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sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,740
Italy
Kids and casuals haven't adopted the hardware??? Yes they have.

There are not 17 million Nintendo fanboys. So who else do you think we're buying switches?

The mainstream has yet to adopt Switch. The platform is selling mainly to young adults---it doesn't mean kids don't have a Switch but it means that the demo is still skewed towards older people (and mostly male). Pokémon and Animal Crossing will change that.
 

v_iHuGi

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
5,155
Damn we can't have a thread about Nintendo doing amazing without bringing Ps4 to the mix.

Haha
 

z0m3le

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,418
Yup. Maybe in 3-4 years after the yearly sales normalize it'll be easier to compare, but not this soon. Until then Switch will always have an advantage between November and February and PS4 will always have an advantage between March and October.
If Nintendo Switch hits it's new target of 20 Million units this year, it will beat PS4's sales launch aligned by 100k +whatever they actually sell above 20 Million. So comparisons might become unbalanced enough where one is clearly always the winner, same could happen in the other direction if Switch sales fall off.

Personally, I don't think Switch will have a problem selling 20 Million units this year, but it does depends on their Online component and their E3 announcements this year, still Smash and Pokemon before the end of the FY, can likely achieve this number regardless.
 

Limabean01

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,664
WA, australia
You know what would likely have a bigger impact for the switch than releasing pokemon?

Fortnite.

If they release Fortnite in the switch you'll see a HUGE sales spike.
Absolutely. I would not be surprised if they are anticipating 20m due to fortnite + smash rather than Pokemon + smash.

If we have fortnite, smash AND a Pokemon this year... needless to say it's over for you bitches
 

RockyMin

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,450
So instead of dragging around a PS4 I now have to carry around a PC? And if you are talking about a phone you can only get the app legit for Sony phones. Lets not even mention that there is input lag when playing with remote play.

People carry around PCs all the time. They are called laptops or portables.
 

gueras

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
746
What's the XB1 install base? Can't remember what the last report on that is.
End of 2016 was ~26mi since we have EA reports. Last year Us npd 4.6 Million. Since us represents around 60% 8 Million is a good number for last year. This year sold 850k units in npd first quarter so problably around 35.5 Million right now.
 

Hero

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,794
Incredible. When Pokemon/Animal Crossing/Smash Bros hit this year, sales will explode.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
End of 2016 was ~26mi since we have EA reports. Last year Us npd 4.6 Million. Since us represents around 60% 8 Million is a good number for last year. This year sold 850k units in npd first quarter so problably around 35.5 Million right now.
Alright, that makes sense. Should be around that ballpark, then. So, yeah, Switch could potentially overtake the XB1 by the end of 2019 (XB1 will obviously continue to sell units as well, but Switch should pass it by then, or maybe a quarter or two later).
 

Hey Please

Avenger
Oct 31, 2017
22,824
Not America
Is this the fastest selling Nintendo console to date?

I'd love to buy a switch sometime in the future once the prices come down (can't really justify spending CAD $460 just to play the awesome Legend of Zelda titles). That said, kudos to Nintendo for carving out a large chunk of the market as fast as it has.
 
Oct 26, 2017
6,315
Nashville
If all of those release this year, then Switch would come close to 30M. If Animal Crossing misses 2018, then they'd still be comfortably around 25M. They could have an incredible year if they have such a release slate.
Well we know two of those are happening and likely Pokémon is coming as well. Fortnite will happen since it's been teased. Animal Crossing may not.
Gonna be an insane Q3 and Q4 I reckon for Nintendo.
 

Jenea

Banned
Mar 14, 2018
1,568
NS competes with PS/Xbox the same way as wiiu did. Yes, they are all gaming consoles designed for gamers, but the library is very, very different. Smby who wants to buy a NS won't buy a PS instead or viceversa because the gaming library is different.
I will say even more, if NS would be a home console only, it would be Wiiu 2.0. Nintendo handhelds always had very good sales and the fact that NS is a portable console that can be played on a TV in a easy way helps it a lot (plus handheld ip like Pokemon, Animal Cossing will be great systemsellers).
Anyways, the sales are very good and it's nice to see that N franchises have such good sales.

