Single Player Games Are Not Dead, But Their Economics Are 'Complicated'- Shannon Loftis

Deleted member 249 · Oct 25, 2017

Gamespot said:
Xbox boss Shannon Loftis, who heads up Xbox Publishing for first-party games, believes single-player-only games aren't dead but they do have questions to face around their economic viability. Speaking to GameSpot today, Loftis said the demand by gamers for higher quality experiences comes with a price tag. While storytelling is still of paramount importance, the economics of single-player-only titles is "complicated" in today's industry due to the dramatic and constant evolution of the game market.

"Game development in general is about a couple of things. It's about delivering and experience and it's about telling stories. Storytelling is as central to game development as it ever has been," Loftis said.

There are of course strong examples of compelling single-player-only games that have performed well in the market, such as Bethesda's Fallout 4, Sony's Horizon: Zero Dawn, and Microsoft's own Ori series, Loftis pointed out. But overall, Loftis said the call for higher-quality experiences can result in a big production budget. The suggestion is that some publishers might be understandably spooked putting so much money into a project when their return is not as much a sure-thing as it could be for a product with more potential revenue streams beyond the initial game sale.

"I don't think that it's dead per se," Loftis said about the market for exclusively single-player games. "I do think the economics of taking a single-player game and telling a very high fidelity multi-hour story get a little more complicated. Gamers want higher fidelity and they want higher resolution graphics."

Full article at the link.

Totally disagree with this, by the way. If companies like Atlus and Platinum can make quality single player games such as Persona 5 and NieR Automata that are incredibly well received by players and manage to do well with ~2 million copies sold, I don't think this is an excuse that flies at all.

RexNovis · Oct 25, 2017

I liked Ori as much as the next guy but putting up as an equivalent to Horizon and Fallout is so ridiculous. For one the monetary investment in development was nowhere close and for another the scope is just not even in the same league. When people are talking about single player games being in danger they are usually talking about 3D games not 2D sidescrolling games. So the fact the Shannon is saying even low investment 2D side scroller titles like Ori are now somehow too risky for publishers says it all about their priorities

And yes as OP points out it is feasible to develop fantastic single player experiences without massive budgets. The problem I'd publishers don't see a big enough ROI for these titles not that they are inherently more or less risky than GAAS titles. Especially when the later is rapidly becoming a very crowded market and encouraging people to spend more time on even fewer games which means less money spread around to the less successful entries.

Seiniyta · Oct 25, 2017

in EA's case it wasn't really necessarily that it wouldn't make a profit. But that the return in investment wasn't sufficient to what they desire in comparison to what a multiplayer centric game with micro transactions can provide.

KZXcellent · Oct 25, 2017

AAA SP games either need to scale down so their games are as ridiculously expensive to make, or they need to charge more for them. SP games can do well for themselves and we've seen it with recent Japanese releases. If publishers can't make a profit off a SP game with a $60 Price Tag and DLC/Season pass then something has to change with these games. I don't think the answer is making less SP games.

Of course the big controversy with this comes from EA backing out of the Visceral Star Wars game. In the end I'm not too surprised on this because I've yet to get a good SP experience from EA this gen yet. That's just me tho.

wapplew · Oct 25, 2017

Project with 2 million sales target don't even get green light by big publisher.
They'll out spend the competition by raising expectations of $60 games until your SE/Altus can't compete.

Dash · Oct 25, 2017

AAA's are finally beginning to die, but as long as Indies continue to deliver rich SP experiences I won't be worrying too much. So much bloat in a lot of high profile releases these days.

Trago · Oct 25, 2017

If we're talking AAA single player, then she has a point. Games like Persona and Nier don't cost nearly as much to develop as Horizon. That said, at least from a first party perspective, there's maybe an incentive to invest in big single player games. Those kind of games could attract users to your platform. We're drowning in GAAS titles as we speak. It'd be cool for Microsoft to put out something that sets them apart from the current market trend of GAAS and multiplayer heavy games, and that's single player stuff.

Oreiller · Oct 25, 2017

Phantom Thief said:
Totally disagree with this, by the way. If companies like Atlus and Platinum can make quality single player games such as Persona 5 and NieR Automata that are incredibly well received by players and manage to do well with ~2 million copies sold, I don't think this is an excuse that flies at all.

Not to downplay Persona 5 and Nier Automata's success but 2 million copies sold would be considered a flop for a big AAA. Interesting statement though, I mostly agree with her.

Yasuke · Oct 25, 2017

Her problem is she (mistakenly) equates "single player gaming experience" with a gargantuan budget. That can be the case, but I think we've had games that struck a fine balance between wanting to tell a high quality story and needing to keep costs down. Hell, indie titles tell some of the best stories around these days.

I do think there's a conversation to be had on just how little the price of a game has changed relative to how much budgets have increased, though.

