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Yurinka

Banned
Oct 30, 2017
1,457
PS4 install base is at 70-80 million right? Both Uncharted and Horizon have also been on sale at some point. With Horizon even hitting $20 during some Black Friday sales.

Nintendo is notorious for having games that never drop in price.
Splatoon 2 attach rate - 34%
Zelda attach rate - 48%
Mario attach rate - 59%

Uncharted and Horizon cant compete with those attach rates. If we assume Horizon and Uncharted both did 10 mil and the PS4 userbase is 70 mil that's about 14%. Those are closer to 1-2 Switch numbers.
It isn't fair to compare attach rate of Nintendo and Sony exclusives.

In Sony case there is a huge wider and more varied library of games and way stronger 3rd party and indie support, so Sony games have to compete against GTA, Assassin's Creed, CoD, Battlefield and so on, while Nintendo only competes against a way smaller and weaker amount of games. In Sony, Xbox 3rd party multiplatform games are as important or more than 1st party games.

3rd party vs 1st party market share is way different in Nintendo case because many people like me have Nintendo platforms basically just to play Nintendo games, while primarly in the other platforms like PS4 because most AAA games from top publishers are there.
 

Chronos

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,204
Switch is off to such a great start, its amazing what a strong platform and an array of compelling software can do. Such a huge contrast to the anemic effort of the Wii U.
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
I'm still waiting for an answer lol.

I'm not the poster who was initially talking about this and I'm not agreeing with his claim, but I think the answer is fairly clear- The Wii audience was heavily skewed towards "non-traditional" gamer demographic. Far more so than we're seeing on the Switch now.

The only traditional first party games that really took off due to this demographic were Mario Kart and NSMB Wii.
 

Saint-14

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
14,477
I'm not the poster who was initially talking about this and I'm not agreeing with his claim, but I think the answer is fairly clear- The Wii audience was heavily skewed towards "non-traditional" gamer demographic. Far more so than we're seeing on the Switch now.

The only traditional first party games that really took off due to this demographic were Mario Kart and NSMB Wii.
And that's exactly the answer I was expecting, you think a Zelda game released when switch will be at +80 million would have a 50% attach rate too? I guess we can use the excuse that people buy PS4 just to play GTA, Fortnite, CoD and FIFA.
 

cakely

Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,149
Chicago
Well done, Nintendo. Keep those first party games rolling in and you'll easily take second place for the generation within a couple of years.

It's amazing how quickly they were able to turn their business around after the Wii U.
 

casiopao

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
5,044
Launch aligned, ARMS is above. But the very fact that ARMS can be compared with the most famous fighting game franchise of all time should be a positive thing. The game got nice legs too without being discounted and on a tiny installed base.

ARMS is going to stay for a long time there. Even if the legs is not as hot as other gigantic evergreen title, it will reach 2 million faster than SFV did for sure.

1 2 Switch doing better than Arms is kinda disgusting even though im not a huge fan of Arms.

Why? It is a simple party game that casual would love to play during some time together. When there is no one providing that casual game experience, it is not surprising to see 1-2 Switch to be racking all the success there.
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
And that's exactly the answer I was expecting, you think a Zelda game released when switch will be at +80 million would have a 50% attach rate too? I guess we can use the excuse that people buy PS4 just to play GTA, Fortnite, CoD and FIFA.

No, I don't. Like I said I didn't agree with that argument. There's a ceiling to sales for most properties- tie ratio doesn't really mean much after a certain level. I'm simply responding to that question about why sales for Galaxy and Smash on the Wii were relatively low.
 

Renna Hazel

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,577
ARMS is going to stay for a long time there. Even if the legs is not as hot as other gigantic evergreen title, it will reach 2 million faster than SFV did for sure.
Arms should be there after this quarter I think. I feel a price drop to 30-40 would really help the game out though. More people should be playing this game.
 

daniel77733

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
4,639
How come both Super Mario Galaxy games sold only 12 million on 100 million install base? Smash Bros 13 million on 100 million install base?

SMG were great games but the Wii sucked and was a motion control fad/gimmick that people eventually saw through. Switch is by far Nintendo's best console since Gamecube and will probably surpass that as well as Nintendo 64 by year's end. As someone who hasn't given a shit about Nintendo since Gamecube, even I bought a Switch and im all in with it. As long as they keep the motion control garbage to a minimum in their games, I personally should be okay.

In general, very happy and pleased that Switch is having the success that it's having. Should easily surpass Xbox One by March 31st, 2020 in total console sales as long as they keep the games coming. PS4 Pro is my primary but having Switch as my secondary console is awesome as it's bringing back all the great memories of 1995/1996 with the original PlayStation and Nintendo 64.
 

z0m3le

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,418
I'm still waiting for an answer lol.
Nintendo Wii's top selling software:
Wii Sports 83M
Wii Fit(+) 44M
MKWii 37M
Wii Sports Resort 33M
Super Mario Bros Wii 30M
Wii Play 28M
Smash Brawl 13M
Mario Galaxy 12M

The Wii had plenty of sales high ratio games. In fact, I hear all the time that no one bought games for the system, but it has a 9:1 tie ratio, which is the second highest of any Nintendo platform, only beaten by the insane gamecube attach rate.
 

Celine

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,030
Wii tie ratio is 9.05 and is indeed the second highest tie ratio of any Nintendo console.

The idea that a game attach rate is strictly proportional to a console install base is silly.
 

