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September 2019 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, October 15th

MrTired

MrTired

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,229
How many units has Xbox one sold lifetime to date in the US? I ask because the number CNBC gave doesn't add up. The 47 million estimate would mean the Xbox has sold more outside the US than inside the US if I remember correctly.
 
Zorg1000

Zorg1000

Banned
Jul 22, 2019
1,750
Lelouch0612 said:
I have been giving some thoughts on the Switch upcoming Black Friday promotions.

Last year they had a limited (well 500k+ units) Mario Kart 8 bundle at 300$.

Two interesting points : will they go more aggressive (which would be logical) ? and if they are dropping the price on the OG, I think that the Lite will follow suit in order to keep the 100$ price gap.

Conservative option : OG+MK8D at 300$ ; Lite+ another game at 200$ OR 250$/150$ without a game
Aggressive option : OG + MK8D at 250$ ; Lite + another game at 150$
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Switch Lite +$35 eShop card-$199.99
Switch+Mario Kart 8-$299.99 (available all holiday season vs just Black Friday last year)
 
Welfare

Welfare

Prophet of Truth - You’re my Numberwall
Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,912
MrTired said:
How many units has Xbox one sold lifetime to date in the US? I ask because the number CNBC gave doesn't add up. The 47 million estimate would mean the Xbox has sold more outside the US than inside the US if I remember correctly.
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As of the end of Q2 2019, ~25.36M

Ratio isn't actually bad. ~54% of sales in the US. XB1 has been in the 55-58% range for years.

It's just an estimate, of course.
 
ShellshockPrime

ShellshockPrime

Member
Oct 28, 2017
156
Bronx, NY
[NSW] 500k
[PS4] 230k
[XB1] 115k

Switch Lite is going to give the Switch a huge boost, which is why I'm going with my prediction!

I'm expecting Link's Awakening to make it into the top 5, and Dragon Quest XI S to make it somewhere in the top 20.
 
James

James

Member
Oct 25, 2017
271
US
shark97 said:
I think I get it. This makes me want to guess strategically, not to try to win, but to try to pin down the numbers better :) I'm just afraid you have to know the winner first to do that?

I wish the guy with parametric equations was around. I started to investigate how to do them myself since he's not around, but didn't get very far at a glance.

If we pretend these numbers are real (obviously not) and compare to what we had for August 2018 and do the year over year percentage drops we get:

Switch: +18%
PS4 - 9%
Xbox -49%
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I tried to ping Liabe Brave to look things over for us, but I didn't get a reply. It's not impossible I am on their ignore list. I was kind of an asshole to a few people at the end of 2017 when I was having some major problems in my life.

I was able to look at some public information myself and narrow down the possible range for August results a bit.

It should be something like:
NSW: 235000 - 262500
PS4: 180000 - 195000
XB1: 97500 - 102500

The margins are pretty wide because I only have a few pieces of info added. I did test my method against some leaked results and it seems to work.

I also ran it for the past couple months since the leaks stopped.

For July I got:
NSW: 246500 - 259000
PS4: 175500 - 184500
XB1: 95500 - 109500

For June I got:
NSW: 342000 - 352500
PS4: 187500 - 229500
XB1: 157500 - 165000

There are some other public data I could add as well as another calculation I could run which might narrow it down a bit more, but it probably wouldn't make a huge difference. I will probably try it some time when I have an extra minute.
 
Limabean01

Limabean01

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,664
WA, australia
James said:
I tried to ping Liabe Brave to look things over for us, but I didn't get a reply. It's not impossible I am on their ignore list. I was kind of an asshole to a few people at the end of 2017 when I was having some major problems in my life.

I was able to look at some public information myself and narrow down the possible range for August results a bit.

It should be something like:
NSW: 235000 - 262500
PS4: 180000 - 195000
XB1: 97500 - 102500

The margins are pretty wide because I only have a few pieces of info added. I did test my method against some leaked results and it seems to work.

I also ran it for the past couple months since the leaks stopped.

For July I got:
NSW: 246500 - 259000
PS4: 175500 - 184500
XB1: 95500 - 109500

For June I got:
NSW: 342000 - 352500
PS4: 187500 - 229500
XB1: 157500 - 165000

There are some other public data I could add as well as another calculation I could run which might narrow it down a bit more, but it probably wouldn't make a huge difference. I will probably try it some time when I have an extra minute.
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This is great. In an era where numbers are scarce, it's important to have this kind of thing around, and we can hopefully take this to a decently accurate point. Thank you for your work!!!!
 
MrTired

MrTired

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,229
Bosch said:
Nah they had 40 million. End of 2018. They didn't sell 7 million in 2019. These numbers are wrong. Probably around 43 million right now. Xbox one will not get to 50 million for sure.
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ZhugeEX being the source for the 40 million. It says in the article that the data is from the IDC, International Data Corporation.

