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Simon Says Mafia - I would never lie to you, please do what I say

malus

Member
Oct 30, 2017
852
Switzerland
Some thoughts on people that voted SalvaPot:

Apollo - #1,589 : Still confirmed town
TheChuggernaut - #1,591 : Not sure what the goal was of switching to Salva. If he is scum, maybe he realized that it would look really bad for him when Fran flipped town and so switched hoping somebody else would break the tie by voting for Fran.
Meatwad - #1,603 : Honestly probably looks the worst of all votes. Not much reasoning given, and pretty much just following the confirmed town.
exodus - #1,652 : This is a bit tricky. This vote only makes sense if exodus is town or both he and TheChuggernaut are scum. Why would scum exodus switch all his reads to vote for Salva, when he could just as well have voted TheChuggernaut instead for whom he had made a case earlier?

So right now I could see the following scum teams based on those observations:

exodus + TheChuggernaut: TheChuggernaut switched to not look bad when Fran would flip, but didn't expect Meatwad to follow. Later exodus voted Salva to prevent TheChuggernaut from being lynched by another tiebreaker. I feel if exodus is scum, his scum partner would have to be TheChuggernaut.

Meatwad + Fran: His vote on Salva looks especially bad, but why would he switch in the last minute? Possibly he was busing his teammate Fran and saw an opportunity to still save him when TheChuggernaut switched his vote. As Meatwad said himself, he wouldn't have a reason to switch if he weren't on a team with Fran.

TheChuggernaut + EzekelRAGE: I feel like this would be the only reasonable scum partner for TheChuggernaut who is not exodus. Swamped I already explained yesterday, Fran seems unlikely due to their interactions yesterday and today. Chugg/Meatwad team makes no sense in light of what happened at eod. This team is in my opinion the least likely one, because I quite heavily town read Zeke.
 

Fran

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,297
Meatwad + Fran: His vote on Salva looks especially bad, but why would he switch in the last minute? Possibly he was busing his teammate Fran and saw an opportunity to still save him when TheChuggernaut switched his vote. As Meatwad said himself, he wouldn't have a reason to switch if he weren't on a team with Fran.
Meatwad was the vote that put me in the lead. Why didn't he voted for Swamped or Chuggs instead?

This were the votes before Meatwad:

Fran (3 votes)
FluxWaveZ - #1,410
EzekelRAGE - #1,478
TheChuggernaut - #1,482

Swamped (2 votes)
exodus - #1,412
SalvaPot - #1,418

TheChuggernaut (2 votes)
Fran - #1,427
malus - #1,438
Voting for me was very risky if he was my scum partner. It would have been very difficult to save me if noone changed their votes.
 

malus

Member
Oct 30, 2017
852
Switzerland
Meatwad was the vote that put me in the lead. Why didn't he voted for Swamped or Chuggs instead?

This were the votes before Meatwad:



Voting for me was very risky if he was my scum partner. It would have been very difficult to save me if noone changed their votes.
Hm, good point. That leaves only exodus + TheChuggernaut or TheChuggernaut + Zeke as possible scum teams with at least one member voting Salva. I don't see why Meatwad would vote for Salva without going into wifom speculations.
 

malus

Member
Oct 30, 2017
852
Switzerland
Or maybe Meatwad expected exodus to vote for TheChuggernaut or Fran based on his previous reads and wanted to get away from Fran in fear of the town flip.
 

malus

Member
Oct 30, 2017
852
Switzerland
Or maybe Meatwad expected exodus to vote for TheChuggernaut or Fran based on his previous reads and wanted to get away from Fran in fear of the town flip.
I now realize that this is almost the exact same reason I gave for TheChuggernaut switching his vote. But this one would be more risky, since it brought Salva to tie with TheChuggernaut and took Fran out of the race.

Anyway you look at it, I feel the most likely scum on Salva has to be TheChuggernaut.

vote: TheChuggernaut
 

Swamped

Member
Oct 25, 2017
546
Hm I feel like D2 EOD still doesn't tell us much, unless someone else can glean something from it? All I see is that meatwad never put down a vote.



I do think that meatwad's voting pattern EOD D4 is very weak. Fran is his first vote of the day.

So you don’t trust that the game is properly balanced Fran? Why would a townie be frustrated over the game being overly balanced towards town? I didn’t see the Faddy lynch as town “fucking up” I saw it as a calculated risk based on Faddy’s claims and in the end we were rewarded for that. Nobody in Town should be frustrated at that outcome.

