I'm sure you all remember Game Dev Tycoon- it was a riff on Game Dev Story, a great iOS and Android game studio sim, that made waves a few years ago when it released on PC. This week, it launched on iOS- by all accounts, this should have been a slam dunk. The game was $5, with no ads, no further monetization, incredible word of mouth and reviews, and perfectly suited to iOS. What happened next, however, is sobering:
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Sale Numbers
1,463 copies in 24 hours is pretty good for a first game on a platform but if you take into account our audience and if we compare this data to other platforms and to the amount of copies we have to sell to break even on the mobile version, it becomes more sobering.
Even on the Windows 8 Store, back in 2011 when we had an audience reach of zero and very few people had Windows 8 (and even fewer wanted to have anything to do with the Store app on it), we sold around 450 copies on day one. Given the massive reach of iOS, the much lower price ($4.99) and given that we (tried) to reach our audience we certainly hoped for a better launch day.
To give another comparison, when the game launched on Steam we sold over 32,700 copies on day one.
App Store patience
Apple says that it can take up to 24 hours for the Store to be updated and show new releases. They are not kidding. We sent our newsletter out six hours after the game release (after we had tested the game link extensively among the team and our friends) but even 18 hours after release people were still saying that the link resolved to nothing. Game Dev Tycoon was also not showing up in search results and we were simply not visible in the Store for the clear majority of the day. This was rather stressful and unexpected. We certainly would consider a soft launch next time we release something on the App Store.
Charts
During the end of the first day, we did show up in Top Paid games' charts across the world which, given the sales numbers, was surprising. In the US we made spot 42 under Top Paid and in many 'Strategy' lists we were in the Top 20.
If you are wondering what Rank 42 in Top Paid relates to in Top Grossing category, the answer is apparently Rank 1,560+ which, together with our earnings from our first day, just highlights how steep the Top charts on the App Store fall. I suspect for premium games, if you are not in the Top 30, you are not very profitable (though this is all based on App Annie rather than data from Apple so take it with a grain of salt).
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You can check out the full release day analysis for yourself on Greenheart's website.
For me, it's the fact that a game can sell just 1600 copies and still rank in the top 50 that's the most eye opening- it indicates that, in spite of the massive, billion device install base iOS has, most people are not paying for games. This also demonstrates that traditional games apparently simply don't have a market on iOS (and even less so on Android, where people are known to spend less money on apps)- $5 is not a huge amount for a great game that can last you dozens of hours (I have over a hundred hours on the Steam release, and another hundred from the pre-Steam one)- but people won't spend that money.
What this should demonstrate more than anything is how top heavy the mobile market is. You can make bank, as long as you are at the top- but if you are not, it's a struggle to even get noticed, and make any money back. It also shows that mobile gamers are so used to the idea of games being free, they won't spend any money on them- they would rather have their games lag with bullshit ads, or spend hundreds of dollars on abusive in app purchases, than spend the price of one coffee on a great game.
What this shows us, most of all, that mobiles may have a massive install base- but as a gaming platform, they are not necessarily commercially viable for everyone. Sure, you can have the good luck of inexplicably going viral like Flappy Bird did; or you can have a major brand attached to you like Pokemon GO did (and even that's not a guarantee, as Mario Run showed us); or you can have hundreds of millions to advertise your game relentlessly, like with Clash of Clans and Game of War, so that mobile gamers will at least look into downloading the game once, leading to those games charting, and then further downloads and interest- but what if you don't have those hundreds of millions of dollars? What then?
What I am saying is, mobile gaming has become a race to the bottom, with games being devalued to the point that a paid game doesn't even need to sell much to chart, and you need to have equity via brand recognition or advertising to do well. The dream of mobile gaming being the future doesn't seem that likely, given the situation as suggested by this example (and many others, including something as surefire of a hit as Super Mario Run).
--
Sale Numbers
1,463 copies in 24 hours is pretty good for a first game on a platform but if you take into account our audience and if we compare this data to other platforms and to the amount of copies we have to sell to break even on the mobile version, it becomes more sobering.
Even on the Windows 8 Store, back in 2011 when we had an audience reach of zero and very few people had Windows 8 (and even fewer wanted to have anything to do with the Store app on it), we sold around 450 copies on day one. Given the massive reach of iOS, the much lower price ($4.99) and given that we (tried) to reach our audience we certainly hoped for a better launch day.
To give another comparison, when the game launched on Steam we sold over 32,700 copies on day one.
App Store patience
Apple says that it can take up to 24 hours for the Store to be updated and show new releases. They are not kidding. We sent our newsletter out six hours after the game release (after we had tested the game link extensively among the team and our friends) but even 18 hours after release people were still saying that the link resolved to nothing. Game Dev Tycoon was also not showing up in search results and we were simply not visible in the Store for the clear majority of the day. This was rather stressful and unexpected. We certainly would consider a soft launch next time we release something on the App Store.
Charts
During the end of the first day, we did show up in Top Paid games' charts across the world which, given the sales numbers, was surprising. In the US we made spot 42 under Top Paid and in many 'Strategy' lists we were in the Top 20.
If you are wondering what Rank 42 in Top Paid relates to in Top Grossing category, the answer is apparently Rank 1,560+ which, together with our earnings from our first day, just highlights how steep the Top charts on the App Store fall. I suspect for premium games, if you are not in the Top 30, you are not very profitable (though this is all based on App Annie rather than data from Apple so take it with a grain of salt).
---
You can check out the full release day analysis for yourself on Greenheart's website.
For me, it's the fact that a game can sell just 1600 copies and still rank in the top 50 that's the most eye opening- it indicates that, in spite of the massive, billion device install base iOS has, most people are not paying for games. This also demonstrates that traditional games apparently simply don't have a market on iOS (and even less so on Android, where people are known to spend less money on apps)- $5 is not a huge amount for a great game that can last you dozens of hours (I have over a hundred hours on the Steam release, and another hundred from the pre-Steam one)- but people won't spend that money.
What this should demonstrate more than anything is how top heavy the mobile market is. You can make bank, as long as you are at the top- but if you are not, it's a struggle to even get noticed, and make any money back. It also shows that mobile gamers are so used to the idea of games being free, they won't spend any money on them- they would rather have their games lag with bullshit ads, or spend hundreds of dollars on abusive in app purchases, than spend the price of one coffee on a great game.
What this shows us, most of all, that mobiles may have a massive install base- but as a gaming platform, they are not necessarily commercially viable for everyone. Sure, you can have the good luck of inexplicably going viral like Flappy Bird did; or you can have a major brand attached to you like Pokemon GO did (and even that's not a guarantee, as Mario Run showed us); or you can have hundreds of millions to advertise your game relentlessly, like with Clash of Clans and Game of War, so that mobile gamers will at least look into downloading the game once, leading to those games charting, and then further downloads and interest- but what if you don't have those hundreds of millions of dollars? What then?
What I am saying is, mobile gaming has become a race to the bottom, with games being devalued to the point that a paid game doesn't even need to sell much to chart, and you need to have equity via brand recognition or advertising to do well. The dream of mobile gaming being the future doesn't seem that likely, given the situation as suggested by this example (and many others, including something as surefire of a hit as Super Mario Run).
