curious if I should buy a handful more lol. got 30 bucks in my account left to spend.
limiting myself to 1000 outside my roth til I see how I do lol
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Stock Market Watch |OT| I've stocked up on market watches, what now?
- Thread starter Mr.Awesome
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limiting myself to 1000 outside my roth til I see how I do lol
My expectation is a decline in the near term to the recent lows, so about 11% more down from here. I doubt we'll make new lows though. Italy and Spain are past the peak, and everyone is waiting for the US to reach the peak and that will be the catalyst to rally. There's just too much stimulus, an obscene amount of stimulus. There's also a ton of bad news coming though, and a test of the recent lows would be healthy imo.
The new 30 days guideline is optimistic though. If the US peak is two to three weeks from now, it'll take another three or four weeks before the whole country can open back up. Trump will probably push for it to be sooner though, which will lead to more outbreaks and more localized shutdowns, for which he'll hand-wave away as being the States problem and he takes no responsibility.
I personally think it will drop a little but not reach last week's lows. Just a total guess though.
Great podcast with the Zoltan Poszar and Perry Mehrling discussing funding issues.
Perry has a free online course on Money and Banking if anyone is interested, they sure as shit didn't teach it this way a decade ago, he's a great listen. Not sure how the material is presented in today's classroom, but Eurodollar was never discussed in a traditional Money & Banking course when I was in school, you'd have to take an International Finance course to become familiar with it. Prof Mehrling does a good job blending the two together.
Perry has a free online course on Money and Banking if anyone is interested, they sure as shit didn't teach it this way a decade ago, he's a great listen. Not sure how the material is presented in today's classroom, but Eurodollar was never discussed in a traditional Money & Banking course when I was in school, you'd have to take an International Finance course to become familiar with it. Prof Mehrling does a good job blending the two together.
It's going to sawtooth until late summer probably. You can make money on the way up or down, if you know how to trade.
Everyone asking for or providing predictions in here. Decades of historical data suggest your guesses are as good as anyone else's. If anyone could accurately predict these things with any accuracy they'd be billionaires. There is literally no point to trying to predict a bottom in events like this.
The smartest strategy for the vast majority of people is to layer in your money over time. Let's say you've got $10,000 in a Roth IRA you want to put into stocks to hold for years to come. You buy $2,000 today of either SPY or VOO. Both are S&P 500 index funds. A week later, or if there happens to be a really big down day, you spend another $2,000. The point is you layer in the money while trying not to pinpoint the absolute best time to do it because that's like trying to shoot a squirrel dead between the eyes while it's dancing about in your backyard.
Over time you have averaged your price of that index and once you've spent what you want to spend you let it be. This is how every 401K works, and it's proven over time to be the best way to do this sort of stuff. If you allow your emotions to get in the way of your decisions chances are high you'll make big mistakes.
The smartest strategy for the vast majority of people is to layer in your money over time. Let's say you've got $10,000 in a Roth IRA you want to put into stocks to hold for years to come. You buy $2,000 today of either SPY or VOO. Both are S&P 500 index funds. A week later, or if there happens to be a really big down day, you spend another $2,000. The point is you layer in the money while trying not to pinpoint the absolute best time to do it because that's like trying to shoot a squirrel dead between the eyes while it's dancing about in your backyard.
Over time you have averaged your price of that index and once you've spent what you want to spend you let it be. This is how every 401K works, and it's proven over time to be the best way to do this sort of stuff. If you allow your emotions to get in the way of your decisions chances are high you'll make big mistakes.
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Dow jumps more than 450 points as Wall Street concludes another wild session
Stocks rose in volatile trading as oil prices jumped on expectations Saudi Arabia and Russia will ease the pressure off the oil market.
U.S. stock futures jumped after a surge in the price of oil, a financial market which has collapsed this year and raised concerns about hefty losses for the energy industry.
A big jobless claims report ahead at 8:30 am ET would likely determine the direction of the market on Thursday.
Dow futures were up 350 points, implying a 300-point rise at the open. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were also set to open higher.
Economists expect another 4 million to 5 million workers filed for jobless claims last week as coronavirus-related shutdowns roll through the country. The estimates range as high as 9 million.
But WTI crude jumped 10% to back above $22 a barrel on Thursday after President Donald Trump said he expects Saudi Arabia and Russia to come to an agreement about their price war that has added to the pain for the crude market, already getting hit by an unprecedented demand slowdown from the coronavirus.
U.S. weekly jobless claims blow past six million as coronavirus lockdowns spread
The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits shot to a record high of more than 6 million last week as more jurisdictions enforced stay-at-home measures to curb the coronavirus pandemic, which economists say has pushed the economy into recession.
www.reuters.com
Thursday's weekly jobless claims report from the Labor Department, the most timely data on the economy's health, is expected to show that claims blew past the previous week's record 3.3 million. It will likely reinforce economists' views that the longest employment boom in U.S. history probably ended in March.
I believe so, yeah, especially once companies start releasing their Q1 financials and Q2 outlooks. By how much remains to be seen.
To me, I view all of stocks being on a discount, so whether it's $20 below the market high or it can drop another $10 I'm still getting them at a "discount" regardless.
Surely the market will rip up today! "Priced in" of course!
(this is fucking insane)
Holy shit! Not surprising considering what we've all been seeing across the country but still, holy shit!
The stock market will be going up as people are rioting in the streets and burning places to the ground.
Does the DOL have an estimation of how many of these jobless people are laid off vs. furloughed?
