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Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker will gross more than $700M USD domestic. What say you?

SweetNicole

SweetNicole

The Old Guard
Member
Oct 24, 2017
6,210


Welcome one and all to the thread of fun pain fun. It is that time of year once again. A major movie release is upon us, and there perhaps is none bigger than the ending of the Star Wars Skywalker Saga. There's been a lot of hot talkers about how this movie is doomed to fail and dead on arrival, so it is time to put your money avatar on the line and make your bet.

The Rules
In the spirit of keeping things fun for everyone involved, I'd ask everyone to keep in mind the following:
  • NO BET SHAMING - This is a bet for fun and for bragging rights. Please don't shame others for their bets or shame them into honoring their bets. It is up to each person whether or not they want to prove themselves worthy of honor.
  • NO BET LIST - In the interest of keeping things low key, there won't be an official bet list of people for or against this bet. Instead, it'll simply be the honor system, and when the bet loses, if you lost, you should change your avatar to whatever the losing bet is.
  • FOR FUN - These bets are for fun. This isn't serious business. It is supposed to be a fun way for people to have investment in the Rise of Skywalker box office results and follow along if they want. If you like to talk about the Box Office, you might also like the Box Office community.
  • THIS ISN'T AN |OT| - If you want to argue or whatever about the movie, there's a great OT here for that. Please try and keep this strictly on box office returns and bets and keep the fighting elsewhere!
  • SIDE BETS ARE OK - Feel free to make side bets with others about RoS in this thread if you so desire.
The Bet Itself
  • Bets are locked December 19th. No more bets can be made or unmade at that time.
  • The bet ($700M USD domestic) is based on United States dollars and will be using the domestic (United States) box office total.
  • The losing side's avatar will be decided by the community in a poll in this thread. The avatar itself must adhere to ResetEra's rules. The avatar should be worn for a month.
  • Those who bet for the wrong side and willing put on the avatar of shame will be memorialized in a thread list for good honor and sportsmanship. The winners get the satisfaction of winning.
  • The bet itself has multiple milestones which must be completed in order for the bet to continue on without ending early. These milestones are based on The Force Awakens (highest domestic box office movie of all time) with help and guidance from kswiston and PhoncipleBone to ensure the bet doesn't last forever.
    • Milestone 1: If Rise of Skywalker has not grossed more than $650M domestic by February 1st, 2020, the bet will end at that time. (TFA only made another 40M after this.)
    • Milestone 2: If Rise of Skywalker has not grossed $690M or more domestic by March 1st, 2020, the bet will end at that time. (TFA only made another 10M after this date).
    • Milestone 3: : If Rise of Skywalker has not grossed $698M or more, the bet will end when the theater count for Rise of Skywalker is below 500 theaters. (TFA only made another 2M from this point).
    • If at any point in time Rise of Skywalker crosses $700M before the bet is terminated early, the bet will immediately end.

The Historical Breakdown

For context, the best grossing Star Wars movie domestically is the Force Awakens which came in at $936,662,225. The second best grossing Star Wars movie domestically is the Last Jedi which came in at $620,181,382.

The Original Trilogy

4 - $460,998,007
5 - $290,271,960
6 - $309,205,079

The Prequels

1 - $474,544,677
2 - $310,676,740
3 - $380,270,577

The Sequels

7 - $936,662,225
8- $620,181,382
 
OP
OP
SweetNicole

SweetNicole

The Old Guard
Member
Oct 24, 2017
6,210
Pirate Bae said:
It will for sure pass $700M.

But will it pass $1B? :thinkingemoji:
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I was going to make the bet that it would be the number one domestic movie all time (passing TFA's record of $936M), but I wanted something that was close to the mean to get a good variety on both sides of bets. I'll save my crazy 1B bet for our savior Dune.
 
Antoo

Antoo

Member
May 1, 2019
1,591
Wow, this is the first of these bets that I’ve seen that is interesting. All the other ones have been pretty pathetic with one side clearly have an edge over the other *cough* Pikachu *cough*.

I think it really depends on the quality... hmm..
 
Kuro

Kuro

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,352
Looking at the previous trilogies I guess it might hit just shy of $700m. What kind of competition does it have in Jan/Feb?
 
Ziltoidia 9

Ziltoidia 9

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,721
The story would have to be a cluster for it to not crack a billion. Like so bad that it gets out and everyone just wants TLJ to be the end in their minds.
 
Masterz1337

Masterz1337

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,711
Na, not going to make it. If TLJ didn’t this wont either, and to top it off everyone knows they will catch it on D+ later.

Also Jumanji will be there cutting its legs off.
 
Masterz1337

Masterz1337

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,711
CitizenVectron said:
Historically, SW trilogies have gone 1 > 3 >2 in terms of gross. Heck, ESB was the lowest-grossing movie of the OT.
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Yeah, I just don’t think it will be the case this time, ESB is also considered universally the best of the movies, where TLJ has been highly divisive. I am sure the internet trolls will go see it regardless, but I think others may just wait. Last I checked the pre orders on tickets came in under the estimations.
 
The Unsent

The Unsent

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,837
The people who moan about how TLJ killed the franchise and say that's why Solo flopped, probably are going to still see it, because they will want an opinion and to "get it done with" So, yeah I think it will. I don't know if it will make over a billion because it doesn't seem to have the consistent momentum of the MCU, but I think it will be close enough. The battle of the 5 armies made close to a billion and that trilogy was more criticised than even the Star Wars sequel trilogy.
 
PhoncipleBone

PhoncipleBone

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,705
Kentucky, USA


I know a lot of this is an asspull because of ticket price differences and jumps between entries, but it is fun to look at. So far the trilogies have been following very similar patterns. Will the sequel trilogy continue? Stay tuned!
 
