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September 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, October 16th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
If God of War caused PS4 to have a big April, I'm expecting Spider-Man to do the same and than some. PS4 should distance itself quite a bit from the other two platforms.
I'm way more interested in software performance though. NBA, Spidey, Forza, etc...
I'm way more interested in software performance though. NBA, Spidey, Forza, etc...
So 2 days of Mario Party should be counted into this month.
Should make it into the top 10 pretty easily imo.
Should make it into the top 10 pretty easily imo.
Is this your first time predicting? If so, Welcome to the Jungle, lol. And prepare to get hooked.
Yeah PS4 will certainly have the biggest number here.
400K should definately be possible and even more so.
Not sure why people are expecting the Switch to be 200-250k though, it's a 5 week month after all and it was ~215K last month
Last year the Switch was 320K and that was a month highlighted by Pokken and Fifa.
There's definately a better release schedule for september NPD and switch this year and even a console bundle that should be decently popular at the very least (at least according to pre-orders).. not expecting 320K but anything lower than 250K would be very much a failure for Nintendo.
[PS4] 410K
[NSW] 300K
[XB1] 250K
400K should definately be possible and even more so.
Not sure why people are expecting the Switch to be 200-250k though, it's a 5 week month after all and it was ~215K last month
Last year the Switch was 320K and that was a month highlighted by Pokken and Fifa.
There's definately a better release schedule for september NPD and switch this year and even a console bundle that should be decently popular at the very least (at least according to pre-orders).. not expecting 320K but anything lower than 250K would be very much a failure for Nintendo.
[PS4] 410K
[NSW] 300K
[XB1] 250K
Tough one, MP10 had many more days in its debut month. Still, I'm going with yes, considering MP10 really didn't do well, being on WiiU and stuff, and I expect total sales for SMP to be way higher in the end.
Edit: Looking at Benji's tweet, I think there's a really good chance that it will.
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MP10 was < 270k
https://www./threads/npd-sales-resu...do-numbers-ps4-placing.1030552/post-160464979
so no, I don't think it will in 2 days, especially with no digital.
I think it'll get close though. maybe 250k or less.
edit:
well eff just saw the above post.
nevermind, now I say 300+ lol
Yeah, Super Mario Party has always looked like a big deal to me. I've seen people pass it off as a schedule filler, but it's a big game in its own right: not on Pokémon or Smash level, but well above the Kirby/FE tier.
It's definitely the third biggest Switch game of the year and I've always seen it as such. It's going to be a big hit with a very long tail.
Super Mario Party will probably be the biggest debut for a Switch game since Odyssey. I'm going 375k two days. Kirby did like 260k in two weeks. Mario Party 10 did like 290k In three weeks
Biggest debut for a party game ever???
Biggest debut for a party game ever???
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Select Mario Party US debut sales:
Mario Party 10 (WiiU, 3 weeks) = 290k (physical + digital)
Mario Party 9 (Wii, 4 weeks) = 230k (physical)
Mario Party 8 (Wii, 3 days) = 314k (physical)
Mario Party DS (DS, 2 weeks) = <377k (physical)
It should be noted that Mario Party, like any party game, are not at all front-loaded. Long term more than anything decides the success of these titles, not first month sales.
Mario Party 10 (WiiU, 3 weeks) = 290k (physical + digital)
Mario Party 9 (Wii, 4 weeks) = 230k (physical)
Mario Party 8 (Wii, 3 days) = 314k (physical)
Mario Party DS (DS, 2 weeks) = <377k (physical)
It should be noted that Mario Party, like any party game, are not at all front-loaded. Long term more than anything decides the success of these titles, not first month sales.
[PS4] 405k
[NSW] 260K
[XB1] 185K
I think Spiderman will take it with NBA a close second. Fifa a conformable third and Mario party possibly in the top 5.
I gotta get something right eventually.
[NSW] 260K
[XB1] 185K
I think Spiderman will take it with NBA a close second. Fifa a conformable third and Mario party possibly in the top 5.
