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GreenMamba

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,305
Despite people insisting that Dixie would be an 'obvious echo' Smash Ultimate introduced a Metroid character who hadn't appeared in over a decade with no future in her respective series as an echo and not her despite also being a common character request... and Dixie isn't even represented by Diddy in her Spirit battle.

If she could have been an echo she would have, yet we still endure this nonsense.
 

ContractHolder

Jack of All Streams
Member
Oct 25, 2017
16,234
Just to clarify my choices:

I was going for existing franchises because of a theoretical "no stage" Fighter Pass. Or franchises close to existing (Kos-Mos with Xenoblade and Rabbid Peach because Mario Crossover and you get an Ubisoft rep.)

I was also trying to go for fan requested characters. So I put in Dixie and Geno. Geno being the only "male" and Dixie being the only 1st party was a happy accident.

Chun-Li I put in because I couldn't think of another on Geno/Dixie levels of major requests for existing franchises. And Kos-Mos would be another Bandai Rep and Ubisoft could join in without needing a stage. Plus Chun-Li I figured would avoid another sword character and bring in a popular woman fighter. But you could replace her with another popular character from an existing franchise.
 

Weiss

User requested ban
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Oct 25, 2017
64,265

MondoMega

One Winged Slayer
Member
Jan 10, 2018
47,474
IIRC the Belmonts were included due to Castlevania being a popular ballot request rather than necessarily one character from the franchise.
That's correct; though really, even without the ballot i'm sure Sakurai would have came to the same conclusion with his top picks for the Castlevania rep (Belmonts are playable; Alucard is an Assist Trophy).
 

MondoMega

One Winged Slayer
Member
Jan 10, 2018
47,474
Honestly the only newcomer on the base roster whose inclusion wasn't influenced by the ballot is Incineroar.
Inkling would've definitely been included with or without the Ballot (in-fact, Sakurai has never mentioned the Ballot as a reason for their inclusion). Isabelle also seems like a character that just generally has enough popularity to get in without some fan poll.

Ken was probably also not from the Ballot; just Sakurai's pick.
 

Clefargle

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,123
Limburg
As far as Microsoft reps go:

Banjo:

Exciting because he hasn't really been deconfirmed yet and has a legacy presence on old ninty hardware

Master chief:

interesting because he's essentially MS mascot but essentially deconfirmed via tweet (unless there is another fighters pass)

Steve

Has potential because he's from a flagship MS property with worldwide name recognition. But he's also been de facto deconfirmed for this round of dlc via twitter
 

Earthstrike

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,232
Got into elite smash then fell out. Nice to know I'm getting better. Looks like hitting elite smash requires 4.5 million + atm.
 

Weiss

User requested ban
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64,265
At this point I figure the Microsoft rep is either Banjo, or there's not one at all. I'm taking those tweets by Frank O' Connor and Aubrey Norris as hard deconfirms.
 

MondoMega

One Winged Slayer
Member
Jan 10, 2018
47,474
At this point I figure the Microsoft rep is either Banjo, or there's not one at all. I'm taking those tweets by Frank O' Connor and Aubrey Norris as hard deconfirms.
While those tweets are really bad looks for the chances of those fighters, i'm not going to write off their chances entirely (so I don't get too convinced that Banjo is happening).
 

Neoxon

Spotlighting Black Excellence - Diversity Analyst
Member
Oct 25, 2017
85,330
Houston, TX
For those who care, Minako Arisato is now the official name for Persona 3's FeMC (who should have been the alternate variant for Makoto Yuki's Mii Costume). Though funny enough, they list Ren & Joker separately in the Sega Heroes poll.
 

Weiss

User requested ban
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Oct 25, 2017
64,265
While those tweets are really bad looks for the chances of those fighters, i'm not going to write off their chances entirely (so I don't get too convinced that Banjo is happening).

Psh, when has being overly eager about Banjo's inclusion in Smash Bros. ever backfired on me?
 

Gold Arsene

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
30,757
I feel like people put way to much stock in those Yakuza or Master Chief "deconfirmations."

I'm not saying I think they'll be in for sure but I'm not taking those tweets and statements as the gospel.
 

