Should Nintendo be worried about their future once PS5 and Xbox Scarlett release?

[Nuclear Muffin]

While Nintendo are in a comfy position with the current Switch, and are currently getting the best third party support they've gotten since the Gamecube era; it's very likely that this will not last...

With the release of PS5 and Xbox Scarlett just over the horizon (with a release on November 2020 looking likely for PS5 at least); how long will it take for third parties to leave the PS4/Xbone and Switch behind in the dust?

Given that it will probably be impossible for Nintendo to release a new version of the Switch that will be powerful enough to receive downports from the new set of HD Twins in any reasonable timeframe... what will Nintendo do?

They are not capable of lifting a HD platform all by themselves, as was overwhelmingly proven by the Wii U. They need third party support to keep themselves going; but it's very likely that they will get dropped like a stone the moment that PS4/Xbone support stops (which will probably come as early as around March 2022).

So what do they do? Do they ride out the storm until mobile hardware catches up and enables them to make a new Switch that is similarly below the competition, in terms of specs, as now? (which could take anywhere between 2-4 years after the PS5 comes out)

Do they go for a supplemental computing approach? Like in the old patent? (Where the dock basically includes an external GPU)

Do they give up on the hybrid concept and just make a boring, generic box like everyone else?

Do they keel over, give up and just leave the console market for good?

Do they go handheld only? Or just give up and just start making nothing but F2P mobile titles?

What do they do?

 

[metalslimer]

The Switch is not selling based on PS4/One downports.

 

[Hucast]

If they make a good premium follow up for the switch that is graphically close to ps4 then I would say not really

 

[Deleted member 5491]

Switch is working because of the hardware itself, Nintendos own games and great Indie support.
Don't really see that changing, even less when they can also bring out a Pro version

 

[Sub Boss]

They will be fine

 

[ILikeFeet]

Ain't like the switch was gonna get PS4/XBO games in the first place, so...

 

[Deleted member 10551]

Not at all. Switch audience and PS/Xbox audience are completely different.

 

[Raijinto]

I think they'll just release Mario Kart 9 and it'll be a big deal.

Just a hunch.

 

[Knight in Shining Armani]

The only thing they need to be "worried" about is third party AAA support. Those ports will be dead in 2021 unless they bring out a beefy upgrade.

 

[Herb Alpert]

What will be different ?

 

[steviestar3]

Nintendo is doomed. Again

 

[alexi52]

Why would they, the switch is currently the fastest selling console while being the weakest console

 

[808s & Villainy]

Sounds more like you're worried
Switch was only getting a fraction of PS4/XBO ports as it is

Also

They are not capable of lifting a HD platform all by themselves, as was overwhelmingly proven by the Wii U. They need third party support to keep themselves going; but it's very likely that they will get dropped like a stone the moment that PS4/Xbone support stops (which will probably come as early as around March 2022).

Click to shrink...

By that point we'll have the Switch's successor (it'll have been 5 years)

 

[Deleted member 17207]

I'd say they only need to worry if the prices are a little too close for comfort - but I imagine what's what the rumoured new "versions" are for. Sell a portable version for 199 while the new PS system is selling for 399 or 499, etc.

 

[Sub Boss]

Nintendo will make Switch 2 with decent PS4 and Xbox ONE ports eventually, current Switch is selling very well with the support it has, they should be more worried about the STADIA

 

[CopyOfACopy]

Indies and Evergreens, same as always

 

[EdwardTivrusky]

I mean Nintendo usually do their own thing rather than follow MS & Sony so as long as they continue to do that then i'll continue to support them.
We don't need three companies doing the same thing.

 

[Kyoufu]

lol

Nintendo has carved their own niche and are performing extremely well regardless of what PlayStation/Xbox does.

So no.

 

[Eumi]

Why do you think that the impressive but far worse ports of PS4/XB1 games are the reason for the Switch's success?

Are you actually basing that on anything?

 

[LegendofLex]

The only games that are really gonna suffer from PS5/Next Xbox are AAA games, most of which are already skipping Switch anyway.

I don't see a significant change from the current situation.

 

[bsigg]

Switch success says no.

 

[chrisPjelly]

Nobody buys a Nintendo for third party games at this point.

Nonetheless, it would be sad to see support from interesting companies (i.e. Bethesda and ID software) stop once it becomes impossible to downport to a satisfactory degree. There's still a market for portable versions of those games, and I do hope that Nintendo has a more future proofed machine coming sooner than later.

 

[entremet]

A resounding NO.

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

By that point we'll have the Switch's successor (it'll have been 5 years)

Click to shrink...

Yes, there's a good chance that it probably will be out by then... but there's no way that it'll be powerful enough to receive downports (unless something big changes with their console design)... putting them right back in the same situation they were in with the Wii U...

Nintendo can't survive on their own. The droughts will kill them, just like it killed the Wii U.

 

[Dan Thunder]

I think they've wisely carved out their own part of the games market and left MS & Sony to fight over the rest.

A lot of indie games are selling most copies on the Switch so there's no reason for them to suddenly drop that, especially when Nintendo's system will have more units in gamers hands than either next-gen machine for a good few years.

 

[jph139]

The Wii U's failure was never a software issue, it was just unattractive hardware. It might have had a software quantity issue, but that's not something that the Switch has to deal with.

