Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of August and September. This is where comparing weekly averages is better than simple month to month because September is a 5 week month while August is only 4. I have gathered high selling software and any hardware deals for September to help show how the month might be impacted. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts.
Code:
2012
Xbox 360 August: 193K / 4 = 48,250
Xbox 360 September: 270K / 5 = 54,000
Weekly average +12%
PS3 August: 143K / 4 = 35,750
PS3 September: 201K / 5 = 40,200
Weekly average +12%
3DS August: 179K / 4 = 44,750
3DS September: 243K / 5 = 48,600
Weekly average +9%
Notable Events in September
Xbox 360
Madden NFL 13 [5 weeks]
Borderlands 2 [2 weeks]
PS3
PS3 Super Slim $269 [1 week]
Madden NFL 13 [5 weeks]
Borderlands 2 [2 weeks]
Code:
2013
Xbox 360 August: 96K / 4 = 24,000
Xbox 360 September: 179K / 5 = 35,800
Weekly average +49%
PS3 August: 71K / 4 = 17,750
PS3 September: 216K / 5 = 43,200
Weekly average +143%
3DS August: 130K / 4 = 32,500
3DS September: 209K / 5 = 41,800
Weekly average +29%
Notable Events in September
Xbox 360
Grand Theft Auto V [3 weeks] [>4.06m]
Diablo III [5 weeks] [335,500]
PS3
Grand Theft Auto V 500GB bundle $269 [3 weeks] [~130k]
Grand Theft Auto V [3 weeks] [>2.81m]
Kingdom Hearts HD 1.5 Remix [4 weeks] [273,000]
Diablo III [5 weeks] [205,000]
3DS
Special Blue Xerneas & Yveltal Pokemon XY XL $199 [2 weeks]
Special Red Xerneas & Yveltal Pokemon XY XL $199 [2 weeks]
Code:
2014
Xbox One August: 159K / 4 = 39,750
Xbox One September: 284K / 5 = 56,800
Weekly average +43%
PS4 August: 190K / 4 = 47,500
PS4 September: 538K / 5 = 107,600
Weekly average +127%
3DS August: 91K / 4 = 22,750
3DS September: 140K / 5 = 28,000
Weekly average +23%
Xbox 360 August: 50K / 4 = 12,500
Xbox 360 September: 74K / 5 = 14,800
Weekly average +18%
PS3 August: 27K / 4 = 6,750
PS3 September: 46K / 5 = 9,200
Weekly average +36%
Notable Events in September
Xbox One
1 free game with every Xbox One purchase [Destiny week]
Destiny [4 weeks] [<945K]
Middle-earth: Shadow of Mordor [1 week] [<144K]
PS4
Destiny White 500GB model $449 [4 weeks] [300K]
Destiny [4 weeks] [<891K]
Middle-earth: Shadow of Mordor [1 week] [<207K]
3DS
Super Smash Bros. 3DS Special Themed Blue + Black $199 [3 weeks]
Super Smash Bros. 3DS Special Themed Red + Black $199 [3 weeks]
Super Smash Bros. 3DS [1 week]
Xbox 360
Call of Duty: Ghosts + Call of Duty: Black Ops II 500GB bundle $249 [3 weeks]
Destiny [4 weeks] [<621K]
PS3
Destiny 500GB Bundle $269? [4 weeks]
Destiny [4 weeks] [<243K]
Code:
2015
Xbox One August: 200K / 4 = 50,000
Xbox One September: 292K / 5 = 58,400
Weekly average +17%
PS4 August: 208K / 4 = 52,000
PS4 September: 354K / 5 = 70,800
Weekly average +36%
3DS August: 77K / 4 = 19,250
3DS September: 123K / 5 = 24,600
Weekly average +28%
Notable Events in September
Xbox One
Best Buy - Trade in Last Gen console and get $150 towards Xbox One [9/27-10/3]
Gamestop Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $100 towards Xbox One [9/15-9/20]
Forza 6 Limited 1TB bundle $399 [3 weeks]
FIFA 16 bundle 1TB $399 [3 weeks]
NBA 2K16 [1 week] [>429k]
Destiny: The Taken King [3 weeks] [>227k]
FIFA 16 [2 weeks] [<214k]
Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain [5 weeks] [<184k]
PS4
Destiny: The Taken King White Bundle $399 [3 weeks] [<173k]
NBA 2K16 [1 week] [>572k]
Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain [5 weeks] [<552k]
FIFA 16 [2 weeks] [<292k]
Destiny: The Taken King [3 weeks] [>216k]
3DS
2DS $99 [5 weeks]
Animal Crossing Happy Home Designer Special Themed White New 3DS bundle $219 [2 weeks]
Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer [2 weeks]
Code:
