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Where do you think Challenger #5 would be revealed at?

  • During Terry's Promo Video

    Votes: 79 23.5%
  • During the Game Award

    Votes: 194 57.7%
  • During the next Nintendo Direct

    Votes: 44 13.1%
  • During a special stand-alone live stream

    Votes: 19 5.7%

  • Total voters
    336
  • Poll closed .
Status
Not open for further replies.

Neoxon

Spotlighting Black Excellence - Diversity Analyst
Member
Oct 25, 2017
85,379
Houston, TX
I love Bayonetta in Smash, but her circumstances are suspicious as shit. https://www.sourcegaming.info/2018/07/03/bayo106/. The base code for her character was in the game 2 weeks after the ballot started. So first off, they would have had to ignore the rest of the entire ballot and just go with a character that performed well at the beginning if we assume that "winning" the ballot was a completely true comment. But the problem is, this is just the first known appearance of the data, not the actual origins of the data that would lead to Bayonetta, so she would have had to have been worked on prior to this update going live. Most updates are pushed out some time after they have been completed as opposed to the exact moment they are, so you can drop a few more days off of that tally. Which is even more of the actual run time of the ballot ignored. The poll was open until October 3rd, 2015. Data for Bayonetta was in the code as far back as June.

Not to mention, you wouldn't start work on a character unless you knew you had the license. That absolutely has to be part one of any deal, and it's not like Sega or Platinum would realistically need any proof of concept to incorporate her since Nintendo was funding her at the time, and that would be the only explanation for that if they didn't have a license. At a bare minimum, by the time Bayonetta's code appeared in the data, she had to be licensed out and a concept established that required her being built off of Zero Suit Samus as the base. Which pushes the date of the decision to include her back even further overall.

Either Nintendo ignored the overwhelming majority of their data in favor of just going with a character that performed well in the beginning and was "realizable" (which has so much wiggle room it's not even funny), or they had always intended for her to be DLC and she just worked out well enough for them. There's not really alternatives here to be honest. And again, I say this as a massive Bayonetta fan so it's not from some long term vendetta against her inclusion like some people.



See above for Bayonetta.

Sakurai has a specific vision for Smash that operates as a crossover of major gaming IPs. I can't fault anyone for that or call that vision restrictive when he's achieving stuff no other developer on the planet can really come close to. To a lot of people, what you're describing as a problem is not one. That's a big issue. I've argued about just pushing for basic meaningful representation in the form of someone like Lara Croft and been shot down before. People are more interested in supporting their favorite characters than representation, and Smash is the breeding ground for that attitude. It's not stubbornness that leads Sakurai to including, it's a combination of business (companies have their preferences and mascots that represent them best in their minds, like Terry over other female options) and pleasing the most fans/people. Elma vs Rex is the classic example. People push for Elma as "the better option" for representation purposes, but Xenoblade Chronicles X is kind of the odd duck out for a lot of people and a great deal of people prefer Xenoblade Chronicles 2 and its characters. Rex is the one who polls super well, making it much less likely that Elma will get picked (Shame in my mind, but that's on the community). You keep claiming Sakurai needs to be more flexible "like other fighting games," but that doesn't work the same way. Smash cannot create new fighters. A brand new Street Fighter character of color or of another gender is inherently equal to a white one in the creation process, so there's very little lost outside of some whiny brats possibly complaining about inclusion...

But when you start talking Terry vs. Nakoruru, or a third party character vs. a significantly more niche first party? There's tons of weight attributed to them that fundamentally changes what you're including and why. Smash's entire premise is inflexible by nature of that. There are some good options, but a great deal of them have certain opportunity costs too that are more likely to upset people (people pissed that X or Y came before Z) or be less in the interest of the involved parties (Square Enix likely prefers that Dragon Quest be in Smash over Tomb Raider given what each means to them). Again, I keep coming back to this fact that I think treating Smash like other fighting games is the wrong call. And I just haven't seen a convincing argument from you on this point yet as to why Smash should be treated along the same standards (or even higher it seems) when it seems to be a largely unique entity from those titles.