I gotta get something right eventually.
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[NSW] 250k
[PS4] 520k
[XB1] 120k
Interesting caveat: If PS4 sells 400K more than XBOX they would have outsold XBOX by 1 million in 2018.
[PS4] 520k
[XB1] 120k
Interesting caveat: If PS4 sells 400K more than XBOX they would have outsold XBOX by 1 million in 2018.
Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of August and September. This is where comparing weekly averages is better than simple month to month because September is a 5 week month while August is only 4. I have gathered high selling software and any hardware deals for September to help show how the month might be impacted. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts.
Notes:
September is almost always better than August in weekly averages as we are heading into the fall season and more AAA games are released. Many different franchise can launch this month so the consistency of how large sales grow can be a bit random.
Xbox
The Xbox One has had decent deals in September. 2014 had a free game week alongside Destiny's launch and 2015 had two trade in deals along with the launch of NBA (usually an October launch) and the addition of Forza and FIFA bundles. 2016 fell slightly from August thanks to the launch of the One S at both the beginning and end of the month with different models, and even then the drop was very small. 2017 only had Destiny 2 as the new major launch outside of the sports titles but that was enough for a good increase over August.
2018 is pretty stacked in releases, and a ton of bundles. For the first time this gen, Xbox is now bundled with NBA, and had 3 retailer exclusive bundles, a One X Tomb Raider bundle at Best Buy, and two Forza bundles at the MS Store.
Keep in mind when comparing to August, GameStop had a near full month trade in deal for the One X. September had no promotions, just games and bundles. This year as well, Call of Duty launches the first week of October NPD, so sales at the end of September could either increase or decrease in anticipation.
Xbox One weekly average rise is +20% with the only drop being -3% (2016) and the largest rise of +43% (2014).
PlayStation
PS4 has done incredibly well in September. Massive hardware events such as the Destiny bundles in 2014/2015/2017 and the launch of the PS4 Slim with a price cut to $299 in 2016.
2018 has one of the biggest games of the year so far as an exclusive in Marvel's Spider-Man and that also had a Pro bundle at the beginning of the month. Besides that, it has the same multiplatform releases as the Xbox One, and Call of Duty could potentially have the same effect on late month PS4 sales.
PS4 weekly average rise is +59% with the smallest rise being +33% (2017) and the largest rise of +127% (2014). Without 2014, it averages out to +37%.
Nintendo
The 3DS averages a rise of +22% with the smallest rise being +9% (2012) and the largest rise being +29% (2013). 3DS was actually pretty consistent in weekly rises.
Switch will most likely have another great month. Two new bundles, one of them being Fortnite (but only at the end of the month) and a massive GameStop trade in deal that gave you $275 towards a Switch. It's even better than the one back in June ($250). There is also the launch of Super Mario Party.
Recap
September is almost always an improvement in weekly average. Not much else besides that if there isn't much going on, the increase might be small, but don't be surprised by massive improvements either.
The biggest September ever recorded during the 7th gen was the Wii with 687K back in 2008. Second biggest? Xbox 360 with 528K back in 2007.
The biggest September ever recorded during the 8th gen was the PS4 with 538,000 in 2014. Second biggest? PS4 again with 354K back in 2015.