FTF

FTF

Member
Oct 28, 2017
18,090
New York
Cheebo said:
Over TLJ and under TFA. The 40 year tradition of 1 > 3 > 2 continues.

IN.
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Yeah but anything between $620-700m dom still keeps that trend. Will root for yes but go with no. $685m.

Edit: Wait I didn't read the OP about changing Avatars, I'm just doing this for fun lol.
 
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Blue Skies

Blue Skies

Banned
Mar 27, 2019
9,224
It goes over
We’re in minor minor box office drought.
idotn think Junanji is teaching the numbers it did before
 
Crimsonskies

Crimsonskies

Alt account
Banned
Nov 1, 2019
700
Wait domestic numbers in the US for the last jedi was a 66% drop in profits from the Force Awakens that's really massive.

No way in hell will Rise of Skywalker get 700 million $ domestic
 
Soapbox Killer

Soapbox Killer

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,125
People saying 1B mean worldwide right? I'd bet me dancing naked in a cowboy hat on a subway full of Eagles fans that this wont crack 800mil let alone a billy.
 
PhoncipleBone

PhoncipleBone

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,705
Kentucky, USA
Crimsonskies said:
Wait domestic numbers in the US for the last jedi was a 66% drop in profits from the Force Awakens that's really massive.

No way in hell will Rise of Skywalker get 700 million $ domestic
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That is a mistake on my part in how I worded the chart. Apologies. Last Jedi didn’t drop 66%, it made 66%. But look at bottom of chart. If Skywalker follows same trend it will blow past $700m.
IF
 
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Soapbox Killer

Soapbox Killer

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,125
700mil aint nothing to sneeze at but anything more than that would require some kinda miracle or The Mandalorian season finale is tied to Rise of Skywalker in some crazy ass way
 
Mett

Mett

Member
Oct 29, 2017
636
Put me down for over a billion.

EDIT: I should read first. Yeah not a billion domestic. 500m
 

Seeya

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,984
For some added context the Opening weekend for ROTS has largely been revised DOWNWARDS from the initial forecasts

Typically you don’t see this with mega blockbusters. Evidence mounts that TLJ/Solo did some damage to the IP.

TFA OPENING 248m
TLJ 220m

ROTS (Projected) : 175–210m (revised downwards from
185–225m)

Another projection 200m
Yet another 205m




However it should be noted that The Last Jedi has pretty poor legs by standards of films that open that high.

In fact The Last Jedi has the worst performance of any Disney Star Wars film when it comes to its performance after the opening month.

It also has the worst performance of any Disney Star Wars film in secondary media channels relative to gross (that means the amount of DVD/BluRays etc sold in comparison to attendance/gross)

It’s pretty clear that something didn’t go right with TLJ, as repeats etc just weren’t there compared to the norm.

So it’s very possible that ROTS have the lowest opening of the three but still go on to break 700m

Worldwide though it’s all but garanteed to end up flat/under TLJ. There’s little coming back from the damage that TLJ did in key markets like China.
 

Deleted member 5666

user requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
14,753
Seeya said:
TFA OPENING 248m
TLJ 220m

ROTS (Projected) : 175–210m (revised downwards from
185–225m)

Another projection 200m
Yet another 205m
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185-225 was the tracking range from BoxOfficePro, which is a projection system they internally do, not the "official" tracking you see reported by Deadline and the like. The 175-210 from Deadline was the initial first actual tracking put out.

And to note BoxOfficePro has not downgraded that projection at all, despite downgrading other projections over the past 4 weeks since putting out that TROS range. Such as Jumanji which they have since downgraded twice.

The 175-210, 200, 205m were all from the same initial tracking report.

It has not been revised downward anywhere.

Essentially the 185-225 is BOP projection tracking number they themselves calculate, not initial tracking you see on Deadline/TheWrap/etc. Tracking was 175-210. That is not a revision down from 185-225 because BOP's projection is not part of that tracking. As you can see in BOP's latest weekly entry of their projections they never downgraded TROS once:
 
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Rogue74

Rogue74

Member
Nov 13, 2017
1,027
Miami, FL
I'm in.

Even the harshest TLJ critics will see this just to see how it ends. And no one wants to get spoiled while waiting for it to come out on digital/Blu Ray.

After that it comes down to repeat viewings. I suspect JJ understands why people were upset at TLJ and will somehow address it in this movie. That should be enough to get enough positive word of mouth to push this over 700 million.
 

Deleted member 5666

user requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
14,753
Has magic powers said:
Jumanji 3 will, not Star Wars 3
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You do realize the movie is already out in a number of European and Asian countries and is on track to finish lower than Jumanji 2. And tracking numbers and early ticket sales for Jumanji 3 domestically are very weak and is looking at a sub-250m number here...right?

We have enough numbers to know Jumanji 3 will almost certainly finish well under Jumanji 2.

At this point it has almost no chance to even come close to the 400mish the last did domestic based off the tracking and ticket sales and overseas trends let alone leap another 300m to 700m lol.
 
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Wonderment

Wonderment

Member
Oct 27, 2017
15,916
Is the movie being released earlier regionally?

Perhaps pick a UTC on the 19th to close off bets.

A good side bet would be "percentage drop in the 2nd week".

Good fortune to all!
 
BlackFyre

BlackFyre

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
2,430
I think it all depends on the reviews.
If word of mouth is good, it will do 700+
If not, it will be in the 650 range.

I'm going to say it will simply because there's no Marvel movies in the fall and action audiences havent had anything since Spiderman back in July.
 
Starphanluke

Starphanluke

Member
Nov 15, 2017
5,330
It will open under TLJ but will leg it out past TLJ's final gross and will inch just past $700m domestic.
 
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