You're way too fixated on Corrin's alt. situation though. This isn't malice or stubbornness, it's just how Corrin was in Smash for Wii U, and was super easy to port over more than likely. It's not like Sakurai didn't have a million other things to keep track of and work on for the game, and I don't imagine he gave a second of thought to the idea that people would be upset about which alt. was the primary one (and I doubt he fundamentally treats them differently like you do to begin with).
I treat Smash like other fighting games because at the end of the day, it shares a number of similarities with other fighting games. Sure, it's more casual & party-based. But it has a colorful cast of characters, it has a focus of fighting others, it has a bustling competitive scene. There are differences, true. But there are also similarities. Smash may be a different breed of fighting game, but it's still a fighting game. And more than that, it's the best-selling fighting game ever. We should be asking more of Smash to do better when it comes to representation, not excusing the lack of either. Even if Smash was so far removed from the rest of the fighting game genre that it's something else entirely, that still doesn't excuse the lack of representation. Again, they should be striving to do better, not settling on their flaws.

Likewise, I'm not saying that Smash can & should create new fighters. It should capitalize on the options that exist. "Sakurai's vision", while he very clearly prioritizes protagonists & mascots, is (as I said) a restrictive one. It's him tying his hands together & claiming "Sorry, no diversity, my hands are tied". It's, again, a stubborn way to look at things (him, not you). Even if we don't go for characters like Elma or Nakoruru, there are still characters like Jill & Lara Croft to choose from. Again, options exist, but they aren't using them.
 

rayngiraffe

Member
Dec 11, 2018
1,455
Who says the placeholder meant they for sure had Cloud negotiated, though?

Like I don't necessarily think he was a ballot pick, but hypothetically I can see just putting the placeholder there while they negotiate. He wanted Cloud, he puts a Cloud placeholder, is my thought process. Its not like the placeholders are hard to change, I imagine.
I'm certain that it was Cloud or bust. You'd think it would be incredibly weird to include Black Mage/Squall/Lightning over the poster child for JRPGs, the difference is just way too big.
 
Oct 25, 2017
11,251
TIL that Banjo's down special in Japanese is literally called "Ass Egg"

188504.jpg
 

Odeko

One Winged Slayer
The Fallen
Mar 22, 2018
15,180
West Blue
I love Bayonetta in Smash, but her circumstances are suspicious as shit. https://www.sourcegaming.info/2018/07/03/bayo106/. The base code for her character was in the game 2 weeks after the ballot started. So first off, they would have had to ignore the rest of the entire ballot and just go with a character that performed well at the beginning if we assume that "winning" the ballot was a completely true comment. But the problem is, this is just the first known appearance of the data, not the actual origins of the data that would lead to Bayonetta, so she would have had to have been worked on prior to this update going live. Most updates are pushed out some time after they have been completed as opposed to the exact moment they are, so you can drop a few more days off of that tally. Which is even more of the actual run time of the ballot ignored. The poll was open until October 3rd, 2015. Data for Bayonetta was in the code as far back as June.

Not to mention, you wouldn't start work on a character unless you knew you had the license. That absolutely has to be part one of any deal, and it's not like Sega or Platinum would realistically need any proof of concept to incorporate her since Nintendo was funding her at the time, and that would be the only explanation for that if they didn't have a license. At a bare minimum, by the time Bayonetta's code appeared in the data, she had to be licensed out and a concept established that required her being built off of Zero Suit Samus as the base. Which pushes the date of the decision to include her back even further overall.

Either Nintendo ignored the overwhelming majority of their data in favor of just going with a character that performed well in the beginning and was "realizable" (which has so much wiggle room it's not even funny), or they had always intended for her to be DLC and she just worked out well enough for them. There's not really alternatives here to be honest. And again, I say this as a massive Bayonetta fan so it's not from some long term vendetta against her inclusion like some people.
And the new president is sometimes announced before the polls close in California.

Nintendo deciding to work on Bayo because she did very well in the first week and a half of the polls (likely by far the most active time) doesn't mean she didn't win. You've only provided evidence that they started early, not that they lied when they said she won.

/v/'s enormous Bayo push was right when the polls opened (I remember, I was there and voted for her because of it), so she was probably comfortably ahead at that point. If Ridley had crept past her in the ranking over time, then there's no reason to believe they wouldn't have added him too, or at least not lie to everyone and still say Bayo won.
 
