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Stock Market Watch |OT| I've stocked up on market watches, what now?

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ChrisR

ChrisR

Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,795
AndyD

AndyD

Mambo Number PS5
Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,602
Nashville
I see his point to a certain extent. Congress gets a vacation when others are deemed essential. If they were to allow remote voting that's something else.
 
renegade_sylens

renegade_sylens

Member
Nov 5, 2017
3,478
Lyrick said:
yeah, that what he's pushing towards in the second post
twitter.com

Thomas Massie on Twitter

“(2/11)The Constitution requires that a quorum of members be present to conduct business in the House. Right now, millions of essential, working-class Americans are still required to go to work during this pandemic such as manufacturing line workers, healthcare professionals,”
twitter.com twitter.com
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I would feel bad if someone actually becomes infected with the virus because of this representative's lone disagreement in going along with a voice vote....
 

Min

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,068
ChrisR said:
Since when has the market matched reality in the past few weeks? Not that I think we are near the bottom, but the past few days shows me the market lives in a magical place.
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We just had the fed pump in $1.5T and then congress just passed a $2T stimulus/bailout. Of course the market is going to be up. Corporations just got free money for stock buybacks and those those stocks have dropped >35% in the past month. Thing is even with this giant stimulus the market is still >20% down from the beginning of February.

The stock market seems pretty anchored in reality to me.
 
SneakersSO

SneakersSO

Banned
Oct 24, 2017
1,353
North America
Servbot24 said:
True but I also think we may have seen the bottom already. Even though it dipped today, it's still way above where it was last week.
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Thats because this week has been the 'we need to get back to work ASAP' week, which businesses know needs to happen for the market to rally, and the government administration is pushing even though all health officials are warning them doing so too soon is an awful idea. We take this news as the market thinking its bad, but the market takes indications from the government as this hopefully happening soon; you can see these sorts of affects like when the market would try to rally around the news that the stimulus bill was about to pass the senate, only for the senate to have the vote fail and get delayed for a few days at a time, thus causing another drop, which was pretty much all of last week.

The other thing that has given the market 'confidence' this week is those early reports that the virus isn't spreading as fast in more humid/warmer climates. Even though that study is highly questionable, the reality is that most of America is about to head into warmer/more humid months, and that report alongside Trump saying he wants everyone back to work by April is what is giving the market the confidence to rally.

All the underlying problems though? Still there. Unemployment numbers are a disaster which are only going to steadily grow; the virus is now spreading outside of the known major spots the US was already worried about (Seattle/NYC/California) and it spreading in Louisiana flies in the face of the warmer/humid report, and the effects of consumer spending on non-essentials flat-lining haven't even begun to really be measured. Heck, even details on the stimulus bills that the market was relying on, like Cruise Liner companies receiving bail out money only to later be discovered the ones who aren't registered in the US will not be receiving taxpayer funds, is only being discovered now.
 
Sheepinator

Sheepinator

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Jul 25, 2018
27,956
Like I said yesterday, Easter is fantasy for the US getting back to work and I think that's a big factor in the recent rally, that the light seen at the end of the tunnel is very close. It isn't. Italy just reported their daily numbers. Deaths soared to a new high, and new cases remains stubbornly elevated just below the peak of 6 days ago. They're 17 days into a national lockdown. It's going to be at least 6 weeks total from when they started before they can even consider relaxing. The US still only has localized shutdowns of varying severity. Even early May looks optimistic I think.
 
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prophetvx

prophetvx

Member
Nov 28, 2017
5,329
Haz said:
We'll see 10x the cases in 4-6 weeks and stupid unemployment numbers.
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At the current rate of spread, it's only about 3 weeks until it reaches around 10x the current number. 6 weeks would put it at 100x the current number (around 84m). Social distancing will obviously slow it but given how inconsistently and terribly many areas are rolling it out, coupled with Trump resuming operations in a couple of weeks, there will be a major shock coming.
 
LanceX2

LanceX2

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,820
Servbot24 said:
Yeah. Despite selling at the wrong time yesterday, I still don't feel bad in general about having sold. The time to buy back in is a week away I think.
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Hey. I got 2000 sitting in a roth and 600-1000 on robinhood rhat I may get my feet wet.

next week are you thinking we will keep going down?

Just trying to stretch my money as much as I can since im not in a rush to invest and its for retirement.
 
whatsinaname

whatsinaname

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,054
Still expecting one last pump before end of day Friday. The bill might help. Next week is time to bunker down and close the storm doors.
 
Gordon's Tulpa

Gordon's Tulpa

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,625
Mr.Awesome said:
So does anyone want to call it and say weve seen the bottom? Lots of others on the other side in here. I'm leaning towards that weve seen the bottom but not really willing to defend that statement.
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Dude 3.5 million people just lost their jobs, this economy is in a standstill and a measly 1200 dollar handout is not going to change that. It will get much worse as people feel the pinch of recession. This is not the bottom by any stretch of the imagination.
 
zulux21

zulux21

Member
Oct 25, 2017
20,350
whatsinaname said:
Still expecting one last pump before end of day Friday. The bill might help. Next week is time to bunker down and close the storm doors.
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I'm thinking if the bill doesn't pass today, it will be good for one more positive day early next week.
That's when I will be bailing with my modest investment as I expect it to drop quite a bit after that again.

once the bill is passed and that boost fades I'm not sure what else would legitimately boost it for a while short of the USA legitimately being able to open back up, which absolutely nothing legitimately points towards that happening any time soon.
 
molnizzle

molnizzle

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
17,695
I was tempted to sell my puts at SPY -3% to reload after the bill passed, but I held back in case of fuckery. Looks like I would've been okay. Ah well, it was above my risk tolerance after getting pounded for the past 2 weeks.
 

