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The Mansion Mafia - Hold on tightly to your secrets

Oct 25, 2017
1,158
At this point, I'd vote for Kitsune, Dubs, Muffin, and Luxcommander. Luxcommander only seems scummy due to the voting of everyone else to me, and there's a wealth of info to gather if we get his flip.
 

Hecht

These are my salad days
Administrator
Oct 24, 2017
4,262
...I think you don't tbh
I think that there are 6 scum. 5 or 7, possibly, but I'm gonna go with 6 atm. If scum split their votes relatively evenly amongst the train and the not-train (i.e. 4 for grizz/lux and 2 for something else), then the not-train sits at 29% chance to hit scum vs the 24% chance to hit scum by looking at the other votes.
 

Hecht

These are my salad days
Administrator
Oct 24, 2017
4,262
I think that there are 6 scum. 5 or 7, possibly, but I'm gonna go with 6 atm. If scum split their votes relatively evenly amongst the train and the not-train (i.e. 4 for grizz/lux and 2 for something else), then the not-train sits at 29% chance to hit scum vs the 24% chance to hit scum by looking at the other votes.
Actually scratch that, let me take Grizz, Aeleus, and Kopite out of the equation

40% to hit scum on the non-train
25% to hit scum on the train
 
Oct 26, 2017
6,381
I think that there are 6 scum. 5 or 7, possibly, but I'm gonna go with 6 atm. If scum split their votes relatively evenly amongst the train and the not-train (i.e. 4 for grizz/lux and 2 for something else), then the not-train sits at 29% chance to hit scum vs the 24% chance to hit scum by looking at the other votes.
That's a good way to play mafia for sure, excluding the train because of probability that works under baseless assumptions you make about the scum team, like that they split completely evenly between the trains. (I'm disregarding that you still call the GF lynch a "non-train", even if that isnt the truth, but I already said that)
 

Hecht

These are my salad days
Administrator
Oct 24, 2017
4,262
That's a good way to play mafia for sure, excluding the train because of probability that works under baseless assumptions you make about the scum team, like that they split completely evenly between the trains. (I'm disregarding that you still call the GF lynch a "non-train", even if that isnt the truth, but I already said that)
Your assumption is based on the fact that I wouldn't come back to those voters later. I undoubtedly would. I'm talking about today.
 
Oct 26, 2017
6,381
I made a lengthy joke about trying to solve a game scientifically once, but I couldn't foresee what bad influences that would have. I apologize.
 

Hecht

These are my salad days
Administrator
Oct 24, 2017
4,262
I made a lengthy joke about trying to solve a game scientifically once, but I couldn't foresee what bad influences that would have. I apologize.
lol
obviously I can't make a 100% correct assumption on how votes are split, but I can go with what the most likely, or average scenario would entail
 
Oct 26, 2017
6,381
I can only roll my eyes at this, but be my guest Hecht and do it that way. There are enough people who mentioned that they still want to look at people on the Grizz lynch today, so I guess it doesnt matter that much.
 

Hecht

These are my salad days
Administrator
Oct 24, 2017
4,262
I can only roll my eyes at this, but be my guest Hecht and do it that way. There are enough people who mentioned that they still want to look at people on the Grizz lynch today, so I guess it doesnt matter that much.
they are free to do that. I'm just going with what I got and how my wormy brain works.
 

Kitsunelaine

My favorite cake is pie
Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,273
this is what the game boils down to when we have too much information to work with and it's why I look to the proponents of having too much information to work with as suspect
 
Oct 25, 2017
746
I love that something most of our fights in this game have been on playstyles and tactics and not on actual players or events.

Godfather and I shouted about when to vote.
Stan and kits shouted about what the word strike means.
Muffin and Hecht are shouting about maths.