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IntelliHeath

IntelliHeath

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,184
From Famitsu Collection by Sakurai

– Beyonetta was the first pick among realisable characters. Above her, there were old veterans like Snake and other characters that were already tried negotiating but got rejected. (p63)
 

Grapezard

Member
Nov 16, 2017
7,788
From Famitsu Collection by Sakurai

– Beyonetta was the first pick among realisable characters. Above her, there were old veterans like Snake and other characters that were already tried negotiating but got rejected. (p63)
You'd think that having your character in Smash would be a net positive, even if it's more complicated than that.
 
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IntelliHeath

IntelliHeath

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,184
You'd think that having your character in Smash would be a net positive, even if it's more complicated than that.

What if low sales of Smash Wii U causes the budget to be low for downloadable development so the license deals ended up being failure because they couldn't afford it. Therefore they seems to able to afford those nice license deals for Switch for base and dlc.

But again, they would able to afford Cloud and Ryu; unless they actually willing to play ballpark with Nintendo.
 

MondoMega

One Winged Slayer
Member
Jan 10, 2018
47,475

Odeko

One Winged Slayer
The Fallen
Mar 22, 2018
15,180
West Blue
This is a really interesting question though, who could that mystery third party be that turned down a Smash invite?

I'm guessing it wasn't a non-game character as 2015 Sakurai wouldn't have even asked, since he hadn't changed his mind about Goku yet.

It's gotta be Sora, right?
 
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IntelliHeath

IntelliHeath

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,184
I think it's probably Belmont since they were in Ultimate (base roster) for ballot requests so it's plausible.
 

KtotheRoc

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
56,665
Is Hero a possibility? We know Sakurai and Nintendo wanted to add Dragon Quest to Smash for a while.
 
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IntelliHeath

IntelliHeath

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,184
I also find this interesting as well.

– He doesn't follow internets reaction so didn't know all the fan predictions. (p209)

Simon, Sora, and maybe Banjo or Masterchief are the only ones I can think of that make any sense.

Phil was okay with Banjo in Smash 4 as DLC during Smash Ballot so it's not Banjo for sure.
 

Odeko

One Winged Slayer
The Fallen
Mar 22, 2018
15,180
West Blue
I'm also trying to disect the "old veterans like Snake" line.

Snake makes perfect sense, but I'm surprised there were other veterans on the list. Mewtwo, Roy, and Lucas had already been re-added so that could only be Pichu, Young Link, Wolf, and Ice Climbers.

I'm gonna take a wild guess and say it wasn't Pichu or YL and I don't think it would be Wolf, so I'm glad to hear that my Icey Boys had a fan base still sticking out for them.

Reconstructing the list then, it was probably something like:

1. Sora
2. Snake
3. Simon
4. Ice Climbers
5. Bayonetta
 

MondoMega

One Winged Slayer
Member
Jan 10, 2018
47,475
I'm also trying to disect the "old veterans like Snake" line.

Snake makes perfect sense, but I'm surprised there were other veterans on the list. Mewtwo, Roy, and Lucas had already been re-added so that could only be Pichu, Young Link, Wolf, and Ice Climbers.

I'm gonna take a wild guess and say it wasn't Pichu or YL and I don't think it would be Wolf, so I'm glad to hear that my Icey Boys had a fan base still sticking out for them.

Reconstructing the list then, it was probably something like:

1. Sora
2. Snake
3. Simon
4. Ice Climbers
5. Bayonetta
It was probably Wolf (alongside Snake, duh). People knew that the Ice Climbers were out due to technical difficulties, and Young Link and Pichu weren't too popular.
 

Weiss

User requested ban
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
64,265
Sakurai is my best friend and he said he'd include Geno just for me.
 

rayngiraffe

Member
Dec 11, 2018
1,455
If we're looking at 3rd party only, probably Snake (stated by Sakurai; Kojima-konami relations were at a all-time low), Hero (SE plus the whole cluster**** of rights) or Banjo (Microsoft had barely began to open out).

