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September 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, October 16th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
I am usually lacking a lot of knowledge concerning US sales data since I usually keep myself to JP sales but I figured I might as well go out of my comfort zone and try to hop in the predictions for NPD, if only as a learning practice.
[PS4] 395k
[NSW] 290k
[XB1] 240k
Spider-Man's success doesn't need to be explained further on. It's a shame that PS4 Pro still has stock issues but I don't think they'll have that big of an impact. PS4 is assured to take the month. Since NPD's coverage include Super Mario Party's launch I also expect big numbers on the Switch front. Super Mario Party will be massive, I predict a minimum of five million copies by the end of the year.
[PS4] 395k
[NSW] 290k
[XB1] 240k
Spider-Man's success doesn't need to be explained further on. It's a shame that PS4 Pro still has stock issues but I don't think they'll have that big of an impact. PS4 is assured to take the month. Since NPD's coverage include Super Mario Party's launch I also expect big numbers on the Switch front. Super Mario Party will be massive, I predict a minimum of five million copies by the end of the year.
My man!
5 million in 2018 would probably make this game the best-selling Mario Party game ever in the end with lifetime sales. That said, I can see 4-5 million by the end of december (or otherwise by the end of the fiscal year) happening, but it'll of course be a challenging goal for the game.
It should be the best selling Mario Party game as long as ND Cube isn't magically releasing another one next fall like they did back on Gamecube/Wii. The push for this game is very strong, and I think the joy-con+game bundle at a reduced price is going to do big numbers this holiday.
Those are good points. It'll be exciting to follow this game's performance in the coming year.
Damn really wanted to see how high it could go so late in the gen .
The fact that it has only one day of sales counted might prevent that from happening.
Largest debut was Mario Party 6... and it is highly unlikely it will be beat for launch month.
Would you put that down to the number of days tracked or to momentum?
Neither. Mario Party 6 had a massive launch. But no digital and limited days tracked certainly doesn't help the new one.
Ahh makes sense. Super Mario Party also had a digital promotion so it'll probably have a higher digital sale possibly?
Also do you see Fighter Z for Switch performing similar to Xenoverse 2 or above/under during the holidays?
Not sure on the first, bit too speculative for me. As for the second, haven't thought about it. My time is being focused on the top 10 or so.
Yeah as much as Super Mario Party will do big numbers at launch, it ain't gonna do 500k first month
Mario Party 6 had an intere month of sales, and that month was December. Expecting something similar for Super Mario Party is insane, it's not even a reasonable comparation.
300K would already be a big success.
super mario party will be this year's second best selling collection of minigames after red dead redemption 2.
I looked it up and the game's on GameCube.
Did it really have impressive sales back in the day... or do you mean passing it's NA LTD?
Edit: should have read the page before posting.
Put a dunce hat on me.
As was just posted in this thread. MP6 is the biggest NPD debut for a Mario Party game.
If SMP had a full month of tracking it would probably beat it tbh unless legs collapse
It is. Much better than I thought it would.
Thing is people need to keep expectations in check still. As good as its doing it only has 2 days of tracking and no digital. That's going to not show much of the full picture for how its doing
Still, Fortnite bundle and Super Mario Party launch should assure a good last two days of NPD coverage.
December launch. And it was tracked for most of the month too.
Any indications of it moving hardware? I am curious if it has managed to affect Joycon sales in particular.
That's pretty impressive. If Super Mario Party is selling on pace with/faster than MP6 (469k) despite it being October instead of December, then the sales in December should probably be massive as well for the game.
Comparing calendar month sales across titles is by nature silly and too dependent on a number of variables that won't be apples:apples. I use these comparisons in the media notes because people like to talk about them and they get coverage, but yeah, they aren't the best.
I'll be honest I'm gonna lower my expectations to 250k which would be a good debut. It's interesting though that this will be the first party game to truly break out on Switch(1 2 Switch had the opportunity of being a launch title and while it did well and sold over 2 Million, it...well it did well)
I think you guys will see me ask more about financial stuff since that's my major lol.
I think you guys will see me ask more about financial stuff since that's my major lol.
It's always about context.
A comparation of a game released in a normal month of the year (from January to October) with a similar period of tracking, is a good comparation. Now, comparing a game with 2 days of track against another game with a full month, also the biggest month of the year, well is kinda hard.
You CAN compare them, just for have a complete picture of the series, is always good to know how much others games sold, the discussion start to be silly when you try to analyze the success of Super Mario Party using the launch numbers of Mario Party 6 as a metric. Now, that's silly.
OP
OP
Thanks for the update! Was expecting the Pro shortages to be due to saving for Spidey month, but it looks like that's not the case. Very useful information. (^_^)
Last bit caught me off-guard. :lol:
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On Super Mario Party, September+October results would be 5 weeks (i.e. like a December in # of weeks), so would be curious how it compared with MP6, in that case. Obviously December is a bigger month than the last week of September+October, even if the # of weeks are the same. Would imagine that Switch is probably hitting a wider amount of people than GCN was, though. Not apples to apples, but still interesting for armchair comparisons.
Can you tell if the shortages are due to lower shipments then normal months with an exclusive (like supply you received during horizon or GOW) or unusually high demand after the launch of Spider-Man?
If I'm not wrong some component parts of the Pro is really scarce in the market...
You always have some amazing posts. This legit made me laugh out loud.
That would be stupid from Sony. They'd prefer sell all the Pros they have as soon as possible instead of taking the risk people buy a PC, a XBX (some have done exactly that), or wait for PS5.
People also thought that they were saving the Pros to make 500 millions LE consoles or RDR2 bundles. Sony wouldn't do that (and they have never done that in the past AFAIK). There are Pro shortages because for some reason, one they can't control, they can't produce enough of them. Most likely because of the shortage of MLCC components.
Domt get me wrong, the shipments for the Spidey Pro bundle were very large for a special edition. That said it still was not enough to meet demand and standard Pro consoles are still few and far between.
PS4 is going to have an amazing September still, I'm just saying if shortages were totally fixed it could have went even higher
PS4 is going to have an amazing September still, I'm just saying if shortages were totally fixed it could have went even higher
Truth is i expected spidey to do good and move hardware but not this fast .
It already at 400k in UK with out DD is crazy .
thanks for your insights Benji
How has the Switch been doing? has interest levelled off or is it continuing to show growing demand?
Thanks for everything Benji ;)
I think monitoring the demand of the Premium consoles (X and Pro) relatively to the standard consoles is a good way to know whether a market is ready for next-gen or not.
I wonder how many people went with a normal PS4 after failing to find a Pro, and how many didn't buy anything
