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The Mansion Mafia - Hold on tightly to your secrets

weemadarthur

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,107
Yeah turmoil, I know you were scum reading me on day two, and you should reread. But you should also take a moment to do some proper vote analysis.

Here was the status of the vote count at the time I voted:
==== DAY 1 VOTES ====
Day Start

Godfather (6 votes)
Muffin - #842
Kitsunelaine - #1,379
Kopite - #1,519
saenima - #1,535
BronsonLee - #1,562
B-Dubs - #1,601

LuxCommander (5 votes)
StanleyPalmtree - #1,136
Zippedpinhead - #1,360
Godfather - #1,552
Kalor - #1,559
Z-Beat - #1,603

Grizzly (4 votes)
*Splinter - #925
turmoil7 - #1,568
Aeleus - #1,592
Hecht - #1,604

SaucyKaz (3 votes)
Stuart444 - #1,170
Grizzly - #1,173
LuxCommander - #1,184

Stuart444 (2 votes)
SaucyKaz - #1,289
WhySoDevious - #1,506

*Splinter (1 votes)
Melonrabbit - #498

Muffin (1 votes)
weemadarthur - #1,278

WhySoDevious (1 votes)
Girlofgotham - #1,071

B-Dubs (1 votes)
flatearthpandas - #293

Post Counts:
Grizzly: 150 Stuart444: 134 Godfather: 116 Hecht: 99 BronsonLee: 97 Kitsunelaine: 87 Fat4all: 83 B-Dubs: 74 SaucyKaz: 66 saenima: 61 *Splinter: 56 Z-Beat: 52 Girlofgotham: 52 weemadarthur: 50 Muffin: 47 Kalor: 39 Zippedpinhead: 38 Kopite: 37 WhySoDevious: 32 flatearthpandas: 26 Aeleus: 24 StanleyPalmtree: 22 LuxCommander: 21 turmoil7: 12 Melonrabbit: 6
Current Countdown:


Click here to go to the Vote Tool!
gah dammit dubs

Vote: LuxCommander
Then I voted when the score was
Godfather - 6
Luxcommander - 6 (Heckt having moved here)
Grizzly - 4 (Hecht having moved off and whysodevious on)
SaucyKaz - 3
vote: grizzly

keep this quantity pressure up for just a few more minutes.
And I stated that I thought I brought Grizzly into a tie for second; I may have not have seen those last two votes, so call it 6-5-4.

To believe I’m scum you have to believe that I’m moving, on day one, to protect my roleblocker - but that I for some reason am not willing to put a vote on godfather to put him into the lead/into a further lead, which can often have the effect of getting other people to join in as their opinions are validated.

Instead I took a third-place person into second (although other votes tying #1 may have done it for me). Then I sat on it for the rest of the day.

If I were going to push a distant third, I in addition to disregarding the ease of voting godfather, would be giving up this amazing option:

VOTE: SaucyKaz

Going dark again for about an hour, I'll be back ASAP. Dropping off a guitar to the shop.
My roleblock has disappeared, but my bulletproof was available for busing. And which role would not only be better for the team, but also gain me and my absent roleblock hella town cred? Aiming for Kaz would do that. And probably be easy enough to push given that so many people thought he was scummy. And that’s if I’m not willing to just...vote out ANY given town.

Please consider those things as you reread.

Now, I’m not knocking you. You subbed in, and I don’t think you were here at the time. But a quick read disregarding all available information is not the way to go.
 

weemadarthur

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,107
1. Stuart444 - lean town
2. B-Dubs - null
3. Kalor - lean town
4. saenima. - town
5. Muffin - lean scum
6. Z-Beat. - currently null
7. *Splinter - probably town
8. turmoil7. - currently null

Gotta read people as individuals to adjust this and stuff. I’ve explained my reads on splinter and turmoil, i’ll get to the rest.
Oh, my read on saenima is because he (he is the right pronoun right?) is analyzing and trying to solve and some of his logic is very good.
 

turmoil7

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,807
saenima what do you think of hecht saying he was informed that his vest was used? passive bulletproof don't usually work like that, although it is completely up to the gamerunner's discretion and there in no consensus on it, so it could perfectly be true.

Godfather was an investigator with some protective side dish

Can Hecht be a protector with a little of investigative spice?(the investigative side being he knows for sure when he is shot)

Do you think Hecht gambited on making his claim less believable?

Kalor what do you think of this? It is something worth to look into?
 

turmoil7

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,807
What are our claimed/confirmed roles right now? I think I missed a few
Dead town:
Lovers(during the day phase) Kopite - Aeleus, surviving one turns into roleblock in only one is killed at night
Self Watcher 1 shot Bulletproof, saw someone visiting him on d1 - Godfather
Ordinary - Grizzly, FEP

Alive players
Turmoil - Sleepwalker
Hecht - vest protective thing
Fat4all - double vote giver... pulpit was it?

Dead Scum
Kaz - BP
Lux - 3 shot roleblocker

I think that's all?
 