I honestly don't know if Sora really was on Nintendo's radar (feel like they would prefer DQ over KH) but given how chill Disney is with the franchise I have the feeling it's not them who refused.
 

MondoMega

One Winged Slayer
Member
Jan 10, 2018
47,475
If it were Wolf then they probably would have just made him DLC. Ice Climbers make more sense to me since the 3DS couldn't handle them so that explains why they still wouldn't get in.
A lot of people were asking for Wolf in 2015.

It seems like the three veterans they added were the earliest planned DLC fighters; Mewtwo as the big one fans demanded, and then Roy and Lucas as Melee and Brawl veterans respectively (they advertised the latter two that way in the E3 2015 presentation).

People knew that the Ice Climbers were out due to technical difficulties, and a lot of people didn't know that the ballot was for future installments too.
 

ned_ballad

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
48,248
Rochester, New York
Wolf needed a lot of work to bring back. His animations from Brawl were basically useless for repurposing to Smash 4.

I've always felt this was the reason he didn't come back. Lucas and Roy were just easier characters to implement.
 

Odeko

One Winged Slayer
The Fallen
Mar 22, 2018
15,180
West Blue
A lot of people were asking for Wolf in 2015.

It seems like the three veterans they added were the earliest planned DLC fighters; Mewtwo as the big one fans demanded, and then Roy and Lucas as Melee and Brawl veterans respectively (they advertised the latter two that way in the E3 2015 presentation).

People knew that the Ice Climbers were out due to technical difficulties, and a lot of people didn't know that the ballot was for future installments too.
I guess I can see it, but I still keep coming back to "realizable." The Ice Climbers definitely weren't realizable, but I can't see any reason why Wolf wouldn't be.
 

TheDinoman

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,098
I guess I can see it, but I still keep coming back to "realizable." The Ice Climbers definitely weren't realizable, but I can't see any reason why Wolf wouldn't be.

Becuase like what ned_ballad said, Wolf was a rushed, janky mess in Brawl as a result of being a last minute inclusion. He needed more work than the likes of Roy or Lucas.
 

rayngiraffe

Member
Dec 11, 2018
1,455
I don't see much difference between Roy/Lucas and Wolf. They both come from games with a different game engine, and you basically have to remodel/develop everything from scratch. Mewtwo was also a buggy mess in Melee and yet he's in.

It feels more like Nintendo's marketing team felt that Roy/Lucas/Mewtwo would sell better than Wolf/Pichu/the other veterans.
 

r_n

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,534
Becuase like what ned_ballad said, Wolf was a rushed, janky mess in Brawl as a result of being a last minute inclusion. He needed more work than the likes of Roy or Lucas.
ALso, you know

I think they weren't going to bring back a veteran character for the ballot winner. I feel like "realizable" is pulling a lot more work here than just the obvious "hard/impossible to negotiate" and "hard to develop"
 

steviestar3

One Winged Slayer
Member
Jul 3, 2018
4,439
I don't see much difference between Roy/Lucas and Wolf. They both come from games with a different game engine, and you basically have to remodel/develop everything from scratch. Mewtwo was also a buggy mess in Melee and yet he's in.

It feels more like Nintendo's marketing team felt that Roy/Lucas/Mewtwo would sell better than Wolf/Pichu/the other veterans.

What was buggy about Mewtwo? Confusion was kind of janky I guess (you could pull people through ledges with it sometimes) but it's not that major compared to other huge bugs like Ness's yo-yo glitch or Kirby's throws not working. Animation wise Melee Mewtwo was fine too, definitely not anywhere close to resembling the dumpster fire that was Brawl Wolf. Mewtwo's only real problem in Melee was that he was underpowered which is easy enough to fix by buffing his speed/hitboxes/etc.
 

MondoMega

One Winged Slayer
Member
Jan 10, 2018
47,475
I think it's clear that, despite Wolf being from the newer installment, Mewtwo had a more solid foundation to work from. Just look at their movesets: they recreated Mewtwo's Melee moveset faithfully (also making it not suck), while Wolf got straight-up reworked with a bunch of new moves and less janky animations.

Maybe some of the work they did on Mewtwo for Brawl came in handy?
 