Deleted member 249 · Oct 25, 2017

Oreiller said:
Not to downplay Persona 5 and Nier Automata's success but 2 million copies sold would be considered a flop for a big AAA. Interesting statement though, I mostly agree with her.

That's exactly what I am getting at- she seems to imply that large scale AAA is the only path for single player games, I'm saying that doesn't have to be the case. You can make a smaller scale quality single player game (a reminder that P5 is the highest rated game this year, except for BotW) and still be profitable with lower sales.
This is without me getting into the fact that honestly, as a platform holder, it is Microsoft's job to have loss leaders and add diversity to their library, but that's a whole different discussion.

Robin · Oct 25, 2017

We've been down this road so many times though, I just seriously seriously doubt single player AAA games are going anywhere.

Derrick01 · Oct 25, 2017

Hard to take what she says seriously when the company line is to stuff what few games they still make with multiplayer, absurd amounts of MTs and loot boxes and stripping features away slowly with each new game to encourage more buying.

Single player can always be successful you just need to budget things properly. I know that's a wild concept but if Japanese companies can consider 2 million sales of something like Nier a wild success then surely the west can figure out how to emulate that process. Sony was able to get horizon out for around $50 million not just because of outsourcing or where it was developed but also because they came up with new ways to design the land that resulted in a cheaper method without players noticing any draw backs. This is what you have to do in today's market, you have to be creative. Or just take the easy road out and make yet another games as a service MMO lite game.

MBS · Oct 25, 2017

We are quickly moving towards F2P-lootbox based AAA games and that's gonna become the norm sooner than later. Vote with your wallet.

Namyu · Oct 25, 2017

There will be plenty of companies that make singleplayer games, there's really not much to worry about. Even some AAAs will continue with it.

Oreiller · Oct 25, 2017

Phantom Thief said:
That's exactly what I am getting at- she seems to imply that large scale AAA is the only path for single player games, I'm saying that doesn't have to be the case. You can make a smaller scale quality single player game (a reminder that P5 is the highest rated game this year, except for BotW) and still be profitable with lower sales.
This is without me getting into the fact that honestly, as a platform holder, it is Microsoft's job to have loss leaders and add diversity to their library, but that's a whole different discussion.

I misunderstood your point then, sorry, it seems we are not in disagreement.

Frostman · Oct 25, 2017

I mean..... this year is a pretty good statement for single player games, considering the success and quality of most of them. Of course production budgets are rising, and they will continue to do so, but good games sell and that is what this year has proven.

I would never have believed that Nier Automata would sell 2 million before release.

Alo0oy · Oct 25, 2017

Horizon will end up being one of the best selling titles this year, so...

Deleted member 437 · Oct 25, 2017

I always feel like the hardware makers have to take the hits, expanding the audience and making them happy. Sony focuses on SP games, and the third parties handle the gaas games. Nintendo to a lesser degree.

MS is going "fuck it" I guess? And just making gaas games as well?

Deleted member 249 · Oct 25, 2017

Oreiller said:
I misunderstood your point then, sorry, it seems we are not in disagreement.

It's all good, I've misunderstood to a worse degree :P

wapplew · Oct 25, 2017

Alo0oy said:
Horizon will end up being one of the best selling titles this year, so...

Don't forget Zelda and soon Mario but those are first party.

Let's not forget single play campaign in big multiplayer games, those will not go away. In fact we get more and more investment with single player campaign.
FIFA added story campaign, Madden added story campaign, Titanfall 2 added huge campaign and battlefront 2 story campaign is the marketing focus.

Angelus Errare · Oct 25, 2017

I can agree with this statement to a certain extent. Some genres within the SP only sphere are definitely not going to be as prominent going forward, like sadly...immersive sims T_T

HStallion · Oct 25, 2017

How did Hellblade end up doing seeing as that was supposed to be an experiment in terms of small scale AAA?

decoyplatypus · Oct 25, 2017

The economics of AAA development have been dicey for a long time. Single-player games have it worse than multiplayer ones. I don't think this is all that controversial.

Frostman · Oct 25, 2017

wapplew said:
Don't forget Zelda and soon Mario but those are first party.

Well Shannon is head of Xbox first party, so they are in the same bracket.

Alo0oy · Oct 25, 2017

wapplew said:
Don't forget Zelda and soon Mario but those are first party.

And Ass Creed Origins, maybe even Wolfenstein.

ILikeFeet · Oct 25, 2017

Phantom Thief said:
Full article at the link.