Amazing
 

Kitsunelaine

My favorite cake is pie
Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,273
Same reason Kits is against information? It has a pro-town-bias.
i'm against bad information

which is what provoking bad reactions and causing unfilterable chaosdoes

funny you should boil that down to just "Information" though, it must benefit you to quell the points i'm raising. OMGUS or suspect? I vote suspect
 
OP
OP
Brazil

Brazil

The Dude of Prophecy
Moderator
Oct 24, 2017
7,010
São Paulo, Brazil
==== DAY 2 VOTES ====
Day Start

Godfather (4 votes)
Kitsunelaine - #1,739
Kopite - #2,501 #2,511
B-Dubs - #2,528
Muffin - #2,649
saenima - #2,655

B-Dubs (3 votes)
Hecht - #1,967 #2,617
Hecht - #2,617
Girlofgotham - #2,724
Godfather - #2,725

LuxCommander (3 votes)
flatearthpandas - #1,876
Zippedpinhead - #2,121
SaucyKaz - #2,598

SaucyKaz (2 votes)
Aeleus - #1,731
Stuart444 - #1,796
BronsonLee - #1,916 #2,567

Z-Beat (1 votes)
LuxCommander - #2,101

turmoil7 (1 votes)
Kalor - #2,675

weemadarthur (1 votes)
turmoil7 - #2,665

Hecht (0 votes)
turmoil7 - #1,906 #2,665

Stuart444 (0 votes)
SaucyKaz - #1,800 #2,242
*Splinter - #2,141 (Double) #2,278

Aeleus (0 votes)
SaucyKaz - #2,242 #2,499
*Splinter - #2,278 (Double) #2,283
Kalor - #2,404 #2,431

flatearthpandas (0 votes)
saenima - #2,098 #2,655

Kitsunelaine (0 votes)
Hecht - #1,742 #1,967
Godfather - #1,781 #2,725

Post Counts:
Hecht: 156 Godfather: 92 *Splinter: 74 SaucyKaz: 69 Fat4all: 64 Kitsunelaine: 62 Girlofgotham: 52 saenima: 44 Aeleus: 43 B-Dubs: 41 Stuart444: 40 BronsonLee: 33 Kalor: 30 Z-Beat: 29 WhySoDevious: 29 Muffin: 27 StanleyPalmtree: 25 turmoil7: 18 flatearthpandas: 17 Kopite: 15 LuxCommander: 13 weemadarthur: 10 Zippedpinhead: 2

Current Countdown:



Click here to go to the Vote Tool!
 
Oct 26, 2017
2,344
Didn't someone get a drink delivered to them? Or was that another confusing post that wasn't actually a claim?
Got like four more pages to catch up on but it's time to get ready for work so it'll be a while. Just addressing this, no one passed me anything in the game. I had literally been gifted a bottle of sake irl and was cracking it open.
 

Kalor

Resettlement Advisor
Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,634
These people don't have an active vote. (Excluding Koplite naturally).

*Splinter
Fat4all
BronsonLee
Z-Beat
WhySoDevious
StanleyPalmtree
weemadarthur

Also there's a bug since the automated "Not Voting" list on the vote tool is still listing Grizzly despite him appearing in the Dead section.
 

Kalor

Resettlement Advisor
Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,634
So I said some quotes stuck out about Turmoil when I voted for him.

The first thing that stuck out was that they have a pattern of just following other people.

Dark room turned out to be something beneficial for us(at least so far) and several who voted for it are now voting for purple so

MOVE:Purple Room

It's better to pick a room fast and focus on the lynch votes it until we have a better overall idea of the game I think
There's no thought put into the room choice, just doing what everyone else is and forgetting about it. They also say that they're going to follow Hecht, but Hecht hasn't even voted for Wee, just voiced some weariness over her.

I kind of want to follow Hecht for the time being

Vote:weemadarthur

I was feeling iffy about wee and she is one of the final Bear voters(splinter, turmoil, aeleus, WSD, wee, Kaz, heck, kitsu, fep) and frankly rn the one who looks the worst to me taking into account the claim and my town reads(Kaz, fep). I think kitsu and WSD are confused town

I flip flop on bdubs and muffin from null to lean scum, rn I think I would see muffin gone first but that is just guts
Secondly is their shifting position on Lux, and one that isn't really explained. This first quote is from right before Day 1 ended.

