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The Mansion Mafia - Hold on tightly to your secrets

Hecht

These are my salad days
Administrator
Oct 24, 2017
4,265
I’d like to revisit briefly the day 1 Grizzly vote:

Grizzly (9 votes)
*Splinter - #925
turmoil7 - #1,568
Aeleus - #1,592
WhySoDevious - #1,617
weemadarthur - #1,626
SaucyKaz - #1,652
Hecht - #1,670
Kitsunelaine - #1,671
flatearthpandas - #1,696

One scum was already found in here, and it was the push that saved Lux. Do we think there’s more than one scum hiding here besides Kaz? Kaz voted relatively late compared to some of the other votes.

Would it be too obvious for more than one scum to pressure this Grizzly lynch, or was a scum parked on it already when the ball started rolling?

I’m not so certain myself. I think scum would want to avoid a lynch of a scum PR day one, so I suspect at least one other scum is on this list.
I think it’s a good assumption that scum does exist on that list, but at most I would say one more. “Saving” a scum, on D1, even if it’s a PR, is very very very risky
 

BronsonLee

Assistant (to the) Regional Administrator
Moderator
Oct 24, 2017
12,797
I am super sus at the same people on that Grizz list

Devious
Weem
Hecht
Kits

What are the odds that a scum voted for Kaz late Day 2, knowing Kaz wouldn’t be back in time to save themselves, to try and make themselves look better?
High
 

Hecht

These are my salad days
Administrator
Oct 24, 2017
4,265
What are the odds that a scum voted for Kaz late Day 2, knowing Kaz wouldn’t be back in time to save themselves, to try and make themselves look better?
Hmm. Maybe decent, but looking at the last votes, it's Aeleus and turmoil7, who I currently townread. Same with Stuart. It's probably likely that they had votes in place in probably the middle of the pack or off-train. Early on they wouldn't know that Kaz wouldn't be there, so it's unlikely they started that train.
 
Oct 31, 2017
1,881
What are the odds that a scum voted for Kaz late Day 2, knowing Kaz wouldn’t be back in time to save themselves, to try and make themselves look better?
That’s why I asked what were the odds of scum knowing that he wouldn’t be back that day.

Though, to be fair, if I had been around at end of Day2, I would have considered changing my vote to Kaz just so that we didn’t lose one more person that day, like someone suggested.

The odds of FEP and Kaz being both town were higher than one of them being scum.
 
Oct 31, 2017
1,881
By the way, I feel really really sick. I dunno if I’ll go to work tomorrow. If that’s the case, my participation will be low this day.

I’ll still read an try to respond - I just won’t be so quick to do so.
 

B-Dubs

Oh well, what the hell
Administrator
Oct 25, 2017
12,099
How about early FEP? He looked scummy at the time but was barely an option until people started jumping on that vote.
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,921
Only noticed that when I went back to look at the votes after seeing this:

I’d like to revisit briefly the day 1 Grizzly vote:

Grizzly (9 votes)
*Splinter - #925
turmoil7 - #1,568
Aeleus - #1,592
WhySoDevious - #1,617
weemadarthur - #1,626
SaucyKaz - #1,652
Hecht - #1,670
Kitsunelaine - #1,671
flatearthpandas - #1,696

One scum was already found in here, and it was the push that saved Lux. Do we think there’s more than one scum hiding here besides Kaz? Kaz voted relatively late compared to some of the other votes.

Would it be too obvious for more than one scum to pressure this Grizzly lynch, or was a scum parked on it already when the ball started rolling?

I’m not so certain myself. I think scum would want to avoid a lynch of a scum PR day one, so I suspect at least one other scum is on this list.
when I looked at the votes after Kaz.
 

Hecht

These are my salad days
Administrator
Oct 24, 2017
4,265
On that Grizz vote:





Based on the order of these posts, Hecht tied the vote between Lux and Grizzly.

Yes Kits and Feps (who we know is town now) were the last two on Grizzly but Hecht based on this is the one that tied the votes which would have helped save Lux.