Of course scum on the other hand well they would have every reason to be annoyed about what happened with Faddy.

Fran your frustration sounds like scum frustration

VOTE: Fran
Yeah this makes sense and I’ve been second guessing my fran vote anyway

VOTE: SalvaPot
None of his posts in between these two show that he is beginning to doubt his Fran scum read. In fact, he doubles down on Fran's frustration with the game balance being a scum tell. So his Salva vote feels like it comes out of nowhere. If meatwad really is scum I could see him doing this to save scum partner Fran whom he was initially ok bussing. I've seen Fran's criticism to this. And all I can say is bus timings are critical as scum. Don't want to catch the train too late.
 

Swamped

Member
Oct 25, 2017
546
Why do you want me specifically to go after chuggs?

I feel I questioned chuggs a decent amount already. Why don’t you dive deeper yourself on chuggs?

If you townread chuggs, I don’t understand why you would want me to go more in on him.
Because I think you are better at asking him questions than I am. I will of course be going through his posts but I feel like you have less of a blindspot for him than I do. Teamwork!
 

Meatwad

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
2,196
USA
Hm I feel like D2 EOD still doesn't tell us much, unless someone else can glean something from it? All I see is that meatwad never put down a vote.



I do think that meatwad's voting pattern EOD D4 is very weak. Fran is his first vote of the day.





None of his posts in between these two show that he is beginning to doubt his Fran scum read. In fact, he doubles down on Fran's frustration with the game balance being a scum tell. So his Salva vote feels like it comes out of nowhere. If meatwad really is scum I could see him doing this to save scum partner Fran whom he was initially ok bussing. I've seen Fran's criticism to this. And all I can say is bus timings are critical as scum. Don't want to catch the train too late.
Nah if I was scum with Fran I would have stuck with killing Fran knowing I would come out the other end smelling like roses. I mean switching to Salva was already monumentally stupid but it would be even worse if I was scum and actually knew who was town and who wasn't
 

Fran

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,297
But the problem with that is the first vote. At the time I was in the lead with 3 and Chuggs and you had 2. Would scum give his only partner a 2 votes lead on a weekend? If there were another scum member who could help him create a new wagon, maybe. But we know there are only 2 scum members left and I wasn't around.

It was definitely a very risky move for scum to vote for me when Meatwad did if we are both scum. He is settling me as the lead lynch. If anyone else jumps on it I'm done.

I still think that scum was afraid to be in trouble after my flip so looking at who pushed for my wagon and why will lead to scum. And the 2 that looks worse are Chuggs and Meatwad.
 

Swamped

Member
Oct 25, 2017
546
I hear ya Fran. But I still think a bus swerving into a townie is not unheard of. We don't know what kind of scum powers are still floating, but I can bet one of them is lynch related. So bussing is always a possibility, but if the chance presents itself to get a townie, why not? Now the scum team can win in 2 mislynches when it could have taken longer.

Of course, meatwad+Fran is not the only possible scum team, but it's a probable one.

I'm still thinking.
 

Swamped

Member
Oct 25, 2017
546
I'll only vote for Fran again if TheChuggernaut votes for Fran.
So someone with no strong opinions and regularly backtracks on the ones they do have, and is generally agreeable all-around will make you lean town towards them? This is why I'm saying that this trust is going to go poorly for you.
Towards the end there Flux is really started to push Chuggs a fair bit. Is that the reason he died?
 

Swamped

Member
Oct 25, 2017
546
Because I’d 100% know it would land me here. And scum me would rather continue trying to fly under the radar than invite this level of scrutiny on myself.
You'd know 100% it would land you here? Before you knew Salvapot's flip? When, to every townie, he's still Schoedinger's cat?

Heck of a weird slip

VOTE: Meatwad
 

Swamped

Member
Oct 25, 2017
546
I'm also in general not seeing too much scumhunting from meatwad, it's been more defense. that's probably because people are questioning him, but that doesn't stop one from trying to figure out people's alignments.

I'm also starting to cool of on my malus scumread a bit. Just a bit.
 

Swamped

Member
Oct 25, 2017
546
Because you would have looked really bad after my flip. Jumping into a wagon another player created Is less suspicious.