I will switch to Lux
They were voting for Grizzly at the time and were clearly willing to switch to Lux to prevent a tie, which is fine. Nothing wrong with that. The two of them were in his top scum and they switched position during the day. However, then we look at their first mention of their feelings on Lux on day 2.

I lean town on Lux, Kaz, and a little less town on GF. I lean scum on Stu

During D1 Hecht voted for Lux, Kaz and Bear(he didn't vote for GF)

So

VOTE:Hecht

I'm also interested in lynching Stu
There's two points about this quote in particular that stand out. Like the Wee vote, they rely on voting data rather than their actual reads on the person. Then all of a sudden they now think Lux is town, despite finding them suspicious at the end of the previous day. There's no explanation of why, they just shift position and never explain it. They also are weary of Stu, and iterate this multiple times, but hasn't voted for them once today. Instead they base their votes on vote data which is flawed, with the assumptions that they make. Like with the Hecht vote, he votes for him because he voted for three people. One of them are confirmed town but the other two aren't. He apparently town reads Lux and Kaz but they aren't confirmed by any stretch. He uses that assumption about all three being town to assume that Hecht is scum voting for three town, but for all we know Lux is scum.

Yes, using your town reads to narrow down your suspects is part of the game, and a necessary one. But here it just seems to go a step further than that. I think Turmoil was throwing shade at his scum teammate, Lux, on day 1 and now on day 2 they are trying to sweep that under the rug now that they seem safe. Maybe I'm way off base, but it's only day 2 and there's bound to be some clue in the chaos.
 

Hecht

These are my salad days
Administrator
Oct 24, 2017
4,262
I don't understand the push for turmoil now. Sure, later they may be an issue, but I feel like we have better targets for now. Kalor what are your thoughts on the people in the running?
 
Oct 25, 2017
461
Austin, TX
I think you're reading too much into turmoil's play Kalor, it looks more like dumb town to me, and that has nothing to do with his reads on me. For the record, I was typing this out well before Hecht's post.
 

Kalor

Resettlement Advisor
Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,634
I don't understand the push for turmoil now. Sure, later they may be an issue, but I feel like we have better targets for now. Kalor what are your thoughts on the people in the running?
I have no interest in lynching Godfather right now, same with Kaz. I could go for Lux but for me that's more of an information lynch rather than one that's grounded in evidence. I need to look into B-Dubs. I'm only bringing Turmoil up now just to get my thoughts out there while I remember them.
 

Fat4all

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
16,859
bork land
i thought a hangover would be the only mess i'd wake up to today

i gave *Splinter their double vote today, and I have one more double vote i can give away in the game

im a 2-shot town pulpit

my ability doesn't mention anything about a vote being taken from another player, so i didn't have anything to do with Kopite getting screwed over

if there is a vote block of some kind, I imagine its scum more than neutral/town

I'm not sure if I buy that scum knows what all the rooms do, I'd imagine that would make it too easy for them to fuck over town, I think they just got extremely lucky today
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,158
B-dubs is basically just sheeping kopite right now.
i thought a hangover would be the only mess i'd wake up to today

i gave *Splinter their double vote today, and I have one more double vote i can give away in the game

im a 2-shot town pulpit

my ability doesn't mention anything about a vote being taken from another player, so i didn't have anything to do with Kopite getting screwed over

if there is a vote block of some kind, I imagine its scum more than neutral/town

I'm not sure if I buy that scum knows what all the rooms do, I'd imagine that would make it too easy for them to fuck over town, I think they just got extremely lucky today
Why claim? We didn't really need this info right now. Nobody doubted *splinter at the moment.
 

turmoil7

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,807
Guess that means splinter having a double vote today is NAI(ie scum can't steal the vote of a townie to give it to someone else)

If dog is telling the truth, obv