The Dow is down AKA Stock Market Watch 2020. Update: Pump before the dump.

T0M

Member
Aug 13, 2019
362
You entered too early. The only reason it wouldn’t be green today is if the stimulus bill failed again. Expect another little pump once the vote passes. Unemployment tomorrow is probably priced in as well unless it’s truly catastrophic. Which it might be, I’m considering reloading my puts after the stimulus vote. Going mid May though.
Can't argue with that. It seems to have leveled off. My spreads don't expire until mid April, so I'm hoping to hit break even ($230) and roll them over into May. SPY hasn't broken its resistance points at least, very encouraging sign.
 

Lyrick

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,092
Saving my money for April 3rd. Either there's a big dip, or the market proves itself to be stable-ish.
I think both are going to be insane.

I'm in a medium sized (20-30K) college town in the northern plain states. All my local restaurants, bars and brew pubs are carry out/delivery only now. They operated with partial staffs last week to assist in consumption of perishables and help all their employees fill out unemployment claim papers. All the actual Bars are now Closed until further notice.

My town is in the middle of nowhere, the University buildings are off limits so pretty much all support staff is on leave, and all non essential City buildings and offices are shuttered. The only jobs outside of Grocery still operating semi normally are the Food and Medical manufacturing sites.

I'm not sure how far behind the timeline this locale is compared to other shutdowns nationwide, but Unemployment claims are going to be coming in real hot.
 

MrBob

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,469
Yeah I'm of the opinion the jobs report is the worst kept secret. Everyone knows a bad number is coming. I am curious though to see how the market reacts on its release. Want to see how much it reacts, if at all.

I think it needs to be way worse than expected to get a big reaction but we will see.
 

MrBob

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,469
Vix is still high my friend. Market will keep swinging up and down, even intraday, until the vix levels out way lower from its current level.
 

Sheepinator

Member
Jul 25, 2018
9,581
I see talk elsewhere of pension fund rebalancing by March 31st leading to buying pressure in stocks in that time (possibly some of which happened yesterday). I don't know how true that is. If so, a bad jobs report might mean a dip which recovers quickly.
 

prophetvx

Member
Nov 28, 2017
1,724
Why wouldn't the market have already priced in a huge unemployment number? Everyone can see it's going to be huge.
Most people will be expecting a 1-3% drop, which historically is a massive drop, even if the reporting doesn't match it. The reality is the drop could be close to 2 figures even with limited impact to date.

People may be somewhat optimistic of a quick recovery based on messaging from the government and somewhat limited media coverage to date, that bubble will burst quickly if those unemployment numbers are as drastic as expected.
 

feline fury

Member
Dec 8, 2017
748
Yeah I'm of the opinion the jobs report is the worst kept secret. Everyone knows a bad number is coming. I am curious though to see how the market reacts on its release. Want to see how much it reacts, if at all.

I think it needs to be way worse than expected to get a big reaction but we will see.
Does the apparent unemployment insurance stimulus in the coming bill blunt the effects of poor unemployment numbers? I mean, if money is pouring into people's pockets, will the market care about unemployment numbers (in the short/medium term when this bill will keep people from missing their monthly payments and keep food on the table)?
 

Sheepinator

Member
Jul 25, 2018
9,581
Does the apparent unemployment insurance stimulus in the coming bill blunt the effects of poor unemployment numbers? I mean, if money is pouring into people's pockets, will the market care about unemployment numbers (in the short/medium term when this bill will keep people from missing their monthly payments and keep food on the table)?
That helps the people for a while, but there's no guarantee the lost jobs return. I'm sure I'm not the only person wary of sitting in restaurants until there's a vaccine.
 

prophetvx

Member
Nov 28, 2017
1,724
Does the apparent unemployment insurance stimulus in the coming bill blunt the effects of poor unemployment numbers? I mean, if money is pouring into people's pockets, will the market care about unemployment numbers (in the short/medium term when this bill will keep people from missing their monthly payments and keep food on the table)?
People aren't buying stocks if they're on unemployment insurance, poor numbers will shock the market with a lot of mom and pop investors pulling their money.