Totally disagree with this, by the way. If companies like Atlus and Platinum can make quality single player games such as Persona 5 and NieR Automata that are incredibly well received by players and manage to do well with ~2 million copies sold, I don't think this is an excuse that flies at all.

well given that employee salaries are a lot lower than in the west, it's easier to make a case for japanese games. now, western studios can make A/AA games, but their budgets, I suspect will still be much higher. I'd love to see that though

Schlorgan · Oct 25, 2017

KZXcellent said:
Of course the big controversy with this comes from EA backing out of the Visceral Star Wars game. In the end I'm not too surprised on this because I've yet to get a good SP experience from EA this gen yet. That's just me tho.

Titanfall 2?

The_Inquisitor · Oct 25, 2017

Everything is cyclical. GaaS is the new hotness but it will eventually stagnate and something new will happen.

KZXcellent · Oct 25, 2017

Schlorgan said:
Titanfall 2?

Tried the MP Beta, thought it was alright but didn't pull the trigger. I'll be getting BF2 so I'll see how that goes.

RexNovis · Oct 25, 2017

Derrick01 said:
Hard to take what she says seriously when the company line is to stuff what few games they still make with multiplayer, absurd amounts of MTs and loot boxes and stripping features away slowly with each new game to encourage more buying.

Single player can always be successful you just need to budget things properly. I know that's a wild concept but if Japanese companies can consider 2 million sales of something like Nier a wild success then surely the west can figure out how to emulate that process. Sony was able to get horizon out for around $50 million not just because of outsourcing or where it was developed but also because they came up with new ways to design the land that resulted in a cheaper method without players noticing any draw backs. This is what you have to do in today's market, you have to be creative. Or just take the easy road out and make yet another games as a service MMO lite game.

This here is the truth. Couldn't have said it better myself.

Amibguous Cad · Oct 25, 2017

We've already had this "Games as Service" fad pop up twice before, and the industry's always gone back to normal.

Not that I expect games with microtransactions to go away, but there's only so many evergreen games the indsutry can support. A given player has room for maybe a Destiny plus a League of Legends that they'll play significantly enough to be a likely convert to microtransactions before they just run out of time to invest.

This happened the last two times the industry struck on the magic formula for a sustained revenue model. Everyone wanted their own World of Warcraft, but it turned out there was room for like 1.5 subscription MMOs. Everyone wanted their League of Legends, but it turned out the market supports 2.5 of those. Now everyone wants to be Overwatch, and although the trend is more genre agnostic than the previous two, I have no doubt that the majority of devs that try to get into this space are going to get stomped in a very crowded marketplace and go back to MTs as a revenue supplementing thing rather than the main event.

EDIT: Even if they're more commercially successful than I think, as long as people want to buy single player games, people will make them. There might be room for ten or twenty or thirty AAA GaaS titles at any given moment, and they might have higher production values than the alternative, but capital is fungible and new players will move into the single player space AAAs like EA have abandoned.

Alo0oy · Oct 25, 2017

GaaS is not a fad, but some publishers are putting all their eggs in that basket which is a mistake, just do both!

Schlorgan · Oct 25, 2017

KZXcellent said:
Tried the MP Beta, thought it was alright but didn't pull the trigger. I'll be getting BF2 so I'll see how that goes.

I meant the SP. It was great. Best FPS SP of the gen, next to New Order.

wapplew · Oct 25, 2017

Frostman said:
Well Shannon is head of Xbox first party, so they are in the same bracket.

I'm sure Halo 6 will have epic single player story campaign. Same for Gears 5.
Single player games are fine,

Deleted member 249 · Oct 25, 2017

Alo0oy said:
GaaS is not a fad, but some publishers are putting all their eggs in that basket which is a mistake, just do both!

It's a fad in the sense that mobile games were a fad and supposed to kill off console games (remember that?)
That... did not work out.
GaaS will stick around, but assuming it is the One True Future™ will bite so many in the ass.

VanWinkle · Oct 25, 2017

It's okay for single player games to get a multiplayer component as long as it doesn't feel tacked on. See the Uncharted games. I just don't want meaty in-depth single player campaigns to go away.

Alo0oy · Oct 25, 2017

Phantom Thief said:
It's a fad in the sense that mobile games were a fad and supposed to kill off console games (remember that?)
That... did not work out.
GaaS will stick around, but assuming it is the One True Future™ will bite so many in the ass.

Saying mobile will kill off console games was stupid, but that doesn't mean mobile was a fad either. Both are co-existing with similar annual revenue, give or take a few billions based on the analyst.

KZXcellent · Oct 25, 2017

Schlorgan said:
I meant the SP. It was great. Best FPS SP of the gen, next to New Order.

Yeah I get you. Usually with these more MP focused games I tend to only jump in if the whole package interests me so I never ended up biting on TF2. Maybe when games start slowing down again can give it a go.

Deleted member 249 · Oct 25, 2017

Alo0oy said:
Saying mobile will kill off console games was stupid, but that doesn't mean mobile was a fad either. Both are co-existing with similar annual revenue give or take a few billions based on the analyst.

