September 2019 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, October 15th

donny2112

Member
Oct 27, 2017
385
ITT, predict for the NPD September 2019 retail period (September 1-October 5, 2019) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined by the National Retail Federation (find calendar links here).
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but SalesEra followers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.
Why are there still predictions when official NPD numbers are not released?
Trust me said:
To have fun? To share thoughts and speculation with a like mined group of people? To be able to communicate directly with individuals who study this industry for a living?
ethomaz said:
Since 2010 I guess we don't get official numbers anymore... that doesn't mean we don't get the numbers.

The ranking and results are based in real numbers.
Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, October 15th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: September 1-October 5, 2019 (5 weeks, August was 4 weeks)
NPD Results Release: Thursday, October 17 @ 4 p.m. EDT (public thread posted later @ ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good              Bad
[XB1] 200K      [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000   [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000    [XB1] - 200000

Potential hardware impacting events in September:
Nintendo Switch Lite release ($200) - September 20 (16 days in September retail period)

Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

August's #1 Predictor (results not public)
[NSW] 240K
[PS4] 180K
[XB1] 90K
August 2018 NPD thread
September 2018 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 

JorRAptor

Member
Feb 19, 2018
36
1. Borderlands 3
2. NBA 2K20
3. Zelda
4. Ghost Recon Breakpoint

Mario Kart will be in the top 10
 

Welfare

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,835
Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of August and September. This is where comparing weekly averages is better than simple month to month because September is a 5 week month while August is only 4. I have gathered high selling software and any hardware deals for September to help show how the month might be impacted. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts.

Code:
2012

Xbox 360 August: 193K / 4 = 48,250
Xbox 360 September: 270K / 5 = 54,000

Weekly average +12%

PS3 August: 143K / 4 = 35,750
PS3 September: 201K / 5 = 40,200

Weekly average +12%

3DS August: 179K / 4 = 44,750
3DS September: 243K / 5 = 48,600

Weekly average +9%

Notable Events in September

Xbox 360
Madden NFL 13 [5 weeks]
Borderlands 2 [2 weeks]

PS3
PS3 Super Slim $269 [1 week]

Madden NFL 13 [5 weeks]
Borderlands 2 [2 weeks]
Code:
2013

Xbox 360 August: 96K / 4 = 24,000
Xbox 360 September: 179K / 5 = 35,800

Weekly average +49%

PS3 August: 71K / 4 = 17,750
PS3 September: 216K / 5 = 43,200

Weekly average +143%

3DS August: 130K / 4 = 32,500
3DS September: 209K / 5 = 41,800

Weekly average +29%

Notable Events in September

Xbox 360
Grand Theft Auto V [3 weeks] [>4.06m]
Diablo III [5 weeks] [335,500]

PS3
Grand Theft Auto V 500GB bundle $269 [3 weeks] [~130k]

Grand Theft Auto V [3 weeks] [>2.81m]
Kingdom Hearts HD 1.5 Remix [4 weeks] [273,000]
Diablo III [5 weeks] [205,000]

3DS
Special Blue Xerneas & Yveltal Pokemon XY XL $199 [2 weeks]
Special Red Xerneas & Yveltal Pokemon XY XL $199 [2 weeks]
Code:
2014

Xbox One August: 159K / 4 = 39,750
Xbox One September: 284K / 5 = 56,800

Weekly average +43%

PS4 August: 190K / 4 = 47,500
PS4 September: 538K / 5 = 107,600

Weekly average +127%

3DS August: 91K / 4 = 22,750
3DS September: 140K / 5 = 28,000

Weekly average +23%

Xbox 360 August: 50K / 4 = 12,500
Xbox 360 September: 74K / 5 = 14,800

Weekly average +18%

PS3 August: 27K / 4 = 6,750
PS3 September: 46K / 5 = 9,200

Weekly average +36%

Notable Events in September

Xbox One
1 free game with every Xbox One purchase [Destiny week]

Destiny [4 weeks] [<945K]
Middle-earth: Shadow of Mordor [1 week] [<144K]