Just something to think about.
I had a couple votes like that. I wouldn’t want the day to actually end in a tie, but forcing a tie earlier, before there’s a chance of turbo or day end, forces people to make decisions.
 

Hecht

These are my salad days
Administrator
Oct 24, 2017
4,265
Actually looking back that was when the vote count and what Brazil was saying was screwed up. If you look at fireblend’s vote count it was 8-6, then there are no votes until my vote. I didn’t think I was tying that one
 

Hecht

These are my salad days
Administrator
Oct 24, 2017
4,265
Shit now I’m confused. Trying to think wtf was running through my head. 8-6 would’ve tied it, but that was wrong. I knew fep was around so I want to say I was forcing him to choose
 

B-Dubs

Oh well, what the hell
Administrator
Oct 25, 2017
12,099
Shit now I’m confused. Trying to think wtf was running through my head. 8-6 would’ve tied it, but that was wrong. I knew fep was around so I want to say I was forcing him to choose
You jumped over, then he did his little shuffle, then you tried to get back on Lux before the day ended when you noticed. If memory serves.
 

Hecht

These are my salad days
Administrator
Oct 24, 2017
4,265
You jumped over, then he did his little shuffle, then you tried to get back on Lux before the day ended when you noticed. If memory serves.
I thought fep tied it, and I couldn’t fix that tie unless I moved off of Grizz
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,921
Well the thing is, it was 4 minutes to the end of the day, forcing quick decisions like that is what got feps looking guilty.

It's why I'm not saying you're scum just for this alone, but it's something for people to keep in mind I feel.
 

Hecht

These are my salad days
Administrator
Oct 24, 2017
4,265
Well the thing is, it was 4 minutes to the end of the day, forcing quick decisions like that is what got feps looking guilty.

It's why I'm not saying you're scum just for this alone, but it's something for people to keep in mind I feel.
Well the thing is, it was 4 minutes to the end of the day, forcing quick decisions like that is what got feps looking guilty.

It's why I'm not saying you're scum just for this alone, but it's something for people to keep in mind I feel.
i didn’t have anything particularly against fep, I would’ve done that for anyone who was waiting for the last minute to vote (though granted he tried voting but for some reason his votes weren’t counting).
 

Hecht

These are my salad days
Administrator
Oct 24, 2017
4,265
Also if I was scum, lux could’ve been an infinite bulletproof godfather roleblocking role cop and I’m not gonna pull shit last second to save his ass on freaking D1
 

Kitsunelaine

My favorite cake is pie
Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,303
Also if I was scum, lux could’ve been an infinite bulletproof godfather roleblocking role cop and I’m not gonna pull shit last second to save his ass on freaking D1
Considering feps was a late-day bus (as far as I recall) isn't that what you're accusing of scum doing?

I think it’s a good assumption that scum does exist on that list, but at most I would say one more. “Saving” a scum, on D1, even if it’s a PR, is very very very risky
I mean you're prefacing your reasons for suspicion with "I don't think anybody would do this" and to me that's a read that stinks. Not as in a prejorative, but as in "This smells really bad and I don't think I want to know what's underneath it"
 

Hecht

These are my salad days
Administrator
Oct 24, 2017
4,265
Considering feps was a late-day bus (as far as I recall) isn't that what you're accusing of scum doing?



I mean you're prefacing your reasons for suspicion with "I don't think anybody would do this" and to me that's a read that stinks. Not as in a prejorative, but as in "This smells really bad and I don't think I want to know what's underneath it"
I don’t know if I’d call feps’ lynch a “bus.” The scenario at the end of D1 did provide people with ammo, unfortunately.

As for the other part, I’m just saying what I would do. To me it would be a bad play, and I’d wager to many players they’d feel the same. There’s no reason to stick your neck out for a scum teammate and risk being associated with saving them, no matter what their PR is, that early in the game.
 

Kitsunelaine

My favorite cake is pie
Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,303
I don’t know if I’d call feps’ lynch a “bus.” The scenario at the end of D1 did provide people with ammo, unfortunately.