But I have to admit is a weak justification. As I said before, EOD yesterday was weird. I didn't understand the reasons for changing votes for most of the players. I think that scum was pushing for my lynch and got afraid that my flip would incriminate them. It's the only thing that make sense to me.

I think the player who look worse yesterday is Meatwad.
Bolded is my emphasis. This may be so, but remember that there are only two scum players left. Are you saying that both were on your vote? And then got cold feet once they realized that this could be a sure lynch? One scum pushing for your lynch wouldn't be so bad right, as the rest of the players on that train would be town.
 

Fran

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,297
Bolded is my emphasis. This may be so, but remember that there are only two scum players left. Are you saying that both were on your vote? And then got cold feet once they realized that this could be a sure lynch? One scum pushing for your lynch wouldn't be so bad right, as the rest of the players on that train would be town.
If scum team is Meatwad and Chuggs maybe they were trying to counterwagon Chuggs.

Just look at this:

Votes were me:2, you:2 and Chuggs:2. Triple tie. Chuggs unvotes Salva and votes me. That puts me in the lead.

Fran (3 votes)
FluxWaveZ - #1,410
EzekelRAGE - #1,478
TheChuggernaut - #1,482

Swamped (2 votes)
exodus - #1,412
SalvaPot - #1,418

TheChuggernaut (2 votes)
Fran - #1,427
malus - #1,438
But both you and Chuggs are still possibles lynchs. Then Meatwad comes and votes for me. That put me:4, you:2 and Chuggs:2. That settles me as the leading wagon.

Then Exodus votes Chuggs making the vote: me:4, you: 1 and Chuggs: 3. Now there are just 2 wagons: Me and Chugger.

Apollo creates a new wagon: Salva. Maybe they were worried that the offvotes wouldn't vote for me and jump to Chuggs or they are afraid of looking bad after I flip.

Chuggs votes Salva and now it's: Me:3, Chuggs: 3, Salva: 2 and you:1. Why did Chuggs change his vote to Salva to put him in the lead with me? Maybe because he knew that a partner could break that tie? It's weird the lack of selfpreservation.

Exo voted for you and makes it: Me: 3, Chuggs: 2, Salva: 2 and you:2.

Then Meatwad change is vote and makes Salva the leading wagon: Me:2, Chuggs:2, Salva:3 and you:2.

I'm thinking that scum knew that they could be in trouble with the Exodus vote because they were close to me and they were afraid where the offwagon votes would go. When the oportunity appeared they jumped on a new wagon to see if they could push it and see if they can get some votes out of them into it.

PD: Fireblend new voting tool is amazing and the timeline is extremely useful. Thank you again, Febe!!
 
Oct 25, 2017
12,326
If scum team is Meatwad and Chuggs maybe they were trying to counterwagon Chuggs.

Just look at this:

Votes were me:2, you:2 and Chuggs:2. Triple tie. Chuggs unvotes Salva and votes me. That puts me in the lead.



But both you and Chuggs are still possibles lynchs. Then Meatwad comes and votes for me. That put me:4, you:2 and Chuggs:2. That settles me as the leading wagon.

Then Exodus votes Chuggs making the vote: me:4, you: 1 and Chuggs: 3. Now there are just 2 wagons: Me and Chugger.

Apollo creates a new wagon: Salva. Maybe they were worried that the offvotes wouldn't vote for me and jump to Chuggs or they are afraid of looking bad after I flip.

Chuggs votes Salva and now it's: Me:3, Chuggs: 3, Salva: 2 and you:1. Why did Chuggs change his vote to Salva to put him in the lead with me? Maybe because he knew that a partner could break that tie? It's weird the lack of selfpreservation.

Exo voted for you and makes it: Me: 3, Chuggs: 2, Salva: 2 and you:2.

Then Meatwad change is vote and makes Salva the leading wagon: Me:2, Chuggs:2, Salva:3 and you:2.

I'm thinking that scum knew that they could be in trouble with the Exodus vote because they were close to me and they were afraid where the offwagon votes would go. When the oportunity appeared they jumped on a new wagon to see if they could push it and see if they can get some votes out of them into it.

PD: Fireblend new voting tool is amazing and the timeline is extremely useful. Thank you again, Febe!!
It's a fun theory, but this just comes across as the riskiest thing if I'm scum. Like this doesn't at all account for someone getting spooked and voting for me like Flux did and then if Exodus voted me anyway, I just go myself lynched for no reason when I just could of held steady on your lynch. Salva's flip didn't make me look any better either so that makes the play even dumber.
 