Aug 12, 2019
5,159
I treat Smash like other fighting games because at the end of the day, it shares a number of similarities with other fighting games. Sure, it's more casual & party-based. But it has a colorful cast of characters, it has a focus of fighting others, it has a bustling competitive scene. There are differences, true. But there are also similarities. Smash may be a different breed of fighting game, but it's still a fighting game. And more than that, it's the best-selling fighting game ever. We should be asking more of Smash to do better when it comes to representation, not excusing the lack of either. Even if Smash was so far removed from the rest of the fighting game genre that it's something else entirely, that still doesn't excuse the lack of representation. Again, they should be striving to do better, not settling on their flaws.

Likewise, I'm not saying that Smash can & should create new fighters. It should capitalize on the options that exist. "Sakurai's vision", while he very clearly prioritizes protagonists & mascots, is (as I said) a restrictive one. It's him tying his hands together & claiming "Sorry, no diversity, my hands are tied". It's, again, a stubborn way to look at things (him, not you). Even if we don't go for characters like Elma or Nakoruru, there are still characters like Jill & Lara Croft to choose from. Again, options exist, but they aren't using them.

I meant more so in regards to how Smash characters work than it's individual characteristics of gameplay. But the gameplay is a big part of how it differentiates itself too, but the void is the biggest when it comes to the primary subject of your criticism; characters. And that's where I find making the comparisons a lot more complicated and less obvious. I think this sort of "lack of representation" is built into the DNA of Smash by being built into the DNA of "video games." It has a ton of barriers because of how it's structured (a crossover with 20+ series, that also can't invent original characters) to being able to more easily flow into representation and diversity. I think that key difference between it and other fighting games is something that should we should be forgiving of in terms of accepting those flaws. It's much, much harder for Smash to achieve any sort of balance, and while there's a list of great candidates, it's a short list before you get into increasingly niche and specific options that also don't satisfy as many people.

I guess that's where my split with you really comes in. The female characters I support more heavily and think are the best options for expansion in the roster all still play by Sakurai's rules without much issue at all, so I don't see a reason to go against the whole "only protagonists and mascots rule" when it actively fits the one I call upon people to accept and consider. I think most of the other options are generally either A. Significantly less popular with general gaming communities or the communities specific to their titles; B. Less important to their games; C First parties in an era where third parties are more of the focus, and significantly less popular than other first party options at that; or D. All of the above. Like the only real exception that comes to mind is ARMS with Spring Man being less popular on average than his female counterparts... but for other series? I just don't see many options that wouldn't just be kind of blatantly choosing "diversity" over fan demand, importance, etc. Maybe Resident Evil if Jill is not the one chosen (I still think a Hero type character makes the most sense and satisfies the most people, but that's me).

The only place I really could maybe see a bias is in the third parties... but again, I think most of the ones chosen were generally for kind of obvious reasons and it's probably more of a Japanese bias than a male bias... and even then, you again see people much preferring other franchises to the handful of female ones (such as Sonic over Arle or Mega Man over Jill). I don't know, I don't envy Sakurai having to make these calls with so much pressure from so many different fandoms and fans and corporate interests, and I'm not sure if I'd be able to do much different in a similar position. And I really think the focus on 30% is the issue when I do think context really, really matters in regards to how we're determining how "good" or "bad" Smash's representation is compared to other games, particularly when I think Smash has some of the least problematic sexualization and such at this point...

And the new president is sometimes announced before the polls close in California.

Nintendo deciding to work on Bayo because she did very well in the first week and a half of the polls (likely by far the most active time) doesn't mean she didn't win. You've only provided evidence that they started early, not that they lied when they said she won.

/v/'s enormous Bayo push was right when the polls opened (I remember, I was there and voted for her because of it), so she was probably comfortably ahead at that point. If Ridley had crept past her in the ranking over time, then there's no reason to believe they wouldn't have added him too, or at least not lie to everyone and still say Bayo won.