Medalion

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
12,203
Disappointing... Y U NO SELL 20+ MILLION BY NAO???: FIRE KIMISHIMA!!! lol jk

This is amazing stuff, congrats Ninty!
 

fiendcode

Member
Oct 26, 2017
24,925
It isn't fair to compare attach rate of Nintendo and Sony exclusives.

In Sony case there is a huge wider and more varied library of games and way stronger 3rd party and indie support, so Sony games have to compete against GTA, Assassin's Creed, CoD, Battlefield and so on, while Nintendo only competes against a way smaller and weaker amount of games. In Sony, Xbox 3rd party multiplatform games are as important or more than 1st party games.

3rd party vs 1st party market share is way different in Nintendo case because many people like me have Nintendo platforms basically just to play Nintendo games, while primarly in the other platforms like PS4 because most AAA games from top publishers are there.
The bolded isn't really true, Switch is far outpacing PS4 in indie support (and sales). Launch aligned Switch has over double the number of indie games PS4 did.

Also launch aligned Switch has more total games than PS4 did so the varied argument is also debatable.
 

Saint-14

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
14,477
Wii tie ratio is 9.05 and is indeed the second highest tie ratio of any Nintendo console.

The idea that a game attach rate is strictly proportional to a console install base is silly.
Again, you think a Zelda game would sell +40 million on an 80 million instal base? The guy was clearly talking out of his ass, instal base doesn't guarantee your games to sell gangbusters.
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
Man I don't understand the ebb and flow of stocks. These seem like amazing numbers but everyone selling haha

Analyst expectations were 16M units sold for the FY, resulting in 18.7M LTD. It's come in close to 1M under that, so they're naturally a bit disappointed.

I actually sold half my shares yesterday after doing the math, there was no way those analyst expectations would be met.
 
Apr 9, 2018
368
Certainly good numbers for Uncharted 4 and Horizon - but - these were on a much higher install base and how many were at full price? Maybe half? These Nintendo evergreens will still outsell them easily and do it without any price drop

Sales don't scale up like that with installbase after a certain point.

If that were the case, late big PS2 titles should have hit 20-30 million each time.
 
Oct 26, 2017
9,827
Damn, the Switch is near neck and neck with the PS4, launch aligned within ~1 year. Even in my most optimistic predictions, I didn't expect that so I'm happy to see that it's doing so well. I hope we see support continue to improve and for Nintendo to continue to release a steady stream of games
 

Dierce

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,993
I guess this means a sequel to Xenoblade Chronicles 2 is very likely. That would be awesome.
 
Oct 26, 2017
9,827
Sales don't scale up like that with installbase after a certain point.

If that were the case, late big PS2 titles should have hit 20-30 million each time.
Bingo. Every franchise has a sales cap and not everyone buying into a system is looking for the same kind of games. Many of Sony's games on the PS4 have done very well, no need to downplay that. They're just not going to continue to sell millions after a certain point. The same will hold true for the Switch as well. It's not as if BOTW or Super Mario Odyssey, for example, will go on to sell 30 to 40 million units, for example
 

maximumzero

Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,925
New Orleans, LA
If I could time travel my first stop would be November 18, 2012, where I would slap myself square across the face and tell myself to not buy a Wii U.

What a fucking waste of time and money that was. Ugh.
 

Rndom Grenadez

Prophet of Truth
Member
Dec 7, 2017
5,640
How come both Super Mario Galaxy games sold only 12 million on 100 million install base? Smash Bros 13 million on 100 million install base?

Because a blue ocean strategy meant that a large amount of the people who bought a Wii were not gamers that played anything other than wii sports and wii fit.

Mario Kart and NSMB both sold more than 30 million though.
 

z0m3le

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,418
Because a blue ocean strategy meant that a large amount of the people who bought a Wii were not gamers that played anything other than wii sports and wii fit.

Mario Kart and NSMB both sold more than 30 million though.

MKWii sold almost as many units as Wii Fit, and it's not like Wii Sports or Wii Sports Resort were bad games.
 

Pokémon

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,681
Will a chunk of these sales be undone next year to make him right or what exactly is he holding out for?

No but the Switch sales might collapse any second and then he can say that it is a failure just so he doesn't have to eat crows. No idea why some people are rather moving goalposts than simply admitting being wrong. Even Colin Moriarty did that lol.
 

Rndom Grenadez

Prophet of Truth
Member
Dec 7, 2017
5,640
It isn't fair to compare attach rate of Nintendo and Sony exclusives.

In Sony case there is a huge wider and more varied library of games and way stronger 3rd party and indie support, so Sony games have to compete against GTA, Assassin's Creed, CoD, Battlefield and so on, while Nintendo only competes against a way smaller and weaker amount of games. In Sony, Xbox 3rd party multiplatform games are as important or more than 1st party games.

3rd party vs 1st party market share is way different in Nintendo case because many people like me have Nintendo platforms basically just to play Nintendo games, while primarly in the other platforms like PS4 because most AAA games from top publishers are there.

Both Uncharted and Horizon released during points in time where nothing else was coming out. GTA, Assassin's Creed, CoD, Battlefield all come out during the holiday season. What did Uncharted (May) and Horizon (Feb) really compete with?

Mario and Zelda also had to compete with all those games. People generally have a certain amount that they can spend, not allocations for certain companies. If you had $60 to spend last October 27th and you owned both a PS4 and a Switch then that money spent on AC is money not spent on Mario.