Fran

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,297
It's a fun theory, but this just comes across as the riskiest thing if I'm scum. Like this doesn't at all account for someone getting spooked and voting for me like Flux did and then if Exodus voted me anyway, I just go myself lynched for no reason when I just could of held steady on your lynch. Salva's flip didn't make me look any better either so that makes the play even dumber.


Pedro what will happen when there are no more modifiers for Simon to use?
 

Fran

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,297
As soon as I saw that comic I knew that it would be useful in mafia. I just never thought that I had to use it on myself.
 

Meatwad

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
2,196
USA
You'd know 100% it would land you here? Before you knew Salvapot's flip? When, to every townie, he's still Schoedinger's cat?

Heck of a weird slip

VOTE: Meatwad
What? If I was scum I would know 100% please read what I am saying and don’t misconstrue my posts and attempt to turn them into something else
 

exodus

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,889
The tables have turned. Chug and Swamped, who were my main 2 scum suspects, are now my strongest town reads.

I think I'm just really bad at this game.
 
Oct 25, 2017
12,326
We should start trying to get some votes down now that we’re getting closer to EoD, but I would also be careful with that double vote, Exodus. Might be easy for scum to stack there
 

exodus

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,889
Why is he a town read?
Because he's one of the few actively participating and scum hunting. He doesn't really seem to be trying to protect anyone. The biggest knock against him for d2-d3 is he was mostly going with the flow and following everyone else. He's taking a much more active role now. Other than that, I don't feel like he's done anything particularly scummy.
 

Meatwad

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
2,196
USA
Ok so having gone over the thread I have come to several conclusions

1. I fully believe Fran and EzekelRAGE are town, since they come across as sincere in trying to solve the game. Especially Zeke as he has been quite active and has regularly questioned everybody

No I have compiled some notes of what I have observed

Swamped
Readily belives Faddy's roleclaim day three

exodus
Puts a vote for me as Simon for reasons even I can't explain
Switches Simon vote to Swamped
Back and forth on whether or not Faddy is scum
doublevotes Salva
Calls Govenor a scum power, even though that would be unbalanced as hell
Hammers Salva even though he mostly town read him throughout the game

EzekelRAGE
Votes himself Simon upfront before realizing he can't do that

Fran
Hammers DCPat Day 2
very critical of Faddy and his roleclaim day 3

Apollo
claimed day vig and shot cabot
Double votes Malus day 2

TheChuggernaut
Listens to Faddy and Doublevotes DC Pat day 2
Townreads Faddy all day day 2
ready to join Faddy in a Meatwad Lynch
Basically sheeps faddy up to his death
questions Slava's vote on Malus day 4 and counters with a vote on Salva, makes an accusation Malus is being set up for a mislynch
first to jump on the Salva Wagon started by Apollo

malus
claims he would vig kill Salva if he could day 2
drops a doublevote on Salva day 2
Cabot votes Malus for Simon
doubts Faddy's roleclaim
refuses to hammer Faddy even though he scum read him all day

Chuggs comes across especially bad in a re-read because there are two points where he very opportunistically follows a townie's suggestion to lynch another townie. First when Faddy suggests lynching me even though that suggestion was absurd. and second when Apollo brings up Salva as a lynch Chuggs is right there with the rope. I'm most confident Chuggs is scum here

As for his partner I'm leaning towards either Malus or Exo but I'm leaning more towards Malus. Malus has been very careful to just come across as nuetral, He is very careful to maintain a presence and offer opinions but not to stir the pot by actively scum hunt or offer controversial opinions

Exodus looks bad because of the Salva lynch but I'm warming up to the idea of him actually being town, I'd say neutral on exo right now

Swamped I just don't have a good read

So my current reads

Swamped Neutral
Exodus Neutral
EzekelRAGE Town
Fran Town
Apollo Town
TheChuggernaut Scum
malus Scum
 

exodus

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,889
Swamped was doing some funny stuff D3. Finding any excuse to lynch anyone and avoiding the Faddy talk altogether.
 

malus

Member
Oct 30, 2017
852
Switzerland
As for his partner I'm leaning towards either Malus or Exo but I'm leaning more towards Malus. Malus has been very careful to just come across as nuetral, He is very careful to maintain a presence and offer opinions but not to stir the pot by actively scum hunt or offer controversial opinions
That seems like a weird conclusion, considering I have quite vehemently advocated a Chuggernaut lynch.
 