PS4
Destiny White 500GB model $449 [4 weeks] [300K]

Destiny [4 weeks] [<891K]
Middle-earth: Shadow of Mordor [1 week] [<207K]

3DS
Super Smash Bros. 3DS Special Themed Blue + Black $199 [3 weeks]
Super Smash Bros. 3DS Special Themed Red + Black $199 [3 weeks]

Super Smash Bros. 3DS [1 week]

Xbox 360
Call of Duty: Ghosts + Call of Duty: Black Ops II 500GB bundle $249 [3 weeks]

Destiny [4 weeks] [<621K]

PS3
Destiny 500GB Bundle $269? [4 weeks]

Destiny [4 weeks] [<243K]
Code:
2015

Xbox One August: 200K / 4 = 50,000
Xbox One September: 292K / 5 = 58,400

Weekly average +17%

PS4 August: 208K / 4 = 52,000
PS4 September: 354K / 5 = 70,800

Weekly average +36%

3DS August: 77K / 4 = 19,250
3DS September: 123K / 5 = 24,600

Weekly average +28%

Notable Events in September

Xbox One
Best Buy - Trade in Last Gen console and get $150 towards Xbox One [9/27-10/3]
Gamestop Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $100 towards Xbox One [9/15-9/20]
Forza 6 Limited 1TB bundle $399 [3 weeks]
FIFA 16 bundle 1TB $399 [3 weeks]

NBA 2K16 [1 week] [>429k]
Destiny: The Taken King [3 weeks] [>227k]
FIFA 16 [2 weeks] [<214k]
Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain [5 weeks] [<184k]

PS4
Destiny: The Taken King White Bundle $399 [3 weeks] [<173k]

NBA 2K16 [1 week] [>572k]
Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain [5 weeks] [<552k]
FIFA 16 [2 weeks] [<292k]
Destiny: The Taken King [3 weeks] [>216k]

3DS
2DS $99 [5 weeks]

Animal Crossing Happy Home Designer Special Themed White New 3DS bundle $219 [2 weeks]

Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer [2 weeks]
Code:
2016

Xbox One August: 275K / 4 = 68,750
Xbox One September: 333K / 5 = 66,600

Weekly average -3%

PS4 August: 160K / 4 = 40,000
PS4 September: 285K / 5 = 57,000

Weekly average +43%

3DS August: 142K / 4 = 35,500
3DS September: 172K / 5 = 43,000

Weekly average +21%

Notable Events in September

Xbox One
Free game with any Xbox One S bundle purchased [Amazon/Best Buy/Gamestop/Target] [9/25 - 10/1]
Xbox One S Minecraft 500GB bundle $299 [2 weeks]

NBA 2K17 [2 weeks]
FIFA 17 [1 week]
Forza Horizon 3 [1 week]

PS4
PS4 $299 [4 weeks]
PS4 Slim 500GB $299 [3 weeks]

NBA 2K17 [2 weeks]
FIFA 17 [1 week]

3DS
Galaxy Special Themed Purple XL Bundle $199 [5 weeks]
Code:
2017 

Xbox One August: 116K / 4 = 29,000
Xbox One September: 180K / 5 = 36,000

Weekly average +24%

PS4 August: 181K / 4 = 45,250
PS4 September: 300K / 5 = 60,000

Weekly average +33%

Notable Events in September

Xbox One
Destiny 2 [4 weeks]
NBA 2K18 [3 weeks]
FIFA 18 [1 week]

PS4
PS4 Pro Destiny 2 1TB Limited Bundle $449 [4 weeks]

Destiny 2 [4 weeks]
NBA 2K18 [3 weeks]
FIFA 18 [1 week]
Code:
2018

Switch August: 206K / 4 = 51,500
Switch September: 260K / 5 = 52,000

Weekly average +1%

Xbox One August: 165K / 4 = 41,250
Xbox One September: 175K / 5 = 35,000

Weekly average -15%

PS4 August: 197K / 4 = 49,250
PS4 September: 425K / 5 = 85,000

Weekly average +73%

Notable Events in September

Switch
Gamestop Deal - Trade in select consoles and get up to $275 towards Switch Offer valid 9/16/18 - 9/22/18
Mario Tennis Aces + 1, 2, Switch Bundle $359 [Walmart] [5 weeks]
Fortnite Bundle $299 [1 week]