Oct 25, 2017
8,725
Dead town:
Lovers(during the day phase) Kopite - Aeleus, surviving one turns into roleblock in only one is killed at night
Self Watcher 1 shot Bulletproof, saw someone visiting him on d1 - Godfather
Ordinary - Grizzly, FEP

Alive players
Turmoil - Sleepwalker
Hecht - vest protective thing
Fat4all - double vote giver... pulpit was it?

Dead Scum
Kaz - BP
Lux - 3 shot roleblocker

I think that's all?
Ah, gotcha.
 
Oct 25, 2017
8,010
saenima what do you think of hecht saying he was informed that his vest was used? passive bulletproof don't usually work like that, although it is completely up to the gamerunner's discretion and there in no consensus on it, so it could perfectly be true.

Godfather was an investigator with some protective side dish

Can Hecht be a protector with a little of investigative spice?(the investigative side being he knows for sure when he is shot)

Do you think Hecht gambited on making his claim less believable?

Kalor what do you think of this? It is something worth to look into?
Regarding the BP mechanics i admit i'm not fully sure how they work. I'm going from wiki and little knowledge beyond that. He could be lying about having the vest, or he could have a scum vest and be lying about being shot at or how it works. He could even be a neutral that was shot. He could be lying about the number of shots he could bear. What i do know almost for sure is that there is a lie somewhere in there. The story he has told makes no sense to me.

As for being a protector, that would mean town. I just don't read him as town in any way due to all i've brought up. Is it possible? Sure. I will say something right now though. If he's some sort of town protector i hope he gets me lynched.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,627
Regarding hecht (as he seems to be the real hot button topic rn) im very iffy but will be doing a proper rereading if him either tonight or tommorrow when im gloriously free of responsibilities
 
Oct 25, 2017
8,010
I also made an ISO on LuxCommander. Apart from a couple of posts mildly defending Hecht that jumped at me for obvious reasons, there was literally nothing else there.

I'll be looking into Devious and Kaz later.
 
Oct 25, 2017
8,010
Why Devious? You mentioned Kaz and Lux who are both dead so why Devious?
Well Devious has been my scummiest read the entire game apart from this Hecht thing. I want to take a closer look to make sure whether i'm on the right track there or not. I still think his Grizzly vote was the one that kickstarted the late push but i want to go look at timelines and his other posts for context. Kaz and Lux are dead scum and i want to find connections.
 
OP
OP
Brazil

Brazil

The Dude of Prophecy
Moderator
Oct 24, 2017
7,014
São Paulo, Brazil
==== DAY 3 VOTES ====
Day Start

Group A

StanleyPalmtree (1 votes)
Stuart444 - #3,870

Hecht (1 votes)
saenima - #3,956

===

Group B

saenima (1 votes)
Hecht - #3,892

Kalor (1 votes)
Kitsunelaine - #3,845

Not voting: *Splinter, Muffin, WhySoDevious, Z-Beat, weemadarthur, Zippedpinhead, turmoil7, Fat4all, Kalor, BronsonLee, Girlofgotham, B-Dubs, StanleyPalmtree

Post Counts:
Stuart444: 71 Hecht: 56 Zippedpinhead: 34 Kitsunelaine: 34 turmoil7: 33 B-Dubs: 30 weemadarthur: 17 Z-Beat: 16 saenima: 14 Kalor: 13 *Splinter: 10 BronsonLee: 9 Fat4all: 8 Girlofgotham: 8 Muffin: 7 StanleyPalmtree: 6 WhySoDevious: 3

Current Countdown:



Click here to go to the Vote Tool!
 

B-Dubs

Oh well, what the hell
Administrator
Oct 25, 2017
11,955
Alright, like I said earlier, blue might be a useful room. It's the only one we can't figure out based on our current information, but it does sound like it could do something very useful. So I'm going to vote for it.

move: blue
 

Hecht

These are my salad days
Administrator
Oct 24, 2017
4,262
Bear with me. This is a long one.

I know that Hecht has already made his preemptive defense that the scum team is gonna pounce on him today and try to lynch him but hey, town can do that as well.

Hecht day 1:

Early seeds planted on me and Dubs.

When asked for reasons, nah.
It was a joke post. I had one game where I outed a lot of scum on D1, I was referencing that. At the time I just picked names out of a hat, basically.

The Grizzly Train officially starts. No reasons either.

The next few are a doozy:

That's a lot of Grizzly votes. Almost like trying to keep a narrative going that everyone is voting Grizz left and right. Those many votes can't be wrong, right?
I explained this. Grizz was grasping at what seemed like straws at the time. A common scum tactic on D1 is to nitpick something to death and try for a mislynch - I thought Grizzly was doing that. Was I wrong? Sure.

And then, literally on the last minute of the day. Nah let's go with a tie maybe.
With the vote tool down, I thought fep had tied the vote, so I tried to get a last minute vote in to prevent a tie. Regardless, my vote wouldn't have tied it. Try again.

Hecht day 2:

Back to Dubs. Still nothing read wise.

Oh so it's guts. Ok then:

And here comes the claim:

Kaz immediately buys into it:
Yep, he was the only one. Nobody else did. At all.
Also he probably was the one that tried to kill the first night, since he was only Bulletproof. I assume the other mafia members have more useful things to do, like Lux's Roleblock.