Code:
2012
Xbox 360 August: 193K / 4 = 48,250
Xbox 360 September: 270K / 5 = 54,000
Weekly average +12%
PS3 August: 143K / 4 = 35,750
PS3 September: 201K / 5 = 40,200
Weekly average +12%
3DS August: 179K / 4 = 44,750
3DS September: 243K / 5 = 48,600
Weekly average +9%
Notable Events in September
Xbox 360
Madden NFL 13 [5 weeks]
Borderlands 2 [2 weeks]
PS3
PS3 Super Slim $269 [1 week]
Madden NFL 13 [5 weeks]
Borderlands 2 [2 weeks]
Code:
2013
Xbox 360 August: 96K / 4 = 24,000
Xbox 360 September: 179K / 5 = 35,800
Weekly average +49%
PS3 August: 71K / 4 = 17,750
PS3 September: 216K / 5 = 43,200
Weekly average +143%
3DS August: 130K / 4 = 32,500
3DS September: 209K / 5 = 41,800
Weekly average +29%
Notable Events in September
Xbox 360
Grand Theft Auto V [3 weeks] [>4.06m]
Diablo III [5 weeks] [335,500]
PS3
Grand Theft Auto V 500GB bundle $269 [3 weeks] [~130k]
Grand Theft Auto V [3 weeks] [>2.81m]
Kingdom Hearts HD 1.5 Remix [4 weeks] [273,000]
Diablo III [5 weeks] [205,000]
3DS
Special Blue Xerneas & Yveltal Pokemon XY XL $199 [2 weeks]
Special Red Xerneas & Yveltal Pokemon XY XL $199 [2 weeks]
Code:
2014
Xbox One August: 159K / 4 = 39,750
Xbox One September: 284K / 5 = 56,800
Weekly average +43%
PS4 August: 190K / 4 = 47,500
PS4 September: 538K / 5 = 107,600
Weekly average +127%
3DS August: 91K / 4 = 22,750
3DS September: 140K / 5 = 28,000
Weekly average +23%
Xbox 360 August: 50K / 4 = 12,500
Xbox 360 September: 74K / 5 = 14,800
Weekly average up 18%
PS3 August: 27K / 4 = 6,750
PS3 September: 46K / 5 = 9,200
Weekly average +36%
Notable Events in September
Xbox One
1 free game with every Xbox One purchase [Destiny week]
Destiny [4 weeks] [<945K]
Middle-earth: Shadow of Mordor [1 week] [<144K]
PS4
Destiny White 500GB model $449 [4 weeks] [300K]
Destiny [4 weeks] [<891K]
Middle-earth: Shadow of Mordor [1 week] [<207K]
3DS
Super Smash Bros. 3DS Special Themed Blue + Black $199 [3 weeks]
Super Smash Bros. 3DS Special Themed Red + Black $199 [3 weeks]
Super Smash Bros. 3DS [1 week]
Xbox 360
Call of Duty: Ghosts + Call of Duty: Black Ops II 500GB bundle $249 [3 weeks]
Destiny [4 weeks] [<621K]
PS3
Destiny 500GB Bundle $269? [4 weeks]
Destiny [4 weeks] [<243K]
Code:
2015
Xbox One August: 200K / 4 = 50,000
Xbox One September: 292K / 5 = 58,400
Weekly average +17%
PS4 August: 208K / 4 = 52,000
PS4 September: 354K / 5 = 70,800
Weekly average +36%
3DS August: 77K / 4 = 19,250
3DS September: 123K / 5 = 24,600
Weekly average +28%
Notable Events in September
Xbox One
Best Buy - Trade in Last Gen console and get $150 towards Xbox One [9/27-10/3]
Gamestop Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $100 towards Xbox One [9/15-9/20]
Forza 6 Limited 1TB bundle $399 [3 weeks]
FIFA 16 bundle 1TB $399 [3 weeks]
NBA 2K16 [1 week] [>429k]
Destiny: The Taken King [3 weeks] [>227k]
FIFA 16 [2 weeks] [<214k]
Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain [5 weeks] [<184k]
PS4
Destiny: The Taken King White Bundle $399 [3 weeks] [<173k]
NBA 2K16 [1 week] [>572k]
Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain [5 weeks] [<552k]
FIFA 16 [2 weeks] [<292k]
Destiny: The Taken King [3 weeks] [>216k]
3DS
2DS $99 [5 weeks]