2016
Xbox One August: 275K / 4 = 68,750
Xbox One September: 333K / 5 = 66,600
Weekly average -3%
PS4 August: 160K / 4 = 40,000
PS4 September: 285K / 5 = 57,000
Weekly average +43%
3DS August: 142K / 4 = 35,500
3DS September: 172K / 5 = 43,000
Weekly average +21%
Notable Events in September
Xbox One
Free game with any Xbox One S bundle purchased [Amazon/Best Buy/Gamestop/Target] [9/25 - 10/1]
Xbox One S Minecraft 500GB bundle $299 [2 weeks]
NBA 2K17 [2 weeks]
FIFA 17 [1 week]
Forza Horizon 3 [1 week]
PS4
PS4 $299 [4 weeks]
PS4 Slim 500GB $299 [3 weeks]
NBA 2K17 [2 weeks]
FIFA 17 [1 week]
3DS
Galaxy Special Themed Purple XL Bundle $199 [5 weeks]
Code:
2017
Xbox One August: 116K / 4 = 29,000
Xbox One September: 180K / 5 = 36,000
Weekly average +24%
PS4 August: 181K / 4 = 45,250
PS4 September: 300K / 5 = 60,000
Weekly average +33%
Notable Events in September
Xbox One
Destiny 2 [4 weeks]
NBA 2K18 [3 weeks]
FIFA 18 [1 week]
PS4
PS4 Pro Destiny 2 1TB Limited Bundle $449 [4 weeks]
Destiny 2 [4 weeks]
NBA 2K18 [3 weeks]
FIFA 18 [1 week]
Code:
2018
Switch August: 206K / 4 = 51,500
Switch September: 260K / 5 = 52,000
Weekly average +1%
Xbox One August: 165K / 4 = 41,250
Xbox One September: 175K / 5 = 35,000
Weekly average -15%
PS4 August: 197K / 4 = 49,250
PS4 September: 425K / 5 = 85,000
Weekly average +73%
Notable Events in September
Switch
Gamestop Deal - Trade in select consoles and get up to $275 towards Switch Offer valid 9/16/18 - 9/22/18
Mario Tennis Aces + 1, 2, Switch Bundle $359 [Walmart] [5 weeks]
Fortnite Bundle $299 [1 week]
NBA 2K19 [4 weeks]
Nintendo Labo: Vehicle Kit [4 weeks]
FIFA 19 [2 weeks]
Dragon Ball FighterZ [2 weeks]
Super Mario Party [1 week]
Xbox One
Xbox One S NBA 2K19 1TB Bundle $299 [4 weeks]
Xbox One X NBA 2K19 Bundle $499 [4 weeks]
Xbox One X Shadow of the Tomb Raider 1TB Bundle $499 [Best Buy] [4 weeks]
Xbox One S Forza Horizon 4 1TB Bundle $299 [MS Store] [1 week]
Xbox One X Forza Horizon 4 + Forza Motorsport 7 1TB Bundle $499 [MS Store] [1 week]
Destiny 2: Forsaken Legendary Collection [5 weeks]
NBA 2K19 [4 weeks]
Shadow of the Tomb Raider [4 weeks]
FIFA 19 [2 weeks]
Assassin's Creed Odyssey [1 week]
Forza Horizon 4 [1 week]
PS4
PS4 Pro Marvel's Spider-Man 1TB Limited Bundle $399 [5 weeks]
Marvel's Spider-Man [5 weeks]
Destiny 2: Forsaken Legendary Collection [5 weeks]
NBA 2K19 [4 weeks]
Shadow of the Tomb Raider [4 weeks]
FIFA 19 [2 weeks]
Assassin's Creed Odyssey [1 week]
Code:
2019 August Weekly Averages Using #1 Predictor
Switch: ~240K / 4 weeks = ~60,000
PS4: ~180K / 4 weeks = ~45,000
Xbox One: ~90K / 4 weeks = ~22,500
Notable Events in September
Switch
Switch Lite Grey $199 [3 weeks]
Switch Lite Turquoise $199 [3 weeks]
Switch Lite Yellow $199 [3 weeks]
Gamestop Deal - Trade in select consoles and get up to $250 towards Switch and $225 towards Switch Lite Offer valid 9/15/19 - 9/22/19
The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening [3 weeks]
Dragon Quest XI S: Echoes of Elusive Definitive Edition [2 weeks]
Xbox One
Xbox One X Gears 5 Limited Edition Bundle $499 [5 weeks]
Xbox One X NBA 2K20 Special Edition Bundle $499 [GameStop] [5 weeks]
Xbox One X NBA 2K20 Bundle $499 [5 weeks]
Xbox One S NBA 2K20 Bundle $299 [5 weeks]
Xbox One X Gears 5 Bundle $499 [4 weeks]
Xbox One S Gears 5 Bundle $299 [4 weeks]
Xbox One S All-Digital Edition Sea of Thieves + Minecraft + Fortnite 1TB Bundle $249 [GameStop] [2 weeks]
NBA 2K20 [5 weeks]
Gears 5 [4 weeks]
Borderlands 3 [4 weeks]
FIFA 20 [2 weeks]
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon Breakpoint [1 week]
PS4
NBA 2K20 [5 weeks]
Borderlands 3 [4 weeks]
FIFA 20 [2 weeks]
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon Breakpoint [1 week]
Notes