That's what I mean :P The 'fad' was the hysteria surrounding them, and them 'killing' traditional gaming, and everyone rushing to make those. That is how GaaS will end up as a 'fad' too.

StrikeFirst117 · Oct 25, 2017

Its a shame they can't find a way of making a lower budget decent singleplayer game to test the waters and see how it would do on the market.
Maybe at a reduced pricepoint which I know they tried with Recore however they need to make a much higher quality title than that for it to work.

Frostman · Oct 25, 2017

wapplew said:
I'm sure Halo 6 will have epic single player story campaign. Same for Gears 5.
Single player games are fine,

No doubt, but I think the point she is making is about entirely single player games, such as Nier, Zelda and Horizon. Whereas Halo will have a campaign as well as an online component.

Mass_Pincup · Oct 25, 2017

I understand that it's riskier to make an highly succesful big budget single player game, but I feel like a lot of them are being held back because of executive decisions.

There seems to be some common points across most of the highly succesful single player:

-Publishers allowing their studio to do their vision while pushing that game as much as possible. You can see that with Bloodborne, The Witcher 3, The Last of Us, Horizon, Nier and many others.

-Those came also aren't trying to follow industry trend for the sake of it (except maybe the multiplayer part of TLOU). They're laser focused on what they're trying to do and I feel like it shows when you play them.

Now those aren't guarentee of success, they also have to be relatively good and even then it won't be necessarily a huge money maker but I think that you can still found great success in the current state of the industry.

I also feel like the question the publishers are asking right now isn't if single player game can make money but can they make as much as multiplayer? And it's often not the case. That's the problem single player are going to fight against going forward.

Schlorgan · Oct 25, 2017

KZXcellent said:
Yeah I get you. Usually with these more MP focused games I tend to only jump in if the whole package interests me so I never ended up biting on TF2. Maybe when games start slowing down again can give it a go.

If you have EA/Origin Access, it's in the Vault. Definitely worth the $5 for the one month.

shimon · Oct 25, 2017

MBS said:
We are quickly moving towards F2P-lootbox based AAA games and that's gonna become the norm sooner than later. Vote with your wallet.

I hope to God that will not be the case. I agree about voting with our wallets though.

wapplew · Oct 25, 2017

StrikeFirst117 said:
Its a shame they can't find a way of making a lower budget decent singleplayer game to test the waters and see how it would do on the market.
Maybe at a reduced pricepoint which I know they tried with Recore however they need to make a much higher quality title than that for it to work.

Recore was their test. Higher quality need higher budget, which kill the point.

Amibguous Cad · Oct 25, 2017

Alo0oy said:
Saying mobile will kill off console games was stupid, but that doesn't mean mobile was a fad either. Both are co-existing with similar annual revenue, give or take a few billions based on the analyst.

Yeah, I don't think anyone disagrees here. I don't think GaaS is going away entirely, I just think a lot of people are going to chase the trend and get burned before we settle into a different but substantially similar equilibrium.

Deleted member 1003 · Oct 25, 2017

"Complicated economics" means if we don't put in microtransactions or loot crates then game will fail. They don't believe in letting their players pay once then move on. MS has sold a lot of SP games in the past, its just that the industry now see GaaS and can't envision game without it being some sort of service.

zsynqx · Oct 25, 2017

The Visceral situation, although more complicated than we first thought, has definitely shaken my confidence in the future of SP games. I'm glad Sony, Nintendo and Bethesda are still committed to making these types of experiences, at least for the time being.

Derrick01 · Oct 25, 2017

shimon said:
I hope to God that will not be the case. I agree about voting with our wallets though.

Me too but the outlook isn't very good. Outside of japanese companies we're mostly down to Sony's western studios who still bother to make games that don't have multiplayer or loot boxes. We'll see what Bethesda ends up doing because they've had at least 3 pretty bad sales bombs in a row (despite being good games).

and before everyone kills me with "but ___ is about to come out!", those games were started 3+ years ago. Things were pretty different in the industry even only a few years ago.

Trago · Oct 25, 2017

Derrick01 said:
Me too but the outlook isn't very good. Outside of japanese companies we're mostly down to Sony's western studios who still bother to make games that don't have multiplayer or loot boxes. We'll see what Bethesda ends up doing because they've had at least 3 pretty bad sales bombs in a row (despite being good games).

and before everyone kills me with "but ___ is about to come out!", those games were started 3+ years ago. Things were pretty different in the industry even only a few years ago.

It's slowly affecting Sony's games too. Uncharted and TLOU have multiplyer, and Bethesda's Starfield is rumored to feature online. Even Cyberpunk 2077 is supposed to have multiplayer. There's only so much time we have left before AAA single player starts getting GASS-y.

Single Player Games Are Not Dead, But Their Economics Are 'Complicated'- Shannon Loftis

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