DS and 3DS number in Novembet and December in Japan. In think that 500K Switch sold in a week is possible in laye December.

slavesnyder · Oct 19, 2018

steviejd1 said:
It's a shame too because just having PS4 and Sony running the show is not good for us as consumers. We need the competition that the big 3 (and any more if they are brave enough to join the console market) have so that they keep innovating and we can keep pushing them to be pro-consumer.

exactly. those damn, irresponsible consumers have made completely unbalanced purchase decisions, preferring one console over the others for no specific reasons. those other companies who only take the place of first and second loser are now completely demotivated and depressed. so we cannot count on them for any attempt to innovate or take new approaches.
i just wish every console would sell the same amount and there would be no envy or rivalry, but only happily chilled corporations. because nothing pushes innovation more than satisfaction.

Noobie · Oct 19, 2018

Katana_Strikes said:
Really interested in that Spidey number. Sounds ridiculous.

+1

DriftingSpirit · Oct 19, 2018

Magicpork said:
Software side (physical only), Spiderman came out as the top selling software by a mile

Benji said:
Spidey digital share is fantastic

Both sides covered. Now we just wait for next week. And that WW sales update can come at any time now, Sony.

Mario Party seems to have done surprisingly well. Tomb Raider....well. PS4 flirting with 500K and it had shortages. Spider-Man is one heck of a system seller.

Katana_Strikes · Oct 19, 2018

What does NBA normally do first month? Could Spidey be something ludicrous like 4m+?

Saint-14 · Oct 19, 2018

Katana_Strikes said:
What does NBA normally do first month? Could Spidey be something ludicrous like 4m+?

That's unrealistic for a multiplat game let alone an exclusive.

Evangelista · Oct 19, 2018

It is the best September for PS4?

xICHIGOx · Oct 19, 2018

Katana_Strikes said:
What does NBA normally do first month? Could Spidey be something ludicrous like 4m+?

How can it sold 4 million in US alone when the game sold 3,3 million in 3 days World Wide? It'll be pure gold to launch at 1 million.

Katana_Strikes · Oct 19, 2018

Saint-14 said:
That's unrealistic for a multiplat game let alone an exclusive.

Maybe but it practically had the whole month and just reading off the snippets it might not be completely out of reach. Just throwing a huge number out there hypothetically. Not saying it has got near that, just wondering if it's at all possible.

xICHIGOx said:
How can it sold 4 million in US alone when the game sold 3,3 million in 3 days World Wide? It'll be pure gold to launch at 1 million.

1 month vs 3 days. Spidey will be well over 1m in the States for September.

Franco_Tech · Oct 19, 2018

Evangelista said:
It is the best September for PS4?

I think the month that the first Destiny released was bigger.

DriftingSpirit · Oct 19, 2018

Katana_Strikes said:
What does NBA normally do first month? Could Spidey be something ludicrous like 4m+?

~2M seems more appropriate.

Evangelista said:
It is the best September for PS4?

Second best.

Destiny in 2014 is still its best September.

donny2112 · Oct 19, 2018

MatPiscatella said:
Wide range of predictions this month. Donny, you ever do standard deviation analysis on the prediction sample to determine variability?

Haven't in the past, but that can be added. (^_^)

ResetERA Aggregate Predictions - Sep-2018

1. PS4 - 386K (stddev: 43K)
2. NSW - 277K (stddev: 33K)
3. XB1 - 209K (stddev: 28K)

Past couple of months, for reference:

Code:

2018-08:
SYS PRED   STDDEV USED_FOR_PRED_RESULTS
--- ------ ------ ---------------------
NSW 231K   28K    205K
PS4 195K   17K    195K
XB1 161K   14K    165K

2018-07:
SYS PRED   STDDEV USED_FOR_PRED_RESULTS
--- ------ ------ ---------------------
NSW 253K   25K    260K
PS4 244K   29K    185K
XB1 178K   23K    150K

Deleted member 32018 · Oct 19, 2018

slavesnyder said:
exactly. those damn, irresponsible consumers have made completely unbalanced purchase decisions, preferring one console over the others for no specific reasons. those other companies who only take the place of first and second loser are now completely demotivated and depressed. so we cannot count on them for any attempt to innovate or take new approaches.
i just wish every console would sell the same amount and there would be no envy or rivalry, but only happily chilled corporations. because nothing pushes innovation more than satisfaction.

Please tell me where I said that it's the consumers fault? It's just good for the consumers if the competition was closer and that's up to the companies to make it closer.

Not really sure what you are trying to achieve with your post tbh.

slavesnyder · Oct 19, 2018

steviejd1 said:
Please tell me where I said that it's the consumers fault? It's just good for the consumers if the competition was closer and that's up to the companies to make it closer.

Not really sure what you are trying to achieve with your post tbh.

if a close competition aka similar sales numbers is better for the consumers, who else is to blame than those who buy the consoles and generate these sales numbers?

cakely · Oct 19, 2018

slavesnyder said:
exactly. those damn, irresponsible consumers have made completely unbalanced purchase decisions, preferring one console over the others for no specific reasons. those other companies who only take the place of first and second loser are now completely demotivated and depressed. so we cannot count on them for any attempt to innovate or take new approaches.
i just wish every console would sell the same amount and there would be no envy or rivalry, but only happily chilled corporations. because nothing pushes innovation more than satisfaction.

Sometimes I think we should just give you a dedicated thread.

September 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, October 16th

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