As for the other part, I’m just saying what I would do. To me it would be a bad play, and I’d wager to many players they’d feel the same. There’s no reason to stick your neck out for a scum teammate and risk being associated with saving them, no matter what their PR is, that early in the game.
Yeah but in having reads like this you're achnowledging you're suspecting people for reasons you think are dumb. How do you think that's going to convince anyone
 

Hecht

These are my salad days
Administrator
Oct 24, 2017
4,265
Also I have a list at the top of the page about the people on the Grizz train. And pretty much everyone on that list I read as null or better except for wee (kits being the null)
 

Hecht

These are my salad days
Administrator
Oct 24, 2017
4,265
Yeah but in having reads like this you're achnowledging you're suspecting people for reasons you think are dumb. How do you think that's going to convince anyone
Wait what?

I don’t think you are following me. I DO NOT think the people late on Grizz vote are scum, because I think that is a dumb move.
 

B-Dubs

Oh well, what the hell
Administrator
Oct 25, 2017
12,099
Considering feps was a late-day bus (as far as I recall) isn't that what you're accusing of scum doing?



I mean you're prefacing your reasons for suspicion with "I don't think anybody would do this" and to me that's a read that stinks. Not as in a prejorative, but as in "This smells really bad and I don't think I want to know what's underneath it"
I was hesitant to move on to FEPs early in the phase, after the flip, simply because I didn't think it would take off. That said, there's more than enough in his actions to justify flipping him at that point. Especially knowing Kaz was likely going to flip as well.

I do think we should look at the early and mid votes on FEPs though (I say this knowing I am among the mid votes) as there could be scum hiding in there, trying to get the heat off Kaz with a more obvious target.
 

turmoil7

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,808
Catching up, but heck your reads are so self centered, honestly I think nobody gives a damn about you
And saenima the new player is into the meta of going after you? Sure you can always say his scummates told him, but honestly, scum doesn't babysit reads for their teammates in my experience, not on d2
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,390
My top two suspects split their vote within 3 minutes of each other? Yeah, looks suspect to me. I imagine this was the convo:
saenima: "Hey Dubs, my role is more powerful, and they'll probably be looking at the fep votes tomorrow if Kaz is lynched."
Dubs: "You're right. I'll vote fep, you vote Kaz. They couldn't possibly connect us both when we vote differently!"
Hecht pls. I can't imagine this conversation has happened in any game ever run. Sometimes people just vote at roughly the same time.
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,921
I still think Hecht is town FWIW
Eh, I'm really doubting it right now. He's been awfully wrong and self centered and with GFs flip which includes a BP role (and GF himself said to keep an eye on Hecht before dying)

His voting record isn't great either.

He's either a REALLY wrong townie or scum pretending to get lots of things wrong and BSing with his BP claim.

at this point, I want to see his flip.
 

turmoil7

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,808
Eh, I'm really doubting it right now. He's been awfully wrong and self centered and with GFs flip which includes a BP role (and GF himself said to keep an eye on Hecht before dying)

His voting record isn't great either.

He's either a REALLY wrong townie or scum pretending to get lots of things wrong and BSing with his BP claim.

at this point, I want to see his flip.
If he is lying(I don't think he is) we can get him anytime, we will know more of the setup in following days and his claim has him cornered, we need to explore other options
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,921
If he is lying(I don't think he is) we can get him anytime, we will know more of the setup in following days and his claim has him cornered, we need to explore other options
Okay, let's see who I'm willing to vote for:

Group A:
2. Zippedpinhead
5. Kitsunelaine
7. Hecht
8. StanleyPalmtree

Zipped because of his weirdness early game.

Stan because of his Feps vote.

Kit because their voting record hasn't been great either (though I can understand the "I don't like punishing people for real life" post when she voted for Grizzly)

Hecht because of what I said above.

I won't be considering any other lynches today.
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,390
*Splinter What is your take on Group B right now?
I trust you, and maaaybe Stuart. Saenima I can't decide - they're playing well but it's nothing I can say is scum or town. I'm kinda hoping Hecht flips scum just so that I can move them back into a town read.

The other 4 are pretty much my most unknown, they all range from null to scum lean. Someone (I think you?) had a decent argument for Kalor being town, I guess.