September is almost always better than August in weekly averages as we are heading into the fall season and more AAA games are released. Many different franchises can launch this month so the consistency of how large sales grow can be a bit random.
Xbox
The Xbox One has had decent deals in September. 2014 had a free game week alongside Destiny's launch and 2015 had two trade in deals along with the launch of NBA (usually an October launch) and the addition of the Forza and FIFA bundles. 2016 fell slightly from August thanks to the launch of the One S at both the beginning and end of the month with different models, and even then the drop was small. 2017 only had Destiny 2 as the new major launch outside of the sports titles but that was enough for a good increase over August. 2018 suffered thanks to the GameStop having the first trade in deal for the Xbox One X in August, which lasted all month.
2019 looks to be a good transition from August to September. Madden was in July, so August sales are lower than usual, and September saw the launches of Gears 5 and Borderlands 3 in addition to staples like NBA. Xbox also flooded stores with even more bundles, 7 in total. Two of the major ones are the special edition Gears 5 and NBA bundles, four of them are standard Gears 5 and NBA bundles, and the last is an update to the Xbox One S All Digital Edition with Fortnite replacing Forza Horizon 3, which launched at GameStop for the first time. A lot of those will most likely end up not doing great, but it's clear Microsoft wants shelves to be filled in time for the next three months.
Xbox One weekly average rise is +14% with the largest drop being -15% (2018) and the largest rise of +43% (2014).
PlayStation
PS4 has done incredibly well in September. Massive hardware events such as the Destiny bundles in 2014/2015/2017, the launch of the PS4 Slim with a price cut to $299 in 2016, and the Spider-Man bundle in 2018.
2019 is quiet on the hardware front, and is following an August that had a $249 price cut. Software launches are good though, with Borderlands 3 being one of the biggest releases of the year.
PS4 weekly average rise is +62% with the smallest rise being +33% (2017) and the largest rise of +127% (2014). Without 2014, it averages out to +46%.
Nintendo
The 3DS averages a rise of +22% with the smallest rise being +9% (2012) and the largest rise being +29% (2013). 3DS was actually pretty consistent in weekly rises.
Switch is in contention for the largest non holiday month since the PS4's 538K in September 2014, if not exceeding that thanks to the launch of the $199 Switch Lite. After an impressive August thanks to the launch of the improved Switch showing that demand is still high for the product right before the Lite's launch, signs point to both models selling well without siphoning sales from each other.
On top of that, GameStop ran a trade in deal for both the Switch and Lite for the Lite's launch week, where you could get a Switch Lite for basically free. (A max of $225 trade in towards the $199 device, and $250 towards Switch)
In addition, Link's Awakening looks to be one of the biggest launches in September, and might possibly be a top Switch launch for the year before Pokemon launches.
Recap
September is almost always an improvement in weekly average. Not much else besides that if there isn't much going on, the increase might be small, but don't be surprised by massive improvements either.
The biggest September ever recorded during the 7th gen was the Wii with 687K back in 2008. Second biggest? Xbox 360 with 528K back in 2007.
The biggest September ever recorded during the 8th gen was the PS4 with 538,000 in 2014. Second biggest? PS4 again with 425K in 2018.