I believe if I recall correctly that the IDC is the market research firm that got their PS4 numbers wrong despite Sony officially announcing it about three months before the IDC report.
 
Bosch

Bosch

Banned
May 15, 2019
3,680
MrTired said:
ZhugeEX being the source for the 40 million. It says in the article that the data is from the IDC, International Data Corporation.

I believe if I recall correctly that the IDC is the market research firm that got their PS4 numbers wrong despite Sony officially announcing it about three months before the IDC report.
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Exactly
 
slavesnyder

slavesnyder

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,127
SlaveSnyder Media Corp.
MrTired said:
ZhugeEX being the source for the 40 million. It says in the article that the data is from the IDC, International Data Corporation.

I believe if I recall correctly that the IDC is the market research firm that got their PS4 numbers wrong despite Sony officially announcing it about three months before the IDC report.
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honestly, who is more trustworthy here?
personally, i would always prefer a company called International Data Corporation over Sony, which is just a single, non-american source with no deeper insight into the US market. also, Sony is rumored to be highly biased towards the Playstation brand, so why should we believe in their numbers.
IDC, in contrast is just soaked and pumped up with competence as a corporation who can sophisticately handle even the most international data, no matter which.
 
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only_fools_&_horses

only_fools_&_horses

Banned
Jan 17, 2019
964
MrTired said:
ZhugeEX being the source for the 40 million. It says in the article that the data is from the IDC, International Data Corporation.

I believe if I recall correctly that the IDC is the market research firm that got their PS4 numbers wrong despite Sony officially announcing it about three months before the IDC report.
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Its odd when Zhuge said that X1 has sold little over 6 million in whole 2018 ( 41 mil. LTD ) worldwide and suddenly is 48 mil. LTD stated by IDC. So, 7 million in 10 months, but in last Q report X1 sales were down almost 50%, Q before that 33%.

Anyway :

[NSW] 410K
[PS4] 210K
[XB1] 95K
 
Welfare

Welfare

Prophet of Truth - You’re my Numberwall
Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,912
Zhuge said to not take his 41M as a way to estimate YTD 2018 sales.

And the IDC figure looks to be their estimate on shipped, not sold through.
 
julian

julian

Member
Oct 27, 2017
16,744
[NSW] 494K
[PS4] 201K
[XB1] 125K

....what does it matter? I suck at this. Lol.
 
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Limabean01

Limabean01

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,664
WA, australia
i have a question.

would it be wrong/bannable to talk about supposed 'leaks'/estimates from a certain chartz website here...?
obviously not the numbers that the site itself pulls out of nowhere, but:
Hidden content
You need to reply to this thread in order to see this content.
 
Bosch

Bosch

Banned
May 15, 2019
3,680
slavesnyder said:
honestly, who is more trustworthy here?
personally, i would always prefer a company called International Data Corporation over Sony, which is just a single, non-american source with no deeper insight into the US market. also, Sony is rumored to be highly biased towards the Playstation brand, so why should we believe in their numbers.
IDC, in contrast is just soaked and pumped up with competence as a corporation who can sophisticately handle even the most international data, no matter which.
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What is this??
 
Welfare

Welfare

Prophet of Truth - You’re my Numberwall
Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,912
Limabean01 said:
i have a question.

would it be wrong/bannable to talk about supposed 'leaks'/estimates from a certain chartz website here...?
obviously not the numbers that the site itself pulls out of nowhere, but:
[Hidden content]
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Don't bother, it's just using the top 3 predictors to come up with a range.
 
Shock32

Shock32

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,677
slavesnyder said:
honestly, who is more trustworthy here?
personally, i would always prefer a company called International Data Corporation over Sony, which is just a single, non-american source with no deeper insight into the US market. also, Sony is rumored to be highly biased towards the Playstation brand, so why should we believe in their numbers.
IDC, in contrast is just soaked and pumped up with competence as a corporation who can sophisticately handle even the most international data, no matter which.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Not bad, Not bad at all. :)


[NSW] 410k
[PS4] 205k
[XB1] 135k
 
Andromeda

Andromeda

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,844
Less then 4 hours to make your prediction guys. We need more predictions to statistically have a better predictor.
 
Xevross

Xevross

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,048
Andromeda said:
Less then 4 hours to make your prediction guys. We need more predictions to statistically have a better predictor.
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Yeah I was thinking about this earlier, since the #1 predictor is the only numbers we're getting I guess its about time I actually started partaking in this to help boost the numbers.

[NSW] 530K
[PS4] 240K
[XB1] 135K
 
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