Investors will care because a significant reduction in the workforce means a far longer ramp time to recovery, businesses don't just do layoffs en masse then recover that talent overnight.
 

MrBob

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,469
Does the apparent unemployment insurance stimulus in the coming bill blunt the effects of poor unemployment numbers? I mean, if money is pouring into people's pockets, will the market care about unemployment numbers (in the short/medium term when this bill will keep people from missing their monthly payments and keep food on the table)?
If the bill is true and small business is about to get two months free lunch if they don't lay anyone off and pay their workers. This is likely to be a big boon to stop the economy from tanking if business start functioning again a couple months from now and people back to work.

With the huge caveat we don't know how much covid 19 will impact overall. I think it is safe to say we are in uncharted territory.

Broadly speaking I still believe we are in a bear market until the technical data starts proving otherwise. We have never had an economy completely stop before so it is hard to say how long it takes to get running once back up.

It doesn't mean every stock will stay down. We are truly in a stock picking market at the moment where there will be some winners.
 
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molnizzle

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
10,907
If I had $500 to invest what would be the smartest thing to put it in?
Right now? A savings account. Current market is wild and unpredictable.

Why wouldn't the market have already priced in a huge unemployment number? Everyone can see it's going to be huge.
Yes.

...but if the number is even larger than expected, the market will drill. Conversely, if the numbers are better than Wall Street's expectations, the market will rally. Investing in the stock market is a big game of betting on whether the outcome of an event will be in line with the market makers' expectations. That's why you'll sometimes see a company's share price drop after a profitable earnings report. The company made money -- just not as much as Wall Street was expecting them to make.
 
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Prax

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,747
I bought some shares of TransAlta Renewables because I thought it was cheap, had a high yield, and was Canadian and in renewables..

I wanted to buy when it was closer to $10.50, but didn't have money in the account until today. Timing was ok since I guess since it's taking off now.. for now.. I'm sure I'll have more future chances for buying it for cheap when the real economic numbers come in lol.
 

Octodad

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,519
Why not? They’re a honey badger. It’s business as usual, they just delivered Y ahead of schedule amidst the chaos and cybertruck will outsell the F150 next year.
It's a risk for sure. They're potentially awesome, but also could collapse. They don't have the runway that traditional companies have and they are on the higher end of cost for cars.
 

MrBob

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,469
Epic squeeze happening right now. Maybe the market is going to charge for 2600 to try and challenge it. Fun to watch.
 

MrBob

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,469
I should've sold today instead of yesterday lol. Oh, well. Did half knowing this could happen. Let's see if this holds today and I'll do the other half.
I wouldn't worry about it. It never hurts to take profit and just like it is impossible to time a bottom, it is also impossible to time the sell at the top. Unless you are very lucky in both cases.

For me the VIX doesn't seem to be buying this rally today, but that's what makes watching the markets fun. Sometimes they surprise you. I had SP500 potentially challenging 2600-2640 level as a possible high on this rally, but I didn't think we would get near there in almost two days. In the mean time we have individual stocks up 50-60-70-100 percent plus in one week. The insanity in this market is truly something right now.
 
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Barzul

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,398
I’ve made double my position on $NCLH in just 5 days. This market is crazy. Just waiting for the house to pass this bill. I do think the folks saying next week will bring another crash are spot on, just not sure it’ll be massive one.
 

SRG01

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,911
I wouldn't worry about it. It never hurts to take profit and just like it is impossible to time a bottom, it is also impossible to time the sell at the top. Unless you are very lucky in both cases.

For me the VIX doesn't seem to be buying this rally today, but that's what makes watching the markets fun. Sometimes they surprise you. I had SP500 potentially challenging 2600-2640 level as a possible high on this rally, but I didn't think we would get near there in almost two days. This market is wild.
The VIX doesn't always track market movements. Also remember that VIX primarily tracks options activity and that options expiry was this past Saturday.

I’ve made double my position on $NCLH in just 5 days. This market is crazy. Just waiting for the house to pass this bill. I do think the folks saying next week will bring another crash are spot on, just not sure it’ll be massive one.
The market has *not* priced in double-digit unemployment. But, as the saying goes, 'the market will be irrational longer than you can be solvent'...