NBA 2K19 [4 weeks]
Nintendo Labo: Vehicle Kit [4 weeks]
FIFA 19 [2 weeks]
Dragon Ball FighterZ [2 weeks]
Super Mario Party [1 week]

Xbox One
Xbox One S NBA 2K19 1TB Bundle $299 [4 weeks]
Xbox One X NBA 2K19 Bundle $499 [4 weeks]
Xbox One X Shadow of the Tomb Raider 1TB Bundle $499 [Best Buy] [4 weeks]
Xbox One S Forza Horizon 4 1TB Bundle $299 [MS Store] [1 week]
Xbox One X Forza Horizon 4 + Forza Motorsport 7 1TB Bundle $499 [MS Store] [1 week]

Destiny 2: Forsaken Legendary Collection [5 weeks]
NBA 2K19 [4 weeks]
Shadow of the Tomb Raider [4 weeks]
FIFA 19 [2 weeks]
Assassin's Creed Odyssey [1 week]
Forza Horizon 4 [1 week]

PS4
PS4 Pro Marvel’s Spider-Man 1TB Limited Bundle $399 [5 weeks]

Marvel’s Spider-Man [5 weeks]
Destiny 2: Forsaken Legendary Collection [5 weeks]
NBA 2K19 [4 weeks]
Shadow of the Tomb Raider [4 weeks]
FIFA 19 [2 weeks]
Assassin's Creed Odyssey [1 week]
Code:
2019 August Weekly Averages Using #1 Predictor

Switch: ~240K / 4 weeks = ~60,000
PS4: ~180K / 4 weeks = ~45,000
Xbox One: ~90K / 4 weeks = ~22,500

Notable Events in September

Switch
Switch Lite Grey $199 [3 weeks]
Switch Lite Turquoise $199 [3 weeks]
Switch Lite Yellow $199 [3 weeks]

Gamestop Deal - Trade in select consoles and get up to $250 towards Switch and $225 towards Switch Lite Offer valid 9/15/19 - 9/22/19

The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening [3 weeks]
Dragon Quest XI S: Echoes of Elusive Definitive Edition [2 weeks]

Xbox One
Xbox One X Gears 5 Limited Edition Bundle $499 [5 weeks]
Xbox One X NBA 2K20 Special Edition Bundle $499 [GameStop] [5 weeks]
Xbox One X NBA 2K20 Bundle $499 [5 weeks]
Xbox One S NBA 2K20 Bundle $299 [5 weeks]
Xbox One X Gears 5 Bundle $499 [4 weeks]
Xbox One S Gears 5 Bundle $299 [4 weeks]
Xbox One S All-Digital Edition Sea of Thieves + Minecraft + Fortnite 1TB Bundle $249 [GameStop] [2 weeks]

NBA 2K20 [5 weeks]
Gears 5 [4 weeks]
Borderlands 3 [4 weeks]
FIFA 20 [2 weeks]
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon Breakpoint [1 week]

PS4
NBA 2K20 [5 weeks]
Borderlands 3 [4 weeks]
FIFA 20 [2 weeks]
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon Breakpoint [1 week]
Notes
September is almost always better than August in weekly averages as we are heading into the fall season and more AAA games are released. Many different franchises can launch this month so the consistency of how large sales grow can be a bit random.

Xbox
The Xbox One has had decent deals in September. 2014 had a free game week alongside Destiny’s launch and 2015 had two trade in deals along with the launch of NBA (usually an October launch) and the addition of the Forza and FIFA bundles. 2016 fell slightly from August thanks to the launch of the One S at both the beginning and end of the month with different models, and even then the drop was small. 2017 only had Destiny 2 as the new major launch outside of the sports titles but that was enough for a good increase over August. 2018 suffered thanks to the GameStop having the first trade in deal for the Xbox One X in August, which lasted all month.