"Coffin and fire extinguisher companies are on a tear, baby! Buy, Mortimer, buy!"
I think when all is said and done the Dow Jones will hit the state of around 2013/14.
So quite a bit below 15.000.
What happened in 2008 to the housing market will now happen to every area of the economy that is debt-driven(which is almost all of them). This debt-driven approach works as long as the market is growing and that growth alone is enough to ensure loan payments incl. interest, but as soon as that growth is gone(like during a pandemic) loan after loan will be defaulted on.
And these loans have been repackaged into countless different financial products and have then been bet on and these bets represent the investment sums that keep this economy going.
It's basically an economy betting on itself. And now that bet was lost.
It just takes a while for that realization to set it.
Thanks for this. Also going to check out the course since I have a ton of free time now.
While the situation is absolutely shit I can't help but laugh at the quick turnaround in the situation. Rising oil prices gave the market a bump (with expectations of 4 to 5 million jobless claims expected) but reality came in and destroyed it all with 6.6 million claims.
It's interesting to me that we often hear the argument that the real players work with far more information and make better decisions than any average joe could, but still the market is this news-driven.
Those aren't necessarily mutually exclusive things, but I can't imagine the wild swings happening on news is driven by small-timers.
The Idea that the Market will go right back to where it left off.
Alternately it could be a U shape that would drop, but continue along the same slope afterwards.
Worse case it could be an L shape where it drops and never recovers and just flatlines (Japan/Greece)
Recession shapes - Wikipedia
It's the expectation that markets will recover very quickly, just as they sunk quickly.
Economists are quickly abandoning the idea that we are going to get a V shaped recovery as the damage gets worse and worse. Bank of America's new estimate is that GDP will barely be even in Q3 after cratering in Q2.
Our recovery is going to be a long slow recovery.
If unemployment us currently a -85degree angle, recovery will be a 7-13degree angle
With 10 million jobless claims, and assuming 2019 numbers of 130 million workers in the US, that brings us to a 7.7% jobless rate!
PrICEd iN
Plus 3.5% full employment. We are closer to 11% unemployment right now.
Plus 3.5% full employment. We are closer to 11% unemployment right now.
"Real" players do work with more and better information but one has to keep in mind that not even their information is all-encompassing. Said players can also make dumb decisions or at least get things wrong. Sometimes events occur that even they could not have predicted. Look at how Tesla performed and wrecked all the doubters in the past few months lol.
Ok guys, here is my feedback. I'm no expert, and I'm relatively new to investing. Here are my observations of the two stocks I'm heavily invested in.
First I think I have found the lows for MSFT & Nike. MSFT = 139-141, 65-70. I'm kicking myself that I didn't buy-in at this stage ( i thought it might go lower), that said we will have another steep low before this gets settled out. If you have any interest in these stocks if they hit this range dump all you have in it.
my speculation play is twitter, I'm waiting for $20 per share then I'm going all in.
Penny stock option: Apheria currently hovers between 2 and 3 dollars, past performance suggest it could hit 15. This medical/recreational weed company has the best balance sheet in the weed space.
for the lulz if tesla hits 400, I will by in
First I think I have found the lows for MSFT & Nike. MSFT = 139-141, 65-70. I'm kicking myself that I didn't buy-in at this stage ( i thought it might go lower), that said we will have another steep low before this gets settled out. If you have any interest in these stocks if they hit this range dump all you have in it.
my speculation play is twitter, I'm waiting for $20 per share then I'm going all in.
Penny stock option: Apheria currently hovers between 2 and 3 dollars, past performance suggest it could hit 15. This medical/recreational weed company has the best balance sheet in the weed space.
for the lulz if tesla hits 400, I will by in
If you're wondering how Dear Leader is dealing with 10M new unemployed, thousands dead and a stock market crash on his watch (and partly his fault)... Even if he ends up not going due to public shaming, good luck getting him to pay back that $45K of taxpayer money he just put in his pocket.
Banks warn of chaotic launch of small business lending program
They're concerned that the expectations the administration has publicly set are unrealistic.
www.politico.com
Hope it goes even lower.
Banks warn of chaotic launch of small business lending program
They're concerned that the expectations the administration has publicly set are unrealistic.
Yeah...so this is going to be real bad.
Banks warn of chaotic launch of small business lending program
They're concerned that the expectations the administration has publicly set are unrealistic.
Both of the friends with small businesses have applied with multiple banks and no one knows how to do any of it. This is what one of them was told:
"so what are we meeting to discuss today", and then when I mentioned payroll, she replied, "hmm, I don't know much about that."
Plus they are worried that the limit on non-payroll expenditures is too low for them to keep paying rent. With no sales and no revenue the loans would be essentially the only money the business has.
My friend in finance is still claiming that 6 million was priced in. Thing is, the market is so weird he could be right.
EDIT: I should say, he said the whispered number he was hearing was 7 million, so it came out slightly better than that.
Banks warn of chaotic launch of small business lending program
They're concerned that the expectations the administration has publicly set are unrealistic.
Ooh, that's no bueno.
The last thing we need is for a whole swath of small businesses to go belly-up because the SBA dropped the ball.
Personal interest. I want to invest in clean energy and I think they're one of the stronger companies. I'm also keeping an eye on ENPH.
The consensus figure was around 3 million, I don't buy that for one second.
These clowns will find any reason to keep the markets propped up.
Is this mainly just energy sector speculation that the Saudis and Vlad are gonna make a deal?
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