My comprehensive breakdown of each character's chance of getting in:
I don't believe in the Koopaling theory for this. I fully think we're gonna get a King of Fighters deal where everyone fights over it and only one gets in. I'm going to break down each character and try to decide who's most likely.
Spring Man
He's the main dude. Not really special or interesting, but he's the main guy.
Things going for him (Pro):
- Represents the franchise.
- Already has a model and a lot of animations ready.
- Could be a good "combo" addition along with Ribbon girl where they each split a spot.
Things going against him (Con):
- They would have just told us already if it were him.
- They wouldn't have THIS long of a development time if it were him.
- He seems like a character you'd have at launch, not an interesting DLC inclusion.
Overall chance: Pretty good. He's the main guy, so no matter what, it's a decent chance.
Ribbon Girl
She's... the girl main character. Not really much to say.
Pro
- She's definitely in if Spring Man is in.
- Having an extra jump is smash friendly special ability.
Con
- Same cons as Springman. They wouldn't keep us in suspense if it were just her.
Chances: Pretty good. Same boat as Spring-Man.
Ninjara
The fast ninja dude. Popular online. Standard cool guy.
Pro
- He's pretty popular.
- Is the type of character Sakurai likes.
Con
- The ARMS character will almost certainly be a distance based zoner, but he's all about speed and agility. That works in the context of ARMS, but in Smash that's a massive design clash. His inclusion doesn't hold water in light of this.
Chances: Not great.
Master Mummy
The biggest, slowest bruiser of ARMS.
Pro
- Could have an interesting mummy based moveset as a surprise pick.
Con
Chances: Almost certainly not him.
Min-Min
The Ramen, kung fu girl. Very popular.
Pro
- Extremely popular as I mentioned before.
- Won the Party Crash in late 2019. May or may not mean something.
- Has a heavy emphasis on kicks in her moveset, which translates well to Smash.
Con
- Can't think of any. I don't like her though, is that a con?
Chances: Very good unfortunately.
Mechanica
The cute Robo girl.
Pro
- Unique build
- Surprising in the way the mummy is, but not quite as unlikely.
- Robot suit creates high levels of moveset potential.
Con
- Doesn't really capture the spirit of the series since it's just a regular person in a suit using robot arms, and not a weird freak with stretchy arms like most of the other characters.
Chances: Not bad, not good.
Twintelle
The extremely popular "thicc" celebrity of ARMS.
Pro
- Extremely popular.
- Has regular human hands apart from her main tools of attack, likely easier to program.
- Her slow down ability is very similar to something that's already in this games' engine.
Con
- Doesn't really represent the spirit of ARMS. Like Mechanica, she is not a weird freak with springy arms.
Chances: Very good, due to her sheer popularity and how well she'd translate into Smash.
Byte and Barq
The puppet fighter of ARMS.
Pro
- Puppet fighters aren't new to Smash. Might be a fun addition the devs would like to add as another iteration of a model the started with Rosalina.
Con
- Extremely difficult to make a character like this. Not popular enough to warrant making 2 movesets over.
Chances: Not good.
King Cobra
He's a pro sports skater snake streamer dude or something.
(Sssay that three times fast)
Pro
Con
Chances: None.
Helix
He's a slimy lab experiment.
Pro
- Potentially interesting moveset I guess?
- Piranha Plant factor as the first of the DLC character being a WTF character.
Con
- They wouldn't dare... would they?
Chances: Not impossible... and that may be enough!
Max Brass
The Jock and the original end boss. Reminds me of Captain Falcon.
Pro
- Extremely representative of ARMS while not being Spring Man.
Con
- Can't think of anything in particular. I don't think it'll be him, but I don't see why not.
Chances: Decent.
Lola Pop
The cute clown of ARMS.
Pro
- Would add much need clown representation to Smash brothers.
- Her inflation ability feels tailor made to be her counter down b.
Con
- Doesn't exactly stand out.
Chances: Not good, not bad.
Misango
The Aztec inspired masked buffer.
Pros
- This is subjective, but he just has "the look".
- His signature mechanic seems tailor made for Smash. Basically monado arts on a zoner.
- Canonically obsessed with fighting, very representative of his franchise.
Cons
- Not exactly a main character.
- Not really popular.
Chances: You know what? I think he's got a great shot. That's my hot take. He's the Dark Horse.
Springtron
Robot version of main character.
Pro
- He's a Spring Man alt potentially and that's it.
Con
- He lives and dies on Spring Man's inclusion.
Chances: Decent only because he's a robot clone of the main character.
Dr. Coyle
The "main villain" of ARMS, even though she's not really evil.
Pros
- Is a floaty, technical, zoning character that is the exact archtype any ARMS character would fall under in Smash.
- Is also obsessed with fighting and ARMS in general, captures the spirit of the franchise.
- Most moveset potential by far. Also the only ARMS character with an obvious and unique Final Smash that isn't just a punch combo (Hedlok).
- Is the best ARMS character.
Cons
- Is the "villain". Not historically a pick for DLC.
Chances: Pretty good. Not as bad as people think, I have a feeling they're not going to do what they did with Terry this time.
What do you guys think they'll do?
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