Just for some math facts: if you want to look at a scenario where TLJ is actually so repulsive that audiences completely and utterly reject it, we can actually sort of map this out hypothetically. TLJ grossed $620 million domestically, and grossed $220 million in its opening weekend. That means it made 35% of its domestic gross in the opening weekend, a common number for major studio blockbusters. Some points of comparison: Infinity War grossed 37% of its domestic total in its opening weekend; Rogue One 29%; and Captain Marvel 38% (to date). There are always some outliers, like TFA, which made 26% of its total in the opening weekend because it was a once-in-a-lifetime event, the return of Star Wars, and a real crowdpleaser. Rogue One was also a generally uncontroversial crowdpleasing movie that played well to all four corners. Notably, both TFA and Rogue One had essentially no quality competition during the critical holiday moviegoing months, whereas TLJ had to put up with a surprisingly hearty competitor in Jumanji, which was a fun crowdpleasing four-quadrant blockbuster aimed at younger audience that got strong reviews and word of mouth, damaging some of TLJ's numbers.
Do we want to look at what would have happened if TLJ actually alienated massive numbers of moviegoers? We have a case study for that. In March 2016, Batman v Superman was released. The film was massively anticipated, starring two of the biggest characters in the world. The film had essentially no competition, as rival studios feared the power of this huge blockbuster team-up. It got off to a strong start, with a $166 million opening weekend. And then it completely collapsed. Batman v Superman grossed 50% of its domestic total in its opening weekend, one of the worst numbers ever for a major blockbuster. This indicates absolutely horrible word of mouth, that the film had no legs, and that it alienated mass numbers of the audience to the point of severe financial damage.
An alternate universe where TLJ is a steaming pile of shit that alienates the entire audience and grosses half its entire total in the first 72 hours would put TLJ's final total at $440 million domestic. Assuming a similar domestic/foreign split as the real TLJ, an alternate universe shitty TLJ grosses roughly $950 million worldwide, less than half what TFA grossed and a clear disappointment for the franchise.
But hey, all these complicated facts and figures don't rack in the Youtube numbers, so we continue to live in the alternate universe where TLJ killed Star Wars and Captain Marvel was a flop.