Animal Crossing Happy Home Designer Special Themed White New 3DS bundle $219 [2 weeks]
Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer [2 weeks]
Code:
2016
Xbox One August: 275K / 4 = 68,750
Xbox One September: 333K / 5 = 66,600
Weekly average -3%
PS4 August: 160K / 4 = 40,000
PS4 September: 285K / 5 = 57,000
Weekly average +43%
3DS August: 142K / 4 = 35,500
3DS September: 172K / 5 = 43,000
Weekly average +21%
Notable Events in September
Xbox One
Free game with any Xbox One S bundle purchased [Amazon/Best Buy/Gamestop/Target] [9/25 - 10/1]
Xbox One S Minecraft 500GB bundle $299 [2 weeks]
NBA 2K17 [2 weeks]
FIFA 17 [1 week]
Forza Horizon 3 [1 week]
PS4
PS4 $299 [4 weeks]
PS4 Slim 500GB $299 [3 weeks]
NBA 2K17 [2 weeks]
FIFA 17 [1 week]
3DS
Galaxy Special Themed Purple XL Bundle $199 [5 weeks]
Code:
2017
Xbox One August: 116K / 4 = 29,000
Xbox One September: 180K / 5 = 36,000
Weekly average +24%
PS4 August: 181K / 4 = 45,250
PS4 September: 300K / 5 = 60,000
Weekly average +33%
Notable Events in September
Xbox One
Destiny 2 [4 weeks]
NBA 2K18 [3 weeks]
FIFA 18 [1 week]
PS4
PS4 Pro Destiny 2 1TB Limited Bundle $449 [4 weeks]
Destiny 2 [4 weeks]
NBA 2K18 [3 weeks]
FIFA 18 [1 week]
Code:
2018 August Weekly Averages
Switch: 206K / 4 weeks = 51,500
PS4: 197K / 4 weeks = 49,250
Xbox One: 165K / 4 weeks = 41,250
Notable Events in September
Switch
Gamestop Deal - Trade in select consoles and get up to $275 towards Switch Offer valid 9/16/18 - 9/22/18
Mario Tennis Aces + 1, 2, Switch Bundle $359 [Walmart] [5 weeks]
Fortnite Bundle $299 [1 week]
NBA 2K19 [4 weeks]
Nintendo Labo: Vehicle Kit [4 weeks]
FIFA 19 [2 weeks]
Dragon Ball FighterZ [2 weeks]
Super Mario Party [1 week]
Xbox One
Xbox One S NBA 2K19 1TB Bundle $299 [4 weeks]
Xbox One X NBA 2K19 Bundle $499 [4 weeks]
Xbox One X Shadow of the Tomb Raider 1TB Bundle $499 [Best Buy] [4 weeks]
Xbox One S Forza Horizon 4 1TB Bundle $299 [MS Store] [1 week]
Xbox One X Forza Horizon 4 + Forza Motorsport 7 1TB Bundle $499 [MS Store] [1 week]
Destiny 2: Forsaken Legendary Collection [5 weeks]
NBA 2K19 [4 weeks]
Shadow of the Tomb Raider [4 weeks]
FIFA 19 [2 weeks]
Assassin's Creed Odyssey [1 week]
Forza Horizon 4 [1 week]
PS4
PS4 Pro Marvel's Spider-Man 1TB Limited Bundle $399 [5 weeks]
Marvel's Spider-Man [5 weeks]
Destiny 2: Forsaken Legendary Collection [5 weeks]
NBA 2K19 [4 weeks]
Shadow of the Tomb Raider [4 weeks]
FIFA 19 [2 weeks]
Assassin's Creed Odyssey [1 week]Notes:
September is almost always better than August in weekly averages as we are heading into the fall season and more AAA games are released. Many different franchise can launch this month so the consistency of how large sales grow can be a bit random.
Xbox
The Xbox One has had decent deals in September. 2014 had a free game week alongside Destiny's launch and 2015 had two trade in deals along with the launch of NBA (usually an October launch) and the addition of Forza and FIFA bundles. 2016 fell slightly from August thanks to the launch of the One S at both the beginning and end of the month with different models, and even then the drop was very small. 2017 only had Destiny 2 as the new major launch outside of the sports titles but that was enough for a good increase over August.