Can't we just accept that a direct comparison is never fair?
More than this, NS launched on the same day WW, while Ps4 had different release dates for NA, EU and Jap, which makes these kind of comparisons even harder.
 

jroc74

Member
Oct 27, 2017
28,997
Alright, that makes sense. Should be around that ballpark, then. So, yeah, Switch could potentially overtake the XB1 by the end of 2019 (XB1 will obviously continue to sell units as well, but Switch should pass it by then, or maybe a quarter or two later).
XBO is the first thing I thought about when I saw this thread title.

Good god, Nintendo.

They constantly prove you don't need the best specs. Just compelling hardware and software.

Even with the great specs the One X has, it's the games that is keeping Sony out in front. And price. I need a few more T.V.s then I'll get a Switch. I have to play it docked first.
 

CaviarMeths

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
10,655
Western Canada
People carry around PCs all the time. They are called laptops or portables.
Popular portable hardware trends are always finding more elegant solutions to existing tech. That's why iPad and other tablets were so successful. People already had phones and laptops, but the iPad offered a more practical, elegant solution. Remote Play and Play Anywhere are incredibly inelegant, archaic solutions to playing games on the go. There has to be a better way!
 

fbnaulin

Member
Mar 15, 2018
282
Amazing numbers, I'm glad for Nintendo!
And still they have some dense fireworks to be launch. Pokémon, Smash, Mario 2D, Animal Crossing.
The evergreen GTAV, and other 3P on portable would be fantastic, as well.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
Well we know two of those are happening and likely Pokémon is coming as well. Fortnite will happen since it's been teased. Animal Crossing may not.
Gonna be an insane Q3 and Q4 I reckon for Nintendo.
And you even forgot to add Yokai Watch for Japan. That's a big deal over there and should more a lot of systems. Yeah, 2018 could be bananas in terms of hardware sales for the Switch.

Unless they can only produce ~20M.
Eh, I think we're completely past that. They will have visibility to their lineup, and will prepare plenty of units, and probably will prepare for the eventuality of having to increase shipments for the year (the 20M is a forecast, which they typically want to pass rather than miss, so they should be prepared to ship more than that amount).
 

fourfourfun

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,684
England
People carry around PCs all the time. They are called laptops or portables.

While this is true, I wouldn't exactly call them a portable gaming platform. I ended up stood up on the train home yesterday, I was happily able to play BOTW. On the PC side of things, I mean, even if I had a Surface Pro and an XB1 pad, it still wouldn't be feasible. It's like arguing that a laptop is an alternative to a mobile phone because it has Skype on it.
 

z0m3le

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,418
Unless they can only produce ~20M.

Eh, I think we're completely past that. They will have visibility to their lineup, and will prepare plenty of units, and probably will prepare for the eventuality of having to increase shipments for the year (the 20M is a forecast, which they typically want to pass rather than miss, so they should be prepared to ship more than that amount).
http://www.ign.com/articles/2017/11...tch-production-to-25-30-million-units-in-2018
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
Eh, I think we're completely past that. They will have visibility to their lineup, and will prepare plenty of units, and probably will prepare for the eventuality of having to increase shipments for the year (the 20M is a forecast, which they typically want to pass rather than miss, so they should be prepared to ship more than that amount).

Very true, it was just a thought. Right now their sell through is extremely close to their shipment number, going by Japan sales being 25% of global sales, so I wouldn't be surprised if it's still selling what the ship and little more. I'm sure they'll have plenty available for Q3 though.


Ah I forgot about that report. Still, production =/= shipments. There's a time lag between an item being produced and being ready for shipment.

Don't be so quick to brag. The install base is at what Pokemon approximately sells every gen. It's entirely possible that Pokemon won't move much hardware at all.

Going by the demographics Nintendo continually shares with us this is pretty unlikely to be true. The vast majority of Switch owners are young adults in their 20s, while Pokemon's core base is still younger kids.
 

ethomaz

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,851
Santa Albertina
The PS4 has 3 extra weeks vs the Switch launch aligned, which is good for about 1 Million. That is not far off, so I don't think you can draw conclusions between sales of the devices. Nintendo Switch might sell more units during it's second and third years than PS4 did. Nintendo is already targeting 20 Million this year, PS4 sold 17.8 Million during it's same time period. If Nintendo meets it's numbers they will be about 100k units ahead of PS4, so I don't think we have enough data to assume Switch will sell less than PS4.
Only for US (and Canada?)...