2019 looks to be a good transition from August to September. Madden was in July, so August sales are lower than usual, and September saw the launches of Gears 5 and Borderlands 3 in addition to staples like NBA. Xbox also flooded stores with even more bundles, 7 in total. Two of the major ones are the special edition Gears 5 and NBA bundles, four of them are standard Gears 5 and NBA bundles, and the last is an update to the Xbox One S All Digital Edition with Fortnite replacing Forza Horizon 3, which launched at GameStop for the first time. A lot of those will most likely end up not doing great, but it’s clear Microsoft wants shelves to be filled in time for the next three months.

Xbox One weekly average rise is +14% with the largest drop being -15% (2018) and the largest rise of +43% (2014).

PlayStation
PS4 has done incredibly well in September. Massive hardware events such as the Destiny bundles in 2014/2015/2017, the launch of the PS4 Slim with a price cut to $299 in 2016, and the Spider-Man bundle in 2018.

2019 is quiet on the hardware front, and is following an August that had a $249 price cut. Software launches are good though, with Borderlands 3 being one of the biggest releases of the year.

PS4 weekly average rise is +62% with the smallest rise being +33% (2017) and the largest rise of +127% (2014). Without 2014, it averages out to +46%.

Nintendo
The 3DS averages a rise of +22% with the smallest rise being +9% (2012) and the largest rise being +29% (2013). 3DS was actually pretty consistent in weekly rises.

Switch is in contention for the largest non holiday month since the PS4’s 538K in September 2014, if not exceeding that thanks to the launch of the $199 Switch Lite. After an impressive August thanks to the launch of the improved Switch showing that demand is still high for the product right before the Lite’s launch, signs point to both models selling well without siphoning sales from each other.

On top of that, GameStop ran a trade in deal for both the Switch and Lite for the Lite’s launch week, where you could get a Switch Lite for basically free. (A max of $225 trade in towards the $199 device, and $250 towards Switch)

In addition, Link’s Awakening looks to be one of the biggest launches in September, and might possibly be a top Switch launch for the year before Pokemon launches.

Recap
September is almost always an improvement in weekly average. Not much else besides that if there isn’t much going on, the increase might be small, but don’t be surprised by massive improvements either.

The biggest September ever recorded during the 7th gen was the Wii with 687K back in 2008. Second biggest? Xbox 360 with 528K back in 2007.

The biggest September ever recorded during the 8th gen was the PS4 with 538,000 in 2014. Second biggest? PS4 again with 425K in 2018.
 

WestEgg

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,798
[NSW] 485K
[PS4] 205K
[XB1] 115K

Any rumblings on Dragon Quest in North America?
 

Peek-a-boo!

Member
Oct 30, 2017
1,682
Woodbridge
[NSW] 480K
[PS4] 210K
[XB1] 140K

Seeing as I have been out of the loop lately, any rough idea of what each console has done Year to Date?
 

Peek-a-boo!

Member
Oct 30, 2017
1,682
Woodbridge
This is from leaks + number 1 predictors. Just a rough estimate:

Switch — 2318K
PlayStation 4 — 1600K
Xbox One — 1101K
An estimated 718,000 (30%) difference between the Switch and the PlayStation 4 (which will likely increase between 900,000 and 1,000,000 after the launch of the ‘Switch Lite’ this month), and a 500,000 (37%) gap between the PlayStation 4 and the Xbox One.

We’re now entering this Christmas season ( 🎄 ) where the gap gets bigger between the three; depending on if Sony goes down the $199 route again, the difference between the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One may well remain the same however, the Switch is going to go into the stratosphere after this month, up until the launch of Pokémon Sword and Shield.

Interesting Times
 

slavesnyder

Member
Oct 26, 2017
867
SlaveSnyder Media Corp.
[NSW] 545K
[PS4] 195K
[XB1] 130K

switch numbers will not only be pushed by the lite and the new, enhanced base model.
retailers also want to get rid of the old model and will lower the price of it.
 
