I think you misunderstand me. All of this is intensely problematic and I agree with it being as bad as 08 at least.
However, the snapback of bailouts and mass liquidity combined with opportunities for market rallies might have the markets leading ahead of pandemic and actual production. The concern here is not the same as 08. It's definitely a massive hit, but it is not likely to be as long-term systemically as the 08 recession are.
Now, how the lagging effects of this hit ripple through the economy long-term is a whole other question. We will see in the upcoming weeks.
I just don't think it's as simple as saying a global pandemic is going to destroy the mfg and services therefore all the stocks will continue to drop for the foreseeable future. I'm not saying that's not a true statement, but it's just not as simple as that alone.
Systemically there are just as many concerns as there were in 08. Air travel will take at least 12 months to recover, if not longer. Hospitality industries are wiped out. Healthcare and insurance premiums will sky rocket. The entire world is hoarding US cash skewing terms of trade.
The housing and banking crisis of the GFC was obviously far narrower and severe in scope but considering there were already significant warning signs globally of an impending recession before this hit, it may be a little bit optimistic to believe the path to recovery will be shorter.
If anything, given the possibility of global sustained lockdown, the market is behind the curve. We could see unemployment rates in the 20-30% range within 4 or 5 months, that is the underlying risk factor and if it even reaches 10-15% the path to recovery will far exceed that of the GFC.
Coverage of the pandemic is very skewed in the US, it's only really just caught up in the last week or so. Once the severity of the situation truly settles into public consciousness all bets are off on how far it can slide.