This right here makes no sense. At all:

I asked this and then let it go at the time:

But after GF's flip i'm thinking scum shot him and not Hecht. In comes Hecht during the day with the fake claim that no one can really disprove without a lynch. A lot of town lean reads follow that hinge exclusively on believing a claim that is beneficial to scum and ultimately hurts town. I mean, i'm no expert, but if i were an X-BP townie and scum wasted a shot on me you can bet your ass i'd keep my mouth shut and hope for seconds. What i wouldn't do would be announce to scum i had more vest to go around so they could go shoot somewhere else, like say, the town watcher. Which misteriously died despite having BP as well.

This claim stinks no matter how you look at it.

More to come.
If scum targets someone and they don't die, they have two options. Assume it's a doctor or roleblocker, in which case they don't know what happened or who targeted them. Now, since I claimed BP, they know what happened.

I'll admit I took a gamble there. I claimed multi-shot BP/vests.

I only had one.

My having a BP strongly suggests the inclusion of a strongman.

I had hoped that it would bait a strong kill if scum was dumb enough to believe that I had more than one. It's incredibly rare for anyone to have multiples. With my vest gone, hopefully they'd try to strong-kill me, which means that they weren't using it on anyone else. Now obviously I didn't know that GF had a BP as well, or else I may have done something different. I don't know.

I guarantee 100% that GF was not targeted for a kill the first night unless there was also a vig that targeted them. Looking back at the reads during D1, I had a fair amount of people putting me in the "lean town" category (of those that provided reads, of course). Because of those, I was confident that I would be targeted N1 (not to mention that I tend to get shot early on when I'm Town. People don't like me sticking around).

And it's back to Dubs i guess. Why give reasons:

Then comes these exchanges:

Apparently looking at smaller numbers of people is more important than looking at a pretty obvious train meant to deflect from scum. When i suggested we should be looking at all the trains, the answer i get is no. Just a dismissive no. I get that's probably just Hecht being tired of interacting with me at the time. I get it, i was being pushy. But town should be pushy. Town Hecht should be interested in finding out what the hell was up with the Grizzly train, not trying to guide the game towards the other trains.
This is just common sense and the fact that you're arguing for it hard is suspect. Scum can easily hide off-train, especially on D1. Trying to "save" a member of the scum team, even if it's something great like a roleblocker, is a huge fucking risk. Lo and behold, Kaz and Lux were not on the train. Shocker.

And now it's on to me:

Unless they were protecting a 3-shot roleblocker ofc:

More of dubs and me. Just to see which one sticks:
Sure, I had multiple suspects. Hence both of you. At some point I'd love to see BOTH of your flips, but if one happens before the other, I don't really care the order.

Worried about Kaz?
God forbid I ask people to summarize something.

More of the same down there. There are literally no reasons given. Ever. Only vague shade.
My top two suspects split their vote within 3 minutes of each other? Yeah, looks suspect to me. I imagine this was the convo:
saenima: "Hey Dubs, my role is more powerful, and they'll probably be looking at the fep votes tomorrow if Kaz is lynched."
Dubs: "You're right. I'll vote fep, you vote Kaz. They couldn't possibly connect us both when we vote differently!"

Voting to lynch town. Again:
Kaz was DOA. fep was the only other major candidate at the time. Two flips is better than one, and it didn't look like Kaz was going to show up.

And finally.

Here we go again. Hecht literally gives more of a reason for first time reading Z-Beat as scum with the coasting accusation than he has given for the two players he's been pushing for the entire game. Remarkable.

And here the obvious preemptive defense starts, laying it pretty thick:

At this point i'm pretty convinced that Hecht is scum and will be pushing for my lynch today. He has the ball rolling already.
I don't have any investigative abilities, and anyone who does hasn't provided any info. So of course my reads are going to be on gut and votes. I explained why I was suspect of the people voting for me. You can call it self-preservation, but lynching scum helps everyone else too. The reasoning I have is that I was shot, scum got worried, and decided to throw shade at me in order to get rid of me that way.

This isn't that hard, but I appreciate you putting up a fight. Makes it more fun.
 

Fat4all

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
16,859
bork land
I’d like to revisit briefly the day 1 Grizzly vote:

Grizzly (9 votes)
*Splinter - #925
turmoil7 - #1,568
Aeleus - #1,592
WhySoDevious - #1,617
weemadarthur - #1,626
SaucyKaz - #1,652
Hecht - #1,670
Kitsunelaine - #1,671
flatearthpandas - #1,696

One scum was already found in here, and it was the push that saved Lux. Do we think there’s more than one scum hiding here besides Kaz? Kaz voted relatively late compared to some of the other votes.

Would it be too obvious for more than one scum to pressure this Grizzly lynch, or was a scum parked on it already when the ball started rolling?

I’m not so certain myself. I think scum would want to avoid a lynch of a scum PR day one, so I suspect at least one other scum is on this list.
 

Hecht

These are my salad days
Administrator
Oct 24, 2017
4,262
Oh that’s right Kaz was on-train, only Lux was off train. I think I was confusing my initial reads of saenima and dubs being off-train