Last edited:

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,529
I have been giving some thoughts on the Switch upcoming Black Friday promotions.

Last year they had a limited (well 500k+ units) Mario Kart 8 bundle at 300$.

Two interesting points : will they go more aggressive (which would be logical) ? and if they are dropping the price on the OG, I think that the Lite will follow suit in order to keep the 100$ price gap.

Conservative option : OG+MK8D at 300$ ; Lite+ another game at 200$ OR 250$/150$ without a game
Aggressive option : OG + MK8D at 250$ ; Lite + another game at 150$
 

pld

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,155
150 for the Lite and a game is too early considering it just launched last month. I think we might see OG Switch + 2 games for 300 and Lite + game for 200 USD.
 
Nov 2, 2017
2,281
Italy
No way the sell Switch lite under 199$ this year, they probabily gonna do some bundle or promotion with Switch lite at 219/229$ with a game or something.

Switch OG at 250$ i can see that happen.
 

m051293

Member
Oct 29, 2017
261
I have been giving some thoughts on the Switch upcoming Black Friday promotions.

Last year they had a limited (well 500k+ units) Mario Kart 8 bundle at 300$.

Two interesting points : will they go more aggressive (which would be logical) ? and if they are dropping the price on the OG, I think that the Lite will follow suit in order to keep the 100$ price gap.

Conservative option : OG+MK8D at 300$ ; Lite+ another game at 200$ OR 250$/150$ without a game
Aggressive option : OG + MK8D at 250$ ; Lite + another game at 150$
Conservative option for this year; Lite is brand new and overall NSW HW sales will be at a record for the gen in a calendar year.

Maybe price cut next year. $250/150 in holiday 2020 is going to be a hell of a contrast next to the next-gen boxes at potentially $499+.
 

Welfare

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,835
Mario Kart is easy bundle fodder for Nintendo handhelds. Switch Lite with Mario Kart 8 at $199 should be expected this Black Friday.

Might even be a new color specifically for the bundle.

If not Mario Kart then maybe Link's Awakening since Mario Kart again for OG Switch at $299 might lower sales potential.
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,529
Mario Kart is easy bundle fodder for Nintendo handhelds. Switch Lite with Mario Kart 8 at $199 should be expected this Black Friday.

Might even be a new color specifically for the bundle.

If not Mario Kart then maybe Link's Awakening since Mario Kart again for OG Switch at $299 might lower sales potential.
Maybe Smash for the OG et MK8D for the Lite.

Could work wonders imo.
 

Mbolibombo

Member
Oct 29, 2017
3,282
switch lite with carry case and 25$ e-shop voucher is my guess.
Something in the line of this is what I expect, Switch Lite is a brand new system, already at an affordable price and it's nintendo we're talking about.. they havnt exactly been agressive with their pricing of the Switch since they really havnt been forced to do so. I think that's what we're gonna see next year - to have systems at a very very attractive price compared to the other brand new launched systems.
 

m051293

Member
Oct 29, 2017
261
Wall below.

---------------

We know that USA NSW spending in Aug19 was up YoY based on NPD from last month (Aug18 was ~203K). Unverified leak on VGC boards pegs it at 240-260K, which lines up with NPD's report (which did not give magnitude of shift). So all we can really say is that Aug19 NPD was mid 200K.

Based on Famitsu figures, trend in Japan was large launch for Lite but then base model shone stronger in week 4 and 5 of Sep period.


Weekly average for the NSW was +33.9% from Aug19 > Sep19. The JP narrative would seem to be that we hit [A] Critical mass of SW releases with the Jul-Sep release schedule that boosted up the base model substantially. NSW-Lite had a monster launch but will pick up more significant momentum later on (w/Pokemon launch / holidays / AC launch in 2020).

*If we hold the assumption that the Lite was always going to be relatively stronger in the JP market than the US market, the following should be reasonable:

Relative impact (US vs. JP) of [A] on total NSW SEP sales is greater
Relative Impact (US vs. JP) of on total NSW SEP sales is weaker

If the above are true, my expectation would be that the base NSW will see a larger weekly rise from Aug > Sep in the US than JP (also aided by new SW).