19.9m shipped / 18.5m sold for PS4:

US: 13.5 months
EU and rest of America: 13 months
JP and Asia: 10.3 months
 

bionic77

Member
Oct 25, 2017
30,894
Wow @ Mario Odyssey outselling Mario Kart.

I feel like MarioKart has been outselling mainline Mario games for awhile now (unless I am wrong).

Odyssey was such an amazing title. I wonder how it will sell this year.
 

ethomaz

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,851
Santa Albertina
Wow @ Mario Odyssey outselling Mario Kart.

I feel like MarioKart has been outselling mainline Mario games for awhile now (unless I am wrong).

Odyssey was such an amazing title. I wonder how it will sell this year.
Well you are comparing a new title vs a remaster/port.

Mario Kart port/remaster won't sell like a new Mario Kart... nobody expect that.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
Wow @ Mario Odyssey outselling Mario Kart.

I feel like MarioKart has been outselling mainline Mario games for awhile now (unless I am wrong).

Odyssey was such an amazing title. I wonder how it will sell this year.
You're not wrong, but you should realise I think that this is port of the WiiU game, so it's not a new game whereas SMO is. Besides that, it's very well possible that MK8D outsells SMO in the long run.
 

bionic77

Member
Oct 25, 2017
30,894
Well you are comparing a new title vs a remaster/port.

Mario Kart port/remaster won't sell like a new Mario Kart... nobody expect that.
Thats true. I forgot about the WiiU.

Though on the other hand it was new to me and I would guess the majority of people who never played it on the WiiU.
 

phantomx

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,801
No that's not the answer. It's just way easier to develop a game for the Xbox if you're already making the game for the PS4

The difficulty of putting Xbox360 dev'd multiplats onto the ps3 did not stop publishers/developers from putting every major multiplat on it. Cause the audience for their games was definitely there.

Even if the Switch was launched in 2013 alongside the XboxOne/ps4...it would have missed out on most of the AAA multiplats in 2013-2015 that still appeared on the ps360

It's about Nintendo being a poor platform for certain new games whose market sales are driven by gamers who already own a pc/Xbox/ps specifically to play the best big screen tv version they can afford.

For the Switch, the ONLY reason to buy a AAA multiplat on it is if you prefer playing it portable on a 720p 6inch screen...otherwise, any gamer who cares about those games will buy it for their pc/Xbox/ps.

Publishers of big titles know this, so putting their effort on yet another port of their new big game that promise the worst sales is their lowest priority
 

z0m3le

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,418
Ah I forgot about that report. Still, production =/= shipments. There's a time lag between an item being produced and being ready for shipment.

http://time.com/4705071/nintendo-switch-production/

This production was increased to 16 Million for the 2017 FY that just ended. They sold 15.05M so that should give us an idea what 25-30 Million Switch unit produced for the 2018 FY means.

I'd suggest 23 to 28 Million units shipped this year is possible given enough demand.

Only for US (and Canada?)...

19.9m shipped / 18.5m sold for PS4:

US: 13.5 months
EU and rest of America: 13 months
JP and Asia: 10.3 months

I've pointed this out earlier in the thread, but as Reggie would tell us, that isn't his problem.

Plenty of older consoles did not launch world wide, we count their LTD and launch align them all the time, we are just talking about numbers that don't really matter in the end anyways, it's not really important who "wins" the console war, as long as developers can make enough money to release their games on the platform, (and do so) we win.
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
http://time.com/4705071/nintendo-switch-production/

This production was increased to 16 Million for the 2017 FY that just ended. They sold 15.05M so that should give us an idea what 25-30 Million Switch unit produced for the 2018 FY means.

I'd suggest 23 to 28 Million units shipped this year is possible given enough demand.

The WSJ article is behind a paywall but I thought they reported 18M produced for this FY, not 16M. Or was that someone else?