2018 is pretty stacked in releases, and a ton of bundles. For the first time this gen, Xbox is now bundled with NBA, and had 3 retailer exclusive bundles, a One X Tomb Raider bundle at Best Buy, and two Forza bundles at the MS Store.
Keep in mind when comparing to August, GameStop had a near full month trade in deal for the One X. September had no promotions, just games and bundles. This year as well, Call of Duty launches the first week of October NPD, so sales at the end of September could either increase or decrease in anticipation.
Xbox One weekly average rise is +20% with the only drop being -3% (2016) and the largest rise of +43% (2014).
PlayStation
PS4 has done incredibly well in September. Massive hardware events such as the Destiny bundles in 2014/2015/2017 and the launch of the PS4 Slim with a price cut to $299 in 2016.
2018 has one of the biggest games of the year so far as an exclusive in Marvel's Spider-Man and that also had a Pro bundle at the beginning of the month. Besides that, it has the same multiplatform releases as the Xbox One, and Call of Duty could potentially have the same effect on late month PS4 sales.
PS4 weekly average rise is +59% with the smallest rise being +33% (2017) and the largest rise of +127% (2014). Without 2014, it averages out to +37%.
Nintendo
The 3DS averages a rise of +22% with the smallest rise being +9% (2012) and the largest rise being +29% (2013). 3DS was actually pretty consistent in weekly rises.
Switch will most likely have another great month. Two new bundles, one of them being Fortnite (but only at the end of the month) and a massive GameStop trade in deal that gave you $275 towards a Switch. It's even better than the one back in June ($250). There is also the launch of Super Mario Party.
Recap
September is almost always an improvement in weekly average. Not much else besides that if there isn't much going on, the increase might be small, but don't be surprised by massive improvements either.
The biggest September ever recorded during the 7th gen was the Wii with 687K back in 2008. Second biggest? Xbox 360 with 528K back in 2007.
The biggest September ever recorded during the 8th gen was the PS4 with 538,000 in 2014. Second biggest? PS4 again with 354K back in 2015.
There is a 0% chance that'll be the case in HW sales. You think the PS4 will outsell the other two combined?!
I think people will be surprised at how well it does. I know folks don't like Amazon rankings that much, but it's well ahead of all of this year's Nintendo releases in the year rankings(except Smash), and is number 1 for October so far. It should beat out Aces pretty handily.
If i remember right it was that way for GOW month or close to it .
Don't see it happening but i expect PS4 to do very good.
The PS4 did close to 50k/ week in August.
September NPD has 5 weeks.
Given the historical September bumps and Spidey, 350k seems almost conservative for PS4, but you say 330k is the ceiling?
Ok.
One could make an argument that new ps4 consumers buying a PS4 in 2018 for Spider-Man...were also interested in GoW
Also, one could argue that current ps4 gamers upgrading to ps4 Pro in 2018 for Spider-Man...were also interested in having Pro for GoW
So one could argue that much of the April increase in hardware sales were already consumers interested in Spider-Man. So the bump wouldn't be similar.
If a consumer waited this long to buy ps4 hardware, I would think many are willing to wait 2 more months for a reduced price version...but hey, I could be wrong about that :P
In any case, for Spider-Man to have a similar hardware increase in September as GoW had in April, we are looking at ~475k in sales for ps4 which I can't imagine happening at all.
I can't even seeing it get even close to 400k
Well, you can look at it this way:
This August, the weekly average was only 4,000 more than last August.
If you bump this September similarly, you get ~320k.
So the question is how much of a bump you think Spider-Man has on hardware now given all the variables.
I do agree that ~330k is definitely more of a low end ballpark figure than the Max :P
Spider-Man is hitting a different part of the market than God of War. Not completely different, sure, but certainly not the exact same. Benji has also made it clear that Spider-Man was pushing units.
I don't know how much PS4 will sell for September either. I just don't think that part of your argument works.