Deleted member 8741

user requested account closure
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Oct 26, 2017
4,917
LanceX2 said:
lol.

I dont know why I worry about my 2000 in roth. its for 26 years out and just a matter of few extra shares if I buy in a dip.

Im new to this shit lol.

Trying to figure out what stocks to buy for a gain in 2-3 years too
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You need to chill man. You are trying to gamble in uncharted waters. I don't know why you think getting advice for that here is a good idea. The best advice you can receive is to stop trying to time the market and gamble. Put it in an ETF and forget about it until you retire.
 
RBH

RBH

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Nov 2, 2017
32,867
Gordon's Tulpa said:
Dude 3.5 million people just lost their jobs, this economy is in a standstill and a measly 1200 dollar handout is not going to change that. It will get much worse as people feel the pinch of recession. This is not the bottom by any stretch of the imagination.
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Yeah, it's pretty damn foolish to think that we're at the bottom right now.

We've barely scratched the surface
 
Malleymal

Malleymal

Member
Oct 28, 2017
6,285
The bottom is far away. We don't have this pandemic even close to contained and business can try their best to open back up, but people will stay home when they see the dead bodies piling up. More lost jobs coming and trump being trump. Trump is using the stock market as a way to make money for him and his cronies. They will make a killing while this virus kills.
 
prophetvx

prophetvx

Member
Nov 28, 2017
5,329
We'll see at least another 30-40% contraction from where we are currently, optimistically at best a 20% contraction. Anyone who thinks otherwise is delusional.

The American economy hasn't even seen pain from this yet other than shareholders. It's entering week 2 of mass unemployment, in a time where it will be at best, 6 months of sustained mass unemployment. Retail and hospitality industries will be decimated. Service industries will face significant contraction and the flow on effect across everything will be significant.

To be brutally honest, I think even 30-40% may be optimistic. Currently the US is in a state of delusion about this, that will change quickly as the bodies start stacking up, it's on course to be far worse than Italy unless there is a drastic change of course.
 
FinKL

FinKL

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
2,949
The problem is these short term pops just wreck all options and mindsets. I agree we aren't even close to bottom, but short term we popping and selling depending on fiscal news.
 
Parch

Parch

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Nov 6, 2017
7,980
It's a bull trap.
Same thing happened during the dot.com and financial crisis crash. A temporary bounce before more big drops.
Day traders who learned from history are making a killing. They bought on Monday and sold on Thursday.
 
Elven_Star

Elven_Star

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Oct 27, 2017
3,958
So, help me understand this. A disaster strikes which is out of people's control, businesses take huge damage, a funny number of people lose their jobs, markets sink. A huge "package" is introduced, immediately everything is fine again. How? This package must come from somewhere (more federal debt I assume). Isn't that going to fuck up the economy on its own? If so, why are the markets happy now? I know nothing about this stuff. Enlighten me.
 
SmokeMaxX

SmokeMaxX

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,336
Elven_Star said:
So, help me understand this. A disaster strikes which is out of people's control, businesses take huge damage, a funny number of people lose their jobs, markets sink. A huge "package" is introduced, immediately everything is fine again. How? This package must come from somewhere (more federal debt I assume). Isn't that going to fuck up the economy on its own? If so, why are the markets happy now? I know nothing about this stuff. Enlighten me.
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It is technically "good" news in a sea of bad news. I'd expect a temporary bump before the eventual bloodbath.
 
molnizzle

molnizzle

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
17,695
Elven_Star said:
So, help me understand this. A disaster strikes which is out of people's control, businesses take huge damage, a funny number of people lose their jobs, markets sink. A huge "package" is introduced, immediately everything is fine again. How? This package must come from somewhere (more federal debt I assume). Isn't that going to fuck up the economy on its own? If so, why are the markets happy now? I know nothing about this stuff. Enlighten me.
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Markets aren't "happy." We're currently down nearly 25% compared to a month ago. All the stuff that's happening now is exactly why we've already dropped this far. The market makers on Wall Street try to stay ahead of things. Our current worsening situation is not a surprise to them.

That said, markets also spike at points on the way down. Happens every recession. We could still end up lower a month from now.
 
SpottieO

SpottieO

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,609
Skel1ingt0n said:
Buddy just liquifed about $15K in stocks. Said "if you don't have six months of emergency funds in your checking account during this, but you have anything in the stock market, you're a dumbass."

I don't think I agree. But I also don't... disagree.
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He's kind of right though. If you don't have an emergency fund I'm not sure I would want money in the market outside of 401ks or an IRA. Maybe maybe he has good reasons why his emergency fund was depleted but I don't know if I would ever be comfortable right now without six months of expenses saved up.
 
Skel1ingt0n

Skel1ingt0n

Member
Oct 28, 2017
8,723
SpottieO said:
He's kind of right though. If you don't have an emergency fund I'm not sure I would want money in the market outside of 401ks or an IRA. Maybe maybe he has good reasons why his emergency fund was depleted but I don't know if I would ever be comfortable right now without six months of expenses saved up.
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Yeah, I've thought on it more. I always keep three months emergency stashed up, max my 401K, and make one extra house payment each year - those have consistently been my primary career/savings goals for the last ~3-4 years. Anything else (there isn't much), I either invest or consider to be fun money for dinners/video games/splurges/trips/going out/fun stuff/etc (that isn't bills/mortgage).

But considering the volatility of it all, I heeded his advice. I just liquefied some investments so now I've got roughly six months of emergency funds.
 
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