Using 220-250K as the range for AUG19, we get a weekly range of 55-63K, and applying a marginally higher weekly jump than JP of +35%, puts the SEP weekly average at 74-84K.

We don't have anything definitive on the Lite model's sales aside from Benji's point that Day 1 Lite sales were ahead of Sun-Fri Base sales for the same week going by the data he has visibility on. I don't think the launch week Lite:Base ratio of almost 3:1 that we saw in JP will hold here based on the assumption* above. I am going to go with a 3:2 ratio instead, which puts launch week sales at 110-125K. 60% drop in the week following that and then holding that figure for the final week.

That puts us at 45-51K for the Lite in the last two weeks of the period.

Base: 370-420K
Lite: 200-233K

Total: 570-653K


---------------

In conclusion I think everyone is under-predicting, heh :).
 

Welfare

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,835
Wall below.

---------------

We know that USA NSW spending in Aug19 was up YoY based on NPD from last month (Aug18 was ~203K). Unverified leak on VGC boards pegs it at 240-260K, which lines up with NPD's report (which did not give magnitude of shift). So all we can really say is that Aug19 NPD was mid 200K.

Based on Famitsu figures, trend in Japan was large launch for Lite but then base model shone stronger in week 4 and 5 of Sep period.


Weekly average for the NSW was +33.9% from Aug19 > Sep19. The JP narrative would seem to be that we hit [A] Critical mass of SW releases with the Jul-Sep release schedule that boosted up the base model substantially. NSW-Lite had a monster launch but will pick up more significant momentum later on (w/Pokemon launch / holidays / AC launch in 2020).

*If we hold the assumption that the Lite was always going to be relatively stronger in the JP market than the US market, the following should be reasonable:

Relative impact (US vs. JP) of [A] on total NSW SEP sales is greater
Relative Impact (US vs. JP) of on total NSW SEP sales is weaker

If the above are true, my expectation would be that the base NSW will see a larger weekly rise from Aug > Sep in the US than JP (also aided by new SW).

Using 220-250K as the range for AUG19, we get a weekly range of 55-63K, and applying a marginally higher weekly jump than JP of +35%, puts the SEP weekly average at 74-84K.

We don't have anything definitive on the Lite model's sales aside from Benji's point that Day 1 Lite sales were ahead of Sun-Fri Base sales for the same week going by the data he has visibility on. I don't think the launch week Lite:Base ratio of almost 3:1 that we saw in JP will hold here based on the assumption* above. I am going to go with a 3:2 ratio instead, which puts launch week sales at 110-125K. 60% drop in the week following that and then holding that figure for the final week.

That puts us at 45-51K for the Lite in the last two weeks of the period.

Base: 370-420K
Lite: 200-233K

Total: 570-653K

---------------

In conclusion I think everyone is under-predicting, heh :).
OG Switch is boosted by the launch of Dragon Quest and the bundle of it. US had no equivalent boost for September, so you are trying to guess US sales based on an outlier.

Switch Weeks 1-3 + 5 = 241,284 / 4 = 60,321 / 53,325.5 = +13%

55-63K * 1.13 = 62,150-71,190 * 5 = 310,750 - 355,950

Range of 310,750 - 355,950 + 200-233K Switch Lite = 511K - 589K

I'm pretty much predicting 200K Switch Lite's were sold in September, and anywhere between 275K-300K OG Switch's sold.

Also remember that for August US sales, the improved Switch was out all month and helped the baseline that whole time, as opposed to Japan where the improved Switch launched in the last week of August and helped all of September. So basically the effect on sales are a month apart. Better to assume the weekly average will be flat or around that instead of following Japan's increase.
 
Last edited:

m051293

Member
Oct 29, 2017
261
OG Switch is boosted by the launch of Dragon Quest and the bundle of it. US had no equivalent boost for September, so you are trying to guess US sales based on an outlier.