Fran

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,297
Activity is really bad now.

Let's see if we can get more action here:

Vote: Meatwad

I want to vote between Malus, Chugger and Meatwad.
 
OP
OP
Pedro

Pedro

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
1,433

Swamped

Member
Oct 25, 2017
546
He's actually been pretty consistent in his reads, especially regarding you. It also feels like he's looking for clues about people's alignments, which is a good sign. Still, the points I brought up the previous day phase concern me.

What? If I was scum I would know 100% please read what I am saying and don’t misconstrue my posts and attempt to turn them into something else
Yep, I apologized for misunderstanding your quote. I still scumread you though <3

I might be with you.

If Meatwad is scum, who would his partner be?
Fran. It pains me to say this but Chuggs is also a possibility. If Fran is town, it could be that meatwad was trying to save Chuggs end of D4.

Question is, is a meatwad/malus team a possibility? Both had interactions with cabot on D1. Neither has really spoken with each other throughout the game. There isn't as much evidence for this partnership though.

So my current reads

Swamped Neutral
Exodus Neutral
EzekelRAGE Town
Fran Town
Apollo Town
TheChuggernaut Scum
malus Scum
Thanks for this post! And maybe I have my scum-tinted glasses on, but this reads list feels sooo scummy to me lol. There are only 2 scum left. Why even have neutral reads at all in this list? This feels like you're leaving room to vote for either me or exo if it comes down to it.

I also want to bring something else up about meatwad.

He was adamant about not getting the Simon power D1.

I have no idea what that role entails. Sounds like a lotta responsibility
Any townie should want this role, but I can see taking a backseat if you were a PR. This was kind of a breadcrumb. BUT we are D5 now and I'm fairly sure all our PRs are out in the open, or should be by now. This breadcrumb never panned out. I think meatwad didn't want the role because he is scum.

I’m just bringing things back up to the attention of the class. I mainly want her to chime in on her actions D3.
I talked about it on D3. I believed Faddy mainly because of the timing of his roleclaim. It genuinely felt like he was doing it for the good of town, having seen DC's power in action. I just couldn't see it as a scum move. Now this is tangential, but I also think the Faddy lynch would have been an easy mislynch for at least one of the scum to hide behind:

💀 Faddy (6 votes)
exodus - #766
💀 FluxWaveZ - #970
💀 SalvaPot - #1,015
Meatwad - #1,147
Fran - #1,193
malus - #1,219

Flux and Salva were town, pretty sure Exo is too.
Now, would both scum be on this lynch? My inclination is no, but happy to hear reasons why they could be.
Which leaves Zeke, Apollo and Chuggs.
Ohmygod Chuggs are you scum
 

Fran

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,297
Any townie should want this role, but I can see taking a backseat if you were a PR. This was kind of a breadcrumb. BUT we are D5 now and I'm fairly sure all our PRs are out in the open, or should be by now. This breadcrumb never panned out. I think meatwad didn't want the role because he is scum.
He also said this about being a PR D3:

While I would love to find out how you just “knew” I was a PR on night 1, I am done playing this game with you. I am not going to make a claim as I don’t believe that is in the best interest of the town. Badgering a townie into roleclaiming is not solving the game either I might add.
He keeps saying that he is a PR but it's again a claim. Now would be a good time for it.

If I'm partner with Meatwad why would he vote for me yesterday making me the sole lynch leader? And why I'm pushing for his lynch today?
 

Swamped

Member
Oct 25, 2017
546
He also said this about being a PR D3:



He keeps saying that he is a PR but it's again a claim. Now would be a good time for it.



If I'm partner with Meatwad why would he vote for me yesterday making me the sole lynch leader? And why I'm pushing for his lynch today?
Thanks for bringing that D3 quote to light. Interesting.
You certainly have put down a vote for meatwad. I think his flip can tell us a lot.
 
Oct 25, 2017
12,326
Yeah, I was wondering that too about the Meatwad claim. Faddy kind of pushed him on that and we got to be all "FADDY ARE YOU ROLE FISHING?!" but then nothing has really come from it and it's super late game? If Meatwad is a PR, it doesn't seem to be helping town at all