That's not even remotely close to this situation. The Presidential elections have a very clear end point, I.E. when the Electoral College officially favors one candidate over the other (which is fucking stupid, but here we are). An open poll like the Smash Ballot doesn't remotely have the same thing and we know for a fact that there were only 1.8 million votes, less than half the number that played Smash for Wii U, and not even a quarter of the Smash for 3DS population (and that's assuming you only make some sort of call based upon the existing Smash population at the time out of arbitrary recognition, whereas Brawl's 13 million is even further from that...). I'm sorry, this doesn't make a damn bit of sense that you would choose that early into the ballot, and even if you did, you were ensuring that one recognizable trend in the early data was only identified versus months of information you could piece together a more comprehensive standard for. Choosing a result from such a little section of your data either indicates incredibly poor judgment from a data analysis standpoint, or a vested interest in making a certain outcome happen. Bayonetta's data was in the game by April 15th, which means, she had been worked on prior to the 15th and the Update releasing. Choosing after two weeks is not a reasonable decision to make from a greater five month poll. To take your analogy it'd be like announcing the President at 8:00 AM the morning of Election Day as opposed to announcing before California was completely closed in the polls (which keep in mind, California's polls are also some of the latest in the country to close as well). There can be different pushes at different times of a ballot and there can be late stage pushes.

Her having a push at the beginning doesn't mean much in the context of such an open poll, and I certainly don't expect to give /v/ the credit to actually be a sizable enough portion of the population to somehow make her happen (/v/ is one of the smallest and least action oriented places of Smash fandom). They made a call to end Smash 4 development before the DLC was released, so there was no room to add any more characters (and ironically the only slot they added was Corrin in July I believe). By the time the ballot ended, Smash 4's life was at an end and Ultimate was being conceived of. Keep in mind, Ultimate was Sakurai's last promise to Iwata, who died in July 2015, so we know the earliest dates of conception were from around that period. There was no chance the ballot winner was ever going to be added when you keep that in mind.

The best case scenario for Nintendo is that they got extremely lucky with the voting, all the options above Bayonetta were "not realizable" such as Snake or whoever else (Confirmed by Sakurai), Bayonetta legitimately had this massive early push, and then Nintendo made that call within two weeks of the ballot opening because it was... somehow clear... on an open poll for 5 months... that there would not be a more popular character or things would change...

No, I think it's pretty clear Bayonetta was someone Nintendo/Sakurai wanted in. I know fans did too, but the developer intentions were never completely pure or honest from the moment she was added before April 15th, 2015. And again, there had to be significant leg work done before that to ensure she was licensed and conceived of to be based off of Zero Suit Samus.

Any poll announcing a winner at less than 3% of the overall run time of such an open idea would be thrown out by everyone in the statistics community.
 

r_n

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,534
I think it's clear that, despite Wolf being from the newer installment, Mewtwo had a more solid foundation to work from. Just look at their movesets: they recreated Mewtwo's Melee moveset faithfully (also making it not suck), while Wolf got straight-up reworked with a bunch of new moves and less janky animations.

Maybe some of the work they did on Mewtwo for Brawl came in handy?
Also Mewtwo is probably more popular than Wolf in general and is its own entirely distinct character in terms of gameplay (insert your lucario jokes here). Wolf is a fairly unique character, but he still has a lot of Fox DNA. So it makes sense to me that for a bonus character for buying 2 full priced games to test the waters on DLC, you go for someone like Mewtwo instead of Wolf (or squirtle, ivysaur).

e: If Mewtwo hadn't been the bonus character (pretend it's Plant or something), I bet we still would have gotten Roy as the melee selection to go alongside Ryu, incidentally.
 

rayngiraffe

Member
Dec 11, 2018
1,455
What was buggy about Mewtwo? Confusion was kind of janky I guess (you could pull people through ledges with it sometimes) but it's not that major compared to other huge bugs like Ness's yo-yo glitch or Kirby's throws not working. Animation wise Melee Mewtwo was fine too, definitely not anywhere close to resembling the dumpster fire that was Brawl Wolf. Mewtwo's only real problem in Melee was that he was underpowered which is easy enough to fix by buffing his speed/hitboxes/etc.
I don't have the youtube link but there was one (I think it was melee is broken one) where it detailed a ton of bugs/hitboxes which didn't match the visuals for Mewtwo. Remaking him vs Wolf doesn't sound like it was that big of a difference especially if both required work from scratch and had a fixed moveset to visualize.
 
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