MondoMega

One Winged Slayer
Member
Jan 10, 2018
47,474
people put too much stock in interns
Are you talking about the people who "deconfirmed" Steve and Master Chief on Twitter?

Because I think the Franchise Development Director for Halo would know what he is talking about. You could make an argument against Aubrey Norris (Senior Manager / Head of Community & Player Voice for Minecraft) but I feel like she would know about it as well.
 

TheDinoman

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,095
I feel like people put way to much stock in those Yakuza or Master Chief "deconfirmations."

I'm not saying I think they'll be in for sure but I'm not taking those tweets and statements as the gospel.

I mean, in Yakuza's case, if Kiryu really was getting in, shouldn't Nagoshi be completely quiet about it? NDAs, you know.

That interview with him made it seem like Sakurai didn't approach him about it, so yeah, he's as good as dead.
 

MondoMega

One Winged Slayer
Member
Jan 10, 2018
47,474
I feel like people put way to much stock in those Yakuza or Master Chief "deconfirmations."

I'm not saying I think they'll be in for sure but I'm not taking those tweets and statements as the gospel.
Nah, the Yakuza one is pretty rock solid. Sounds like Nagoshi hasn't talked to Sakurai about it at all, which is as "deconfirmed" as you can get.
 

Okabe

Is Sometimes A Good Bean
Member
Aug 24, 2018
19,922
I feel like people put way to much stock in those Yakuza or Master Chief "deconfirmations."

I'm not saying I think they'll be in for sure but I'm not taking those tweets and statements as the gospel.

I agree. Hence why I still Stand Dante to this day. Though in my case it was just Itsuno saying DMC needs to be on switch first .
 

Metto

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
12,109
The only statement that should be reconsidered for deconfirmation is Isuno's and that's because he didn't really talk about Dante's chances itself.

Whereas all the other ones are from other devs and producers that seem a lot more concrete about their characters not being in and if not that wouldn't and shouldn't be talking about them assuming their characters are in
 

Deleted member 2669

user requested account closure
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BGBW

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Oct 25, 2017
15,279
Unlike those Master Chief and Yakuza statements, I've been using the name "Haruka4Smash" in Bamco's various mobile titles and they've not once told me to change it. They're clearly not denying her chances.
 

TheDinoman

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,095
Honestly at this point and time, I'm expecting the remaining Fighter Pass characters to be four from this batch

mrypcmX.png


I'd be very pleasantly surprised if we got a character not on here.
 

MondoMega

One Winged Slayer
Member
Jan 10, 2018
47,474
I mean hey, Phil hasn't responded to any Twitter posts about Banjo in Smash since March last year.

The wait for Challenger Pack Threeie is really going to be painful.
 
So about the "Jane" mystery, people on SmashBoards have found some interesting things in the past day or two. Now whether that means we will actually see "Jane" in game is not known as of this point. Assuming "Jane" is not an Echo fighter, does this possibly mean that DLC costumes are being considered or was considered? I apologize if I am beating a dead bush here. And I also apologize for the giant wall of text.
Gentlepanda said:
interesting developments on the jane front, courtesy of the folks in the joker thread:
vaanrose said:
Just popping in a day late to specify that a .mchp file is a cached vertex animation. You take a model, run non-realtime physics simulation on it, and then store the changes each vertex makes throughout the length of the animation into a cache file. This allows you to run an animation that alters each vertex position on each frame to look exactly like it was driven by physics, without it actually being driven by physics. It's stored data that, when played in realtime, appears to be dynamically calculated, and is one of many tricks video games use to render as fast as they need to. It is not simply a placeholder template for any kind of hair, like he offers as a potential explanation; it's specifically linked to the exact mesh and even a single vertex out of place renders it unusable.

I haven't spent any time studying Ultimate or its physics engine to state this definitively, but the mere presence of a cached vertex animation suggests that the in-game hair isn't physics driven at all. It only appears that way because every animation a character has has a corresponding hair animation that was calculated in Maya.

What can we conclude based on this? "Jane" was far enough along in the development pipeline to have cached vertex animation. This means that she'd already have a model, said model would already be rigged, said rig would already be animated, and only then, the animation was used to calculate the way the vertexes will animate. Whoever "Jane" is, she was/is near the very end of the development pipeline, and I very much doubt she's scrapped content for that reason.