Switch Weeks 1-3 + 5 = 241,284 / 4 = 60,321 / 53,325.5 = +13%

55-63K * 1.13 = 62,150-71,190 * 5 = 310,750 - 355,950

Range of 310,750 - 355,950 + 200-233K Switch Lite = 511K - 589K

I'm pretty much predicting 200K Switch Lite's were sold in September, and anywhere between 275K-300K OG Switch's sold.

Also remember that for August US sales, the improved Switch was out all month and helped the baseline that whole time, as opposed to Japan where the improved Switch launched in the last week of August and helped all of September. So basically the effect on sales are a month apart. Better to assume the weekly average will be flat or around that instead of following Japan's increase.
Mostly agreed, but I think there is still uncertainty.

Other/additional things to consider:

-Did the revision impact 4/4 weeks in the US or did it release mid-month? If the latter, that would back-load August US sales a bit, meaning late Aug weekly average is higher than overall average (and thus flat from that is still an elevated level).
-Forgot about the DQ bundles - definitely agree there
-DQ SW is a positive effect in both markets but obviously orders of magnitude more impact in JP
-Zelda SW may be an even stronger factor in the US (biggest launch of the year for the platform for 1-3 week time-frame it looks like).
-Oct SW slate has more appeal in US market than JP market so preemptive sales effect would be stronger (this is probably subjective/open to argument)
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,529
OG Switch is boosted by the launch of Dragon Quest and the bundle of it. US had no equivalent boost for September, so you are trying to guess US sales based on an outlier.

Switch Weeks 1-3 + 5 = 241,284 / 4 = 60,321 / 53,325.5 = +13%

55-63K * 1.13 = 62,150-71,190 * 5 = 310,750 - 355,950

Range of 310,750 - 355,950 + 200-233K Switch Lite = 511K - 589K

I'm pretty much predicting 200K Switch Lite's were sold in September, and anywhere between 275K-300K OG Switch's sold.

Also remember that for August US sales, the improved Switch was out all month and helped the baseline that whole time, as opposed to Japan where the improved Switch launched in the last week of August and helped all of September. So basically the effect on sales are a month apart. Better to assume the weekly average will be flat or around that instead of following Japan's increase.
Agreed with what you said even though I expect Zelda to have a greater impact on hardware in the US.
 

Welfare

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,835
Mostly agreed, but I think there is still uncertainty.

Other/additional things to consider:

-Did the revision impact 4/4 weeks in the US or did it release mid-month? If the latter, that would back-load August US sales a bit, meaning late Aug weekly average is higher than overall average (and thus flat from that is still an elevated level).
-Forgot about the DQ bundles - definitely agree there
-DQ SW is a positive effect in both markets but obviously orders of magnitude more impact in JP
-Zelda SW may be an even stronger factor in the US (biggest launch of the year for the platform for 1-3 week time-frame it looks like).
-Oct SW slate has more appeal in US market than JP market so preemptive sales effect would be stronger (this is probably subjective/open to argument)
Improved Switch was an early August release. By the end of the month, sales were probably on a downward trend as is common for the August to September transition when nothing new comes out.

Dragon Quest is not big in the US and doesn't move hardware here. Orders of magnitude in hardware would be +0 in the US and +100,000 in Japan

Zelda most likely moved consoles, but that could be helping the Lite much more than OG Switch.

Luigi's Mansion 3 is the only release that will move units in a meaningful way in October, and that is still nearly a month away. September wouldn't see any increase from people buying a Switch early for stuff like Overwatch or Witcher 3, which would still be 2 weeks away from the end of September's tracking, and even then won't bump hardware anyway. Ring Fit might do something, but it should be treated like LABO until we see results, and even then the type of consumer this would attract would only buy a Switch at the game's launch or after, not before.

Switch can easily do more than I expect, but with a new hardware launch I wouldn't want the messaging to be to expect huge and be disappointed with big, instead of expect big and be happy with huge.

And even then when you start hitting the 500K mark in a non holiday month you can't really complain.