 

[Deleted member 36708]

Nope. They are in the best position they have been in years. Hopefully they don't mess that up. It is on them though and nothing to do with Sony or Microsoft and what they offer.

 

[Sagadego17]

Yes, there's a good chance that it probably will be out by then... but there's no way that it'll be powerful enough to receive downports (unless something big changes with their console design)... putting them right back in the same situation they were in with the Wii U...

Nintendo can't survive on their own. The droughts will kill them, just like it killed the Wii U.

Click to shrink...

what drought? this year alone has lot of games worth owning this year!

 

[Deleted member 135]

I am a Switch owner and I bought it knowing that what third party games there are will likely completely dry up after the 9th gen starts.

But still, Metroid Prime 4 so I'm okay.

 

[sph3re]

Are PlayStation and Xbox making portable home consoles?

Then no.

 

[Dymaxion]

It's going to be ok. Nintendo has Pokémon, Mario, Animal Crossing, and Zelda.

 

[Deleted member 16025]

The Switch serves an audience that doesn't necessarily care about PS5 and Xbox and all that. It can't last forever of course, but games look pretty good on the Switch (look at Hellblade!) and the 1st Party stuff is what drives that system anyway. It'll be fine. Being able to get downports of PS4/Xbox stuff helps, but isn't the heart of the system.

 

[KcebAnier]

Nintendo Runs on Five Year Hardware Cycles. By the time the PS5 and XBS are starting to be adopted, Nintendo will be preparing to announce their next console.

 

[Sgt. Demblant]

Nintendo should have started worrying about shit back in the 1910s.
They'll survive. Somehow.

 

[Eolz]

People thought the Switch couldn't compete with the PS4 and the X1, that the Wii couldn't compete with the 360 and PS3, some laughed at the DS, others believed that the Vita would kill the 3DS, so...
They don't care that much about their competition, for better and for worse. Lots of overreaction about a generational leap.

 

[808s & Villainy]

Yes, there's a good chance that it probably will be out by then... but there's no way that it'll be powerful enough to receive downports (unless something big changes with their console design)... putting them right back in the same situation they were in with the Wii U...

Click to shrink...

Well their console design seems to be to collaborate with Nvidia who currently produce among the most powerful mobile chips out there. We know with the Switch they simply went with the existing Tegra X1s (which a lot of people speculate they got as part of a deal since the Shield was bombing). We also know they plan to partner with Nvidia for the next decade or so (I forget the exact period) so I think it's safe to assume the next Switch will be more custom built

 

[Neoxon]

The only thing they need to be "worried" about is third party AAA support. Those ports will be dead in 2021 unless they bring out a beefy upgrade.

Click to shrink...

This. Nintendo will have to rely more heavily on first party games & indie games going into 2021. This basically sounds like the Wii U situation, but hopefully their combined console/handheld software output may help pick up some of the slack.

 

[Thera]

I am not even sure Nintendo was worried about Wii U

 

[Rockstar]

 

[Kouriozan]

Does the Switch gets most AAA games? No and that would not change with next gen coming.
It's still pretty much indies / AA with the rare old AAA ports.

 

[KINGOFSHIBUYA Ltd.]

No.

Just like how they didnt worry the other billion times things they weren't involved with happened around them.

They're going to do them.

Spoiler

Nah, they're doomed. 3rd party any day now.

 

[Normal]

Switch is hardly getting any big AAA games. The only one I can think of is MK.

The Switch only audience is happy with Nintendo games, indie games, and those niche Japanese (NIS) games. So I don't see the more powerful consoles really affecting the Switch.

 

[Lizardus]

Ah yes, the famous Nintendo fanxiety. Nothing will change. Switch will still get the same amount of "big games" it is getting right now.

 

[Jaded Alyx]

OP assumes devs will be ignoring the PS4/XBO userbase from day 1 and will move on to strictly "next gen" games.

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

The Wii U's failure was never a software issue, it was just unattractive hardware. It might have had a software quantity issue, but that's not something that the Switch has to deal with.

Click to shrink...

Do you realise that Nintendo have actually only put out 12 first party games (not counting Labo; and generously counting Smash Ultimate and Splatoon 2 amongst the "original" titles) that aren't Wii U ports throughout the entirety of the Switch's lifetime so far?

That's nothing! They can't rely on Wii U ports forever; and they need third parties to fill in those gaps! They cannot survive on their own! Wii U is living proof of that! (As is the early death of Wii).

They need a solution!

 

[cw_sasuke]

Not really - the system is selling based on exclusives and indie. At the same time Nintendo is gonna upgrade their hardware every 3 years, so the Switch will shorten the gap in due time again.

Also most developers can't afford to skip out on +200m PS4/XBO/NSW system Go exclusively Next-Gen asap. Not happening.

 

[tolkir]

This thread will be a good necrobump on Christmas.

 

[Hailinel]

One day, scientists will create a cure to Nintendoomed.

 

[CaptNink]

Have they ever? Nintendo will be fine as always.

 

[Deleted member 8593]

Once Nintendo sees what can be done on PS5 and XTWO, they will be so shook that they don't release a single game anymore so I think you might be onto something here.

One day, scientists will create a cure to Nintendoomed.

Click to shrink...

But none of us will live to witness it.