Here is what she is not:

1.) Any of the background characters. Joker is still referred to as "Jack" in the code, post-release, while all his party members (most notably, of course, being Ann) are referred to with their respective P5 codenames. Ann is "panther," not Jane.

2.) Morgana. It's been suggested the ponytail is Morgana's tail, but Morgana's tail is not a vertex animation. It's a skeletal bone animation that may have secondary physics attached to it under certain animations, but this is a wholly separate spring joint physics system, rather than cached Maya hair. This sort of system is considerably less expensive to render in realtime and is used all over the place.

This poster is correct that, usually, the female and male alts alternate. This isn't only different gender alts, however, but all separate model alts. The two versions of Link, Ike, Wario, Cloud and Bayonetta also alternate, despite not being divided by gender. Therefore, the alts do not alternate because they are separated by gender, they alternate simply because they're alts. There's a notable exception to this, however. Olimar and Alph are separated with four Olimars, and then four Alphs.

I believe this sets a precedent for characters that are explicitly different characters to not alternate, but instead separate them into two groupings. They may be the same character functionally, but they are not the same character thematically. What little we know about this new Persona girl suggests that, even if she fulfills the same in-universe role as Joker, she is still a different character, being at the very least in a different year. It's likely that, as with P3's female protagonist before her, she'll also have a different name and different personality. Even if she is "Joker," she very much will not be just the distaff counterpart to the male version. We'll know whether this is truly the case or not next week.

There is also the fact that, when a character only has one or two alts, they are always the last costume slots. Mario, Little Mac, and Ridley are all this way, and now Joker is, too, with his c06 and c07 alts being his school outfit. I believe it is completely in line with current conventions if Joker's last two slots were originally intended to be female Joker, perhaps only getting two instead of four because she's not an established character and it's unknown yet if she'd be as warmly received as male Joker has been. And taken at face value, the "Jack6" and "Jane1" strings are connected. If Joker originally had four Jane alts, then "Jack6" would be "Jane3," but if he only had two, then "Jane1" would, indeed, be correct.

With this established, I think the notion that "Jack6_C06_v01_070925.mb" and "Jane1_pony_hairSystemShape2.mchp" are wholly separate strings only coincidentally next to each other in the junk data is unlikely. Possible? Yes. But I'd bet against it. Instead I'll offer a much simpler explanation:

These two separate files are next to each other in the junk data because they were stored in the same folder. Because that's exactly the correct workflow for this kind of thing. Your character file is stored next to its necessary secondary files, like animations and caches. These secondary files are then referenced into the main mb file when needed. This makes it easy to replace them, and the next time you load the mb asset, the new file is automatically loaded in.

vaanrose said:
Teeb147 said:
Thanks for writing that up. I just want to add something about the file string. They're not even 'really' seperate files because maya does deal with multiple extensions. Specifically, hair cache files save as those long strings with '.mb' before the mchp's name. I posted this image in the past, but you can see the file names look exactly like what was found (I marked it in red):
screenshot-2019-02-23-09-47-51-2-jpg.210833
I tested this myself and can confirm "[x].mb_hairSystemShape.mchp" is the way Maya automatically handles hair system cache filenames. Joker and Jane are 100% connected and she is not Jill, Lara or any other random girl with a ponytail.

Sources:
https://smashboards.com/threads/ult...vision-edition.467706/page-4539#post-23245741
https://smashboards.com/threads/ult...vision-edition.467706/page-4584#post-23248574
https://smashboards.com/threads/ult...vision-edition.467706/page-4615#post-23250454

TLDR: "Jane" is connected to Joker, she is neither a separate character nor any of the Phantom Thieves (Morgana included). DLC costumes incoming perhaps, assuming Echo fighters on the pass aren't a thing?
 

Gold Arsene

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
30,757
Honestly at this point and time, I'm expecting the remaining Fighter Pass characters to be four from this batch

mrypcmX.png


I'd be very pleasantly surprised if we got a character not on here.
Mind if i ask why you don't think Travis would happen?

Also why do people say Leon has a chance when Chris is the "main" RE guy as far as Smash rules are concerned?
 
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